Monex Global Retail Investor Survey, Vol.5 (US Version)archives.monexgroup.jp/en/news_release/pdf/EN_global... · 2012. 6. 26. · Monex Inc. (Tokyo, Oki Matsumoto, Chairman and CEO),

For Immediate Release

Despite Recent Progress, U.S. Investors Still Pessimistic About Euro,

With Negative Outlook on Global Equities

Monex Global Retail Investor Survey, Vol. 5 Reveals Client Insight

Tokyo, JAPAN, Plantation, FLORIDA and Hong Kong, CHINA, June 26, 2012 – TradeStation

Securities (“TradeStation”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Monex Group, Inc. (TSE: 8698),

which also includes Monex, Inc. (“Monex”) and Monex Boom Securities, today announced the

results of the “Monex Global Retail Investor Survey, Vol. 5,” revealing that an overwhelming

majority of TradeStation clients (74%) are worried that the European debt crisis could result in a

serious financial crisis.

Twenty-nine percent of TradeStation clients say that the European debt crisis is a factor in

making their investment decisions – as opposed to 24% who say they will base their decisions on

the strength of the U.S. economy. More than half project that global equities will be down over

the next three months, with an additional 26% predicting that they will remain flat. Although

pessimism about the stock market is predominant among investors, a majority of TradeStation

customers (69%) say that the U.S. stock market will outperform stocks in Europe/U.K., Asia

(excluding Japan) and Japan.

Monex has been conducting its monthly retail investor survey with its Japanese clients since

October 2009. The “Monex Global Retail Investor Survey,” covering retail clients in Japan,

Hong Kong and the U.S., was launched in June 2011 and is conducted on a quarterly basis.

A majority of TradeStation clients in the U.S. (54%) say that if President Obama is reelected,

they will be more bearish. This bearish sentiment has risen from 43% in March 2012. Should

Mitt Romney be elected president, 52% of respondents say they will have a more bullish

investment outlook, up from 39% of those surveyed in March 2012.

“Our clients expect major events with unknown outcomes – like the European debt crisis and the

U.S. presidential election – to influence the financial markets and their outlook for investment

and trading,” said Salomon Sredni, CEO of TradeStation Group, Inc. and COO of Monex Group,

Inc. “Our top priority is providing our clients with the best possible analysis and trading tools to

help them identify opportunities in these times of uncertainty.”

The report uses the Diffusion Index (DI) – the percentage of positive responses minus the

percentage of negative responses – to assess investor sentiment. Other findings from the survey

are summarized below. Please refer to the full report for complete results.

Japanese investor expectations of Japanese stocks improved markedly, but expectations for U.S.

and Chinese stocks remained about the same. Expectations for Japanese stocks improved by 14

points from a DI of 10 points to 24 points, expectations for U.S. stocks rose just 2 points from 33

points to 35 points, and Chinese stock expectations were barely changed, up 1 point to -18

points.

Expectations for global equity markets over the next three months declined in all three regions,

with DIs for U.S. and Japanese investors plunging by more than 25 points. Hong Kong investors

remained the most positive, with the DI falling only 7 points.

Expectations for the Japanese yen to appreciate against the U.S. dollar eased a bit. Forty percent

of investors surveyed expect the yen to decline against the dollar over the next three months,

while 30% foresee appreciation and 30% expect no change.

Finally, in all three regions the topic of most interest was the European debt crisis, but the

percentage of respondents expressing greatest interest in the Eurozone issue was considerably

lower in the U.S. compared to Japan and Hong Kong. Majorities of investors in the U.S. (74%)

and Hong Kong (54%) expect the problem to turn into a serious crisis, while in Japan, fully one-

third (33%) of respondents said they are “not sure” how the crisis will resolve.

The Monex Global Retail Investor Survey measures customer sentiment based upon answers to

specific questions received from a random sampling of customers of Monex, Inc., TradeStation

Securities, Inc., IBFX, Inc., and Boom Securities (H.K.) Ltd. Details of the methodology used to

conduct the survey are available upon request. Accuracy and completeness of the data derived

from the survey are not guaranteed.

The information contained herein should not be construed as investment research or an offer or

solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives, futures or off-exchange foreign

currency products or services. Investor sentiment derived from the survey responses is no

guarantee of future performance or success.

Active trading regardless of asset class (equities, futures, foreign exchange) carries a high level

of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Relevant risk disclosures are available at

www.tradestation.com

About Monex Group Inc.

Monex Group Inc. (Tokyo Stock Exchange 1st section: 8698), including its main subsidiary

Monex Inc. (Tokyo, Oki Matsumoto, Chairman and CEO), an online securities brokerage,

provides advanced and unique financial services to individual investors. Monex Group has been

a pioneer among Japanese online securities brokers since the complete liberalization of

commissions and fees in stock brokerages in 1999. Monex relentlessly strives to offer its

customers in Japan innovative products and services and has established its reputation as a

unique independent financial institution group. Its services cover M&A advisory, debt & equity

underwriting, asset management focusing on alternative investments, investment education, and

other investment banking functions along with an online distribution network to more than 1.2

million individual investors in Japan.

Monex Group aims to globalize its customer base and businesses in addition to enhancing its

global product line and services. Specifically, in recent years, Monex has embarked on an

ambitious plan to strengthen its products and services globally by focusing its expansion efforts

to date on the growing Chinese market, by opening representative offices in Beijing and

acquiring BOOM Securities (H.K.) Limited and its group companies in Hong Kong. As a core

element in the further expansion and global diversification of its businesses, it has been seeking

opportunities to expand into the U.S. market, which it saw as the missing pillar in achieving a

truly global platform. The acquisition of TradeStation provides Monex with an immediate

expansion and strong commercial presence in the U.S. online brokerage market.

About TradeStation Group, Inc.

TradeStation Group, Inc., through its principal operating subsidiaries, TradeStation Securities,

Inc. and IBFX, Inc., offers analytical and trading platforms to the active trader and certain

institutional trader markets. The TradeStation platform offers electronic order execution and

enables clients to design, test, optimize, monitor and automate their own custom equities,

options, futures and forex trading strategies. TradeStation Group is a wholly owned subsidiary

of Monex Group, one of the largest online financial services providers in Japan.

TradeStation Securities, Inc. (Member NYSE, FINRA, SIPC, NSCC, DTC, OCC & NFA) is a

licensed securities broker-dealer and a registered futures commission merchant, and also a

member of the Boston Options Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Chicago Stock

Exchange, International Securities Exchange and NASDAQ OMX. Its TradeStation Prime

Services division, based in New York, seeks to provide prime brokerage services, including

securities lending, to small and mid-sized hedge funds and other firms. IBFX, Inc. (Member

NFA) is a Retail Foreign Exchange Dealer (RFED) that provides forex brokerage services

directly and through its TradeStation Forex division. The company’s technology subsidiary,

TradeStation Technologies, Inc., develops and offers strategy trading software tools and

subscription services. TradeStation Europe Limited, an FSA-authorized brokerage firm,

introduces UK and other European accounts to TradeStation Securities, Inc. and IBFX, Inc.

About Monex BOOM Securities (H.K.) Limited

Monex BOOM Securities (H.K.) Limited ("BOOM") offers multi-market and multi-currency

online securities trading services to investors all around the world. With BOOM’s proprietary

web-based trading platform, investors can trade equities in all major exchanges and manage

different major currencies via one single account. Currently, it offers access to securities listed

on over 17 stock markets in 12 countries. In addition, BOOM also develops trading solutions for

other financial institutions.

Being the first company to launch Internet stock trading in Asia/Pacific, BOOM introduced a

new pattern of self-directed cross-border investment by applying new technology to traditional

equities trading and financial services. BOOM aims to provide retail investors with PRIVATE,

EASE, SPEEDINESS and INEXPENSIVE international stock trading services.

BOOM is a fully licensed Broker/Dealer regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission

(SFC) of Hong Kong, founded in 1997 and headquartered in Hong Kong. It is a wholly owned

subsidiary of Monex Group, one of the largest online financial services providers in Japan.

CONTACTS:

Monex, Inc.

Yuko Machida

+81-3-6212-3800

TradeStation Securities, Inc.

Loren Lopez

+1 (954) 652-7011

Monex BOOM Securities (HK) Limited

Grace Chow

+852-22558880

June 2012

Monex Global Retail Investor Survey

Executive Summary

Takashi Hiroki, Chief Strategist, Monex, Inc.

There are thousands of different views and opinions out there in the market. While one

person looks at a price and decides it’s a “buy,” another looks at it and decides to “sell.” That’s how

a price is determined and how the market works. This diversity of views is what offers the chance

to earn profits.

