MPR 2010:3 101025. Figure 1.01. World GDP Annual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast

MPR 2010:3101025

Figure 1.01. World GDPAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Sources: IMF and the RiksbankNote. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.02. Development of GDP in different regions and countries

Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Sweden

Euro area

USA

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.03. Consumer pricesAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-1

0

1

2

3

4Sweden

TCW-weighted

Sources: National soruces and the RiksbankNote: In Sweden's case this refers to CPIF inflation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.04. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

90%

75%

50%

Outcome

Forecast

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 1.05. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-1

0

1

2

3

490%75%50%OutcomeForecast


Figure 1.06. Prog.1 Repo rate with uncertainty bands

Per cent, quarterly averages

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 1.07. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5



Figure 1.08. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market

participantsPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5Repo rate

Forward rate 26 August 2010

Forward rate 18 October 2010

Repo rate, forecast

Survey, Prospera average, 13 October 2010

Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 1.09. Monetary policy expectations in the euro area and the USA

Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5

6FED fundsFED funds 18 October 2010FED funds 26 August 2010ECB refi rateECB refi rate 18 OctoberECB refi rate 26 August 2010

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate, which is not always equivalent with the official policy rate.

Figure 1.10. Unemployment in the USAPer cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

52 62 72 82 92 02 12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 1.11. Unit labour costs and core inflation in the USAAnnual percentage change

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Unit labour costs

Core inflation

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNote. Core inflation measured as the CPI excluding energy and food.

Figure 1.12. General government financial balance

Per cent of GDP

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Swed

en

Euro a

rea

USA

United K

ingdom

Ger

man

y

France

Spain

Norway

Icel

and

Gre

ece

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

252007

2008

2009

Sources: IMF and Statistics Sweden

Figure 1.13. Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the euro area and USA

GDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110USA

Euro area

Sweden

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, SCB and the Riksbank

Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 1.14. HICP in the euro areaAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5TotalExcluding energy, food, alcohol and tobaccoExcluding energy and unprocessed food

Source: Eurostat

Figure 1.15. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

October

September

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.16. GDP by expenditureQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-

adjusted data

Source: Statistics Sweden

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

07 08 09 10

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Private consumption

Gross fixed capital formation

Export

Public consumption

Import

Figure 1.17. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

September

October

Source: The RiksbankNote. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.18. Policy ratesPer cent, quarterly changes

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sweden

TCW-weighted

Sources: National sources and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.19. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports

Annual percentage change

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Swedish exports

Swedish export market

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The points refer to the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.

Figure 1.20. Investment ratioPer cent of GDP, current prices

14

16

18

20

22

24

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Source: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Four-quarter moving average. Points represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.

Figure 1.21. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio

Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16Consumption (left scale)Disposable income (left scale)Saving ratio (right scale)

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.22. Confidence indicators for households

Net figures

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Macro index (Sweden's economy)

Micro index (own finances)

Households confidence indicator

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

Figure 1.23. Number of hours workedMillions, seasonally-adjusted data

1720

1740

1760

1780

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

1720

1740

1760

1780

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

September

October

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.24. Labour force and number of employed

Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200Employed, 16-64 years

Employed, 15-74 years

Labour force, 16-64 years

Labour force, 15-74 years

Figure 1.25. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data


Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Unemployment, 16-64 years

Unemployment, 15-74 years

October

September

Figure 1.26. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labour

Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

Source: National Insitute of Economic Research

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Manufacturing industry

Construction sector

Retail trade

Private sector industries

Business sector

Figure 1.27. GDP-gap and RU indicatorPercentage deviation from potential level


Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from the trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick Prescott filter. The GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from the trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU-indicator is normalized so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

GDP (HP)

GDP (PF)

RU indicator

Figure 1.28. Hours gapPercentage deviation from potential level


Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick Prescott filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank's assumed trend for the number of hours worked. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Hours gap (HP)

