National Air Pollution Control Programme, 2019, Estonia ... · national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants (hereinafter referred to as the ‘NEC Directive’)4. The aim

National Air Pollution Control Programme, 2019, Estonia

Courtesy Translation in English Provided by the

Translation Services of the European Commission

2

Approved by Minister of the Environment

Order No 1-2/19/276 of 29 March 2019

MINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT

National Programme for Reduction of Emissions of Certain

Atmospheric Pollutants 2020-2030

Tallinn 2019

3

Title of the programme

National Programme for Reduction of Emissions

of Certain Atmospheric Pollutants

2020-2030

Date 29 March 2019

Member State Estonia

Name of the authority responsible for drawing up

the programme Ministry of the Environment

Programme drawn up by Estonian Environmental Research Centre

Telephone number of the responsible authority (+372) 626 2802

E-mail address of the responsible authority [email protected]

Link to the website where the programme is

published

https://www.envir.ee/et/eesmargid-

tegevused/valisohukaitse/ohusaasteainete-

vahendamise-programm-ovp

Links to websites for consultation on the

programme

http://www.klab.ee/projektid/teatavate-

ohusaasteainete-heitkoguste-vahendamise-

riiklik-programm-aastateks-2020-2030/

Preparation of the programme

was funded by

ENVIRONMENTAL INVESTMENT CENTRE

mailto:[email protected]://www.envir.ee/et/eesmargid-tegevused/valisohukaitse/ohusaasteainete-vahendamise-programm-ovphttps://www.envir.ee/et/eesmargid-tegevused/valisohukaitse/ohusaasteainete-vahendamise-programm-ovphttps://www.envir.ee/et/eesmargid-tegevused/valisohukaitse/ohusaasteainete-vahendamise-programm-ovphttp://www.klab.ee/projektid/teatavate-ohusaasteainete-heitkoguste-vahendamise-riiklik-programm-aastateks-2020-2030/http://www.klab.ee/projektid/teatavate-ohusaasteainete-heitkoguste-vahendamise-riiklik-programm-aastateks-2020-2030/http://www.klab.ee/projektid/teatavate-ohusaasteainete-heitkoguste-vahendamise-riiklik-programm-aastateks-2020-2030/

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Contents

Abbreviations, explanations .......................................................................................................... 5

1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 6

2. Inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the period 1990-2016 ........................................... 8

3. Overall impact of the measures envisaged in the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction

Programme ......................................................................................................................... 19

3.1. ENERGY SECTOR (SHORT DESCRIPTION, SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT) ............................... 21

3.1.1. Measures of the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme and their impact

............................................................................................................................. 22

3.2. TRANSPORT SECTOR (SHORT DESCRIPTION, SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT) .......................... 26

3.2.1. Measures of the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme and their impact ............................................................................................................................. 26

3.3. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES (SHORT DESCRIPTION, SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT) .................... 31


3.4. SOLVENTS (SHORT DESCRIPTION, SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT) ......................................... 34


3.5. AGRICULTURE (SHORT DESCRIPTION, SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT) ................................... 37


............................................................................................................................. 38

4. Economic efficiency of the measures envisaged in the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme ......................................................................................................................... 40

5. Summary of the analysis of long-range transboundary air pollution ................................. 44

6. Monitoring of the effectiveness of the measures to be implemented under the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme, and related development needs ............. 45

5

Abbreviations, explanations

BAT best available techniques

BAU business-as-usual scenario

CLRTAP Convention on Long- range Transboundary Air Pollution

EEA European Environment Agency

EMEP Cooperative Programme for the Monitoring and Evaluation of the

Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (European

Monitoring and Evaluation Programme)

ESDP 2030 Energy Sector Development Plan 2030

ESR Effort Sharing Regulation

EU European Union

GHG greenhouse gas

GPCP 2050 General Principles of Climate Policy 2050

IEA Industrial Emissions Act

NEC Directive Directive (EU) 2016/2284 of the European Parliament and of the

Council on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric

pollutants

NFR code signifying a sector or sub-sector in inventories of pollutants

(nomenclature for reporting)

RAS reduction action scenario

Tier 1 / Tier 2 / Tier 3 methodologies conforming to EMEP/EEA 2016 guidebook

WHO World Health Organization

Atmospheric pollutants

BC black carbon

HCB hexachlorobenzene

NH3 ammonia

NOx nitrogen oxides

PAH polyaromatic hydrocarbons

PCB polycyclic biphenyls

PCDD/PCDF dioxins and furans

PM2.5 fine particulate matter, i.e. particles of less than 2.5 µm in diameter

SO2 sulphur dioxide

TSP particulates

VOC non-methane volatile organic compounds

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1. Introduction

In December 2013, the European Commission published its Communication ‘A Clean Air Programme

for Europe’, which set out the strategic objectives for improving air quality and updated air pollution

reduction targets for 2020 and 2030. With a view to achieving the objectives set out in the

Communication ‘A Clean Air Programme for Europe’, the Clean Air Policy Package was adopted in

2016 consisting of the following:

Gothenburg Protocol to the CLRTAP to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone, and the 2012 amendments thereto (hereinafter referred to as the ‘Gothenburg

Protocol’)1;

Communication ‘A Clean Air Programme for Europe’2;

Directive (EU) 2015/2193 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from medium combustion plants3;

Directive (EU) 2016/2284 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants (hereinafter referred to as the ‘NEC

Directive’)4.

The aim of the European Clean Air Policy Package is to reduce, by 2030, the harmful effects of air

pollution on human health by 40 % compared to 2005 through the proposed measures, as well as to

reduce the environmental impact of air pollution and improve the level of air quality, bringing it closer

to the levels recommended by the WHO guidelines5. In addition, the measures to be taken under the

Clean Air Policy Package are expected to produce the following results by 2030 compared to the current

situation2:

avoid 58,000 premature deaths;

save 123,000 km2 of ecosystems from excessive nitrogen load;

save and conserve 56,000 km2 of protected Natura 2000 areas;

save 19,000 km2 of forest ecosystems from acidification.

Poor air quality is the number one cause of premature deaths across the EU and has a higher impact than

road traffic accidents. In addition to the damaging effects on human health, poor air quality also

damages ecosystems5.

Implementing the Clean Air Policy Package will help improve air quality for all EU citizens and reduce

healthcare costs for governments. Implementing the package will also benefit industry, as measures to

reduce air pollution should boost innovation and enhance the EU’s competitiveness in the field of green

technologies.

1 Gothenburg Protocol [www] http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/multi_h1.html) (19.03.2019) 2 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions

‘A Clean Air Programme for Europe’, COM(2013) 918 final, 18.12.2013 Brussels [www] http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-18155-2013-

INIT/en/pdf. (19 March 2019) 3 Directive (EU) 2015/2193 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 November 2015 on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air

from medium combustion plants. [www] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32015L2193&lrom=en. (19 March 2019) 4 Directive (EU) 2016/2284 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 December 2016 on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric

pollutants, amending Directive 2003/35/EC and repealing Directive 2001/81/EC. [www] https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-

content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32016L2284&from=EN. (19 March 2019) 5 WHO, Air quality guidelines - global update 2005 [www] https://www.who.int/phe/health topics/outdoorair/outdoorair aqg/en/.

http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/multi_h1.htmlhttp://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-18155-2013-INIT/en/pdfhttp://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-18155-2013-INIT/en/pdfhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32015L2193&lrom=enhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32016L2284&from=ENhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32016L2284&from=ENhttps://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/outdoorair_aqg/en/

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The NEC Directive, which is part of the European Clean Air Policy Package, provides for the

commitments of all Member States to reduce atmospheric pollutant emissions by 2020 and 2030

compared to 2005 (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1. Commitments to reduce emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants established by the NEC

Directive for Estonia

Pollutant Reduction

target 2020, %

Reduction

target 2025, %*

Reduction

target 2030, %

NOx 18 24 30

VOC 10 19 28

SO2 32 50 68

NH3 1 1 1

PM2.5 15 28 41

* Recommended target according to linear reduction trajectory

The commitments to reduce the emissions of atmospheric pollutants set for 2020 are the same as those

internationally agreed by EU Member States during the review of the Gothenburg Protocol in 2012. The

NEC Directive, which entered into force in 2016, transposes the targets set by the Gothenburg Protocol

for 2020 into EU law and establishes additional national emission reduction commitments for 2030. To

achieve the planned targets, the EU Member States must draw up, adopt and implement a national

programme for reduction of the emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants for the years 2020-2030

(hereinafter referred to as the ‘Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme’) in accordance with the

requirements of the NEC Directive. All sectors, including agriculture, where the reduction of the emissions of atmospheric pollutants has so far been the slowest, must contribute to the effective

implementation of the policy.

This Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme includes an overview of the opportunities and

potential for reduction of atmospheric pollutant emissions from stationary and mobile emission sources

in Estonia and of the measures to be taken to reduce atmospheric pollutant emissions. The programme is

based on both Estonian and EU legislation, national development plans and sector-specific studies. In

order to draw up the programme, sectoral working groups for energy, industrial processes, transport,

agriculture and solvents were set up and included representatives of relevant stakeholders. The aim of

the working group meetings was to agree on the measures proposed to achieve the objectives of the

Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme and on the projected emissions for 2020 and 2030.

The preparation of the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme was initiated by the Minister of

the Environment Order No. 1-2/18/212 of 28 March 2018. The Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction

Programme is a development document as defined in section 19 (5) of the State Budget Act.

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2. Inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the period 1990-2016

The inventory of atmospheric pollutants6 is based on the requirements of the Convention on Long-range

Transboundary Air Pollution, its eight protocols (hereinafter referred to as ‘CLRTAP’) and the NEC

Directive, according to which each EU Member State is required to draw up and submit inventories and

projections of atmospheric pollutants and informative inventory reports.

CLRTAP covers the following pollutants:

main pollutants: NOx, VOC, SO2, NH3, CO;

particulates: TSP, PM2.5, PM10, BC;

heavy metals: Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn and Se;

persistent organic pollutants: PCDD/PCDF; PAHs (4 pollutants), HCB and PCB.

The Environment Agency is responsible for the inventory of atmospheric pollutants and related

reporting in Estonia. The purpose of the inventory is to provide an overview of the effectiveness of the

Government’s environmental policy and to ensure compliance with national reporting requirements for

atmospheric pollutant emissions. An inventory of atmospheric pollutants and the related report are

drawn up annually, and emission projections are updated every two years.

An inventory of atmospheric pollutants includes sector-specific data on both stationary and diffuse

sources of emissions (Table 2.1, Figure 2.1). The data on emissions of atmospheric pollutants from

stationary emission sources are derived from the annual reports of possessors of the emission sources

(companies) holding an air pollution permit or integrated environmental permit. A diffuse emission

source is a stationary source of emissions not subject to the reporting obligation (agriculture, mobile

emission sources, households). Emissions of atmospheric pollutants from diffuse emission sources have

been calculated on the basis of statistical data and specific emission factors (emissions per unit of

production or energy), using the harmonised methodologies of the European Environment Agency.

Mobile sources of emissions include road, rail, air and domestic maritime transport as well as industrial

and agricultural machinery. Emissions of pollutants into ambient air from road vehicles have been

calculated using the European Environment Agency’s harmonised COPERT 5 model. Emissions of

pollutants from other mobile sources are calculated on the basis of the quantities of fuel used and

specific emission factors.

Calculations of the emissions of pollutants are based on the following:

national methodologies established by the Regulation of the Minister of the Environment;

results of emission measurements in accordance with the terms of environmental permits;

results of studies;

companies’ methodologies that have been agreed with the Environmental Board or

methodologies and specific emission factors set out in the EMEP/EEA Guidebook 20167.

6 Inventory of atmospheric pollutants 2018, Environment Agency — Estonian Informative Inventory Report 1990-2016, Environment Agency, Tallinn 2018. [www]

https://keskkonnaagentuur.ee/sites/default/files/estonia_iir_2018.pdf. (27 February 2019) 7 EMEP/EEA Guidebook 2016 [www] http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/air/emep-eea-air-pollutant-emission-inventory-guidebook. (19 March 2019)

https://keskkonnaagentuur.ee/sites/default/files/estonia_iir_2018.pdfhttp://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/air/emep-eea-air-pollutant-emission-inventory-guidebook

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Table 2.1. Sectors covered by the inventory of atmospheric pollutants

Sector Sub-sector

Energy

Energy industries

Combustion in manufacturing industry

Non-industrial combustion

Mining and distribution of solid fuels

Transport

Road transport Aviation Inland waterways transport Maritime transport Rail transport Other mobile emission sources

Industrial processes

Mineral industry, including construction Road paving with asphalt Chemical industry Metal industry

Pulp, paper and food industries Manufacture and use of other products

Use of solvents

Use of paints Degreasing and dry cleaning Production and processing of chemicals

Other use of solvents

Agriculture Livestock farming

Cultivation

Waste management

Solid waste disposal

Biological treatment of solid waste

Waste incineration

Wastewater handling

As the NEC Directive covers five atmospheric pollutants (SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM2.5), the following

analysis of air pollutant emission trends discusses only the pollutants covered by the NEC Directive.

Table 2.2 and Figure 2.1 set out pollutant emission data from the 2018 inventory of atmospheric

pollutants6.

The analysis shows that, compared to 1990, the emissions of all atmospheric pollutants analysed had

decreased by 2016, mainly due to the restructuring that took place in the economy and ownership

relations after Estonia regained its independence. In recent years, emissions have declined as a result of

compliance with stricter environmental requirements and the introduction of emission capture

equipment and new technologies.

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Table 2.2. Emissions of atmospheric pollutants 1990-2016, kt

Year NOx VOC SO2 NH3 PM2.58

1990 79.018 65.873 272.384 23.863 —

1991 72.889 62.972 250.090 21.761 —

1992 47.630 43.336 190.990 18.211 —

1993 41.736 35.105 155.218 13.305 —

1994 46.956 37.644 150.042 12.721 —

1995 47.946 42.052 115.730 11.852 —

1996 51.936 43.058 124.702 10.655 —

1997 51.246 44.685 115.930 10.776 —

1998 48.682 41.124 104.295 10.558 —

1999 44.032 38.107 97.779 9.678 —

2000 44.877 38.246 97.110 9.329 15.336

2001 46.827 37.195 90.712 9.697 16.257

2002 47.495 36.609 87.037 9.842 16.653

2003 48.414 35.239 100.304 10.761 14.303

2004 45.435 35.458 88.168 10.692 15.445

2005 41.869 33.424 76.241 10.732 14.224

2006 40.535 31.984 69.903 10.649 9.791

2007 44.872 29.396 88.042 11.036 12.712

2008 41.666 27.543 69.475 11.509 11.931

2009 36.533 24.864 54.872 11.020 9.641

2010 42.888 24.396 83.286 11.299 13.930

2011 41.411 24.190 72.716 11.424 18.227

2012 37.819 24.017 40.584 11.861 8.201

2013 35.201 23.428 36.496 11.888 10.807

2014 34.834 23.145 40.816 12.067 7.929

2015 31.566 22.783 31.786 12.603 9.288

2016 31.293 22.461 29.840 11.923 7.484

trend 1990

2016. % -60.4 -65.9 -89.0 -50.0 —

trend 2005-

2016, % -25.3 -32.8 -60.9 11.1 -47.4

8 No emissions of PM2.5 were reported during the years 1990-1999.

11

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Figure 2.1. Emissions of atmospheric pollutants 1990-2016

Nitrogen oxides (NOx)

The main sources of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are the energy sector and mobile emission sources, which

accounted for 50 % and 42 % of total emissions in 2016, respectively. The share of road transport in

emissions from mobile sources is around 59 %. Approximately 8 % of NOx emissions come from

agriculture (Figure 2.2).

Figure 2.2. NOx emissions in 2016 by sectors

Nitrogen oxide emissions decreased by around 60 % between 1990 and 2016. The decline was mainly

due to the restructuring of the economy in the early 1990s, a decrease in energy production and changes

in the transport sector. The use of liquid fuel in transport decreased by 48 % during the period 1990-

1993 (Figure 2.3). The reduction of NOx emissions has also been facilitated by the increase in the share

Energy 49.6 %

Transport

42.5 %

Other emission sources 0.2 %

Agriculture 7.7 %

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of passenger cars with catalysts in recent years, the tightening of technological and emission standards

and a decline in the number of petrol-driven cars. In addition, the introduction of new capture equipment

in oil shale-fired thermal power stations has also contributed to the reduction of emissions.

Energy Transport

Agriculture Other emission sources

NEC Directive target 2020 NEC Directive target 2030

Use of liquid fuel in mobile emission sources

Figure 2.3. NOx emissions during the period 1990-2016 by sectors, and NEC Directive targets

In 2015 already, Estonia met the requirements of the NEC Directive and the Gothenburg Protocol to

CLRTAP, which prescribe an 18 % reduction in NOx emissions by 2020 compared to the level recorded

in 2005. NOx emissions decreased by 25.3 % in 2016 compared to 2005.

