Multinational Planning Augmentation Team

Multinational Planning Multinational Planning Augmentation TeamAugmentation Team

Multinational Planning Multinational Planning Augmentation TeamAugmentation Team

Course of Action Course of Action AnalysisAnalysis

Course of Action Course of Action AnalysisAnalysis

PurposePurposePurposePurpose

Define course of action (COA) analysis and Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning processits role in the crisis action planning process

Discuss the associated task stepsDiscuss the associated task steps Identify the products resulting from COA Identify the products resulting from COA

analysisanalysis Provide lessons learned from previous Provide lessons learned from previous

exercises and operationsexercises and operations

Define course of action (COA) analysis and Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning processits role in the crisis action planning process

Discuss the associated task stepsDiscuss the associated task steps Identify the products resulting from COA Identify the products resulting from COA

analysisanalysis Provide lessons learned from previous Provide lessons learned from previous

exercises and operationsexercises and operations

ReferencesReferencesReferencesReferences

JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 1 Feb 1995JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 1 Feb 1995

JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and

Procedures, 13 Jan 1999Procedures, 13 Jan 1999

JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and

Procedures), Annex P, Aug 1993Procedures), Annex P, Aug 1993

CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide,

15 Apr 9715 Apr 97

JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 1 Feb 1995JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 1 Feb 1995

JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and

Procedures, 13 Jan 1999Procedures, 13 Jan 1999

JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and

Procedures), Annex P, Aug 1993Procedures), Annex P, Aug 1993

CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide,

15 Apr 9715 Apr 97

Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCCRRIISSIISS

CCRRIISSIISS

IISituationSituation

DevelopmentDevelopment

IISituationSituation

DevelopmentDevelopment

IIIICrisisCrisis

AssessmentAssessment

IIIICrisisCrisis

AssessmentAssessment

IVIVCourse of Course of

ActionActionSelectionSelection

IVIVCourse of Course of

ActionActionSelectionSelection

VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning

VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning

WarningWarningOrderOrder

WarningWarningOrderOrder

PlanningPlanningOrderOrder

PlanningPlanningOrderOrder

AlertAlertOrderOrderAlertAlertOrderOrder

ExecuteExecuteOrderOrder

ExecuteExecuteOrderOrder

OPORD OPORD & &

Deployment Deployment Data BaseData Base

OPORD OPORD & &

Deployment Deployment Data BaseData Base

VIVIExecutionExecution

VIVIExecutionExecution

And/orAnd/orAnd/orAnd/or

IIMission Analysis/Mission Analysis/Restated MissionRestated Mission IIII

Course of ActionCourse of ActionDevelopmentDevelopment

IIIICourse of ActionCourse of Action

DevelopmentDevelopment IIIIIIAnalysis of Analysis of OpposingOpposing

Courses of ActionCourses of Action

IIIIIIAnalysis of Analysis of OpposingOpposing

Courses of ActionCourses of Action IVIVComparison of OwnComparison of OwnCourses of ActionCourses of Action

IVIVComparison of OwnComparison of OwnCourses of ActionCourses of Action VV

Commander’Commander’ss

DecisionDecision

VVCommander’Commander’

ssDecisionDecision

IIICourse of

ActionDevelopment

Commander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process

Courses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action Analysis

The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each

proposedproposed friendlyfriendly COA as though executed against the most COA as though executed against the most

probable and most challenging or dangerous potential probable and most challenging or dangerous potential

change in the situation (environment or belligerent action). change in the situation (environment or belligerent action).

This analysis illustrates that the commander considered the This analysis illustrates that the commander considered the

most significant and influential aspects of the situation.most significant and influential aspects of the situation.

The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each

proposedproposed friendlyfriendly COA as though executed against the most COA as though executed against the most

probable and most challenging or dangerous potential probable and most challenging or dangerous potential

change in the situation (environment or belligerent action). change in the situation (environment or belligerent action).

This analysis illustrates that the commander considered the This analysis illustrates that the commander considered the

most significant and influential aspects of the situation.most significant and influential aspects of the situation.