Hours gap

Figure 1.29. Employment and labour force participation rates

Employment and labour force as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year, seasonally-adjusted data


Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86Employment rate, SeptemberEmployment rate, OctoberLabour force participation rate, SeptemberLabour force participation rate, October

Figure 1.30. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole

Annual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

ProductivityLabour cost per hourUnit labour cost

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.31. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

CPI

CPIF

CPIF excluding energy

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.32. HICP in the euro area and in Sweden


Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. HICP is the Harmonised Index for Consumer Prices and is used to compare inflation rates in Europe. It's composition is similar to the CPIF. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5Sweden

Euro area

Figure 1.33. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0September

October

Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 1.34. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-2

-1

0

1

2

3September

October

Source: The Riksbank

Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 2.01. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated

in annualised terms

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Main scenario

A "double dip" abroad

Sources: National sources and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure 2.02. CPI abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Main scenario



Figure 2.03. Interest rate abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5

Main scenario



Figure 2.04. CPIFAnnual percentage change

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Main scenario


Figure 2.05. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised

terms

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


Main scenario



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3


Main scenario



0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5Main scenario


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Anm. Streckad linje avser Riksbankens prognos.


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Faster domestic upswing

Main scenario



terms, seasonally adjusted data

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


Main scenario


Figure 2.10. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Main scenario



0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5Main scenario



Figure 2.12. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5Main scenarioHigher interest rateLower interest rate



terms, seasonally adjusted data

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Higher interest rateLower interest rateMain scenario



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Higher interest rate

Lower interest rate

Main scenario


Figure 2.15. UnemploymentPercent

5

6

7

8

9

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

5

6

7

8

9

Higher interest rate

Lower interest rate

Main scenario


Figure 2.16. Production gap (GDP)Percentage deviation from potential level

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6Higher interest rate

Lower interest rate

Main scenario


Figure 2.17. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Higher interest rateLower interest rateMain scenario


Figure 2.18. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5Higher interest rateLower interest rateMain scenario


Figure 3.01. Government bond rates in various countries

Percent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

SwedenEuro area (Germany)USAUnited Kingdom

Source: Reuters EcoWin Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity

Figure 3.02. Difference between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis

spread)Basis points

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

Note. The spread is calculated as the difference between the three-month interbank rate and the three-month overnight index swap.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Sweden

Euro area

USA

United Kingdom

Figure 3.03. Exchange ratesSEK per euro and dollar

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

04 05 06 07 08 09 10

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12SEK/EUR

SEK/USD

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Figure 3.04. Stock market movementsIndex, 3-1-2006 = 100

Source: Reuters EcoWin

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Sweden (OMXS)

Euro area (Euro Stoxx)

USA (S&P 500)

Emerging markets (MSCI)

Figure 3.05. World trade volumeWorld Trade Monitor index, 2000 = 100, seasonally

adjusted data

0

50

100

150

200

250

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

0

50

100

150

200

250

World trade totalEmergning economiesAdvanced economies

Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Figure 3.06. GDP in the BRIC countriesAnnual percentage change

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Brazil

Russia

India

China

Sources: IMF and National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaNote. BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China


terms, seasonally-adjusted data

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

USA

Euro area

Japan

Unitedkingdom

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Cabinet Office Japan, Eurostat och Office and National Statistics UK

Figure 3.08. Purchasing mangarer's index, manufacturing sector

Index, over 50 indicates growth

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

USAEuro areaSweden

Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank

Figure 3.09. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11Sweden

USA

Euro area

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Statistics Sweden

Figure 3.10. Consumer prices Annual percentage change

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

USA

Euro area

OECD

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD

Figure 3.11. CPI excluding energy and foodAnnual percentage change

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Euro area

USA

OECD

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD

Figure 3.12. GDP growth in the euro area’s largest economies

Quarterly growth in per cent calculated as an annual rate

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2009 kv 1 2009 kv 2 2009 kv 3 2009 kv 4 2010 kv 1 2010 kv 2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Euro area

