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PRESENTATION TO PLATTS CONFERENCE Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research Refining & Chemicals September 19, 2013

Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

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Page 1: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

PRESENTATION TO PLATTS CONFERENCE

Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research Refining & Chemicals September 19, 2013

Page 2: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

REFINING & CHEMICALS IN TOTAL’S ORGANISATION

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Integration throughout the chain

Upstream

Exploration-Production • > 50 countries • Leader in deep and ultra

deep offshore

Refining & petrochemicals • 1er western Europe refiner • Major producer of olefins and polymers

Specialty chemicals • Elastomers, adhesives and electroplating businesses in

the top 5 worldwide

Refining & chemicals Marketing & Services

Marketing & Services • Leader in Europe

and in Africa • 15 000 service stations • > 110 countries

New energies • 2% of the global solar

energy production • Biomass ; access-to-energy

program Trading-Shipping

Gas and power 2nd LNG producer

Refining & Petrochemicals, key link between Upstream and Marketing of oil and gas products

Page 3: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

A INTEGRATED MODEL FOCUSED ON VALUE CREATION

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Oil and gas production

Third parties

Third parties

Marketing

Refining & petrochemicals

Process optimization

Supply Synergies

Trading

•Superior offers to host countries: downstream / petrochemicals supplement well E&P investments by offering more jobs and by participating more actively in local economic development

•Hedge between upstream and downstream for extra heavy oil

•Synergies between petrochemicals and refining (feedstock, hydrogen, heat…)

•Balance between cyclical commodity markets

Page 4: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

REFINING & CHEMICALS KEY FIGURES

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Page 5: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

PROGRESSIVE CHANGE OF THE WORLD ENERGY MIX

0

100

200

300

2010 2020 2035

Mboe/d

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass Hydro Solar, wind, others

32%

22%

27%

6%

10% 2% 1%

31%

24%

25%

5%

10% 3% 2%

28%

25%

21%

6%

11% 3% 6%

Fossil energies to represent 74% of energy supply in 2035

Gas to become the second-largest energy source before 2030

Share of nuclear to remain constant

Strong growth of new energies, notably solar and wind

Attaining a new energy model will be a long process that will require technology, innovation and massive investments

Under Total’s vision, energy demand will increase by 31% between 2010 and 2035 driven by non-OECD countries needs

+31%

Page 6: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

EXPECTED RATIONALISATION IN EUROPE

Refining capacities Ethylene production capacities

End-2012 capacity : 14.8 Mbd • Restoring utilization rates • European demand expected decline 2013-2020 • Worsening unbalances in the Atlantic basin

End-2012 capacity : 26 Mt/a

• Restoring utilization rates

• Increasing imports from US and Middle-East

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10% of capacity reduction over 2013-2020

15% of capacity reduction over 2013-2020

Page 7: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

Absolute priority to safety and prevention of major environmental risks

Adapt capacities to demand and optimize our industrial system in Europe by focusing on large platforms and maximizing synergies to position the best sites among the leaders

Expand profitably in Asia and Middle East to leverage growth in emerging markets and access advantaged oil and gas feedstock

Americas : consolidate our industrial system in the US and leverage development opportunities in North America and Brazil

Differentiate through technology and innovate in processes and products

Pursue portfolio management focusing on core business

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2

3

4

5

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REFINING & CHEMICALS STRATEGY

Becoming a more competitive, integrated industrial segment

A SAFE and RELIABLE R&C FOCUSED ON INCREASING VALUE and in REDEPLOYMENT TOWARDS GROWING MARKETS

Page 8: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

TAKING UP THE US NEW OIL AND GAS ENVIRONMENT CHALLENGE

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•Port Arthur refinery : capturing domestic crude supply opportunities and maximizing throughputs •BTP cracker : maximizing ethane and LPG cracking •Studying ethane side cracker project

•Priority to investments on integrated platforms •Reducing exposure by 20% to refining and petrochemicals activities •Differentiate commodity polymer products on higher value markets

Page 9: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

FOCUS INVESTMENTS ON LARGE INTEGRATED PLATFORMS

Platform recently modernized

Large and well located platform

Recent investments to increase Gasoil yields and reduce Gasoline yields

Improvement of petrochemical units’ energy footprint to 1st quartile.

CAPEX 2010-17 : 1,8 G€

World scale size platform in European hub 3rd largest European refinery, 2nd

petrochemical platform

New conversion unit under study

Gaz integration : refinery => cracker

CAPEX 2010-17 : 2,7 G€

NORMANDIE France

ANTWERP Belgium

ORGANIZATION SYNERGIES IMPROVING COMPETITIVENESS

OUR RESPONSABILITY = TO ADAPT

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Page 10: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

DEVELOP ASSETS ON ADVANTAGED FEEDSTOCK IN MIDDLE EAST AND POSITIONS TO GROW IN ASIA

New 400 kb/d full-conversion refinery integrated with petrochemicals • Dedicated Arab Heavy crude supply • No heavy fuel production • Gradual start-up from Q1 2013 • EPC 9.6 B$ • Planned IPO

Projects building on integrated position • Condensate refinery expansion (x2) • Debottlenecking of Qapco and RLOC

ethane-based crackers • New 300 kt/y LDPE unit start-up

in 2012 • Debottlenecking of LLDPE unit

Jubail Saudi Arabia

Ras Laffan / Messaied Qatar

Daesan South Korea

Expanding and high-grading a world-class facility

• New condensate splitter and aromatic complex

• New EVA unit: 240 kt/y • Total cost 1.8 B$ • Integrated platform :

50% chemicals, 50% petroleum products (jet fuel, diesel)

Partner Saudi Aramco Partner Qatar Petroleum Partner Samsung

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Page 11: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

93

90

94

average 2006-11

2015 average 1998-2002

AVAILABILITY, KEY TO INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE

Capturing margin through 94% availability target by 2015

% Refining and steam cracker availability

Back to industrial fundamentals

• An ambitious but realistic target

• Refocus management and teams on availability priority

• Systematic vulnerability assessment and action plans

• Control turnaround duration

• Benefit from expertise pooling

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Page 12: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

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PROFITABILITY IMPROVEMENT ROADMAP

+1.5% +1%

+2%

+2.5%

6%

13%

Major projects on main

platforms Including

~400 M$ from improved

efficiencies

~250 M$ from synergies and

benefits of restructuring

Specialty chemicals

Portfolio changes

Efficiencies / synergies

2010 2015

In 2010 environment : ERMI 27 $/t, mid-cycle for petrochemicals, $/€ 1.33

Port Arthur, Antwerp, Normandy, Qatar, Daesan, Jubail

Cepsa, Dunkirk, Resins…

Page 13: Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development ... · Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research . Refining & Chemicals . ... for extra heavy oil ... cracking •Studying ethane

QUESTIONMARKS AND CHALLENGES FOR A MAJOR REFINER

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• Availability and price of key crudes and conversion feedstocks

• US shale hydrocarbons (magnitude, logistics)

• Consumption trends (efficiency, switch to gas, bottom-of-the-barrel)

• Regulatory uncertainties (specifications, bio components, industrial emissions)

Markets

•Aging industrial installations and logistics

• Skills and know-how

Operations

People