Municipal Water District of Orange County

2015 Water Supply Report

February 10, 2015

Local Precipitation – FY to Date

*As of 2/09/2015 Precipitation was 3 inches below our average for End of February

1969-70

1970-71

1971-72

1972-73

1973-74

1974-75

1975-76

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

1979-80

1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014-15, 6.13 Inches

Average 9.6 Inches

Fiscal Year to Date Rainfall in Orange County, Ca Vs Previous YearsSanta Ana Civic Center Gauge #121

PRECIPITATION

Cumulative Year-to-Date 15 yr. Average Annual Rainfall: 13.74” Average: 6.70” 3.5-Year Deficit: 22.79” (2011-12 to Present)2014-15: 6.13”

Annual Precipitation

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-150

5

10

15

20

25

30

8.06

14.87

3.82

14.57

8.41

29.06

8.51

2.19

9.46 9.88

16.82

21.39

8.27

6.36

4.37

6.13

Average Rainfall 13.74 inches

Drought

Annual Precipitation Statistics

Rain

fall

(Inch

es)

Rainfall Comparison (5 Years)

* Overall December rainfall was above average but January and February have been very dry so far resulting in below average precipitation for the year.

October November December January February March April May June July August September0

5

10

15

20

25

Historical Average

2014-15

2013-14

2010-11 El Nino

2011-122012-13

Santa Ana Rainfall Historical Comparison

Rain

fall

(inch

es)

Rainfall Outlook (As Early February)

October November December January February March April May June July August September0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2014-15 Actual

If Normal Conditions Persist (Historical Monthly Averages)

If Dry Conditions Persist (*Repeat of 2013-14 Condi-

tions)

If Extremely Wet Conditions Persist (*Max Monthly Rainfall

going back to 97-98)

Santa Ana Rainfall 2014-15 Outlook

Rain

fall

(inch

es)

2015 vs. 2014 Temperatures

• Monthly temperatures in 2014 were hotter than average with January, May, September and October being the highest. ~2015 has started off very warm.

• Orange County in 2014: 2.4 degrees above 15 year average at John Wayne Airport

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95Extremely Warm in 2014

and 2015Very Warm Spring in 2014

Warm Fall months in 2014

75

7174

77

8280

85 8689

84

78

69

7477

Monthly Average Maximum Temperatures

Normal 2014 Actual 2015

Tem

pera

ture

(oF)

Sierra Nevada Accumulated Precipitation

1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep0

10

20

30

40

50Accumulated Precipitation (8-Station Precip Index)

Historical Average Water Year14-15

INCH

ES

102% of Normal29.9 Inches

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP02468

10121416

3.7 3.9

15.2

0.3

6.7

Monthly Precipitation (8 Station Precip Index)

Historical Average Monthly Total

INCH

ES

7 Inch Sur-plus -9 Inch Deficit

Statewide Reservoir ElevationsAs of February 9, 2015

~Both Oroville and San Luis Reservoirs have more water this time of year compared to last year at the same time.

- 500.0

1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0 3,000.0 3,500.0 4,000.0 Lake Oroville

Historical Average Daily Storage

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

San Luis Reservior

Historical Average Daily Storage

70% of Normal38% of normal Last

Year

Colorado River Basin Snowpack

10/110

/1410

/27 11/911

/22 12/512

/1812

/31 1/13

1/26 2/8 2/2

1 3/6 3/19 4/1 4/1

44/2

75/1

05/2

3 6/5 6/18 7/1 7/1

47/2

7 8/9 8/22 9/4 9/1

79/3

00

5

10

15

20

25

Snowpack Water Equivalent

Average Actual

Inch

es

80% of Avg

April Historical Peak

Colorado River Colorado River Reservoir ElevationsAs of Early February 2015

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-163,5003,5253,5503,5753,6003,6253,650Lake Powell

Feet

Historical Projection

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-161,0601,0701,0801,0901,1001,1101,1201,1301,1401,1501,1601,1701,180

Lake Mead

Feet

Surplus Trigger (1,145)

Shortage Trigger (1,075)

1,088 Feet

Projection

Historical

RESERVOIR STORAGE – February 2015

State Water Project “Table A” Allocation

2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

25%

60%

30%

5%10%

80%

65%

35%

5%

15 %

Initial AllocationFinal Allocation

National Weather Service 3 Month Weather Outlook (Feb-Apr)

50%-30% chance of above average Temperature for

California

40%- 30% chance of above average rainfall for Southern California

* NOAA is predicting greater chances of warm and wet weather for the rest of the 2015 winter

Current Drought Conditions

*As of Early February 2015 Extreme and Exceptional Drought Condition remain through most of California

Exceptional Drought

Extreme Drought

Severe Drought

Drought Conditions for CaliforniaDecember 2011 June 2012 December 2012 June 2013

December 2013 June 2014 December 2014 January 27th 2015

Category Description

D-0Abnormally

Dry

D-1Moderate Drought

D-2Severe Drought

D-3Extreme Drought

D-4Exceptional

Drought

February 3rd, 2015

Winter Drought Outlook

*Drought Conditions look to remain but improve in Southern California by April 30th 2015

*Drought Conditions look to persist or intensify in Northern California by April 30th 2015

Normal SWP Below Normal Dry SWP40% Allocation 20% Allocation 20% Allocation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CRA 1.0 MAF CRA 1.0 MAF CRA 1.0 MAF

SWP 1.0 MAFSWP 0.8 MAF

SWP 0.4 MAF

Shortage of 0.2 MAF

Shortage of 0.6 MAF

MAF

Expected MET Demand Level

Chances of Allocations in 2015

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