Determine the probable effect of the most probable & most Determine the probable effect of the most probable & most challenging or dangerous change in the situation on the challenging or dangerous change in the situation on the success of each friendly COAsuccess of each friendly COA

Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashionConduct this analysis in an orderly fashion

– By time phasingBy time phasing– Geographic locationGeographic location– Functional eventFunctional event– Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons downConsider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down

Determine the probable effect of the most probable & most Determine the probable effect of the most probable & most challenging or dangerous change in the situation on the challenging or dangerous change in the situation on the success of each friendly COAsuccess of each friendly COA

Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashionConduct this analysis in an orderly fashion

– By time phasingBy time phasing– Geographic locationGeographic location– Functional eventFunctional event– Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons downConsider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down

Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs

Consider crisis termination issues; think Consider crisis termination issues; think through own action, consequences of through own action, consequences of our action, counteractionour action, counteraction

Conclude with: Conclude with: – Revalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibilityRevalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibility– Determine additional requirementsDetermine additional requirements– Make modificationsMake modifications– List advantages and disadvantages of each COAList advantages and disadvantages of each COA

Consider crisis termination issues; think Consider crisis termination issues; think through own action, consequences of through own action, consequences of our action, counteractionour action, counteraction

Conclude with: Conclude with: – Revalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibilityRevalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibility– Determine additional requirementsDetermine additional requirements– Make modificationsMake modifications– List advantages and disadvantages of each COAList advantages and disadvantages of each COA

Analysis of Opposing COAs (cont)Analysis of Opposing COAs (cont)Analysis of Opposing COAs (cont)Analysis of Opposing COAs (cont)

Task StepsTask StepsTask StepsTask StepsGather theTools

Gather theTools List

AssumptionsListAssumptions

Critical Events& Decision PointsCritical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethodAnalysisMethod

RecordingMethodRecordingMethod

Analyze & AssessAnalyze & Assess

RiskAssessmentRiskAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis

Task StepsTask StepsTask StepsTask StepsGather theTools ListList

AssumptionsAssumptionsListListAssumptionsAssumptions

Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision PointsCritical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points

AnalysisAnalysisMethodMethodAnalysisAnalysisMethodMethod

RecordingRecordingMethodMethodRecordingRecordingMethodMethod

Analyze Analyze & Assess& AssessAnalyze Analyze & Assess& Assess

RiskRiskAssessmentAssessmentRiskRiskAssessmentAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateRevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis

Gather the ToolsGather the ToolsGather the ToolsGather the Tools

Friendly COAsFriendly COAs The most probable & most challenging or dangerous The most probable & most challenging or dangerous

change in the situation and / or belligerent COAschange in the situation and / or belligerent COAs Combined operations area depictionCombined operations area depiction Representation of friendly force distribution and Representation of friendly force distribution and

probable threatsprobable threats Representation of environmental/civil conditionsRepresentation of environmental/civil conditions Synchronization MatrixSynchronization Matrix Action-Consequence-Counteraction matrixAction-Consequence-Counteraction matrix Identify and review existing limitationsIdentify and review existing limitations

Friendly COAsFriendly COAs The most probable & most challenging or dangerous The most probable & most challenging or dangerous

change in the situation and / or belligerent COAschange in the situation and / or belligerent COAs Combined operations area depictionCombined operations area depiction Representation of friendly force distribution and Representation of friendly force distribution and

probable threatsprobable threats Representation of environmental/civil conditionsRepresentation of environmental/civil conditions Synchronization MatrixSynchronization Matrix Action-Consequence-Counteraction matrixAction-Consequence-Counteraction matrix Identify and review existing limitationsIdentify and review existing limitations

Task StepsTask StepsTask StepsTask StepsGather Gather thetheToolsTools

Gather Gather thetheToolsTools List

Assumptions

Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision PointsCritical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points






List AssumptionsList AssumptionsList AssumptionsList Assumptions

List the assumptions made during List the assumptions made during

mission analysismission analysis

Validity:Validity:– Is the assumption necessary?Is the assumption necessary?

– Will the result change without the Will the result change without the

assumption?assumption?

Logical, realistic, stated positivelyLogical, realistic, stated positively

List the assumptions made during List the assumptions made during

mission analysismission analysis

Validity:Validity:– Is the assumption necessary?Is the assumption necessary?

– Will the result change without the Will the result change without the

assumption?assumption?