Non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOC)

In 2016, the main sources of emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds were the use of

solvents (33.1 %), the energy sector (29 %) and the agricultural sector (20.3 %) (Figure 2.4). The shares

of the transport sector and the industrial sector are lower, 13.3 % and 3.4 %, respectively. The largest

VOC emissions from the energy sector come from the combustion of biomass in households.

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Figure 2.4. VOC emissions in 2016 by sectors

Between 1990 and 2016, emissions of VOC decreased by around 66 % due to a decline in the

production volume of the chemical industry, a decline in the use of motor fuels and an increase in diesel

consumption compared to petrol (Figure 2.5). The decrease of emissions has also been due to a decline

in livestock numbers and in the use of mineral fertilisers in the agricultural sector.

At the same time, emissions of VOC from the energy sector (mainly households) have grown since

1995, as the proportion of combustion of wood and wood waste has increased.

Energy Transport Industrial processes

Use of solvents Agriculture Other emission sources


Figure 2.5. VOC emissions during the period 1990-2016 by sectors, and NEC Directive targets


CLRTAP, which prescribe a 10 % reduction in VOC emissions by 2020 compared to the level recorded

in 2005. VOC emissions decreased by 32.8 % in 2016 compared to 2005.

Energy 29.0 %

Use of solvents 33.1 %

Transport 13.3 %

Other emission sources 0.9 %

Agriculture 20.3°%

Industrial processes 3.4 %

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Sulphur dioxide (SO2)

In 2016, the energy sector (stationary fuel combustion) accounted for 99.6 % of total sulphur dioxide

(SO2) emissions, with approximately 80.8 % being released as a result of fuel combustion. The

proportion of SO2 emissions from the two largest oil shale-based power plants in Narva is around

68.5 % of total SO2 emissions (Figure 2.6).

Use of oil shale Use of heavy fuel oil Use of natural gas

Energy Transport Other emission sources


Figure 2.6. SO2 emissions by sectors and use of fuels during the period 1990-2016, and NEC Directive

targets

Between 1990 and 2016, sulphur dioxide emissions decreased by around 89 % as a result of economic

restructuring in the early 1990s and to a large extent due to reduced energy production. In addition,

opportunities for export of electricity have also declined considerably. The use of local fuels (including

wood and shale oil) and natural gas has increased steadily since 1993, while the share of heavy fuel oil

in the production of thermal energy has declined. The reduction in SO2 emissions has also been caused by the use of low-sulphur liquid fuels in the transport sector as well as in heating. Furthermore, the

introduction of desulphurisation equipment in the oil shale energy industry and the closure of old

production units have caused a decline in SO2 emissions.


CLRTAP, which prescribe a 32 % reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions by 2020 compared to the level

recorded in 2005. SO2 emissions decreased by 60.9 % in 2016 compared to 2005.

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Ammonia (NH3)

The main sources of ammonia (NH3) emissions are in the agricultural sector and the largest quantities

result from manure storage and the use of mineral fertilisers (around 88.6 %, Figure 2.7). Combustion in

the energy sector and the non-industrial combustion sector account for 3.3 % and 3.1 % of total NH3

emissions, respectively. Ammonia emissions from mining and loading of solid fuels (oil shale mining,

blasting) represent approximately 1.2 %; road transport also accounts for 1.2 % of NH3 emissions.

Ammonia emissions from road transport have decreased in recent years due to a decline in the share of

petrol-powered vehicles (11 % between 2010 and 2016) and the introduction of second-generation

catalysts for new passenger cars, which generate less ammonia emissions compared to the first-

generation catalysts. Emissions from all other sectors (manufacturing industry, waste and other mobile

sources of emissions) account for approximately 2.5 % of total ammonia emissions.

Figure 2.7. NH3 emissions in 2016 by sectors

Emissions of ammonia decreased by 50 % between 1990 and 2016 due to a decline in livestock numbers

and in the use of fertilisers (Figure 2.8).

Mining and distribution of

solid fuels 1.2 %

Transport 1.2 %

Industrial processes 0.6 %

Energy, stationary

combustion 7.8 %

Other emission sources

0.6 %

Agriculture 88.6 %

16

Energy Agriculture

Other emission sources NEC Directive target for 2020 and 2030

Bovine animals Pigs

Figure 2.8. NH3 emissions by sectors and livestock numbers during the period 1990-2016, and NEC

Directive targets

The current state of the inventory of atmospheric pollutants suggests that if the current trends continue,

Estonia may fail to comply with the requirements of the NEC Directive and the Gothenburg Protocol to

CLRTAP. In order to limit emissions, additional measures are needed.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)

In 2016, combustion in the energy sector was the main source of emissions (83.4 %) of fine particulate

matter (PM2.5), with 26.5 % of fine particles emitted from the energy industry, 19.5 % from industrial

combustion and 37.2 % from non-industrial combustion. The distribution of PM2.5 emissions between

emission sources is shown in Figure 2.9.

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Industrial processes

3.0 %

Figure 2.9. PM2.5 emissions in 2016 by sectors

Emissions of fine particulate matter decreased significantly (-51.2 %) between 2000 and 2016

(Figure 2.10), despite an increase in electricity generation during the same period (19 %). The main

reasons for the reduction in emissions were the increase in the efficiency of the combustion and capture

equipment of oil shale-fired thermal power plants and the application of the requirements of the

Industrial Emissions Act (hereinafter referred to as ‘IEA’)9 to large combustion plants.

In 2010, the increase in emissions of fine particulate matter was due to an increase in electricity

production. The significant increase in PM2.5 emissions in 2011 resulted from an increase in electricity

production by 34 %, deficiency of the electrostatic filters of two power units of a power plant and

increased use of woodfuel.

9 Industrial Emissions Act. RT I, 04.07.2017, 49. [www] https://www.riigiteataja.ee/akt/THS. (22 October 2018)

Waste 1.3 %

Agriculture 1.5 %

Use of solvents 1.0 %

Transport 9.8 %

Energy 83.4 %

https://www.riigiteataja.ee/akt/THS

18

Energy Transport Industrial processes

Other emission sources NEC Directive target 2020 NEC Directive target 2030

Figure 2.10. PM2.5 emissions during the period 2000-2016 by sectors, and NEC Directive targets


CLRTAP, which prescribe a 15 % reduction in emissions of fine particulate matter by 2020 compared to

the level recorded in 2005. PM2.5 emissions decreased by 47.4 % in 2016 compared to 2005.

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3. Overall impact of the measures envisaged in the Atmospheric Pollutants

Reduction Programme

Figures 3.1 and 3.2 and Table 3.1 present the projections of total atmospheric pollutant emissions in all

sectors for the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and the reduction action scenario (RAS). The BAU

scenario assumes a situation where no further action is taken and the current situation continues. The

BAU scenario also takes account of the requirements arising from the legislation and the realisation of

the courses of development envisaged in companies’ action plans. The RAS scenario describes a

situation where additional measures are implemented to meet the emission reduction targets. For a more

detailed description of the scenarios and measures, see Chapter 3 and the chapters dedicated to specific

sectors in Annex 1.

In the BAU scenario, emissions of NOx, SO2, VOC and PM2.5 will decrease, while emissions of NH3,

in particular from the agricultural sector, will increase (explained in Chapter 3.5.1). In the RAS scenario,

projections for all atmospheric pollutants exhibit a declining trend.

Energy Transport Industry

Solvents Agriculture Waste

NEC Directive

Figure 3.1. Cross-sector projection of atmospheric pollutants (kt) in the BAU scenario

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Energy Transport Industry Solvents

Agriculture Waste NEC Directive BAU

Figure 3.2. Cross-sector projection of atmospheric pollutants (kt) in the RAS scenario

The results of the RAS projections show that the implementation of all the additional measures will

make it possible to meet the commitments to reduce atmospheric pollutant emissions established by the

NEC Directive (Table 3.1).