Germany

Spain

France

Italy

Source: Eurostat

Figure 3.13. Government bond rates in various countries

Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

06 07 08 09 10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14SwedenGermanyGreeceIrelandItalySpainPortugal

Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

Figure 3.14. The Economic Tendency Indicator

Index, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

The Economic Tendency Indicator

Mean

+/- one standard deviation

Figure 3.15. Industrial production and the production of services

Index 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120Industrial production

Production of services


Figure 3.16. Mortgage rates in SwedenPercent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5-year listed mortgage rate

3-month listed mortgage rate – average

Sources: Nordea, Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, Statistics Sweden, SEB, Spintab, Stadshypotek and the Riksbanken

Note. Listed mortgages, average of the rates that Nordea, SBAB, SEB, Spintab and Stadshypotek publish in newspapers etc.

Figure 3.17. Bank lending to companies and households


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20HouseholdsCompanies


Figure 3.18. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Business sector excluding housing

Housing

Public authorities

Figure 3.19. Capacity utilisation in industry

Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

70

75

80

85

90

95

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

70

75

80

85

90

95

Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation

NIER, current capacity utilisation

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

Figure 3.20. Foreign trade with goods in fixed prices

Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Export

Import

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Three-month moving average. Fixed prices calculated by the Riksbank.

Figure 3.21. New export ordersNet figures and annual percentage change

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Orders, NIER (net figures)

Orders, Statistics Sweden (annual percentage change)

Figure 3.22. Employment, labour force and unemployment

Thousands and percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0

2

4

6

8

10

Employed (left)

Labour force (left)

Unemployment (right)

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Three-month moving averages.

Figure 3.23. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices

Thousands, seasonally adjusted data

0

20

40

60

80

100

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

0

4

8

12

16

20New vacancies (left scale)

Unfilled vacancies (left scale)

Redundancy notices (right scale)

Source: Employment service and the Riksbank

Figure 3.24. Employees in the business sector, expectations and outcome

Seasonally adjusted net figures

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30Expectations

Outcome

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research

Figure 3.25. WagesAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Public sector

Business sector

Sources: National Mediation Office and the RiksbankNote. Preliminary outcomes in the past 12 months, usually revised upwards.

Figure 3.26. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy


Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5CPI

CPIF

CPIF excluding energy

Figure 3.27. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel

Source: Intercontinental exchange and the Riksbank

Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Outcome

Futures up to and including18 October 2010

Futures up to and including26 August 2010

Figure 3.28. Commodity pricesIndex 2000 = 100, USD

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

TotalMetalsOther agricultural productsFood

Source: The Economist

Figure B01. GDP in Sweden and the worldLogarithmised index, 2007 = 100

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Sweden

Euro area

USA

TCW

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure B02. Volume of world trade, export markets and Swedish exports

Index 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180Export markets

Total Swedish exports

World trade

Sources: Netherlands Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure B03. Export volumes in Sweden, the euro area and the United StatesIndex 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Sweden Euro area

USA

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Statistics Sweden

Figure B04. General government net lending in Sweden, the euro area and the

USAPercentage of GDP

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6Sweden

Euro area

USA

Source: OECD

Figure B05. Development of central government debt in Sweden, the euro area

and the USAPercentage of GDP

40

50

60

70

80

90

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sweden

Euro area

USA

Source: OECDNote. Public gross debt.

Figure B06. Households’ saving ratio in various countries

Percentage of disposable income

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

SwedenGermanyUSASpainIreland

Sources: National statistical authorities and the OECD

Figure B07. Consumer confidence in Sweden, the euro area and the USA Number of standard deviations from mean value

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Sweden

Euro area

USA

Sources: The Conference Board, DG ECFIN and National Institute of Economic Research

Figure B08. Real house prices in various countries

Index, 1980 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Sweden

Germany

Ireland

USA

Spain

Sources: BIS, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

Figure B09. Housing investments Per cent of GDP

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Sweden

USA

Germany

Spain

Ireland

Sources: Local statistical authorities, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The data for Ireland consists of annual data.

