NAFTA  +  20:      

An  Assessment  of    Intended  and  Unintended  Effects  

Patterns  of  Inequality  Within  and  Between  Mexico,  USA  &  Canada    

Why  use  the  Human  Development  Index  (HDI)    to  assess  Mexico’s  progress  during  20  years  of  NAFTA?    

 •  It  is  dif(icult  to  assess  how  much  NAFTA  has  affected  jobs,  salaries,  well-­‐being,  etc…  

•  HDI  goes  beyond  macroeconomic  indicators  because  it  is  a  composite  measure  of  health,  education  and  income.  It  is  an  alternative  to  GDP  growth.  (UNDP  2013)  

•  It  helps  comparisons  within  and  between  countries.    

•  Development,  however,  is  more  complex  than  HDI  indicators.  For  example,  HDI  does  not  re(lect  political  participation  or  gender  inequalities.    

Using  HDI  

The  Human  Development  Index  combines  indicators  of  life  expectancy,  educational  attainment,  and  income  creating  a  more  robust  indicator  for  development.        

Dimensiones Long and Healthy Life Education Standard of Living

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Indicators Life expectancy at

birth !

Mean years of

schooling Expected years of

schooling Per cápita Gross National

Income (GNI in US$)

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Dimension Index Health Index

Education Index

Income Index

Human Development Index

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Composition  of  HDI  

Mexico’s  HDI  has  grown  since  the  1980s,  although  larger  growth  rates  can  be  perceived  since  1990s  (NAFTA,  democratic  transition,  …).  Since  2000,  growth  has  been  slower.  

    1980/1990   1990/2000   2000/2010   2000/2012  

HDI  annual  avrage  growth  rate   0.89   1.00   0.64   0.59  

Mexico’s  HDI  Growth    

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0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Inde

x Va

lue

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CubaMexicoUruguay

Human Development Index1980−2012

Source: http://www.undp.org/

Mexico’s  HDI  Growth  Compared    

After  rising  precipitously,  the  percentage  of  people  in  extreme  poverty  measured  by  income  has  diminished  to  levels  similar  to  1994.      NAFTA  appears  to  have  had  little  effect  on  the  lowest  parts  of  the  pyramid.    

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30

40

50

60

70

1995 2000 2005 2010Year

Perc

enta

ge o

f Pop

ulat

ion

in P

over

ty

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Extreme PovertyRelative Poverty

Percentage of Popultation in Poverty by Income1992−2012

http://www.coneval.gob.mx/

Mexico’s  Poverty  Rate  

HDI  varies  widely  within  Mexico.  Even  at  state  level  there  are  great  differences.  Chiapas  shares  an  HDI  with  countries  such  as  Iran  or  Peru;  in  contrast,  Mexico  City  is  close  to  Germany,  Netherlands  and  the  US.  

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year

Inde

x Va

lue

ChiapasMexico CityNuevo LeonNational

Human Development Index in MexicoEstimation Based on Past Methodologie: 2000−2010

Source: http://www.undp.org.mx/

Variation  in  HDI  by  States    

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5

10

15

20

25

30

Low Medium High Very High

Cou

nt

HDI Levels by State2010

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5

10

15

20

25

30

Low Medium High Very High

Health Levels by State2010

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5

10

15

20

25

30

Low Medium High Very High

Cou

nt

Income Levels by State2010

Levels:

Low

Medium

High

Very High

Source: http://www.undp.org.mx

Today,  8  out  of  32  federal  entities  are  in  “Medium”  HDI  levels,  23  are  in  “High”  HDI  levels  and  only  Mexico  City  is  in  “Very  High”  levels  

Variation  in  HDI  

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0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1980 1990 2000 2010Year

HD

I

Country●

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CanadaMexicoUnited States

Human Development Index1980−2012

Source: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data

Variation  in  HDI,  by  Country  

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0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Inde

x Va

lue Country

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CanadaMexicoUnited States

Income Index1980−2012

Source: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data

Income  remains  the  biggest  gap  between  the  three  countries.    

Income  Variation  in  HDI,  by  Country  

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0.8

0.9

1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Inde

x Va

lue Country

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CanadaMexicoUnited States

Health Index1980−2012

Source: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data

Mexico  has  closed  the  gap  in  health  between  it  and  the  US  and  Canada.  

Closing  the  Health  Gap  

Mexico  had  also  closed  the  gap  in  education,  although  not  nearly  as  much.  

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0.6

0.8

1.0

1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Inde

x Va

lue Country

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CanadaMexicoUnited States

Education Index1980−2012

Source: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data

Closing  the  Education  Gap