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Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Motor Vehicle Emissions, Fuels and Energy
beyond 2030 and towards 2050
Yasuhiro DAISHO
Professor Emeritus
Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
G20 Transport Task Meeting October 28-31, 2019
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
“How should automotive power systems be towards 2050?”
(Future Power Systems Committee, JSAE, March, 2016) 1/4
(1) The future combination of the IC engine and oil
❑Oil is the best fuel for IC engines used in motor vehicles. The value of oil will depend on its availability and/or the energy and environmental policies made by some countries in in the future. We must be ready for decreased oil supply and its increased prices.
❑Ultimately high engine efficiency should be pursued towards 2030 and beyond.
❑The use of the following alternative fuels will substantially be limited due to both their supply amounts and costs.
・Bio-fuels ・Natural gas ・CTL, GTL, BTL・Hydrogen ・Ammonia ・e-fuel, etc
2Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
“How should automotive power systems be towards 2050?”
(Future Power Systems Committee, JSAE, March, 2016) 2/4
(2) Alternative power systems and oil free energy
❑EVs will be a more realistic alternative because of diversified electricity sources and inexpensive recharging stations. EVs will mainly be used for short and medium range drives due to limited battery energy densities and high battery costs.
❑Sales of FCVs will be limited even towards 2050 due to difficulties with reducing vehicle and hydrogen costs, producing renewable hydrogen and locating hydrogen stations.
3Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
“How should automotive power systems be towards 2050?”
(Future Power Systems Committee, JSAE, March, 2016) 3/4
(3) Power systems for mid and long term
❑Plug-in HVs are one of the most realistic options in place
of IC engine vehicles and HVs. This is because the
transitions from oil to electricity and/or hydrogen should
be conducted smoothly taking into account the fact that
ordinary vehicle’s lifetime is ten to fifteen years.
❑The use of renewable electricity and hydrogen must be
increased for these transitions along with improving the
battery’s performance, locating
recharging/refueling stations and
reducing the entire costs. The
transitions will take about two
decades to come.
(4) Issues on future mobility 4Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
“How should automotive power systems be towards 2050?”
(Future Power Systems Committee, JSAE, March, 2016) 4/4
(4) Issues on future mobility
❑To mitigate the shortage of energy and global warming,
not only disseminating next generation vehicles but also
realizing a sustainable mobility society utilizing
renewables will be necessary.
❑Motorized countries should
support motorizing countries
by providing successful
policies and technologies
based on
“Mobility Innovations.”
5Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
SectorReference year
2013 (2005)2030 /
Reduction % 2013 (2005)
Industry 429 (457) 401 / △6.5 (△12.3)
Business, etc. 279 (239) 168 / △39.8 (△29.7)
Household 201 (180) 122 / △39.3 (△32.2)
Transportation 225 (240) 163 / △27.6 (△32.1)
Energy Conversion 101 (104) 73 / △27.7 (△29.8)
Total 1,235 (1,219) 927 / △24.9 (△24.0)
[ Unit: Million t-CO2 ]
Energy Related CO2 Emission Reductions in 2030
for the Paris Agreement, Japan, 2015
6Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Country Year km/L L/100 kmCO2
g/kmNote
Japan2020
(2030)
22.1
(25.4)
4.52
(3.94)
105
(91.4)( ): based on WLTC
EU**2021
(2030)
24.4
(38.6)
4.10
(2.59)
95
(60)( ): 37.5% reduction
from the 2021 level
USA*** 2025 22.5 4.44 103 abolished?
China2020
(2025)
19.8
(25.0)
5.05
(4.00)
117
(93)with “New Energy
Vehicle Program”
India 2021 20.5 4.88 113
Comparison of LDV Fuel Economy Standards
based on NEDC, ICCT 2015
NEDC: New European Driving Cycle
ICCT: The International Council on Clean Transportation
( ): Proposed
7Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards (average) in Japan
8
☆Standards in 2015 required 12% fuel
economy improvement compared to
the level in 2002.
☆Well-to-Wheel fuel economy relative to
gasoline is supposed to be evaluated
for EVs and plug-in hybrids in 2030.
Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
SIP Program: Solutions to Achieve a 50% Brake
Thermal Efficiency in Passenger Car Engines
✓Reducing mechanical losses by 50%
✓Utilizing exhaust gas energy・Increasing turbocharging efficiency・Using a thermoelectric device
✓Enhancing indicated work by
improving combustion in both engines
≪Energy Balance≫
50%
(Target)38.5~40.8%
20%
35%
4%
28~30%
16~18%
2%
2%
2%
✓Reducing heat losses by improving combustion
Exhaust losses
Cooling losses
Brake work
Mechanical losses
✓Achieved Brake Thermal Efficiency:
・Gasoline engines: 38.5% ⇒ 51.5%
・Diesel engines : 40.8% ⇒ 50.1%
“Innovative Combustion Technologies” in the Strategic Innovation Program
(SIP) sponsored by the government in FY2014-2018
☆The high efficiency engine is essential
for increasing hybrids’ fuel economy.
9Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
The Similar Programs are undertaken
in the USA and the EU.
10Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Oxidizing HCs,
CO and SOF
2NO+O2
→2NO2
4NO+4NH3+O2
→4N2+6H2O (1)
6NO2+8NH3
→7N2+12H2O (2)
NO+NO2+2NH3
→2N2+3H2O (3)
Oxidizing
slipping NH3
Urea solution (32.5%) 3-7% of the fuel
NH3 formation reaction:(NH2 )2CO+H2O → 6NH3+CO2
2NO2+C
→CO2+2NO
(>250℃)
Engine exhaust
DOC CR-DPFSCR (selective
catalytic reductionDOC
A Typical Diesel Aftertreatment System
for Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles
11Y. Daisho, Waseda University
<Issues> ❑How to reduce NOx and PM by controlling both combustion and
urea solution supply for transient driving cycles?
❑Improving low temperature conversion efficiency
❑Optimizing the quantity of urea supply ❑Compactness
❑Selection of the catalysts ❑Reducing NH3 and N2O emissions
❑Ensuring reliability and durability ❏Advanced OBD necessary
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Recent EVs Fuel Cell Vehicles
Hybrid Vehicles
Variations of Electrified Vehicles
Advanced Technologies
Batteries, Electronic Devices, Motors,
Lightweight Materials, and Engines
EVs in 1970s to 1990s
Many vehicles will be
hybridized towards
2030.
12Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Efficiencies of IC Engines and a Fuel Cell
Relative Load
Fuel Cell System
60% 70% (Hydrogen base)
Diesel Engine
40-45% → 50-55%
Gasoline Engine35-40% 45-50%
Low efficiencies at part loads
must be improved.
:Future Target
Electric Motor >90% (peak)●
Rela
tive N
et
Effic
iency
13Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
M: Motor G: GeneratorC/I: Controller / InverterB: Battery unit T: Transmission C:ClutchPs: Power splitterPi: Plug-in
: Drive / Power generation<Parallel (Mild)> 【20-50%】
<Series/Parallel (Full)> 【50-100%】<Series (Full)> 【50-100%】
B
E
B C/I
<Hybrid type> 【Improved fuel economy, %】
~ ~
E G
Pi
Ps
G
M/GC/I
Pi
M/G
: Regeneration
E
B
C
~
M/G T
C/I
Pi
C
Three Typical Hybrid Systems
Including 48V mild systems
FCVs have the similar systems
14Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Future Passenger Car Fuel Economy Targets
by Y. Daisho
2020 2030 2040 2050
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
(20.3km/L) 3%4%5%
Annual improvement
116 77.4 58.0 46.4 CO2 : g/km
Ave
rag
e F
ue
l E
co
no
my,
km
/L
Rela
tive F
uel C
onsum
ption, %
Annual improvement: 5%
15Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
100005
10005
1005
105
1
Pow
er
den
sity
W/k
g
0.1 5 1 5 10 5 100 5 1000
Energy Density Wh/kg
Electric Double Layer
Capacitor
Li-ion
Battery
Lead
Acid
Battery
Capacitor
Ni-MH
Battery Fuel Cell
2010~2030
High reliability and
durability and low cost
are essential.
Li, Co, Mn, Ni,
Graphite, etc.
⇒
Metal Air Battery?All-solid-
state Battery?
After 2030⇒
(Prof. T. Osaka,
Waseda Univ.)
Devices for Storing Electricity
16Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Type TermDrive
range, km
Package
Mass, kgCapacity,
kWhCost, ¥
PHV 2020~30 60 50 10 200,000
EV 2040~50 700 80 56 260,000
Source: Roadmaps on Developing Secondary Batteries for Motor
Vehicles 2013 (Aug, 2013, Reviewed in Jun, 2018)
Mid and Long Term Targetsfor Developing Batteries for PHVs and EVs
< Advanced Battery Cells in Major Countries >
Type TermCell Energy density,
Wh/kg
Present Li-ion battery 2015~19 ~150
Advanced Li-ion battery 2019~24 235~285
All solid-state Li-ion battery 2024~32 250~400
Innovative battery 2030~ 500~
< NEDO’s Roadmap, Japan >
Source: METI 201817Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
❏The effect of stopping all nuclear power stations in
March 2011 on increased CO2 emissions in Japan
・340g/kWh in 2010
・610g/kWh(1.8 times) in 2014 (average)
❏Revised CHADEMO standards for rapid EV recharging,
announced in March 2017
・Increasing power capacity for Evs and reducing
recharging: 50 kW ⇒ 150kW (2017) ⇒ 350kW (2020)
・Issues on how to manage electricity
supply and demand for transportation,
business and household sectors
✓Smart grid, demand response
VPP and V2X systems are necessary.