Figure B11. Policy rates abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly mean values

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Main Scenario

Lower policy rates abroad

Source: The respective central banksNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Figure B12. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly mean values

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5

Main ScenarioLower policy rates abroadRepo rate according to forward rates


Figure B13. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150Lower policy rates abroadRepo rate according to forward ratesMain Scenario


Figure B14. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly mean values

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Lower policy rates abroadRepo rate according to forward ratesMain Scenario


Figure B15. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly mean values

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Lower policy rates abroadRepo rate according to forward ratesMain Scenario


Figure B16. Hours gapPercentage deviation from potential level

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Lower policy rates abroadRepo rate according to forward ratesMain Scenario


Figure B17. UnemploymentPer cent

5

6

7

8

9

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

5

6

7

8



Figure B18. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised

terms, seasonally-adjusted data

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-15

-10

-5

0

5



Figure B19 Outline of the production function approach

Figure B20. Solow residual and estimated TFP

Index 1980 = 100

-5.6

-5.5

-5.4

-5.3

-5.2

-5.1

-5.0

-4.9

-4.8

-4.7

-4.6

80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

-5.6

-5.5

-5.4

-5.3

-5.2

-5.1

-5.0

-4.9

-4.8

-4.7

-4.6Solow residual

Estimated TFP


Figure B21. Labour force participation, actual and potential

Percentage of the population, 16–64 years of age

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

90 95 00 05 10 15

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

Actual

Potential


Figure B23. Model assessments of long-term unemployment

Per cent of labour force

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Unemployment

SVAR

HP trend

UC Okun

UC trend-cycle


Note. SVAR is a structural VAR model. The model includes GDP and unemployment. Long-term unemployment is the level of unemployment that would have been observed in the absence of demand shocks. The cyclical variation has been filtered out of the HP trend.

Figure B23. Actual and long-term unemployment

Per cent of labour force, 16–64 years of age

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

90 95 00 05 10 15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Actual

Long-term


Figure B24. Hours worked, actual and potential

Number of hours per capita and week, 16–64 years of age

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

90 95 00 05 10 15

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

Actual

Potential

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Table A1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values

Kv 2 2010 Kv 3 2010 Kv 4 2010 Kv 4 2011 Kv 4 2012 Kv 4 2013 Repo rate 0.25 0.55 1.0 (0.9) 2.0 (2.4) 2.9 (3.3) 3.4

Source: The Riksbank

Table A2. Inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CPI -0.3 1.2 (1.1) 1.7 (1.9) 2.2 (2.5) 2.6

CPIF 1.9 2.0 (2.0) 1.3 (1.3) 1.5 (1.7) 1.9

CPIF excl. energy 2.3 1.7 (1.6) 1.5 (1.5) 1.6 (1.8) 1.9

HICP 1.9 1.8 (1.8) 1.0 (1.1) 1.3 (1.5) 1.7

Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices which does not include household mortgage costs. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A3. Summary of financial forecastsAnnual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Repo rate 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 1.7 (1.9) 2.6 (3.0) 3.3 10-year rate 3.3 2.8 (2.8) 3.1 (3.1) 3.7 (3.8) 4.3 Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100

140.2 129.1 (130.8) 121.9 (123.8) 121.4 (122.6) 122.2

General government net lending*

-1.2 0.4 (0.0) 1.4 (0.9) 1.6 (1.4) 1.2

* Per cent of GDP


Table A4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change

Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF. The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports.

Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Euro area (0,15) -4.0 1.6 (1.5) 1.3 (1.3) 1.9 (1.9) 2.2

USA (0,20) -2.6 2.7 (2.6) 2.4 (2.2) 3.0 (2.9) 3.1

Japan (0,06) -5.2 2.9 (2.9) 1.3 (1.6) 1.6 (1.7) 1.8

OECD (0,57) -3.4 2.7 (2.5) 2.2 (2.2) 2.6 (2.6) 2.7

TCW-weighted (0,49) -3.8 1.9 (1.6) 1.7 (1.7) 2.0 (2.0) 2.2

World (1,00) -0.7 4.6 (4.3) 4.0 (4.0) 4.3 (4.3) 4.4

CPI 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Euroområdet (HIKP) 0.3 1.5 (1.4) 1.4 (1.3) 1.2 (1.4) 1.8 USA -0.3 1.7 (1.6) 1.5 (1.5) 1.3 (1.6) 1.5 Japan -1.4 -0.9 (-0.8) -0.2 (-0.2) 0.2 (0.2) 0.6

TCW-weighted 0.5 1.6 (1.5) 1.5 (1.4) 1.3 (1.5) 1.7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Policy rates in the rest of the world, TCW-weighted

0.7 (0.7) 0.5 (0.5) 0.8 (0.9) 1.3 (1.9) 2.4

Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 62 79 (77) 86 (83) 89 (86) 90 Swedish export market -13.1 10.0 (9.5) 8.0 (7.9) 6.9 (6.8) 6.4

Table A5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Private consumption -0.8 3.5 (3.3) 2.6 (2.4) 2.1 (1.9) 2.0

Public consumption 1.7 1.8 (1.2) 0.9 (1.1) 0.5 (0.6) 0.7

Gross fixed capital formation -16.0 5.6 (5.0) 8.4 (8.1) 5.4 (5.7) 5.1

Inventory investment* -1.5 2.0 (1.6) 0.4 (0.3) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1

Exports -12.4 11.7 (11.4) 8.5 (7.7) 5.5 (5.8) 5.8

Imports -13.2 14.6 (14.1) 8.6 (8.3) 5.7 (5.9) 6.1

GDP -5.1 4.8 (4.1) 3.8 (3.5) 2.5 (2.6) 2.4

GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.1 4.6 (3.9) 3.9 (3.5) 2.9 (3.0) 2.4

Final figure for domestic demand* -3.1 3.2 (2.9) 3.0 (2.9) 2.1 (2.2) 2.1

Net exports* -0.5 -0.4 (-0.3) 0.5 (0.2) 0.2 (0.3) 0.2

Current account (NA), per cent of GDP 7.3 6.2 (5.9) 6.4 (5.9) 6.5 (5.9) 6.5

*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.


Table A6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Population, aged 16-64 0.7 0.4 (0.4) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) -0.1

Potential hours worked 1.2 0.9 (0.9) 0.5 (0.5) 0.4 (0.4) 0.2

GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.1 4.6 (3.9) 3.9 (3.5) 2.9 (3.0) 2.4 Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted -2.6 1.6 (1.5) 1.5 (1.1) 0.8 (0.8) 0.5 Employed, aged 15-74 -2.1 0.9 (1.0) 1.7 (1.5) 0.9 (0.7) 0.6

Labour force, aged 15-74 0.2 1.0 (1.2) 0.7 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.2

Unemployment, aged 15-74 * 8.3 8.4 (8.5) 7.6 (7.9) 7.2 (7.6) 6.8

* Per cent of labour force


Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hourly wage, NMO 3.4 2.5 (2.6) 2.7 (2.7) 3.1 (3.1) 3.4

Hourly wage, NA 2.8 1.7 (1.9) 2.9 (2.9) 3.4 (3.3) 3.6

Employer’s contribution* -1.0 -0.1 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0