Table 3.1. Total projection of atmospheric pollutants for BAU and RAS scenarios, and

relative change in emissions compared to 2005, %

NOx

Total emissions, kt

NOx

Change compared to

2005

SO2

Total

emissions, kt

SO2

Change compared to

2005

VOC

Total

emissions, kt

VOC

Change compared to

2005

BAU RAS BAU RAS BAU RAS BAU RAS BAU RAS BAU RAS

40.22 76.26 28.00

2020 30.39 30.52 -24.43 % -24.12 % 22.99 22.50 -69.86 % -70.49 % 19.81 19.74 -29.25 % -29.50 %

2025 30.01 27.87 -25.38 % -30.70 % 17.99 16.18 -76.41 % -78.78 % 19.97 18.99 -28.68 % -32.18 %

2030 27.89 24.23 -30.66 % -39.76 % 11.95 10.83 -84.33 % -85.80 % 20.00 18.67 -28.59 % -33.32 %

PM2.5

Total emissions, kt

PM2.5

Change compared to 2005

NH3

Total emissions, kt

NH3

Change compared to 2005

BAU RAS BAU RAS BAU RAS BAU RAS

14, 22 10.73

2020 6.40 6.40 -54.98 % -54.98 % 10.96 10.96 2.05 % 2.05 %

2025 6.34 6.34 -55.43 % -55.43 % 11.39 11.39 6.06 % 6.06 %

2030 6.17 6.17 -56.65 % -56.65 % 12.02 12.02 12.01 % 12.01 %

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21

3.1. Energy sector (short description, scenario development)

In the energy sector, stationary combustion of fuel (hereinafter referred to as ‘energy’) and distribution

and mining of fuels are discussed. Mobile emission sources are discussed in the chapter on transport.

The energy sector includes the following emission sources:

energy industries;

production of electricity and heat;

fuel conversion industry;

combustion in manufacturing industry and construction;

non-industrial combustion;

combustion in commercial and public service sectors;

combustion in households;

combustion in agriculture and forestry;

mining and distribution of solid fuels (diffuse emissions).

Emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the energy sector depend on fuel combustion, energy production

and electricity exports. In 2016, 99.6 % of Estonia’s total SO2 emissions, 49.6 % of NOx emissions,

83.4 % of PM2.5 emissions, 29 % of VOC emissions and 9 % of NH3 emissions originated from the

energy sector. The energy sector is described in more detail in Annex 1.

Scenario development

A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and a reduction action scenario (RAS) have been developed to

assess the impact of measures taken in the energy sector on atmospheric pollutants.

The calculation of estimated fuel consumption during the period 2019-2030 is based on the scenario for

oil shale and retort gas set out in the Energy Sector Development Plan 203010 (hereinafter referred to as

‘ESDP 2030’), which was updated using the Balmorel model,11 taking into account the implementation

of the activities specified in companies’ action plans for the years 2018-2030. The updated input data

used in the Balmorel model included the price of carbon dioxide (CO2) quota, world market fuel price,

and projections of power generation capacities and of the number of shale oil plants. Both the BAU and

RAS projections were based on the ESDP 2030 oil shale and retort gas scenario as updated in Balmorel.

In addition, the BAU and RAS scenarios take account of the implementation of the requirements of the

Medium Combustion Plant Directive3. The projection methodology of the Atmospheric Pollutant

Emissions Programme is in line with the General Principles of Climate Policy 205012 (hereinafter

referred to as ‘GPCP 2050’).

The BAU scenario assumes a situation in which the state does not implement any additional measures to

meet the targets for the electricity and heat production and housing subsectors (Figure 3.3). The

assumption that electricity and heat production is carried out in the most economically feasible way,

given the current market situation, coincides with the ESDP 2030 scenario for oil shale and retort gas,

which was updated in the Balmorel model. For the heat sector, the ESDP 2030 district heating scenario

was used, which was updated as part of the preparation of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Policies,

Measures and Projections (2019)13 report.

10 Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications. Energy Sector Development Plan 2030. [www] https://www.mkm.ee/sites/default/files/enmak_2030.pdf.

(22 October 2018) 11 Balmorel — market-based model for power generation modelling, http://www.balmorel.com. (22 October 2018) 12 Ministry of the Environment. General Principles of Climate Policy 2050. [www] https://www.envir.ee/sites/default/files/kpp_2050.pdf. (22 October 2018) 13 Ministry of the Environment. (2019) Kasvuhoonegaaside heitkoguste poliitikad, meetmed ja prognoosid [www] https: //www.envir.ee/sites/default/files/content-

editors/Kliima/kasvuhoonegaaside poliitikaid meetmeid ja prognoose kasitlev aruanne.pdf (22 March 2019)

https://www.mkm.ee/sites/default/files/enmak_2030.pdfhttp://www.balmorel.com/https://www.envir.ee/sites/default/files/kpp_2050.pdfhttps://www.envir.ee/sites/default/files/content-editors/Kliima/kasvuhoonegaaside_poliitikaid_meetmeid_ja_prognoose_kasitlev_aruanne.pdfhttps://www.envir.ee/sites/default/files/content-editors/Kliima/kasvuhoonegaaside_poliitikaid_meetmeid_ja_prognoose_kasitlev_aruanne.pdf

22

The RAS scenario assumes a situation where the impact of the measures is fully realised as envisaged in

the development plans. This would mean an improved efficiency of energy networks; reduced losses of

heat and electricity; reduced energy consumption as a result of renovation of the building stock;

movement towards higher value-added products in the use of oil shale; and gradual introduction of

domestic renewable energy sources in the production of electricity and heat. For the heat sector, the

ESDP 2030 scenario of energy cooperatives was used.


The descriptions of measures to be taken in the energy sector are based on the ESDP 2030 development

plan and the GPCP 2050 document, which are based on the oil shale/retort gas consumption scenario for

the production of electricity (modelled for the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme with the

Balmorel model). The choice of measures concerning the production of heat was based on the scenario

of energy cooperatives, where the state is primarily expected to contribute to the development of a

knowledge-based economy. The measures are described in more detail in Chapter 1.3 of Annex 1.

Potential measures to meet the targets for reduction of atmospheric pollutants are as follows:

1) wider use of wind power in electricity generation;

2) renovation of buildings;

3) heat production and renovation of the district heating network.

As a recommended measure to further reduce atmospheric pollutants, it would be necessary to raise

public awareness and support the replacement of heating appliances and connection to the district

heating network to foster the transition to less polluting ways of heating.

Local heating causes high levels of fine particles and benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P) at the local level during

the heating season, the reduction of which requires the replacement of old stoves against new ones, as

well as support for connection to the district heating network. These activities should be fully supported

by national and local funding instruments.

The realisation of the BAU scenario in the energy sector (Figure 3.3) may cause problems in meeting the

emission reduction targets set for Estonia, as the energy sector is the largest source of NOx, PM2.5 and

SO2 emissions.

23

Figure 3.3. BAU scenario for emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the energy sector, kt

Although the BAU scenario does not include any additional measures, emissions of atmospheric

pollutants will decrease as a result of closure of old pulverised combustion units. The trend is also

significantly influenced by the requirements for combustion plants transposed from EU directives into

national law (IEA9, Minister of the Environment Regulation No. 4414 and the Energy Sector

Organisation Act15), which aim to reduce emissions into the ambient air and, consequently, the potential

danger to human health and the environment.

14 Minister of the Environment Regulation No. 44 ‘Limit values of emissions of pollutants released from combustion plants outside the scope of application of the

Industrial Emissions Act, requirements for monitoring the emissions of pollutants, and criteria for adherence to the limit values of emissions’. RT I, 10.11.2017, 18.

[www] https://www.riigiteataja.ee/akt/110112017018. (22 October 2018) 15 Energy Sector Organisation Act. RT I, 12.12.2018, 24. [www] https://www.riigiteataja.ee/akt/129062018074 (22 October 2018)

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Diffuse emissions

Combustion in agriculture and forestry Combustion in households

Combustion in commercial and public service sectors Combustion in manufacturing industry

Fuel conversion industry

Production of electricity and heat

https://www.riigiteataja.ee/akt/110112017018https://www.riigiteataja.ee/akt/129062018074

24

According to the RAS scenario (Figure 3.4), the downward trend will continue, as opposed to the BAU

scenario. Based on the results of the Balmorel model, NOx emissions will be higher in the RAS scenario

than in the BAU scenario in 2020, because oil shale consumption in the production of electricity will be

approximately 2300 TJ higher in 2020 in the RAS scenario. However, the reduction of emissions of

atmospheric pollutants can be achieved through the implementation of the set of all measures; thus it is

important to take an integrated approach to the problems of the energy sector in order to achieve the

reduction of atmospheric pollutant emissions to the extent necessary to meet the targets set (Table 3.2).

