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MODULE 6 THEORIES OF CHANGE

Session Outline

This session will introduce participants to the theory of change approach to program design, which they will later apply to the case study to design a conflict program. Each program approach is based on one or more theories of change that explain how the program thinks it will achieve expected results. The theory of change is formulated as an “if/then” statement. Applied to the conflict field, theories of change tell us how the program’s activities will result in reducing conflict or building peace. Conflict programming theories of change should be linked to the conflict diagnosis and target driving factors in the conflict equation. A series of program vignettes will be introduced and participants will pair up in a two-part exercise to identify the theories of change underlying the program’s approach and what part of the conflict equation is targeted. Participants will draw the theories of change and provide a brief report-out to the full group. Facilitators will close the session by mentioning some peacebuilding field lessons learned thus far, mainly through the Reflecting on Peace Practice (RPP) Project, that provides some theory of change guidance. Facilitators need to be aware that timing is tight in this module. In order for participants to fully experience the intended learning associated with each exercise, facilitators need to follow the time allotments. Session Duration: 1 hour and 40 minutes

Section Time Presentation/Description OVERVIEW OF THEORIES OF CHANGE PPT

30 MINS

Provide overview of TOC in reviewing slides 1-8 on basic TOC principles.

EXERCISE 1: VIGNETTES

35 MINS

Participants choose “if/then” cards, get into pairs and discuss vignettes and then report out.

EXERCISE 2: DRAWING TOCS

30 MINS

Slide 9, participant groups practice drawing a theory of change and then report out.

LESSONS LEARNED AND RESOURCES

5 MINS

Review lessons learned from CMM and the field along with key resources, slides 10 – 11.

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Checklist: Items Needed for this Module

Programming Vignettes in participant binder

Laptop and projector loaded with Module 6 PPT

25 laminated notecards with if/then statements and vignette numbers

Flip chart paper, markers and tape

Contact Hypothesis poster

Program Wheel poster

If…Then…poster

Objectives

At the end of this workshop, participants will be able to: 1. Describe the concept of theories of change. 2. Identify theories of change in conflict programming. 3. Develop program theories of change linked to the conflict equation.

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PPT Presentation – Slides 1 – 8 (30 minutes)

Slide 1

Review the objectives, and highlight how theories of change serve as the foundation for program design. Refer back to the Program Wheel poster to emphasize the program’s “develop strategic response” and “design programs” elements.

Each strategy/program approach is based on one or more theories of change that explain how we expect to achieve the stated goal. Do a quick time check, as slides 1 – 8 are allotted only 30 minutes. Limit discussion accordingly.

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Slide 2

CMM started doing research a number of years ago because proposals received didn’t address why the bidder was proposing a particular approach/process. In addition, proposals/designs were not explicating the results or the change expected; thus, it was thought that a TOC would increase M&E efforts.

The resources include various means and tools, including how to incorporate a TOC, for design and implementation of development programs with a specific goal of peacebuilding: CDA’s “Reflecting on Peace,” OECD/DAC’s “Guide on Evaluation of Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding Activities,” Search for Common Ground’s “Guide on Integrating M&E in Conflict Transformation Programs” and Catholic Relief Services’ toolkit on planning, monitoring and learning titled “Reflective Peacebuilding.”

So, what is a theory of change?

• In addition to being practitioners, we should also want to become theorists and work to understand the world around us. Even though we think of “theory” as academia isolated from the practical world, in reality it is all around us. We use theories every day and should not shy away from them.

• Too often, development professionals operate without clearly thinking through and articulating our thoughts on how our approaches will create change and what that change will look like.

• Conflict remains a new field and does not yet have the extent of rich literature that some fields, like public health, do. Conflict practitioners worldwide are working aggressively to build our knowledge of what works in what contexts. USAID is in a phase of testing hypotheses to gauge good practices.

• Theories are critical to the design of good programs, as well as to the monitoring and evaluation of these programs to understand whether our approaches are in fact creating the desired change and achieving our overall goals.

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Slide 3

TOCs are not the same thing as programming logic (log frames or results frameworks). Conflict 102 does not focus on results frameworks/program logic—that will happen in a forthcoming CMM Advanced M&E course. Overall, program design from a TOC approach can help generate a better results framework (RF). Thus, the concepts are complementary.