Nevertheless, investor sentiment in our latest quarterly survey looks a bit too diversified.

The number of Japanese investors choosing “Japan” as the best-performing market fell by nearly

10 percentage points from the March survey. The percentage choosing “Asia” grew instead, while

the percentage selecting “Europe” was little changed. Views among U.S. investors were quite the

opposite, with the percentage selecting “Asia” declining 7 percentage points and the percentage

choosing “Japan” more than doubling. Those selecting “Europe” decreased all the way down to 1%,

while those selecting “U.S.” climbed to 70%. Among Hong Kong investors, the percentage

selecting “U.S.” nearly doubled, driving the percentages for all other markets lower – especially

“Asia,” which fell by 16 percentage points. In terms of changes from the previous survey, investor

sentiment could be summarized as: Japanese investors choosing Asia rather than Japan, U.S.

investors selecting Japan over Asia, and Hong Kong investors choosing the U.S. rather than Asia.

Investors’ outlook on currencies was even more diversified. Not surprisingly, sentiment

on the euro decreased in all regions. More interesting were views on the U.S. dollar and Japanese

yen. Among Japanese investors, positive sentiment on the yen was up 20 points while views on the

U.S. dollar fell by the same percentage. U.S. investors didn’t change their views on the two

currencies much, and their views were opposite those of Japanese investors: positive sentiment on

the U.S. dollar was up, while sentiment on the yen eased slightly. Views on the U.S. dollar and yen

could be summarized as: Japanese investors project higher yen/lower U.S. dollar, U.S. investors

project no big change in either currency, and Hong Kong investors project lower yen/higher U.S.

dollar.

Japanese investors lowered their outlook for domestic stocks amid concern that the yen

could appreciate further. Hong Kong investors expect both the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks to

perform well. U.S. investors likewise continue to put their faith in the dollar and the U.S. equities

June 2012 MONEX Global Retail Investor Survey

market. The key to interpreting such divergence lies in differing views on the European debt crisis.

While the crisis was the topic of most interest in all three regions, the percentages of

investors citing it differed substantially, topping 50% in Japan and Hong Kong, but tallying just

30% in the U.S., which was not much different from the percentage citing the U.S. economy.

Concerns about the U.S. economy placed second among Hong Kong investors as well, but were

cited by only 7%, as opposed to the 58% citing the debt crisis.

Among U.S. investors – who expressed the least concern about the debt crisis among the

three regions – the percentage suggesting the debt crisis could be “another Lehman” was 74%,

much higher than in the other two regions. Even though U.S. investors think the trouble in Europe

could turn deadly serious, their interest in Europe isn’t as high as in the other regions surveyed.

Why?

One reason is U.S. investors appear to have already reached their conclusion on Europe:

that it will turn into a serious crisis. That’s why they gave such low marks (1% and 4%) to

European shares and the euro. There’s already a solid view on the issue and as a result they don’t

expect a good performance in the Eurozone (and are probably done selling their European assets

off as well).

On the other hand, Japanese investors – more than half of whom chose the debt situation

as the topic of most interest – were equally divided on whether it would be another Lehman, with

39% saying “Yes,” 27% saying “No” and 33% answering “Not sure.” The latter percentage was

especially high in Japan, compared to only 11% in U.S. and 17% in Hong Kong. Japanese investors

have yet to reach a solid conclusion on the issue. For them, the European debt crisis is still a big

concern because they’re still uncertain (or otherwise “not sure”) about the problem. And that’s why

it draws so much attention.

Along with greater uncertainty about European debt crisis, Japanese investors foresee a

strengthening yen and correspondingly lower domestic share prices. Hong Kong investors ran for

U.S. shares and the U.S. dollar, avoiding risk from the Eurozone. U.S. investors were largely fixed

in their views and thus exhibited little movement. Their interest in the U.S. economy was second

only to the European crisis. Since this question was asked for the first time in the survey and thus

there’s no historical data by which to evaluate the response, we can’t be absolutely sure, but it

seems that U.S. investors are starting to shift their attention from the Eurozone to their own

domestic economy.


Summary

(1) DIs show signs of rebound

(Japan) Chart 1

[Japan] (May) 10 points --> (June) 24 points (+14 MoM)

[U.S.] (May) 33 points --> (Jun) 35 points (+2)

[China] (May) -19 point --> (Jun) -18 points (+1)

China and U.S. little changed while Japan gains 14 points. (*DI: difference between the percentage of

respondents choosing “stocks will rise” and those choosing “stocks will fall,” in points.)