Figure 3.4. RAS scenario for emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the energy sector, kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Diffuse emissions

Combustion in agriculture and forestry

Combustion in households Combustion in commercial and public service sectors

Combustion in manufacturing industry

Fuel conversion industry Production of electricity and heat

BAU

25

Table 3.2. BAU and RAS projections for the energy sector and relative change in emissions compared

to 2005, %

NOx

Total emissions, kt

NOx

Change compared to

2005

SO2

Total

emissions, kt

SO2

Change compared to

2005

VOC

Total

emissions, kt

VOC

Change compared to

2005


2005 20.692 75.716 11.345

2016 15.489 29.707 6.507

2020 16.467 16.830 -20.4 % -18.7 % 22.868 22.382 -69.8 % -70.4 % 9.650 9.629 -14.9 % -15.1 %

2025 15.954 14.862 -22.9 % -28.2 % 17.856 16.054 -76.4 % -78.8 % 9.850 9.127 -13.2 % -19.6 %

2030 14.064 12.313 -32.0 % -40.5 % 11.811 10.695 -84.4 % -85.9 % 9.857 8.908 -13.1 % -21.5 %

PM2 . 5

Total emissions, kt

PM2 . 5 Change compared to 2005

NH3 Total emissions, kt

NH3 Change compared to 2005


2005 12.264 0.902

2016 6.243 0.884

2020 5.100 5.081 -58.4 % -58.6 % 0.836 0.836 -7.3 % -7.3 %

2025 5.018 4.597 -59.1 % -62.5 % 0.837 0.829 -7.2 % -8.0 %

2030 4.844 4.294 -60.5 % -65.0 % 0.838 0.828 -7.0 % -8.2 %

26

3.2. Transport sector (short description, scenario development)

Transport is one of the main sources of ambient air pollution alongside energy and industry. All the key

modes of transport, such as road, rail, inland waterway and air transport, are in use in Estonia. In

addition to the above, emissions of pollutants released into the ambient air from other mobile emission

sources, such as the equipment used in households, industry, agriculture, fisheries and the commercial

sector, are also taken into account. Road transport is the most energy-intensive and largest source of

emissions, followed by agriculture and industry. Air transport, fisheries and the commercial sector have

a lower impact. In 2016, the transport sector accounted for the following share of total emissions: NOx –

42.5 %, VOC – 13.3 %, PM2.5 – 9.8 %, NH3 – 1.2 % and SO2 – 0.2 %. The transport sector is described

in more detail in Annex 1.



assess the impact of measures taken in the transport sector on emissions of atmospheric pollutants.

The BAU scenario (Figure 3.5) is based on a situation where the current trends continue, assuming that

no new measures changing the demand for transport or addressing the efficiency of the vehicle fleet are

taken to meet the targets for atmospheric pollutants. The BAU scenario is based on a non-intervention

transport scenario developed in the framework of ESDP 2030, which does not provide for any targets for

the energy efficiency of motor cars and transport as a whole, the proportion of renewable energy, the

CO2 footprint of fuels, collective transport or non-motorised traffic.

The RAS scenario (Figure 3.6) was developed on the basis of the measures specified in the study

entitled ‘Finding the most cost-effective measures to achieve the targets of the climate policy and Effort

Sharing Regulation in Estonia’16 (hereinafter referred to as the ‘ESR Study’), which in turn are based on

the knowledge-based transport scenario of ESDP 2030. These measures include national and local

authorities’ tax policies, support measures and activities aimed at developing an efficient vehicle fleet,

integrated transport and settlement planning, and encouraging choices of transport and mobility modes

with a lower GHG footprint. The RAS scenario describes a situation where the design of the transport

policy is systematic, integrated and based on the choice of cost-effective activities, i.e. the best

international knowledge. The activities carried out in that scenario seek to curb further growth of energy

consumption in transport through the planning efforts of agencies and the development of collective

transport and non-motorised traffic.


The description of the measures to be taken in the transport sector was drawn up by the Transport

Working Group, which included representatives of both public and private sector transport. A total of

11 measures of the ESR Study16 were selected and their descriptions were updated in line with the

atmospheric pollutant reduction targets. The measures are described in more detail in Chapter 2.3 of

Annex 1.

16 Finantsakadeemia OÜ. 2018. Kulutõhusaimate meetmete leidmiseks kliimapoliitika ja jagatud kohustuse määruse eesmärkide saavutamiseks Eestis. [www]

https://www.kik.ee/sites/default/files/aruanne_kliimapoliitika_kulutohusus_final.pdf (22 October 2018)

https://www.kik.ee/sites/default/files/aruanne_kliimapoliitika_kulutohusus_final.pdf

27


1) tolls for heavy-duty vehicles; 2) electric cars; 3) spatial and land use measures in cities to increase energy savings in transport; 4) vehicle tires and aerodynamics; 5) electrification and expansion of the use of the main rail network; 6) parking policies of cities; 7) promotion of economical driving; 8) development of non-motorised traffic; 9) additional collective transport services; 10) distance working and e-services; 11) carpooling.

Although no additional measures are included in the BAU scenario (Figure 3.5), atmospheric pollutant

emissions will decrease. The trend is influenced by Regulation (EC) No. 443/2009 of the European

Parliament and of the Council,17 which sets a target of 95 g CO2/km as average emissions for the new

car fleet by 2021 and envisages the replacement of old cars with new or higher EURO class cars18. The

EURO class determines the intensity of air pollution by the vehicle, i.e. the emissions released per

kilometre or unit of fuel consumed. Generally, the higher the vehicle’s EURO class, the lower the

emissions of atmospheric pollutants.

The RAS scenario (Figure 3.6) outlines a further downward trend compared to the BAU scenario, but

the effect can be achieved only through the implementation of almost all the measures; thus it is

important for those in charge of implementation of the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme to

take an integrated approach to the problems of the transport sector in order to achieve the reduction of

atmospheric pollutant emissions to the extent necessary to meet the targets set (Table 3.3).

17 Regulation (EC) No. 443/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars as

part of the Community’s integrated approach to reduce CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles (p. 1-15). [www] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-

content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32009R0443&from=en. (19 March 2019) 18 The conformity of a motor vehicle to a particular class is demonstrated by the CEMT (European Conference of Ministers of Transport) certificate of conformity

(issued by the manufacturer, the competent authority of the country of registration, the manufacturer’s representative in the country of registration or a combination

of the above, depending on the particular case), which sets out the noise, emissions and safety requirements for the vehicle, and by the certificate issued as a result

of an annual inspection for compliance with the safety requirements specified in the CEMT certificate of conformity (issued by an inspection point).

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32009R0443&from=enhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32009R0443&from=en

28

Figure 3.5. BAU scenario for emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the transport sector, kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Commercial sector, households, agricultural machinery, fisheries Inland waterways transport Rail transport Road transport Air transport Industrial machinery

29

Figure 3.6. RAS scenario for emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the transport sector, kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Commercial sector, households, agricultural machinery, fisheries

Inland waterways transport

Rail transport

Road transport

Air transport

Industrial machinery

BAU

30

Table 3.3. BAU and RAS projections for the transport sector and relative change in emissions compared

to 2005, %

NOx

Total emissions,

kt

NOx

Change compared to

2005

SO2

Total

emissions, kt

SO2 Change compared to

2005

VOC

Total

emissions, kt

VOC

Change compared to

2005


2005 19.338 0.381 6.412

2016 13.274 0.059 2.952

2020 13.812 13.577 -28.6 % -29.8 % 0.052 0.052 -86.4 % -86.3 % 2.852 2.802 -55.5 % -56.3 %

2025 13.929 12.879 -28.0 % -33.4 % 0.055 0.053 -85.6 % -86.0 % 2.798 2.540 -56.4 % -60.4 %

2030 13.680 11.772 -29.3 % -39.1 % 0.055 0.053 -85.6 % -86.1 % 2.64 2.263 -58.8 % -64.7 %

PM2 . 5

Total emissions, kt

PM2 . 5 Change compared to 2005

NH3 Total emissions, kt

NH3 Change compared to 2005


2005 0.953 0.210

2016 0.732 0.148

2020 0.741 0.733 -22.2 % -23.1 % 0.142 0.136 -32.4 % -35.6 %

2025 0.725 0.678 -23.9 % -28.8 % 0.140 0.111 -33.3 % -47.5 %

2030 0.693 0.566 -27.3 % -40.6 % 0.129 0.086 -38.6 % -59.2 %

31

3.3. Industrial processes (short description, scenario development)

In 2016, 0.1 % of Estonia’s total NOx emissions, 2 % of PM2.5 emissions, 2.3 % of VOC emissions and

2.2 % of NH3 emissions originated from the industrial processes sector. The proportion of sulphur

dioxide is insignificant. Data on stationary and diffuse emission sources are used to calculate and

aggregate emissions in the industrial processes sector. The data on emissions of pollutants from

stationary emission sources are derived from the annual reports on activities related to ambient air

pollution submitted by possessors of the emission sources (companies) holding an air pollution permit or

integrated environmental permit. Emissions from diffuse emission sources are calculated on the basis of

the raw data available from Statistics Estonia or professional associations, and specific emission factors.