Logical, realistic, stated positivelyLogical, realistic, stated positively




Critical Events& Decision Points






List Known Critical Events and List Known Critical Events and Decision Points Decision Points

List Known Critical Events and List Known Critical Events and Decision Points Decision Points

Critical eventsCritical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis are essential tasks that require detailed analysis

Decision pointsDecision points identify decisions the commander must make identify decisions the commander must make

to ensure timelyto ensure timely

execution and synchronizationexecution and synchronization

TimeTime available for analysis affects length of the critical events available for analysis affects length of the critical events

listlist

Critical eventsCritical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis are essential tasks that require detailed analysis

Decision pointsDecision points identify decisions the commander must make identify decisions the commander must make

to ensure timelyto ensure timely

execution and synchronizationexecution and synchronization

TimeTime available for analysis affects length of the critical events available for analysis affects length of the critical events

listlist





Analysis Method





Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis

Computer AssistedComputer Assisted– Integrated theater management modelIntegrated theater management model– Tactical warfare modelTactical warfare model– Joint conflict modelJoint conflict model

ManualManual– Deliberate timeline analysisDeliberate timeline analysis– Operational phasingOperational phasing– Critical eventsCritical events

Computer AssistedComputer Assisted– Integrated theater management modelIntegrated theater management model– Tactical warfare modelTactical warfare model– Joint conflict modelJoint conflict model

ManualManual– Deliberate timeline analysisDeliberate timeline analysis– Operational phasingOperational phasing– Critical eventsCritical events






RecordingMethod




Select Technique to Record and Select Technique to Record and Display AnalysisDisplay Analysis

Select Technique to Record and Select Technique to Record and Display AnalysisDisplay Analysis

TechniquesTechniques– Narrative techniqueNarrative technique

– Sketch and note techniqueSketch and note technique

– Analysis matrixAnalysis matrix

TechniquesTechniques– Narrative techniqueNarrative technique

– Sketch and note techniqueSketch and note technique

– Analysis matrixAnalysis matrix

ConsiderationsConsiderations– Assets availableAssets available

– Time availableTime available

ConsiderationsConsiderations– Assets availableAssets available

– Time availableTime available







Analyze & Assess


RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis

Wargame the Operation and Wargame the Operation and Assess ResultsAssess Results

Wargame the Operation and Wargame the Operation and Assess ResultsAssess Results

Visualize the flow of operationsVisualize the flow of operations

Assess the CTF performance Assess the CTF performance two echelons downtwo echelons down

““Action-Consequence-Counteraction”Action-Consequence-Counteraction”

Visualize the flow of operationsVisualize the flow of operations

Assess the CTF performance Assess the CTF performance two echelons downtwo echelons down

““Action-Consequence-Counteraction”Action-Consequence-Counteraction”

Synchronization MatrixSynchronization MatrixTIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT

PROBABLE THREAT

DECISION POINTS

CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER

OPN FIREPOWER

OPN PROTECTION

OPN INFORMATION

OPN INTEL

OPN SUPPORT

ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT

MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT

NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC

AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC

JSOTF

OTHERS

FUNCTION

JOINT

AREAS

COMPONENTS

D-DAY/H-HOUR

D + 1 D + 2

Simplified Sync MatrixSimplified Sync MatrixACTOR

CTF

CARFOR

CNAVFOR

CAFFOR

CMARFOR

CSOTF

CPOTF

EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENTCOMMENT COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT

Sample Analysis WorksheetSample Analysis Worksheet

SEQ-UENCENUMBER

ACTION CONSE-QUENCES

COUNTER-ACTION

ASSETS TIME DECISION POINT

CCIR REMARKS

CRITICAL EVENT:

Large PopulationW/O Shelter increasessickness

Action/Reaction/CounteractionAction/Reaction/Counteraction

ACTION CONSEQUENCE COUNTERACTION

1ST Priority isProvide MedicalSupport

Modify TPFDD to allow CTFto provide shelter and prioritize medical care.

Advantages & DisadvantagesAdvantages & Disadvantages

Advantages Disadvantages

COA 1

Single lift in threatened cities

Almost no footprint

Duration of Operations

Weather restriction

Security is HN Force

Ability to pick up in outlying areas

Advantages & DisadvantagesAdvantages & Disadvantages

Advantages Disadvantages

COA 1

Single lift in threatened cities

Almost no footprint

Duration of Ops

Modifications 1. Inf Bn to conduct evac via land transport2. Branch: CARFOR uses helos to transport3. CSOTF assemble and deliver evacuees

Weather restriction

Security is HN Force

Ability to pick up outlying areas

Results of AnalysisResults of AnalysisResults of AnalysisResults of Analysis

Identification of advantages and disadvantages of Identification of advantages and disadvantages of

each friendly COAeach friendly COA

Identification of additional assets required (if any)Identification of additional assets required (if any)

Refinements or modifications to the COARefinements or modifications to the COA

Risks and actions to reduce the risk at eachRisks and actions to reduce the risk at each

geographic location or functional eventgeographic location or functional event

Adjustments to any established control measuresAdjustments to any established control measures