Hourly labour cost, NA 1.8 1.6 (1.8) 3.0 (2.9) 3.4 (3.3) 3.6

Productivity -2.6 2.9 (2.3) 2.3 (2.4) 2.0 (2.2) 1.9

Unit labour cost 4.5 -1.2 (-0.5) 0.6 (0.5) 1.3 (1.1) 1.7

* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A8. Alternative scenario with a ”double dip” abroad, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GDP abroad -3.8 1.8 (1.9) 0.3 (1.7) 1.8 (2.0) 2.5 (2.2) CPI abroad 0.5 1.6 (1.6) 1.3 (1.5) 1.0 (1.4) 1.4 (1.7) Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 0.7 (0.8) 0.8 (1.3) 1.8 (2.4) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100

140.2 129.1 (129.1) 121.6 (121.9) 121.8 (121.4) 123.3 (122.2)

CPIF 1.9 2.0 (2.0) 1.1 (1.3) 1.3 (1.5) 2.0 (1.9) CPI -0.3 1.2 (1.2) 1.2 (1.7) 1.7 (2.2) 2.8 (2.6) GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.1 4.6 (4.6) 3.7 (3.9) 3.1 (2.9) 2.6 (2.4) Hours gap, per cent -2.2 -1.5 (-1.5) -0.8 (-0.6) -0.2 (-0.1) 0.2 (0.2) Unemployment, per cent 8.3 8.4 (8.4) 7.6 (7.6) 7.2 (7.2) 6.8 (6.8) GDP-gap, per cent -6.4 -3.5 (-3.5) -1.3 (-1.1) 0.1 (0.0) 0.7 (0.4) Repo rate , per cent 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 1.3 (1.7) 1.9 (2.6) 2.9 (3.3)

Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets. TCW-weighted international variables.

Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A9. Alternative scenario with faster domestic upswing, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Private consumption -0.8 3.5 (3.5) 3.4 (2.6) 2.7 (2.1) 2.0 (2.0) Gross fixed capital formation -16.0 5.9 (5.6) 10.7 (8.4) 5.4 (5.4) 4.0 (5.1) Productivity -2.6 2.9 (2.9) 2.5 (2.3) 2.4 (2.0) 2.2 (1.9) Hourly labour cost 1.8 1.6 (1.6) 3.6 (3.0) 4.2 (3.4) 3.8 (3.8) Hours gap, per cent -2.2 -1.5 (-1.5) -0.4 (-0.6) 0.1 (-0.1) 0.2 (0.2) Unemployment, per cent 8.3 8.4 (8.4) 7.4 (7.6) 6.8 (7.2) 6.7 (6.8) GDP-gap, per cent -6.4 -3.5 (-3.5) -0.7 (-1.1) 0.8 (0.0) 1.4 (0.4) GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.1 4.6 (4.6) 4.2 (3.9) 3.3 (2.9) 2.6 (2.4) CPIF 1.9 2.0 (2.0) 1.5 (1.3) 1.8 (1.5) 2.0 (1.9) CPI -0.3 1.2 (1.2) 2.0 (1.7) 2.5 (2.2) 2.5 (2.6) Repo rate , per cent 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 1.9 (1.7) 3.0 (2.6) 3.4 (3.3)

Table A10. Alternative scenario with higer repo rate, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Repo rate , per cent 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 2.0 (1.7) 2.6 (2.6) 3.2 (3.3) GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.1 4.5 (4.6) 3.6 (3.9) 2.8 (2.9) 2.5 (2.4) Hours gap, per cent -2.2 -1.5 (-1.5) -0.7 (-0.6) -0.3 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.2) GDP, calendar-adjusted -6.4 -3.5 (-3.5) -1.4 (-1.1) -0.3 (0.0) 0.2 (0.4) Unemployment, per cent 8.3 8.4 (8.4) 7.7 (7.6) 7.3 (7.2) 6.9 (6.8) CPIF 1.9 2.0 (2.0) 1.1 (1.3) 1.4 (1.5) 1.9 (1.9) CPI -0.3 1.2 (1.2) 1.7 (1.7) 1.9 (2.2) 2.6 (2.6)