The industrial processes sector is described in more detail in Annex 1.

The following emission sources are included in the industrial processes sector:

mineral industry (production and use of cement, glass and lime; mining and storage of mineral resources; construction and demolition, etc.);

chemical industry;

metal industry;

asphalting roads;

production of pulp, paper and food;

wood processing;

other industries.


In the absence of a need to implement additional measures, only the BAU scenario (Figure 3.7) was

developed for the industrial processes sector in connection with the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction

Programme, which is based on the assumption that the current trends observed from the reference year

2005 to the base year 2016, as described in Chapter 4.1 of Annex 1, will continue. No new policy

guidelines for achieving the atmospheric pollutant targets and leading to significant changes in

production demand or concerning the best available techniques (BAT) are expected to be adopted in the

industrial processes sector. The development of the BAU scenario for the industrial processes sector is

described in more detail in Chapter 4.4 of Annex 1.


Given that the industrial processes sector is governed by the IEA, and having regard to the low or

negligible contribution of the sector to emissions of atmospheric pollutants in Estonia in 2016, and the

clear downward trend in emissions of atmospheric pollutants during the years 1990-2016 (Chapter 4.1 of

Annex 1), there is no need to implement additional measures in this sector. This conclusion is also

supported by the forecast for emissions of atmospheric pollutants prepared in accordance with the

applicable requirements, which indicates that the downward trend is expected to continue (Figure 3.7,

Table 3.4).

32

Figure 3.7. BAU scenario for emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the sector of industrial processes

until 2030, kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Production, use, storage, handling and transportation of other products Use of persistent organic pollutants and heavy metals Wood processing

Food processing industry

Production of pulp and paper

Road paving with asphalt

Metal production: other

Copper production

Zinc production

Lead production

Aluminium production

Iron and steel production

Storage, handling and transportation of chemical products Chemical industry: other

Ammonia production

Other mineral products

Construction and demolition

Mining of minerals (excluding coal)

Lime production

Cement production

33

Table 3.4. Projections for the industrial sector and relative change in emissions compared to 2005, %

NO

x

Tota

l em

issi

on

s, k

t

NO

x

Ch

an

ge c

om

pared

to 2

005

SO

2

Tota

l em

issi

on

s, k

t

SO

2

Ch

an

ge c

om

pared

to 2

005

VO

C

Tota

l em

issi

on

s, k

t

VO

C

Ch

an

ge c

om

pared

to 2

005

PM

2.5

Tota

l em

issi

on

s, k

t

PM

2.5

Ch

an

ge c

om

pared

to 2

005

NH

3

Tota

l em

issi

on

s, k

t

NH

3

Ch

an

ge c

om

pared

to 2

005

BAU = RAS BAU = RAS BAU = RAS BAU = RAS BAU = RAS

2005 0.176 0.130 1.569 0.582 0.201

2016 0.001 0.045 0.768 0.225 0.071

2020 0.082 -53.45 % 0.011 -91.63 % 0.909 -42.06 % 0.279 -52.11 % 0.091 -54.83 %

2025 0.094 -46.16 % 0.012 -90.41 % 0.962 -38.67 % 0.307 -47.30 % 0.098 -51.12 %

2030 0.107 -39.20 % 0.014 -89.29 % 1.007 -35.83 % 0.334 -42.67 % 0.108 -46.31 %

34

3.4. Solvents (short description, scenario development)

The emissions reported in the sector of solvents include in particular those of VOC, which accounted for

nearly 42 % of national emissions in 2016, as well as, to a limited extent, the emissions of NOx, SO2,

NH3 and PM2.5 originating from the following activities:

use of solvents in households;

use of paints;

surface cleaning;

dry cleaning;

production and processing of chemical products;

printing;

other use of solvents;

use of other products.

Emissions of pollutants from diffuse sources are calculated on the basis of the raw data of Statistics

Estonia and Eurostat and the specific emission factors set out in the EMEP/EEA Guidebook 2016. The

raw data for, and pollutant emissions from, point sources are derived from annual air pollution reports

submitted by companies to the OSIS ambient air pollution sources information system. The sector of

solvents is described in more detail in Annex 1.


In the absence of a need to implement additional measures, only the BAU scenario until 2030

(Figure 3.8) was developed for the sector of solvents in connection with the Atmospheric Pollutants

Reduction Programme, which is based on the assumption that the current trends observed from the

reference year 2005 to the base year 2016, as described in Chapter 5.1 of Annex 1, will continue. In the

sector of solvents, it is expected that the trend towards greater use of water-based paints will continue

(the ratio of using solvent-based and water-based paints was ca. 50/50 in 2016) and that no new policies

for achieving the atmospheric pollutant targets will be implemented which significantly change the

production demand, emission limit values or the content of solvent in non-industrial paints or which

concern the application of the BAT. The development of the BAU scenario for the sector of solvents is

described in more detail in Chapter 5.4 of Annex 1.


Given that the sector of solvents is governed by the IEA9 and Directive 2004/42/EC of the European

Parliament and of the Council,19 which has been transposed into Estonian law by the Atmospheric Air

Protection Act,20 and the clear downward trend of atmospheric pollutants during the years 1990-2016

(Chapter 5.1 of Annex 1), there is no need to implement additional measures in this sector. This

conclusion is also supported by the projection of emissions of atmospheric pollutants estimated in

accordance with the effective requirements, based on which the downward trend will continue

(Figure 3.8, Table 3.5).

19 Directive 2004/42/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the limitation of emissions of volatile organic compounds due to the use of organic

solvents in certain paints and varnishes and vehicle refinishing products and amending Directive 1999/13/EC. [www] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-

content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32004L0042&from=EN. (19 February 2018) 20 Atmospheric Air Protection Act. RT I, 22.12.2018, 7. [www] https://www.riigiteataja.ee/akt/A%C3%95KS (22 October 2018)

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32004L0042&from=ENhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32004L0042&from=ENhttps://www.riigiteataja.ee/akt/AÕKS

35

However, it is appropriate to improve the methodology for the calculation of VOC emissions from

solvents used in households (NFR 2D3a) in the inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the sector of

solvents and, where possible, to examine how the VOC emissions originating from solvents used in

households could be better estimated.

Figure 3.8. BAU scenario for emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the sector of solvents until 2030, kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Use of other products

Other use of solvents

Printing

Chemical products

Dry cleaning

Degreasing

Use of paints

Use of solvents in households

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

Emis

sio

ns,

kt

36

Table 3.5. Projections for the sector of solvents and relative change in emissions compared to 2005, %

NO

x

To

tal

em

issi

on

s, k

t

NO

x

Ch

an

ge

com

pa

red

to 2

00

5

SO

2

To

tal

em

issi

on

s, k

t

SO

2

Ch

an

ge

com

pa

red

to 2

00

5

VO

C

To

tal

em

issi

on

s, k

t

VO

C

Ch

an

ge

com

pa

red

to 2

00

5

PM

2.5

To

tal

em

issi

on

s, k

t

PM

2.5

Ch

an

ge

com

pa

red

to 2

00

5

NH

3

To

tal

em

issi

on

s, k

t

NH

3

Ch

an

ge

com

pa

red

to 2

00

5

BAU = RAS BAU = RAS BAU = RAS BAU = RAS BAU = RAS

2005 0.005 0.001 7.854 0.100 0.021

2016 0.004 0.001 6.398 0.073 0.012

2020 0.004 -19.34 % 0.001 42.48 % 6.203 -21.03 % 0.076 -23.83 % 0.012 -41.48 %

2025 0.004 -14.29 % 0.001 43.82 % 6.158 -21.59 % 0.079 -20.99 % 0.013 -35.97 %

2030 0.004 -9.92 % 0.002 59.52 % 6.284 -19.99 % 0.082 -18.79 % 0.014 -30.85 %

37

3.5. Agriculture (short description, scenario development)

NH3 emissions from the agricultural sector account for nearly 90 % of the total national emissions of

atmospheric pollutants. The shares of other pollutants from agriculture in total emissions were

significantly lower in 2016: NOx – 8.8 %, VOC - 20%, PM2.5 – 2 %.

In the Estonian agricultural sector, atmospheric pollutant emissions are assessed on the basis of the

following sub-sectors:

livestock manure management, including application of manure and grazing;

use of mineral fertilisers;

use of sewage sludge and other organic fertilisers, including compost;

tillage or cultivation of the soil.

