MONTHLY REPORT ON 08September,2020

( October )

COTTON

History

Duringthepastmonth,cottononMCXgained3%andtradedatwomonthshighbuoyedbybuyingbyspinningmillsandoverseasfirms.The

domesticdemandofcottonhadseenanincreaseasmostofthespinningmillsoperatedat80%capacity.SincetheCottonCorporationofIndia(CCI)

startedauctioningcottonaboutamonthagoithasbeenabletosellalmost50lakhbalesof170kgeachandthepriceshaverisenfromRs36,500toRs

38,000percandyof356kg.Thishasledtoanincreaseindomesticprices.

Intheinternationalmarket,ICEcottonfuturesroseto5monthshighto66.45centsafterforecastsforhotanddryweatherinmajorcottongrowing

regionsintheUnitedStatesstokedfearsofdeterioratingcropconditions.ThelatestreportfromtheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture's(USDA)weekly

cropprogressreportshowed44%ofthecropwasingood/excellentcondition,downfromlastweek's46%andlastyear's48%.Infact,managed

moneywasnetbuyersforcottonontheweekending25thAugust.SpeculativetraderOI increased4,962contracts leavingthegroup48,723

contractsnetlong.ThatisthelargestcottonnetlongsincetheweekendingOctober2,2018.

DAILY CHART OF ICE COTTON FUTURES

Source:Reuters

DAILY CHART OF MCX COTTON FUTURES

Source:Reuters

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Internationalmarketfundamentals

• AccordingtoUSDA,FY2021cottonexportsareforecastat$5.0billion,down$400millionfrom2020duetolowervolumesfromasmallercrop

andincreasedforeigncompetition.UnitvaluesarealsodownduetosharplyreduceddemandfromtheeconomicslowdowncausedbyCOVID-19

andrecordstocksoutsideofChina.

• COVID-19remainsacentralsourceofuncertaintyfortheglobaleconomyandtheglobalcottonmarket.TheresurgenceoftheoutbreakintheU.S.,

alongwiththeriseindailycaseratesinseveralothercountries,emphasizeshowtheworldhasyettobringthepandemicunderfullcontrol.

Domesticmarketfundamentals

Ÿ AccordingtoUSDA,India’scottonproductionisbeingestimatedat28.9million480-lbbalesinmarketingyear(MY)2020/21onanareaof12.9

millionhectares.Thepaceofsowingis3percenthigherthanlastyear,andwascompletedwellaheadoftime,barringafewsouthernstates.While

governmentagencieshavebeenabletooffloadstocksatafastpace,asignificantportionofunsoldstocksremainsinthemarket.

Ÿ AccordingtotheMinistryofAgricultureSept4,2020report,theoverallcottonplantingforKharif2020seasonreached128.95lakhhectares,

3.24%higherthanlastyear.

Ÿ AccordingtoIndianMeteorologicalDepartment(IMD),thesouthwestmonsoonremainsactive,andfairlywidespreadrainsarelikelyovercentral

andnorthwestIndia.

Ÿ SignificantrainfallhasalreadyoccurredduringAugustinthemajorcottongrowingstatesofGujarat,Maharashtra,Telangana,AndhraPradesh,

andKarnataka.AccordingtothelatestadvisoryissuedbytheAgriculturalMeteorologyDivisionoftheIMD,farmershavebeenissuedadvisories

toarrangeforproperdrainageinstandingcrops,andrecovercottonplantfromexcessmoisturestress.

Ÿ Currently,themarketparticipantsarecloselywatchingthedevelopmentstageofthefibrecropastheprevailingcontinuousrainsandcloudy

weatheriscongenialfortheincidenceofwiltincotton.Theprevailingweatherishighlyfavorableforthedevelopmentandmultiplicationofwhite

flypopulationincotton.Inaddition,heavyrainfallfollowedbybrightsunnydayscanresultinparawiltincidenceincotton.

Ÿ DuringJulyandAugust,theCottonCorporationofIndia(CCI)conductedsuccessfule-auctions,andsoldaround4.3million480lb.bales(5.5

million170kgbales/935,000MT).Tradesourcesindicatethatalmost80percentofthesaleshavebeentothemills,andanadditional1.56–1.95

million480-lb.bales(2-2.5million170-kgbales/425,000MT)isexpectedtobesoldbytheendofSeptember.

Ÿ Onthedemandside,MY2020/21cottonconsumptionisestimatedat23million480-lbbales(29.45million170-kilogrambales/5MMT).

Ÿ Theoutlookforthedomesticretailsectorremainsweakasmillscontinuetofaceoperationalissueswithrespecttomigrantlaborandrising

Covid-19casesatfactorypremises,leadingtohighcompliancecostsandoperationaldisruptions.