Table A11. Alternative scenario with lower repo rate, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Repo rate , per cent 0.7 0.4 (0.5) 1.4 (1.7) 2.6 (2.6) 3.3 (3.3) GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.1 4.6 (4.6) 4.1 (3.9) 2.9 (2.9) 2.3 (2.4) Hours gap, per cent -2.2 -1.5 (-1.5) -0.4 (-0.6) 0.1 (-0.1) 0.3 (0.2) GDP, calendar-adjusted -6.4 -3.5 (-3.5) -0.8 (-1.1) 0.3 (0.0) 0.6 (0.4) Unemployment, per cent 8.3 8.4 (8.4) 7.4 (7.6) 7.0 (7.2) 6.7 (6.8) CPIF 1.9 2.0 (2.0) 1.5 (1.3) 1.7 (1.5) 2.0 (1.9) CPI -0.3 1.2 (1.2) 1.7 (1.7) 2.4 (2.2) 2.7 (2.6)


Table B1. Minimum requirements for the composition of banks’ capital bases under Basel III

Equity capital Tier 1 capital Total capital

Minimum 4.5% 6.0% 8.0%

Conservation buffer 2.5%

Minimum plus conservation

buffer

7.0% 8.5% 10.5%

Contracyclical buffer 0 - 2.5%

Table B2. Example with a lower policy rate abroad, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 0.8 (0.8) 1.0 (1.3) 1.6 (2.4) Repo rate, per cent 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 1.5 (1.7) 2.1 (2.6) 2.8 (3.3)

Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 140.2 129.1 (129.1)

121.1 (121.9)

119.7 (121.4)

120.1 (122.2)

CPIF 1.9 2.0 (2.0) 1.0 (1.3) 1.1 (1.5) 1.7 (1.9) CPI -0.3 1.2 (1.2) 1.3 (1.7) 1.6 (2.2) 2.4 (2.6)

Hours gap, per cent -2.2 -1.5 (-1.5) -0.6 (-0.6) -0.2 (-0.1) 0.0 (0.2)

Unemployment, per cent 8.3 8.4 (8.4) 7.6 (7.6) 7.2 (7.2) 6.9 (6.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.1 4.6 (4.6) 3.8 (3.9) 2.9 (2.9) 2.4 (2.4)

Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets. TCW-weighted interest rate abroad.


Table B3. Example with repo rate according to forward rates, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 0.8 (0.8) 1.0 (1.3) 1.6 (2.4) Repo rate, per cent 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 1.5 (1.7) 1.8 (2.6) 2.1 (3.3)

Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 140.2 129.1 (129.1)

121.1 (121.9)

120.4 (121.4)

122.2 (122.2)

CPIF 1.9 2.0 (2.0) 1.0 (1.3) 1.3 (1.5) 2.1 (1.9) CPI -0.3 1.2 (1.2) 1.2 (1.7) 1.3 (2.2) 2.4 (2.6) Hours gap, per cent -2.2 -1.5 (-1.5) -0.6 (-0.6) -0.1 (-0.1) 0.5 (0.2) Unemployment, per cent 8.3 8.4 (8.4) 7.6 (7.6) 7.1 (7.2) 6.6 (6.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.1 4.6 (4.6) 3.8 (3.9) 3.1 (2.9) 3.0 (2.4)


Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets. TCW-weighted interest rate abroad.

Table B4. Decomposition of potential GDP growthAnnual percentage change

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Potential production 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.0

Of which technology 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 Of which potential capital services 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 Of which potential hours worked 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2

Of which potential average working hours -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Of which population 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Of which potential labour force participation 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Of which long-term unemployment 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Note: Note that the assumption of a slight fall in long-term unemployment provides a positive contribution to the potential hours in 2009 and 2010.

Documents

MPR 2010:3 101025. Figure 1.01. World GDP Annual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast