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Amandine PIZZAGALLI
Technology & Market Analyst - Equipment & Materials
Yole Développement
More thanMoore
Market trends
2©2017 | www.yole.fr | About Yole Développement
OUTLINE
• Introduction to More than Moore
• Major trends in the industry
• Conclusions
4
WHAT HAPPENED?
• Growth decline in the main semiconductor drivers (smartphones)
• Cost benefits of CMOS scaling have ceased
Market dynamics
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
CAGR
2015-2021
TOTAL Phones Realistic (Munits) 1,249 1,511 1,781 2,025 2,242 2,315 2,316 2,331 2,359 2,400 2,456 2,520 1.4%
Entry-level phones (Munits) Realistic scenario) 287 302 321 324 314 278 266 268 260 240 246 227 -3.3%
Feature phones (Munits) (Realistic scenario) 687 756 784 770 740 671 614 536 460 420 356 315 -11.9%
Smartphone (Munits) (Realistic) 275 453 677 932 1,188 1,366 1,436 1,527 1,640 1,740 1,854 1,978 6.4%
YoY Smartphone growth (Realistic scenario) 65% 49% 38% 28% 15% 5% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7%
YoY Total cellphones Realistic growth 21.0% 17.9% 13.7% 10.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Yo
Y Sm
artphone gro
wth (%
) / Yo
Y C
ellphones gro
wth (%
)
Wo
rldw
ide
cellp
hone
s vo
lum
e (M
units
)
Worldwide cellphones volume sales - Munits - 2010/2021 - Realistic scenario
YoleDeveloppement@April 2016
5
WHERE IS IT GOING? – APPLICATION DIVERSIFICATION
Mainframes
PCs
IoT
AR&VRAI
IoT infrastructure – the
connectivity and data
processing backbone
Diversification
• The future brings no single leading driver, but a fragmented growing market!
Smartphones
Vehicle
electrifica
tion
Autono
mous
driving
5G
connec
tivity
Servers
/Datace
nters
6
WHERE IS IT GOING?
From Moore (Scaling) to More than Moore and beyond (Functional)
Functional roadmap emerges beside scaling roadmap
1980 2010 2020
Industry competition
Moore
Industry competition
More than MooreIndustry Competition
Beyond Moore
LaptopPersonal
Computers
Smartphones
Autonomous
vehicles
Robotic
Servants
Quantified
self
Drones
Acceleration
SensingInteraction age
ProcessingInformation age
ActuatingEnhancement age
Tablets
Smart
homes
2040
Telekinesis
7©2015 | www.yole.fr | About Yole Développement
EVOLUTION OF SELECTED MORE THAN MOORE APPLICATIONS
>$85B in 2020…
$0M
$10 000M
$20 000M
$30 000M
$40 000M
$50 000M
$60 000M
$70 000M
$80 000M
$90 000M
$100 000M
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Selected More than Moore applications
MEMS Market Image sensors LED market
Power devices market Microfluidic market Printed electronic Market
What are the applications that are driving the 6” and 8’’ manufacturing infrastructure ?
10
GLOBAL MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH
Mobile data traffic isgrowingexplosively
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Global mobile data traffic by device/function
Smartphone data usage Other devices data usage (PCs, Tablets…) Voice only data usage
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Exab
ytes
per
Month
Global mobile data traffic
5G related 4G/4.5G 3G/3.5G 2G/2.5G
11
ECOSYSTEM OF THE RF COMPONENTS & MODULES INDUSTRY
2016–2022 Forecast
The growth is not evenly distributed
Filters representthe biggestbusiness in the RF Front End industry
$16,311MCAGR +21%
$4,187MCAGR +1%
$272MCAGR +40%
$2,014MCAGR +12%
$22,777MCAGR +14%
$5,208M
$3,848M
$36M
$1,026M
$10,118M
2016 2022
Total RF components & FEM/PAMiD module manufacturers
Filters
Antenna tuners
Switches
PAs & LNAs
12
WAFER PROJECTIONS
RF filters and power amplifiers, 2015 – 2022 (in 6’’ eq. wafers)
Filters represent the largest volume in terms of wafer shipment
13
WAFER PROJECTIONS
RF filters, technology breakdown by volume (%)
SAW filters will still represent the largest volume in terms of wafers, due to their bigger die size
From Technologies to Market
Evolution of the
MEMS INDUSTRY
15
ACTUATORSSENSORS
THE DIFFERENT MEMS, SENSORS & ACTUATORS & WHERE THEY CAN COMBINE
Pressure Sound
(microphone)
Environment Optical sensors
Dru
g d
elivery
Microfluidics
Ink j
et
head
s
Au
to-F
ocu
s
Mic
rom
irro
rs
RF
µspeakers
Optical MEMS Micro structures
Part
icle
s
Hu
mid
ity
Movement
Gas
Magn
eto
mete
rs
IMUs (6 to 9 DOF)
Accele
rom
ete
rs
Gyro
sco
pes
Tem
pera
ture
Op
tical b
en
ch
es
Mic
ro t
ips
Pro
bes
Watc
hes
co
mp
on
en
ts
PIR
& t
herm
op
iles
Mic
ro b
olo
mete
rs
Sw
itch
Filte
r
Bosch BME680
FLIR Lepton One
Infineon microphoneST pressure sensorInvenSense
MPU9250
Debiotech micro
pump
Texas Instruments DLP
Avago-Broadcom
FBAR Filter
Spiromax Patek
Philippe
Audio
Pixels
MEMS
based
speaker
Reso
nato
r
Bio
ch
ips
poLight AF
SiTime oscillator
Am
bie
nt
ligh
t se
nso
r
Fin
gerp
rin
t
Vis
ion
Optical combos“open” package
environmental combos
“closed” package
6 to 11 DOF
combos
Possible integration with environment
combos
Possible
integration with
opto combos
16
6’’ VS. 8’’ WAFER SIZE
• In 2016, the number of 8’’ MEMS wafers outpassed the number of 6’’ MEMS wafers for the first time.
17
CASE OF LITHOGRAPHY EQUIPMENT: MASK ALIGNERS VS STEPPERS
Mask aligners represent the majority of projection systems used for MEMS devices
Mask aligners are mainly used for non-CMOS processes in MEMS devices
Steppers are used for the CMOS part of MEMS devices or for the most challenging lithography step
By
revenueBy
revenue
2016 2022
18
MEMS & SENSORS’ LITHOGRAPHY NEEDS
We foresee an increasing use for steppers thanks to their very accurate layer-to-layer alignment
• MEMS manufacturing includes DRIE steps with thick resist so high DOF is needed for
projection systems
• In recent years, we have therefore seen an increasing use for steppers instead of mask
aligners:
• Steppers have have very accurate layer-to-layer alignment, 0.1µm, ten times better than contact
• This is critical for MEMS where misalignment of mechanical features will lower performance, for
example in gyros and micro mirrors
• Re-use of semiconductor process to make non IC devices is creating totally new
opportunities
• We expect an increase investment in 200mm equipment for MEMS devices mainly driven by
automotive as well as Sensors supported by the increase demand for mobile and wearables
applications in the next few years
19
PROFILES OF COMPANIES ADDRESSING THE MEMS MARKET
Two main profiles serve the MEMS projection system market:
Mainstream Front End players with internal re-use or re-sale equipment
Niche market players with dedicated new MEMS equipment
Mainstream
Front End
2014 Revenue ($M)
>$100M
Niche
markets
> $150M
> $1B
> $10B
Mainly internal re-use or re-sale base
New equipment base
Due to its relaxed specs, the MEMS photolithography market
benefits from a high percentage of re-used/retrofitted
equipment coming from the mainstream front end
semiconductor industry. We believe this could represent
between 30-50% of the global equipment business.
Impact of transportation
electrification and smart vehicles
21
THE TWO BIG TRENDS FOR VEHICLES
Impact of electrification
and autonomous driving are becoming
important and guiding
innovation
• ~2Mu in 2022
• ~5Mu in 2027 (Level 3*)
Automation
• ~14Mu in 2022
• ~25 - 30Mu in 2027
Electrification**
Thermal vehicles
94Mu
vehicles
105Mu
vehicles
* Level 3 = hands-off / ** Includes hybrids2017 2027
Automated vehicles sold
Non-thermal vehicles sold
22
AUTOMOTIVE TRENDS FOR 2022
These two trends imply a
market of more than $34B combined
Automation
(2 Mu of Level 3 cars in 2022)
Electrification
(3Mu of full EV in 2022 and
15Mu of other EV and HEV)
Sensors for autonomous driving
$18BPower electronics systems
for EV and HEV:
$16B
Recharge
infrastructure
and legislation
on safety
23
TOTAL WAFER PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR POWER DEVICES
Wafer volume shipments in units
Split by wafer size
25©2015 | www.yole.fr | About Yole Développement
WHICH APPLICATIONS ARE IMPACTING THE SEMICONDUCTOR BUSINESS?
• The mobile market is maturing, with growth rates are decreasing below 10%• Smartphone units went from 2011/2010YoY growth 49% to 2016/2015YoY growth 6%• FutureYoY growth until 2020 expected 6-7% (partial recovery, but not enough to lead industry forward)
Strong move to go to More than Moore trends
• The future likely brings a fragmented semiconductor market without a clear leading application• Future semiconductor drivers are expected to be:
• Internet of Things (including Industrial Internet of Things)• Autonomous driving• Electrification of vehicles• 5G connectivity• Augmented Reality & Virtual Reality• Artificial Intelligence/Robotics
• chain evolution to maximize the added value and provide complete services to customers: 8’’ manufacturingis key
• Their is a growing importance of the devices outside the digital IC world, where analog, mixed signal devices,sensors, power management, embedded memories… are becoming increasingly important and reaching bigsales level, all of them being on 8’’ manufacturing
• We see more and more speciality foundries that are grabing a significant part of these more than Mooreapplications, as the process to be mastered are totally different from the digital IC world.
26©2017 | www.yole.fr | About Yole Développement
CONTACT INFORMATION
o CONSULTING AND SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business DevelopmentEmail: [email protected] – +1 31 06 008 267
• Japan & Rest of Asia: Takashi Onozawa, General Manager, Asia Business DevelopmentEmail: [email protected] - +81 3 4405 9204
• Greater China: Mavis Wang, Director of Greater China Business DevelopmentEmail: [email protected] - +886 979 336 809
• RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President, Yole DéveloppementEmail [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 80
o REPORT BUSINESS
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business DevelopmentEmail: [email protected] – +1 31 06 008 267
• Europe: Lizzie Levenez, EMEA Business Development ManagerEmail: [email protected] - +49 15 123 544 182
• Rest of Asia: Takashi Onozawa, General Manager, Asia Business DevelopmentEmail: [email protected] - +81 3 4405 9204
• Japan & Asia: Miho Othake, Account ManagerEmail: [email protected] - +81 3 4405 9204
• Greater China: Mavis Wang, Director of Greater China Business DevelopmentEmail: [email protected] - +886 979 336 809
o FINANCIAL SERVICES (in partnership with Woodside Capital Partners)
• Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & PresidentEmail: [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 80
o GENERAL
• Public Relations: [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 89
• Email: [email protected] - +33 4 72 83 01 80
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