Ÿ Ontheexportfront,USDAestimatesMY2020/21exportsat4million480-lbbales(4.48million170-kilogrambales/760,000MT).whichis

almost900,000480-lbbaleslowerthantheofficialUSDAestimate.Factorssuchasexportablesupplies,andincreasedcompetitionwillcontinue

tokeeppricessuppressed.

Domesticmarketinventories

ArrivalsAsofAugust25,2020,MY2019/20cottonarrivalsasreportedbytheCottonCorporationofIndiahavereach26.5million480-lb.bales(34

million170-kilgrambales/5.8MMT).BasedontheproductionestimateoftheCottonAdvisoryBoard(CAB),94percentofthecrophasarrivedinthe

market.Localindustryestimatescottonarrivalstobehigherby5-6percent.(Source:USDA)

State Prices Prices Prices % Change % Change August, 2020 July, 2020 August, 2019 (Over Previous Month) (Over Previous Year)

Gujarat 4267 4124 5876 3.46 -27.38

Karnataka 4811 4608 5457 4.40 -11.85

Maharashtra 5247 5249 5850 -0.04 -10.31

Pondicherry 4306 4002 4400 7.61 -2.14

Tamil Nadu 4727 4586 5612 3.09 -15.77

Average 4672 4514 5439

Source:AGMARK

PricesinRs/QuintalSpotmarketupdate–Arrivals

StatewiseWholesalePricesMonthlyAnalysisforCottonAugust,2020

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Foresight

Indaystocome,Cottonfutures(October)isexpectedtowitnesscorrectiontowards17300-17100,facingresistancenear17900.Presently,there

isasellingpressureoverthecounterasCottonCorporationofIndiahasresumeditsauctionswithnewsetofrules.Accordingtothenewnotification,

thereisaquantitativeceilingonsinglebuyer,i.etherewillbeamaximumquantitativeceilingof2lakhbalesperdayandtotalsaleof10lakhbalesina

cottonseasontoanysinglebuyerforsaleofcottonbales.Thisistokeepacheckonhoardingpractices.Secondly,adiscountofRs.300/-percandyin

saleratewillbegiventoMSMEspinningmills.

Intheinternationalmarket,ICEcottonfutures(Dec)isfacingresistancenear66.45.However,thetrendisstillbullish.But,marketparticipants

needtobecautiousatthislevelastherearevariousnewsflowintheinternationalmarket,especiallyincontextofgrowingU.S-Chinatension.

ThenervousnessoftradebetweentheU.S.andChina,theworld’stwolargesteconomiesandtheworld’slargestexporterandimporterofcotton,is

continuingtoescalate.Chinawasresponsiblefornearly70%ofU.S.exportsalesofcottonsinceApril.Whetherornotthosesalesturnintoshipments,

whetherornotthePhaseOneagreementisfulfilled,andwhatthepotentialconsequencesofanunfulfilleddealcouldbeareothervariablesthatcanbe

expectedtoshapethesupplyanddemandoutlookandpricedirection.

Inlatestnews,USapparelgroupsareexpectingaTrumpadministrationdecisionasearlyasthisweekblockingimportsofChinese-madetextileand

apparelproductsonthegroundsthattheyaretheproductsofforcedlabourintheXinjiangregionofChina.Suchanorder,whichwouldcomefromUS

CustomsandBorderProtection(CBP),hasthepotentialtoaffecttensofbillionsofdollarsofUStextileandclothingimportsthatcontaincotton,yarn

orfabricproducedintheXinjiangUygurAutonomousRegion(XUAR).

Thecropyearjustbegan,however,andthereisplentyoftimeforrapidlyevolvingCOVIDandmacroeconomicconditionstoaltertheoutlook.Evenin

anoptimisticscenario,wherethevirusisputundercontrolandeconomiesrebound,demandgrowthatthespinninglevelmaylagdownstream

demandgrowthduetoaccumulatedinventory.

Closingason4thSeptember,2020 Source:MCX

Forward curve of Cotton futures (MCX)

Closingason4thSeptember,2020 Source:Barchart

Forward curve of Cotton futures (ICE)

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17390.00

17200.00

17300.00

17500.00

17100.00

17150.00

17200.00

17250.00

17300.00

17350.00

17400.00

17450.00

17500.00

17550.00

Oct Nov Dec Jan

64.12

64.99

65.97

66.77

67.47

66.13

65.68

62.00

63.00

64.00

65.00

66.00

67.00

68.00

Oct Dec Mar May July Oct Dec

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