• Theories are nothing more than assumptions about how things work; how things fit together. Think of the theory as the big picture, while programming logic is all the steps you need to take to get there. At the simplest level, theories are “if/then” statements. They do not have to be complicated.

• Both TOC and programming logic are important, but they are different. The success of a program depends on both — you have to get both right. If your TOC is right but your programming logic and implementation are poor, your intervention will fail. If your TOC is not right, even a good results framework and a great program implementation will not yield the desired results.

• This introductory conflict course will stay at the high level of TOC. Other courses like “Program Design and Management” and the CMM’s forthcoming “Advanced Conflict Programming” delve further into TOCs relative to lower-level program logic.

Let’s look at one recent example from the Colombia Mission.

Optional Refresher: • Results framework/log frame is a graphical representation of the program’s

components: development objective, intermediate results, critical assumptions and often lower-level inputs and activity-level results.

• It also should provide a development hypothesis: “Hypothesized cause-and-effect linkages between the intermediate results and the strategic objective.”

• A “development hypothesis” is close to a TOC, but not the same thing. If you use the theory of change approach to program design, you can develop a stronger, causally linked results framework with an explicit development hypothesis linked to context analysis.

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Slide 4

Here we see the current Mission Goal Statement from USAID/Colombia’s CDCS and a TOC for a program that is helping the Mission achieve this goal. In the fall of 2014, the Colombia Mission contacted CMM with a request for technical support in designing three new programs that were central to the Mission’s overall CDCS goal of helping Colombia implement a sustainable and inclusive peace. One of these programs focused on the reintegration of ex-combatants in the event of a signed peace agreement between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the government. Working in the field with the design team for this program, the following TOC was developed: [From slide] “If motivations and incentives for violence and participation in armed groups are changed among disengaged child soldiers and ex-combatants to mitigate recidivism, and community members are engaged in the reintegration process, then ex-combatants are more likely to become law-abiding members of society accepted by their communities.” This TOC was ultimately used by the Mission and was very helpful in guiding the overall design of the program.

Key takeaway: Programs with a strong TOC can help guide the overall design of a program and will often have to be sensitive to political dynamics on the ground.

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Next, let’s revisit the contact hypothesis.

Option: If anyone is interested in the full strategic results framework, the following can be shared. The TOC was based on IR2. The Mission incorporated three programs as intermediate results (IRs) under development objective 2 (DO2). The Mission RF is as follows: Mission Goal: Colombia more capable of successfully implementing a sustainable and inclusive peace DO2: Reconciliation advanced among victims, ex-combatants and other citizens. IR1: Improved reparations and services provided to conflict victims IR2: Demobilized combatants reintegrated into society IR3: Truth-telling processes effectively launched

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Slide 5

Use the example shown on the slide to discuss what a program might look like to support this TOC. Introduce a quick background on the contact hypothesis, then read aloud the TOC on the slide and ask participants to respond to the question posed. Contact Hypothesis comes from research on inter-group relations by Gordon Allport in the 1950s. He explored the merit of establishing cooperative, equal-status interactions between members of groups in conflict to work toward super-ordinate goals. Such interactions are hypothesized to break down prejudices about “the other” and build cooperative relationships across groups.

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Slide 6

In the last activity, we learned how to track a TOC. Now we’re going to learn how to develop a TOC.

Research by the previously mentioned Reflecting Peace Practice Project continues to show that programs are not performing a solid conflict analysis and are not sufficiently relating their program design to driving factors of conflict/peace identified for that particular context. As you’re identifying what needs to change, it is helpful to go back to the conflict equation to break down the various components.

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Slide 7

Step 1, what needs to change: The point of showing the conflict equation is to remember to go back to the conflict analysis to identify where in the program (what conflict drivers) you want your TOC to target. We sometimes work around trigger moments, but that is a reactionary response that often chases actors, rather than the drivers of conflict (grievances) that may be mobilized by those key actors. Thus, the TOC should always be grounded in the drivers of conflict and also consider the trigger and/or key actor.

Key takeaway: Be sure to target the right parts of the conflict equation for the particular context and the drivers your program is specifically able to impact. Which grievance, key actors, triggers, etc., represent openings for assistance? Different interventions can have theories that target different parts of the conflict equation, depending on the conflict diagnosis findings.