Emissions from diffuse emission sources are calculated on the basis of the raw data of Statistics Estonia

and other agencies collecting agricultural data, and specific emission factors. The agricultural sector is

described in more detail in Annex 1.



assess the impact of agricultural guidelines on atmospheric pollutant emissions. The assumptions

describing agricultural output used in impact analyses are equal in the BAU and RAS scenarios. The

RAS scenario differs from the BAU scenario in terms of more extensive implementation of NH3

mitigation measures. As a result, the projected output volume of the BAU scenario is maintained in the

RAS scenario, but the RAS scenario assumes that atmospheric pollution emissions per unit of output

will decrease due to technological development. According to the underlying assumptions, agricultural

output (livestock numbers, dairy and crop production) will grow in the BAU and RAS scenarios, and

based on this, an increase in fertiliser use is also predicted. Neither of the scenarios anticipates any

changes in the distribution of manure management systems or in the area of agricultural land fertilised

with organic and mineral fertilisers.

In the BAU scenario, the number of bovine animals, pigs and sheep/goats will increase by 15 %, 34 %

and 37 %, respectively, by 2030 (compared to 2016). Average milk production per cow will increase to

10,000 kg per year by 2030 (8878 kg in 2016). Due to the increase in the livestock numbers, ammonia

emissions from livestock buildings, manure storage and grazing will grow. Increasing use of mineral

and manure fertilisers will also play a role in the growth of NH3emissions. The share of other organic fertilisers is expected to remain at the same level as in 2016. Compared to 2016, the BAU

scenario does not anticipate further technological developments in livestock buildings, manure storage

facilities or application of fertilisers which could further limit the growth of NH3 emissions.

Livestock numbers, milk and cereal production figures and quantities of organic and mineral fertilisers

used in the RAS scenario projections are the same as in the BAU scenario. With the growth of

agricultural output, the national reduction target for NH3 will be achieved during the period 2020-2030

provided that the extent of implementation of measures to reduce NH3 emissions will increase. In the

RAS scenario, it is assumed that the proportion of liquid manure stored in tented/concrete roof storage

facilities or closed steel or plastic tanks will increase compared to the BAU scenario. In addition, open-

slot and closed-slot injection will increasingly be used in the application of liquid manure, and NH3

emissions from mineral fertilisers will be limited by introducing mineral fertilisers into the soil as soon

as possible by tillage after the spreading of the mineral fertilisers or by using a combination sowing

machine.

38


In order to meet the relevant national commitments to reduce atmospheric pollutant emissions,

additional measures need to be implemented, taking into account the provisions of Part 2 of Annex III to

the NEC Directive. The choice of measures in the RAS scenario was based on the reduction targets for

atmospheric pollutants and took into account existing requirements (including the NEC Directive

requirements), development plans and basic research.

The Agriculture Working Group, composed of both public and private sector agricultural experts, helped

to determine the selection of measures for the agricultural sector. A more detailed description of the

measures is given in Chapter 6.3 of Annex 1.


1) low-emission manure storage technologies: storage of liquid manure in tented roof or concrete roof storage facilities as well as in closed steel or plastic tanks;

2) low-emission manure spreading technologies: injection of liquid manure;

3) limiting of ammonia emissions from the use of mineral fertilisers by rapid introduction of the fertilisers into the soil.

Figure 3.9 shows NH3 emissions from the manure management and cultivation sub-sectors of the

agricultural sector for the period 2005-2015 and projections of NH3 emissions for the period 2020-2030

in the BAU and RAS scenarios. Table 3.6 sets out relative changes of the agricultural scenario

projections for years 2020, 2025 and 2030 compared to 2005.

39

Tillage, RAS Manure management, RAS BAU scenario

Figure 3.9. Projections of NH3 emissions in BAU and RAS scenarios, kt21

Table 3.6. BAU and RAS projections for the agricultural sector and relative change in emissions

compared to 2005, %

NH3

Total emissions,

kt

NH3 Change compared to

2005, %

PM2.5

Total

emissions, kt

PM2.5 Change compared to

2005, %

BAU RAS BAU RAS BAU RAS RAS BAU

2005 9.376 9.376 0.111 0.111

2016 8.804 8.804 -6.1 % 0.114 0.114 2.7 %

2020 9.811 9.376 4.6 % 0.0007 % 0.109 0.109 -1.8 % -1.8 %

2025 10.229 9.303 9.1 % -0.8 % 0.112 0.112 0.9 % 0.9 %

2030 10.863 9.429 15.9 % 0.6 % 0.115 0.115 3.6 % 3.6 %

Both the BAU and RAS scenarios anticipate an increase in NH3 emissions by 2020, 2025 and 2030

compared to 2016, mainly due to the expected increase in agricultural output and in the use of mineral

fertilisers. In the RAS scenario, more extensive implementation of measures to reduce NH3 emissions is

expected to achieve the NH3 reduction target.

The methodology and sector-specific underlying indicators based on which the projections were

estimated are discussed in more detail in Chapters 6.4.1 and 6.4.2 of Annex 1.

21 As more detailed raw data became available to increase the accuracy of NH3 emissions during the preparation of the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction

Programme, the projections were estimated on the basis of the values of NH3 emissions recalculated for the years 2005-2016. The recalculations mainly concerned

manure management technologies and were largely based on the study by A. Kaasik (Estonian University of Life Sciences) of 2018 titled ‘Loomakasvatusest

eralduvate saasteainete heitkoguste inventuurimetoodikate täiendamine ja heite vähendamistehnoloogiate kaardistamine’. [www]

https://www.envir.ee/sites/default/files/nh3 eriheite ja sonnikukaitlustehnoloogiate ajaloolise ulevaate lopparuanne 0.pdf. (19 March 2019)

kt N

H3

https://www.envir.ee/sites/default/files/nh3_eriheite_ja_sonnikukaitlustehnoloogiate_ajaloolise_ulevaate_lopparuanne_0.pdf

40

4. Economic efficiency of the measures envisaged in the Atmospheric Pollutants

Reduction Programme

Energy

Among all sectors, the energy sector is the largest source of NOx, SO2 and PM2.5 emissions and has a

high potential for reducing these pollutants. The BAU scenarios of ESDP 2030 anticipate a rapid

increase in fuel consumption until 2030, which is also reflected in the BAU scenario of the Atmospheric

Pollutants Reduction Programme.

In energy production, measures to reduce emissions of ambient air pollutants are related to both energy

consumption (renovation of buildings) and energy production. In Estonia, the electricity sector

predominantly involves large production plants and this sector is strictly regulated by both EU and

national legislation. Since the BAU and RAS scenarios of the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction

Programme are based on the assumption that companies’ action plans for the years 2018-2030 will be

realised and that companies take account of the legal requirements in implementing their action plans,

the RAS scenario only addresses heat sector-related measures.

Estimates of the accumulated net cost of the measures taken in the energy sector and the potential for

reducing emissions of atmospheric pollutants are set out in Table 4.1. The estimates are presented as

average values. The calculated costs of heat sector-related measures are based on the ESR Study16. In

the production of electricity, the construction of additional wind generator capacities has been estimated

at a cost of approximately 1.5 million euros per MW. When estimating the economic impact, it was

assumed that the measures to be taken in the energy sector would be implemented as foreseen in the

optimal solution identified in the ESR Study (e.g. a flat rate of grants for renovation of buildings). In

addition, funding measures and amounts requested by the Ministry of the Environment for the next

budget period 2021+ have been taken into account, including as regards state support for medium

combustion plants, for replacing household stoves and for promoting connections to district heating in

densely populated areas.

A measure can be either an item of expenditure or an item of income for the public or private sector.

Energy sector-related measures constitute an item of expenditure for both the public and private sectors.

In the public sector, the expenditure consists of various state subsidies (e.g. for renovating heating

equipment or installing treatment equipment). Each measure has a positive impact in terms of reducing

atmospheric pollutant emissions.

41

Table 4.1. Reduction of NOx and PM2.5 emissions as a result of energy sector-related measures, and

accumulated net cost of the measures16

No. Measures

Reduction of NOx

and PM2.5

emissions

Accumulated

net cost

2020-2030

NOx

(tonne)

PM2.5 (tonne)

Public

sector

(k€)

Private

sector

(k€)

1 Wider use of wind power in electricity

generation 190.95 194.81 141,240 264,000

2 Renovation of private houses

1560.08 355.13

344,696 471,921

3 Renovation of apartment buildings 576,961 879,183

4 Renovation of office buildings 30,024 45,801

5 Renovation of school buildings 94,238 0

6 Replacement of district heating with

local heating22 0 17,565

7 Replacement of pipelines 29,697 92,234

8 Reconstruction of medium combustion

plants (incl. installation of filters)23 232,314 142,697

9 Renewal of the heating equipment of

private houses24 40,000 40,000

10

Development of district heating

networks

in residential areas (incl. connection to

district heating network)24

50,000 50,000

TOTAL 1751.04 549.94 1,449,170 1,913,402

The impact of the measures assessed will reduce a total of approximately 1750 tonnes of NOx emissions

and 550 tonnes of PM2.5 emissions.

