MPAT TE-5Mongolia

31 July – 8 August 2003

18 Jun 03

SCENARIO

Mongolia, Ayland, Beland

AYLANDAYLAND

BELANDBELAND

MONGOLIAMONGOLIA

PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINAPEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

RUSSIARUSSIA

BEIJINGBEIJING

ULAANBAATARULAANBAATARCHOYBALSANCHOYBALSAN

NOVOSIBIRSKNOVOSIBIRSK

BUFFERBUFFERZONEZONE

BARUUN URTBARUUN URT

AYLAND

BELAND

MONGOLIA

CHINA

RUSSIARUSSIA

• 1946. Ayland and Beland established. Border cuts through traditional herding area (largely in Beland) but Beland claims “disputed” area (includes city of Tamsagbulog).

• 1983-1985. Oil and Uranium discovered in disputed area. Beland claims oil resources Ayland stations significant forces in area to protect resources.

• 1997-Cross-border violence vicinity of Tamsagbulag (disputed area), southeast of Choybalson 100 dead.

• 1999-Ayland and Beland air and ground units clash in oil reserve area• 2000-Oil reserves confirmed. Beland forces mass on border.

• 2001-Beland invades Ayland, claiming “extermination” of ethnic brethren in Ayland.

• 2001-UN General Assembly denounces Beland aggression.

• 2003-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) confirmed cases in several DC camps, Choybalsan, Barun-Urt, and Tamsagbulag

Road to Crisis

• 2003-UN Secretary General sends fact finding team to Ayland; team confirms atrocities on both sides.

• 2003-Beland forces withdraw, but remain massed on border.

• 2003-Parties agree to cease fire and establishment of buffer zone, but Beland claims oil reserves. Despite agreement by Ayland and Beland governments (“Ulaanbaatar Agreement, 15 Aug 03), many in the disputed area do not support the agreement.

• 2003-Ayland appeals to UN for assistance, including MNF to maintain borders, help with internal security and humanitarian assistance. Ayland requests Mongolia as lead nation. UN Security Council passes UNSC Resolution 1527, 22 Aug 03)

Road to Crisis(continued)(continued)

• Confirms presence of rogue elements and terrorist activities , status of Dislocated Civilians, infrastructure damage.

• Notes overcrowding and epidemics in several Dislocated Civilians camps

• Confirms humanitarian assistance efforts threatened by insufficient security in DC camps

UN Assessment Team 15 Jun 03

• Terrorist activities continue in disputed area. Terrorist cells operating out of Dislocated Civilian camps.

• Thousands remain homeless and unprepared for harsh winter.• Ayland and Beland governments renounce terrorism.

• Beland blames “rogue” elements for the continued terrorist activities.

• Ayland and Beland ground forces continue to exchange fire, citing “provocations” by the other side.

• Air and ground forces from both sides aggressively patrol oil reserve area-numerous clashes.

• Due to extreme summer draught, there is very high probability of a “zud” starting in November

Situation

1 Aug 03

“Ulaanbaatar Agreement” Cessation of Hostilities between Ayland and

Beland 15 Aug 03

• Parties agree to withdraw behind current international borders (including a buffer zone) in disputed area.

• Border dispute will be referred to International Court of Justice for resolution.

• Dispute concerning resources will be referred to UN Dept of Political Affairs.

• Both parties agree to Mongolia-led multinational task force to conduct peacekeeping operations and support HA/DR efforts.

• Both parties agree to observe various international conventions concerning refugees and internally displaced persons, and agree to independent movement of NGOs etc.

30 km

30 km

Border

BUFFER ZONE

10 km

10 km

2.5 km

2.5 km

Specific conditions established in the Ulaanbaatar Agreement

Border

BUFFER ZONE

2.5 km

2.5 km

10 km

10 km

30 km

30 km

Ayland-BelandMilitary Exclusion Zone

No militaryNo weaponsNo policeNo ObservationNo Technical monitoring

CTF “Khokh Chono” control

Border

BUFFER ZONE

2.5 km

2.5 km

10 km

10 km

30 km

30 km

Ayland/BelandMilitary Restricted Zone

Military in barracksWeapons disarmedLocal policeLocal AdministrationAdmin re-supplyNo forward move

CTF “Khokh Chono” Control

Border

BUFFER ZONE

2.5 km

2.5 km

10 km

10 km

30 km

30 km

Ayland/BelandWeapons Exclusion Zone

No heavy weaponsNo air defenseMilitary permittedNo air defense radars

CTF “Khokh Chono”Monitored

UNSC Resolution 152722 Aug 03

• Acknowledges Ulaanbaatar Agreement

• Welcomes Mongolia as lead nation for MNF peace keeping force (peacekeeping and HA/DR facilitation)

• Acknowledges Mr. Baatar Dorj from Mongolia as Special Representative of the Secretary General to be overall responsible for Human Rights, Humanitarian Assistance, CIV POL

• Provides mandate for CTF– Separation of Ayland and Beland forces

– Enforce buffer zone protocol

– Support humanitarian assistance/disaster relief operations

– Support Combating Terrorism efforts

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++

++

++

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Dislocated Civilians (DC) CampsDislocated Civilians (DC) Camps31 Aug 0331 Aug 03

Total 100,000Total 100,000

Total 25,000Total 25,000

Infrastructure Damageas of

31 Aug 03

Tamsagbulag– Current population: 25K – Power plant destroyed– Oil/gas pipeline has been damaged for much of its length. Reconstruction will take at least

18 months– Water supply system damaged

Hushuu Sume – Current population: 10K– Power plant destroyed– Local hospital destroyed by terrorists (no medical personnel)– Water supply system damaged

• Power plants are coal-fired, and coal mines have been severely damaged and output is approximately 30% of normal production

• Rail system is damaged. Rail provides transportation for coal and much of the vital supply.

Zuunbulag– Current population: 15K– Power transmission lines from Baruun-Urt (capital city) destroyed– Water system severely damaged

• UNHCR • UNOCHA • WFP • WHO• IOM• ICRC• Donors• USAID• AUSAID• JICA

Relief and Related Organizations in Ayland

(Partial List) 31 Aug 03

– CARE

– MDM

– MSF

– OXFAM Australia

– National Red Cross Society-Mongolia

– People for North Asia Relief

– Pan-Steppe Network

– Ayland National Red Cross

– Beland National Red Cross

– Human Rights Watch