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Slide 8

Step 2: Specify how the needed change will happen with carefully formulated “if” and “then” segments of the theory or theories of change. Be specific about the type of change (knowledge, attitudes, skills, policies) and the target of change (key individuals, groups, institutions). In reviewing the second bullet, note the TOC families in CMM’s THINC publication by asking: What is the type of change you’re looking to address — behaviors (includes skills), attitudes or institutions? Reference the subtheories on p. 20-24 of the TOC Guide that show a variety of different approaches given your analysis and the context. TOC Family 1: Shifts in Attitudes seeks to influence attitudes and psychological drivers and the effects of mass mobilization. Subtheories include: Trauma Healing, Social/Cultural Contact, Cooperation and Mutual Interest, Problem Solving and Dialogue, Attitudes about Conflict, Mass Attitudes about Conflict, and “Culture of Peace.” Shifts in attitudes usually target more people but can also target key actors. TOC Family 2: Shifts in Behaviors assumes that behaviors can be changed directly, without requiring attitude change. Subtheories include: Changing Elite Means, Resolving the Security Dilemma, Incentives for Peace, Addressing Domestic Divisions, and Improving Skills and Processes. Shifts in behavior usually target key actors. TOC Family 3: Shifts in Institutions are situations where formal and informal institutions lack capability to respond to needs of the population. Subtheories include: Statebuilding TOC, Liberal Peace TOC, Traditional Institutions TOC, and Ad-hoc or Transitional TOC. What is the target of change you’re looking to address? Key people (individuals, government and organizations) or more people (communities, targeted populations or regional area)? Now that we’ve discussed how important it is to link a TOC back to the conflict analysis, let’s try to visualize it.

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Exercise 1, Part A: Breaking Participants into Pairs (5 minutes)

In preparation for this exercise, the training team needs to think through the number of participants coupled with the number of if/then statement cards to ensure that the cards are compatible (e.g., if there are 18 participants, then trainer or logistician needs to match up 9 matching if/then statements to hand out).

1. Hand out one note card with if/then statement to each participant.

2. Have participants find the person who has the other half of their statement, noting that people with an “if” should find the person with the proper “then” scenario to match their TOC.

3. When they have found their match, pairs are to sit together. Let participants know that personal items can be left at their seats, but they should take their binders. Tell participants to ignore the number on the slip of paper for now.

Exercise 1, Part B: Programming Vignettes (15 minutes)

1. Refer participants to the conflict/peacebuilding Programming Vignettes in their participant binders. Note that the number of the vignette assigned to them is on the bottom right side of the note card. Read each programming vignette and identify the underlying theory (or theories) of change that shape the vignette.

2. Do the first two vignettes as a group. Ask one participant to read the example

vignette and then ask for volunteers to identify the theory of change. Be very careful to ensure that the participants are talking about TOCs and not about programming logic (i.e., building an RF for the program). Re-emphasize the difference if necessary. (Facilitator notes for all TOCs of vignettes are on page 15.)

All programming vignettes are based on actual programs, but are not necessarily good TOCs.

Report out (15 minutes)

Ask for volunteers to present their theories of change. Ask pairs to put forward vignettes so the class can discuss those they felt were particularly complex or interesting. Discuss up to five examples, depending on amount of time remaining. Facilitator may also need to clarify outstanding questions regarding theories of change.

Key takeaways: 1. One program may have more than one theory of change at work. That is not

necessarily a problem, but the theories should be clear and not conflict with one another or overlap.

2. Given high staff turnover in conflict-affected countries, program logic that supports TOC is often lost. Therefore, it is necessary to capture the logic and assumption made when creating a TOC.

3. A solid theory of change will also help you establish change indicators and measure program effectiveness.

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Conflict 102 / Module 6 / Exercise 1, part A Conflict Programming: Theories of Change If . . . Then Card Exercise (Print Single Sided)

If I do not set my alarm clock

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then I will be late for work.

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If I skip lunch

4

then I will be hungry.

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If I drop my teacup 5

then it will break 10

If I touch a hot stove 6

then I will burn my hand.