22 It is intended to transfer to local heating in the district heating areas of smaller settlements where the consumption density K < 1.6

MWh/(RM●a). The aim is to provide district heating in areas where it is sustainable. 23 In addition to the underlying data of the ESR, this is also based on an analysis of the draft Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from medium combustion plants (EKUK, 2014). The funding request of

the Ministry of the Environment for the period 2021+ foresees 200 million euros for the reconstruction of medium combustion plants. 24 Funding request of the Ministry of the Environment for the period 2021+.

42

Transport

In the field of transport, it is necessary to take into account that the combined effect of the

implementation of measures will reduce the maximum potential for reducing atmospheric pollutants of

each individual measure. The estimates of the accumulated net cost of the measures and the potential for

reducing the emissions of atmospheric pollutants (Table 4.2) are presented as expected values and are

based on the ESR Study16. When estimating the economic impact, it was assumed that each of the

necessary measures would be implemented as foreseen in the optimal solution identified in the ESR

Study. As the impact of the measures is only estimated and the measures are novel in the Estonian

context, the actual impact may differ significantly from the projected impact.

The estimated costs and benefits of the measures are based on the ESR Study. A measure can be either

an item of expenditure or an item of income for the public or private sector. For the private sector, most

of the measures are seen as an item of income thanks to savings arising from reduced fuel consumption.

For the public sector, tolls for heavy-duty vehicles, for example, are an additional item of income.

Regardless of the amount of expenditure or income, each measure has a positive effect, i.e. it contributes

to the reduction of atmospheric pollutant emissions.

Table 4.2. Reduction of NOx and PM2.5 emissions as a result of transport sector-related measures, and

accumulated net cost of the measures16

No. Measures

Reduction of NOx and

PM2.5

emissions

Accumulated net cost

2020-2030

NOx

(tonne)

PM2.5

(tonne)

Public sector

(k€)

Private

sector (k€)

1 Tolls for heavy-duty vehicles 106.74 1.97 -452,634 483,653

2 Electric cars 173.39 9.29 192,230 -353,650

3

Spatial and land use measures in

cities to increase energy savings

in transport

336.10 17.29 347,744 -534,991

4 Vehicle tires and aerodynamics 249.30 4.60 171,726 -102,383

5 Electrification and expansion of

the use of the main rail network 349.58 58.21 224,012 -200,116

6 Parking policies of cities 154.91 8.30 -56,745 -141,247

7 Promotion of economical driving 157.47 8.24 105,926 -283,150

8 Development of non-motorised

traffic 49.23 2.64 109,476 -94,470

9 Additional collective transport

services 189.10 10.49 231,816 -417,795

10 Distance working and e-services 115.80 6.21 70,504 -222,203

11 Carpooling 26.49 1.42 17,441 -50,827

TOTAL 1908.12 128.66 961,496 -1,917,178

The impact of the measures assessed will reduce a total of approximately 1908 tonnes of NOx emissions

and 129 tonnes of PM2.5 emissions.

43

Agriculture

The summary of the economic efficiency of agricultural measures in the RAS scenario is based on the

study ‘Analysis of investments needed to reduce ammonia emissions’ conducted by the Estonian

University of Life Sciences in 201925. The agricultural sector is the biggest source of NH3 emissions and

it also has a high potential for reducing NH3 emissions. The analysis of investments needed for the

reduction of NH3 emissions originating from agriculture, as set out in the RAS scenario, and of the

associated costs and cost savings was based on several assumptions.

It was assumed that the number of dairy cows would increase by 9 % and that the average milk

production per cow would increase by 18 % by 2030 compared to 2015. Consequently, the amount of

liquid manure in cattle breeding is also expected to increase and new circular tanks will have to be built

for the storage of additional liquid manure. All new circular tanks were assumed to be closed tanks. In

addition, it was considered that the existing manure storage facilities also have free space and can be

filled to the extent of up to 96 % of the designed storage capacity of the storage facility. The analysis

assumed that liquid manure storage facilities would have to hold a quantity of eight months of manure.

In calculating the cost of investments, the prices of 2018 were adjusted with the average increase of the

price indices of the respective inputs in the last ten or more years (depending on availability of statistical

data). For manure storage facilities it was assumed that the costs of their design, costs relating to

formalities and costs of disposing of unused lagoons would account for 15 % of the cost of building new

manure storage facilities. For liquid manure injection equipment it was considered that it would also be

necessary to purchase powerful tractors that would be able to drag the equipment. For the direct seeding

technology it was considered that it would result in cost savings in machine work compared to

ploughing-based cultivation, but the cost of plant protection products would be added.

Accumulated net costs to reduce ammonia emissions during the period 2019-2030 are summarised in

Table 4.3. The most expensive measure is the construction of covered manure storage facilities and the

covering of existing circular tanks, which together with transaction costs would cost 92.2 million euros

in the period 2019-2030. The total investment needed for liquid manure injection equipment and tractors

would amount to 19.8 million euros over the same period. At the same time, the wider application of

direct seeding technology in the sector would reduce costs by 19.6 million euros.

Table 4.3. Reduction of NH3 emissions as a result of agricultural measures, and accumulated net cost of

the measures during the years 2019-2030

No. Measures

Reduction of NH3

measures

2020-2030

(tonnes

Accumulated

net cost

2020-2030,

million euros

1

Low-emission manure storage technologies: storage of liquid manure in tented roof or concrete roof storage facilities as well as in closed steel or plastic tanks

2795 92.2

2 Low-emission manure spreading

technologies: injection of liquid manure 19.8

3

Limiting of ammonia emissions from the use

of mineral fertilisers by rapid introduction of

the fertilisers into the soil -19.6

TOTAL 2795 92.4

25 Ariva, J., Viira, A.-H. 2019. Hinnang teatavate õhusaasteainete riiklike heitkoguste vähendamise direktiivi 2016/2284 lisas III toodud meetmete rakendamise

võimalikkusele Eestis ning vastavate vähendamise meetmete efektiivsuse ja majandusliku tõhususe analüüs. Analysis report. Estonian University of Life Sciences,

2019.

44

5. Summary of the analysis of long-range transboundary air pollution

Annex 2 to this programme discusses the potential impact of the measures to reduce atmospheric

pollutant emissions, as set out in the RAS scenarios, on the ambient air quality levels in Estonia.

Various emission source databases, data from the 2018 air pollutant inventory and the Eulerian grid model of the Airviro modelling environment26 were used in the analysis. Five pollutants (SO2, NOx,

PM2.5, NH3 and VOC) in six sectors (energy, industry, transport, solvents, waste and agriculture) were

modelled. Among these sectors, waste is not discussed, as the Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction

Programme did not address waste. However, waste has been taken into account when assessing the

combined effect of emission sources.

Projection calculations have been made on the assumption that only total emissions will change over

time, while the percentage distribution of these emissions between individual emission sources within a

sector will remain the same. It is also assumed that the location of major emission sources will not

change.

The results of the modelling show that the energy sector is the most polluting sector, prevailing in terms

of emissions of SO2, NOx, VOC and PM2.5. Transport, solvents and agriculture prevail in terms of the

release of NOx, VOC and NH3 emissions, respectively. The waste and industry sectors are of marginal

importance on the Estonian scale and only have a greater impact on the local level in the immediate

surroundings of the emission sources. Sector-specific results are presented in Annex 2.

26 Eulerian grid model [www] https://www.airviro.com/airviro/aqm/. (19 March 2019)

https://www.airviro.com/airviro/aqm/

45

6. Monitoring of the effectiveness of the measures to be implemented under the

Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme, and related development

needs

Implementation

The Atmospheric Pollutants Reduction Programme serves as an input to the preparation of development

plans of the relevant sectors and related policy-making. The programme sets guidelines for Estonia to

meet its emissions reduction commitments for 2020 and 2030. The programme identifies potential

measures and policy recommendations to achieve the targets in all relevant sectors (including

agriculture, transport, energy and households). Thus, the fulfilment of the emission reduction targets

depends on the work of the ministries responsible for the different sectors, as well as on meaningful

cooperation between the ministries involved. Table 6.1 sets out the sector-specific development plans

and responsible authorities related to the implement

Documents

National Air Pollution Control Programme, 2019, Estonia ... · national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants (hereinafter referred to as the ‘NEC Directive’)4. The aim