(2) Outlook on global share prices decline

(Japan, U.S., H.K.) Chart 3

Outlook on global share prices declined for the first time in three months, with the outlook by

Japanese and U.S. investors dropping more than 25 points.

(3) Expectation of JPY appreciating against USD eases

(Japan) Chart 9

Expectation of JPY to appreciate against the U.S. dollar eased a little. Views remain divided.

(4) Topic of most interest and outlook on Eurozone

(Japan, U.S., H.K.) Charts 12, 13

In all three regions, the topic of most interest was the European debt crisis, but the percentage of

investors citing the crisis was considerably lower in the U.S. than in the other two regions. A

majority of U.S. investors expect the problem to turn into a serious crisis while in Japan those “not

sure” exceeded 30%.


Results

Stocks

[Chart 1] Outlook for Japan, U.S. and Chinese stock markets

(Surveyed in; Japan)

China and U.S. were little changed, while Japan gains 14 points. (*DI: difference between the percentage of

respondents choosing “stocks will rise” and those choosing “stocks will fall,” in points.)

[Chart 2] Japanese investors’ DI on Japanese stocks vs. Nikkei 225

(Japan)

3

2522

-4

53

41

16

0

2429

40

48

10

2424

52

41

54

-15

-2

28

43

5358

3335

5551

15

21

3

-29

-18

1

-7

-19 -18

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

09/10 09/12 10/02 10/04 10/06 10/08 10/10 10/12 11/02 11/05 11/07 11/09 11/11 12/01 12/03 12/05

Japan U.S. China

25

3

10

36

25

39

45

30

42

20

2

22

-4

53

42

37

53

9

12

16

41

20

0

16

0

24

29

40

48

31

10

24

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

09/1009/1210/0210/0410/0610/0810/1010/1211/0211/0411/0611/0811/1011/1212/0212/04

DI in Japan(lhs)Nikkei 225 Average(rhs)


[Chart 3] Outlook of global stock markets for the next three months

(Japan, U.S. and H.K.)

Japan -5（-27）

U.S. -29（-26）

H.K. 7（-9）

*Figures in () show changes from the

previous survey.

Outlook on global share prices declined for the first time in three months, with the outlook of

Japanese and U.S. investors dropping more than 25 points.

[Chart 4] Geographical area where stock market will best perform over the next three

months


8

-27 -24

22

-5

-27

-20-8

-3

-29

-4

-38

-14

167

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

11/06 11/09 11/12 12/03 12/06

Japan(MONEX)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

H.K.(BOOM)

50%

70%

39%

14%

1%

5%

32%

18%

32%

4%

11%

24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

H.K.(BOOM)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

Japan(MONEX)

U.S.

Europe/U.K.

Asia (excluding Japan)

Japan


Previous survey (March 2012)

Among H.K. investors, the percentage citing “U.S.” nearly doubled while “Asia” lost share. No big

change was seen in Japan and the U.S.

[Chart 5] The Nikkei 225 level at which you would like to buy Japanese stocks


Unlike the previous survey where a major shift was seen, results in June were little changed.

27%

66%

38%

19%

4%

6%

48%

25%

23%

6%

5%

33%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

H.K.(BOOM)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

Japan(MONEX)

U.S.

Europe/U.K.

Asia (excluding Japan)

Japan

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

April

May

June


[Chart 6] Sector that will perform the best over the next three months

(Japan)


(U.S.)

Medical

Communication

Commerce

Retailing

High-technology

Electorical/gas

industry

Autos

Engineering

Banking

Real Estate

Maritime trade

Steel

Oil related

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Feb 2012 Mar 2012 April 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012

Autos

Basic Materials

Conglomerates

Consumer

Goods

Energy

Financial

Services

Healthcare

Industrial Goods

Real Estate

Services

Technology

Telecommunicat

ions

Transportation

Utilities

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2011年9月 2011年12月 2012年3月 2012年6月



(H.K.)

Autos

Basic Materials

Conglomerates

Consumer

GoodsEnergy

Financial

Services

Healthcare

Industrial Goods

Real Estate

Services

TechnologyTelecommunicat

ions

Transportation

Utilities1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2011年9月 2011年12月 2012年3月 2012年6月


FX and Commodities

[Chart 9] Outlook for USD/JPY for the next three months

(Japan)

Expectations of JPY appreciating against the dollar eased a little. Views remain divided.