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If I make my contracting officer angry

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then all of my procurement actions

will take a long time. 8

If I study for my exam 8

then I will get a good grade.

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If I flip the light switch 9

then the light will come on. 6

If I become ill from eating at a restaurant

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then I will not eat at that restaurant again.

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If I do not go to work 11

then I will lose my job. 3

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If I mail a package

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then it will arrive at its destination.

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If I do not open my email for several days

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then I will miss important news.

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If I am kind to my colleague

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then my colleague will be nice to me.

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If I do not receive my paycheck

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then I will not be able to pay my bills.

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If I am in a bad mood

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then I am more likely to become

angry. 7

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Conflict 102 / Module 6 / Exercise 1, part B Programming Vignettes 1. This program focuses on bringing together teenagers from warring parties before fear, mistrust and prejudice blind them from seeing the human face of their enemy. The program’s goal is to reverse the legacy of hatred by nurturing lasting friendships that become the basis for mutual understanding and respect. The teenagers come together in a camp-like setting and receive conflict resolution skills that will help transform them into “seeds” from which an enduring peace will grow. Each government will select teenagers for participation without regard to economic or social background, and base selection solely on academic performance and leadership ability. These young people are destined to become tomorrow's leaders. 2. Prior to the beginning of formal peace talks next month, we have received requests from both sides to support the negotiations. Specifically, we have been requested to provide coaching to the principal negotiation teams on negotiation skills. We have also proposed to establish an impartial technical secretariat that would be staffed with experts on issues the negotiations are likely to address, including disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), transitional justice and the return of refugees and the internally displaced to their home districts. 3. This capacity-building initiative’s objective is to help rebuild a war-torn society, overcome deep-seated ethnic hostility and spur post-war economic reconstruction. Through a series of interactive workshops, facilitators help leaders hone the skills needed to guide economic recovery and transition to democracy. An ethnically diverse cross-section of 100 leaders-from government, the army, rebel organizations and civil society will be strategically chosen for this initiative, which aims to work across traditional lines of ethnic and political division to forge a sustainable network of leaders. The core training is a six-day workshop that incorporates simulations, role-playing and other interactive exercises designed to strengthen skills in negotiations, communications, visioning and group problem-solving and strategic planning. Following their initial workshop, the participants repeatedly reconvene for further training. 4. This program will provide logistical and technical support to the newly established Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). The five goals of the TRC are to create an impartial historical record of violations and abuses, address impunity, respond to the needs of the victims, promote healing and reconciliation and prevent a repetition of the violations and abuses suffered. The support provided through this project will enable the TRC to hold hearings in all five provinces of the country, ensure that proceedings are recorded in both national languages and increase public awareness of the TRC and its deliberations through outreach via radio and television skits and jingles that will promote the initiative and emphasize the healing effects of truth-telling. In doing so, the TRC will help to rebuild the nation.

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5. This program will counter the dynamics of resurgent conflict and deepening divisions between ethnic communities at the local level through a range of local radio programs and outreach activities linked with local community networks. Working with journalists who live in affected communities, radio programs will explore complex problems in depth, providing all perspectives and potential solutions while telling stories that affirm person-to-person links across ethnic divides. Broadcasts will cover key conflict-affected populations. All activities will take place through established media production and resource centers, part of a sustained strategy to develop regional media targeting local needs. 6. This program will focus on building the capacity of the Electoral Commission to manage multiple aspects of the upcoming elections, including voter registration and ballot counting. Training will focus on both technical issues of registration and election management as well as on issues of ethics and dispute resolution. Support will also be provided for public relations campaigns and outreach activities to promote the image of the Electoral Commission as an effective and neutral body. 7. This project will pilot a new policing initiative to introduce modern, internationally accepted community policing methods. The aim is to reorient the police force in two ethnically diverse cities through training and new promotion opportunities to become street-level problem solvers and dispute resolvers, rather than heavy-handed enforcers. The pilot project will also provide portable radios to improve communication and bicycles to ensure an even police presence in all neighborhoods. The increased presence provided through this project is expected to reduce the number of violent altercations, while the police’s credibility with the people increases. 8. This year, major holidays of the two dominant religions coincide. Historically, each holiday alone has been an occasion for street demonstrations and clashes with adherents of the other religion. Both religions celebrating at the same time creates a risk of greater violence that may well overwhelm the abilities of the police. As a preventive measure, this project will undertake a radio-based media campaign that employs respected religious leaders and quotations from religious texts to emphasize each religion’s commitment to peace and to the peaceful foundation of both holidays. 9. The goal of the proposed activity is to contribute to the transition from war to peace by revitalizing targeted communities through capacity building that addresses issues facing youth within these communities. The program will:

• Increase awareness and knowledge about sources of conflict and vulnerability in the target areas.