✓Power management systems are
also necessary to efficiently generate,
store and distribute electricity.
50kw ⇒150kw
30 min
10 min
Reduced
recharging time
Issues on Rapid Recharging Systems
for EVs and PHEVs in Japan
18Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
9.6
29.3
25.0
28.6
10.7
14.9
43.2
30.3
22-24
27
26
20-22
2010 2013 2016 2030
7.5
1.0
3?
Fossil
fuels?
?
2050
Geothermal
1.0-1.1
Wind 1.7
Biomass
3.7-4.6
Solar
7.0
Hydraulic
8.8-9.2
14.5
9.3
42.2
32.3
1.7
(unit: %)
Nuclear
Coal
LNG
Oil
Renewables
Fossi
l
Fuels
☆Reducing the consumption of fossil fuels in electric power plants is
effective to decrease CO2 emission from all sectors.
Electricity Sources Proposed for the Paris Agreement
by METI, Japan, 2015, 2018
19Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Options for Decarbonizing Electricity and Hydrogen
❑ Renewables
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydraulic
Biomass
Electric
Vehicle
Plug-in
Hybrid
Fuel Cell
Vehicle
❑ Nuclear Power
Electricity
Hydrogen
☆ Hydrogen is produced mainly from fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas.
☆ Carbon-free hydrogen must be realized by 2040 taking into account
production, transportation, storage and supply processes. (Japan)
☆ Overall LCA and cost evaluation should be made on these fuels and energy.
(Water
Pyrolysis)
・Recharging station
・Electricity management
・Hydrogen handling, storage and supply
Hybrid &
IC Engine
Vehicles
(Water Electrolysis) (Fuel Cell)
20Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Gasoline vehicle
Hybrid
↑ Mirai (natural gas⇒H2)
Mirai (renewable H2)
t-CO2e
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0Production 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 Scrappage
Distance km
Mirai LCA Report
Toyota, June, 2015
NEDC mode
A Comparison of CO2 Emissions based on LCA
21Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Vehicle type 2017(data) 2020 2030
Conventional vehicles 63.97% 50~80% 30~50%
Next generation vehicles 36.02% 20~50% 50~70%
HEV 31.2% 20~30% 30~40%
EV / PHEV 0.41 / 0.82% 15~20% 20~30%
FCV 0.02% ~1% ~3%
Clean diesel 3.52% ~5% 5 ~10%
(A Strategic Research Committee for Next Generation
Vehicles, METI, 2010, The following Committee, METI, 2018)
Market Share Targets for Passenger Cars
in 2020-2030 proposed by METI, Japan
❑4.386 million passenger cars were sold in Japan, in 2017.
❑Percent market share of passenger cars is lower than 5%
in other major countries in 2017 as follows. ・USA: 4.0%
・Germany: 3.0% ・France: 4.8% ・China: 3.0% ・India: 0.03%
22Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Comparison of Middle Class Next Generation
Passenger Cars Sold in Japan
Vehicle type Battery capacity
kWh
Relative
vehicle mass
Relative
fuel economy
Gasoline(Fuel: 400-500)
(1.0) (1.0)
Diesel 1.06 1.15~1.20
HV 1~2 1.05~1.15 1.20~1.90
PHV 10~20 1.15~1.20 1.8
BEV 20~60 1.20~1.30 3~4**
FCV 1~2 (H2: 150-170) 1.30~1.40 1.8~2.5**
* : Relative to gasoline vehicle
**: Converted based on energy consumption (Wh/km)
23Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Comparison of Electrified Vehicles
ICE Vehicle
(Baseline)
20
Hybrids Plug-in
hybrids
Fuel cell
vehicles
Electric
vehicles
Can electricity and
hydrogen be fully
renewable? 100
0
50
CO
2 re
duction
%
Renewables: 40%
24Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Rela
tive I
mport
ance
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Utilizing Alternatives to Oil
Mitigating Global Warming
Controlling Air Pollution
Motorized Countries Motorizing Countries
Relative Importance of Policy Making and R&D
for Next Generation Vehicles and Fuels/Energy
25Y. Daisho, Waseda University
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL
Issues for Developing and Disseminating
Next Generation Vehicles
❑Consistent efforts for sustainable mobility enabling environmental
protection, energy security, affordability and convenience❑Continued governmental support and collaboration between industry,
academia and government for developing advanced mobility technologies❑Strengthening global competitiveness for motor vehicle-related
technologies❑Developing and disseminating technologies related to low-carbon
renewable fuels and energy such as electricity, hydrogen etc. ❑Creating new environmentally friendly car lifestyles❑Developing technologies related to ITS,IT, ICT and AI for our future
mobility ❑Technological and policy contributions to motorizing countries and areas
Market
Technology Policy
Industry
Academia Government
26Y. Daisho, Waseda University