[Chart 10] The currency that will strengthen the most for the next three months


Previous survey (March 2012)

37%

38%

33%

27%

29%

18%

30%

35%

64%

70%

53%

38%

40%

35%

25%

27%

31%

36%

30%

41%

42%

24%

20%

26%

28%

30%

28%

37%

40%

42%

35%

52%

30%

24%

12%

10%

22%

35%

30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

JPY to...depreciate stay unchanged appreciate

43%

50%

17%

11%

3%

12%

6%

4%

4%

12%

6%

28%

7%

19%

24%

19%

15%

14%

1%

3%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

H.K.(BOOM)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

Japan(MONEX) USD

EUR

GBP

JPY

AUD

CNY

Other


[Chart 11] Outlook of commodity markets for the next three months


28%

47%

37%

15%

9%

16%

13%

2%

3%

17%

6%

8%

9%

23%

24%

16%

11%

10%

2%

3%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

H.K.(BOOM)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

Japan(MONEX) USD

EUR

GBP

JPY

AUD

CNY

Other

-3

-31

-23

8

-5

26

30

54

-5

13

37

3

18

29

25

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

11/06 11/09 11/12 12/03 12/06

Energy

Japan(MONEX)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

H.K.(BOOM)

23

-2-19

-24

15

2731 34

31 25

41

28

3145

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

11/06 11/09 11/12 12/03 12/06

Metals

Japan(MONEX)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

H.K.(BOOM)


[Chart 12] Topic of most interest


[Chart 13] Lehman again?


58%

30%

54%

7%

24%

11%

6%

14%

2%

3%

2%

21%

7%

5%

4%

4%

2%

1%

6%

7%

2%

3%

7%

8%

3%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1

2

3

European debt crisis

U.S. economy

U.S. policies

Japan's economic recovery

China's economic slowdown

Economies in other emerging countries

Energy prices

Other commodity prices

Corporate earnings

Other

H.K.(BOOM)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

Japan(MONEX)

54%

74%

39%

29%

14%

27%

17%

12%

33%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

H.K.(BOOM)

U.S.(TradeSta.)

Japan(MONEX)

Yes No Not sure


Outline of Survey and Characteristics of Respondents

(Japan)

Method： Internet research

Respondents: Customers of Monex Inc. Customers of Monex, Inc.

# of Responses: 1,020

Period: 8 - 11 June, 2012

【Gender】

Male Female

84.3% 15.7%

【Age】

Minor 20’s 30’s 40’s 50’s 60’s 70’s or over

0.3% 4.5% 21.6% 34.4% 20.6% 12.7% 5.9%

【Financial assets】

Under JPY

5 million

JPY 5 ～

10 million

JPY 10～

20 million

JPY20～

50 million

JPY50～

100 million

over JPY

100 million

32.5% 23.5% 17.9% 18.5% 5.7% 1.8%

【Frequency of trading】

day trading few times a

week

few times a

month once every few months fewer than that

5.7% 12.3% 30.8% 29.6% 21.7%

【Experience of stock investment】

less than a

year 2～5years 5～10years over 10years

7.5% 23.0% 28.7% 40.7%

(USA)

Method: Internet research

Respondents: Customers of TradeStation Securities, Inc.

# of Responses: 158


(Hong Kong)

Method: Internet research

Respondents: Customers of Monex BOOM Securities (H.K.) Limited

# of Responses: 109


The Monex Global Retail Investor Survey measures customer sentiment based on answers to specific


questions received from a random sampling of customers of Monex, Inc., TradeStation Securities, Inc.,

TradeStation Forex, Inc., and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Ltd. Details of the methodology used to

conduct the survey are available upon request. Accuracy and completeness of the data derived from the

survey is not guaranteed.

The information contained herein should not be construed as investment research or an offer or

solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives, futures or off-exchange foreign currency

products or services. Investor sentiment derived from the survey responses is no guarantee of future

performance or success.

Active trading regardless of asset class (equities, options, futures, foreign exchange) carries a high level

of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Relevant risk disclosures are available at

www.tradestation.com.

http://www.tradestation.com/

Documents

Monex Global Retail Investor Survey, Vol.5 (US Version)archives.monexgroup.jp/en/news_release/pdf/EN_global... · 2012. 6. 26. · Monex Inc. (Tokyo, Oki Matsumoto, Chairman and CEO),