• Increasing the capacity of the parastatal youth organization to enable it to become a credible and sustainable youth development organization and to serve as a significant driving force behind community revitalization and reintegration of war-affected populations.

• Encourage participatory community decision-making through local community councils.

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• Increase opportunities for youth in the target areas through the development of

two community centers and provision of small construction grants to provide additional physical infrastructure and jobs and skills for youth.

• Decrease tensions and frustrations among youth by providing sports facilities. 10. The unregulated mining and trade of diamonds has been a source of conflict as rival armed gangs have competed for a share of it. Revenue from this illicit trade has also provided financing to these gangs, which they have used to buy weapons and attract more recruits. Finally, the illicit trade also represents revenue lost to the government. And for a government still dependent on commodity exports, this loss seriously erodes its ability to provide basic social services. To begin addressing this problem, this multi-year program will improve the government’s ability to manage its diamond trade by streamlining diamond export regulations, increasing surveillance at the borders and in the diamond mining region and establishing the Diamond Mining Communities Foundation, which will channel a portion of government diamond revenues back into communities in the form of locally selected community projects. 11. This program builds upon three years of local-level civil administration training and community dialogues that have increased governance capacity in those districts of the country where the opposition was strongest and thus where violence associated with the recent civil unrest was most severe. The program will increase the capacity of municipal administrations and assemblies to: 1) undertake participatory budget planning, in coordination with newly established representative local public assemblies, to address local priorities; 2) generate revenues through fair and transparent procedures; and 3) effectively and transparently control finances. 12. This program will address the destructive impacts of conflict-related sexual violence, empowering survivors and their communities to build a society committed to inclusion, non-violence, and gender equity. Drawing on a comprehensive gender and conflict assessment, the program will address the needs of both female and male survivors, offering health services, psychosocial support, and skills training to expand livelihood opportunities and mitigate the economic impacts of ongoing stigmatization. Recognizing the challenging social context survivors must navigate, the program will include a radio and billboard campaign to decrease the misunderstanding and marginalization of survivors and strengthen community support for their social integration, emphasizing that sexual violence is an issue affecting both women and men. The program will also build community capacity by training cadres of local men and women as community facilitators for gender-specific local sexual violence dialogue groups, whose aim will be to raise community awareness of the problem, decrease social stigmatization, strengthen available support networks, and empower men, especially youth, to reject sexual violence as a tool of conflict.

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Programming Vignettes: Facilitator Key

1. If teenagers from warring parties are brought together in a camp setting and provided conflict resolution skills, then the legacy of hatred can be reversed by nurturing lasting friendships that become the basis for mutual understanding and respect.

This example of the contact hypothesis that we briefly discussed is from “Seeds of Peace.” Assumptions and/or consideration of the selection process for teenagers who are brought together are important criteria.

2. If negotiation teams receive skills training and coordinates with the approved

Technical Secretariat before formal peace talks begin, then the negotiation team will be able to better facilitate discussions on issues such as DDR, transitional justice and the return of refugees. What other considerations or assumptions might be needed to ensure that the TOC is sound? Example: The principal negotiation team is well-respected and trusted by all parties and there are not obvious biases that will deter discussion.

3. If leadership training that focuses on negotiation, problem-solving and

communication skills is offered to key actors from the government, rebel groups and civil society, then relations across ethnic and societal groups will be built, which will guide economic recovery and the transition to democracy. Deep-seated ethnic hostility can’t be resolved through skills-building alone and requires acknowledgment of histories, acceptance of the present and enough trust and willingness to come together with “the other.” The network of leaders in particular would need the space to come to terms with key individual grievances held before being able to work together going forward (e.g., economic reconstruction).