Identification of advantages and disadvantages of Identification of advantages and disadvantages of

each friendly COAeach friendly COA

Identification of additional assets required (if any)Identification of additional assets required (if any)

Refinements or modifications to the COARefinements or modifications to the COA

Risks and actions to reduce the risk at eachRisks and actions to reduce the risk at each

geographic location or functional eventgeographic location or functional event

Adjustments to any established control measuresAdjustments to any established control measures

Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)

Deployment requirementsDeployment requirements

Synchronization requirementsSynchronization requirements

Estimate of the duration of critical events as Estimate of the duration of critical events as

well as the operation as a wholewell as the operation as a whole

Required support from outside of the CTFRequired support from outside of the CTF

Requirements for logistic supportRequirements for logistic support

Clear picture of command relationshipsClear picture of command relationships

branches and sequelsbranches and sequels

Deployment requirementsDeployment requirements

Synchronization requirementsSynchronization requirements

Estimate of the duration of critical events as Estimate of the duration of critical events as

well as the operation as a wholewell as the operation as a whole

Required support from outside of the CTFRequired support from outside of the CTF

Requirements for logistic supportRequirements for logistic support

Clear picture of command relationshipsClear picture of command relationships

branches and sequelsbranches and sequels

Critical information required to support decision Critical information required to support decision pointspoints

Additional commander’s decision pointsAdditional commander’s decision points

Measures of effectiveness for each phaseMeasures of effectiveness for each phase

Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillancesurveillance

Identification of component tasksIdentification of component tasks

Task Organization requirementsTask Organization requirements

Critical information required to support decision Critical information required to support decision pointspoints

Additional commander’s decision pointsAdditional commander’s decision points

Measures of effectiveness for each phaseMeasures of effectiveness for each phase

Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillancesurveillance

Identification of component tasksIdentification of component tasks

Task Organization requirementsTask Organization requirements

Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)








RiskAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis

Conduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk Assessment

Identify risksIdentify risks

Assess risksAssess risks

Analyze acceptability of riskAnalyze acceptability of risk

Identify ways and means of risk mitigationIdentify ways and means of risk mitigation

Identify risksIdentify risks

Assess risksAssess risks

Analyze acceptability of riskAnalyze acceptability of risk

Identify ways and means of risk mitigationIdentify ways and means of risk mitigation









Course of Action AnalysisCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis Revalidate

RevalidateRevalidateRevalidateRevalidate

Suitable (Adequate)Suitable (Adequate):: Will the COA accomplish the Will the COA accomplish the

mission when carried out successfully, In other mission when carried out successfully, In other

words, is it aimed at the right objectives?words, is it aimed at the right objectives?

FeasibleFeasible:: Do we have the required resources and Do we have the required resources and

can those resources be made available in time?can those resources be made available in time?

AcceptableAcceptable:: Even though the COA will accomplish Even though the COA will accomplish

the mission and we have the required resources, is it the mission and we have the required resources, is it

worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, worth the cost in term of possible losses (military,

time, political, etc.)?time, political, etc.)?

Suitable (Adequate)Suitable (Adequate):: Will the COA accomplish the Will the COA accomplish the

mission when carried out successfully, In other mission when carried out successfully, In other

words, is it aimed at the right objectives?words, is it aimed at the right objectives?

FeasibleFeasible:: Do we have the required resources and Do we have the required resources and

can those resources be made available in time?can those resources be made available in time?

AcceptableAcceptable:: Even though the COA will accomplish Even though the COA will accomplish

the mission and we have the required resources, is it the mission and we have the required resources, is it

worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, worth the cost in term of possible losses (military,

time, political, etc.)?time, political, etc.)?

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities

first.first. Analyze the end state and transition.Analyze the end state and transition. Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged

down. First cut thoughts only.down. First cut thoughts only. The purpose of analysis is to identify The purpose of analysis is to identify

advantages and disadvantages, advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe not to prescribe component reactions.component reactions.

During the COA analysis, the staff During the COA analysis, the staff must not must not compare friendly COAscompare friendly COAs. The COAs will be . The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.

Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first.first.

Analyze the end state and transition.Analyze the end state and transition. Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged

down. First cut thoughts only.down. First cut thoughts only. The purpose of analysis is to identify The purpose of analysis is to identify

advantages and disadvantages, advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe not to prescribe component reactions.component reactions.

During the COA analysis, the staff During the COA analysis, the staff must not must not compare friendly COAscompare friendly COAs. The COAs will be . The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?

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Multinational Planning Augmentation Team