4. If logistical and technical support is provided to the five goals of the TRC and it holds bilingual hearings and other outreach activities in all five provinces, then the TRC will promote and support truth-telling as a means of healing. Vignette notes that this will help to rebuild the nation, which of course is not viable; the TRC alone will not necessarily rebuild the nation, but perhaps rebuilding relations across the nation could be noted within the “then” statement.

5. If journalists work with local radio networks to broadcast radio programs using

existing media resources that tell the local perspective among conflict-affected communities, then person-to-person links can be established, which will help counter divisions and explore solutions among the ethnic communities. The phrase noting that radio programs will be created to “explore complex problems in depth” could be a stretch – radio programs are effective, but the “depth” is uncertain without face-to-face dialogue integrated into the approach as well.

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6. If training on voter registration, ballot counting, ethics and dispute resolution is

provided to the Electoral Commission, and a public relations campaign promotes the Electoral Commission as a neutral body, then the Electoral Commission will be able to better manage the upcoming elections. This is programming around a potential trigger moment – elections. Is training the Electoral Commission sufficient? Building such a “trusted” commission is not a short-term program and therefore would ideally need to be in the works years ahead of the elections so the commission can reach local populations on these issues.

7. If training in dispute resolution is provided to police in ethnically diverse cities,

and better communication methods and transportation are provided to increase police presence in all neighborhoods, then violent altercations will decrease and police credibility will increase. This is an example of crime management rather than conflict mitigation or peacebuilding programming. It does not seek to address the causes of conflict, but rather the consequences. The use of an internationally accepted method may or may not be applicable to the situation in play. Understanding local dynamics is always important, particularly for a program that is attempting to build relations between local community and what may be perceived as weak institution (police force).

8. If a radio-based campaign addresses the coinciding of two major religious

holidays by employing religious leaders to read quotes from texts that emphasize each religions commitment to peace, then clashes and violence during the holiday celebrations will be prevented. This example uses key actors to program around a potential triggering moment. Concerns with this TOC include: “employing” the religious leaders to speak out for peaceful holiday celebrations – they should not be paid, but should want to volunteer these efforts. If paid, communities would likely see it as less meaningful and assume that the participants are just doing it for the money.

9. If issues facing youth are addressed by: increasing awareness on the sources of

conflict, creating a youth development organization and community council, providing job skills training through community centers and providing sports facilities for recreation, then capacity building will occur among youth in targeted communities, which will help the transition from war to peace. The “if” does not promote the change identified in the “then.” Will building a few capacities push the transition from war to peace? Probably not. This example has multiple projects within that are not necessarily relative to capacity building. Only the first two bullets are really building capacities of youth; the other bullets could be separate projects and would likely require a separate TOC.

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10. If a program is established to improve the government’s ability to manage the

diamond trade by streamlining regulations, increasing surveillance and establishing a foundation that channels diamond revenue back into the community, then competition over diamonds and illicit trade revenues will significantly decrease violence. Are the armed gangs from the communities into which the diamond revenue would feed? Will this be enough to stave off gangs from the diamond industry?

11. If programs build on the civil administration training provided to undertake

participatory budget planning, generate revenues through fair and transparent procedures and effectively control finances, then governance capacity will increase in districts with the strongest opposition and violence during the civil war. This is an example of working in a conflict zone but not working on the conflict issues. It focuses on a consequence of the violence (weak government capacities), rather than a cause.

12. If survivors of sexual violence are provided with psychosocial and economic support, and their communities are empowered to support their reintegration and reject the use of sexual violence during conflict, then the effects of conflict-related sexual violence can be mitigated and future sexual violence levels decreased. This vignette provides an example of CMM’s “gender-relational” approach to conflict programming, which works to understand the experiences of both women and men, as well as the relationships between them during and after conflict.

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Exercise 2: Theories of Change and Conflict Diagnosis (10 minutes)

Slide 9

Show participants the laminated drawing as an example and ask them to guess the theory of change. From looking at the drawing, the theory could be something like: “If we collect weapons from opposing sides, then maize will grow and communities will live peacefully.” It is so broad that we can see the theory of change is not tight enough. The proposed action (the “if” statement) is not connected closely enough to the change we are expecting. A gap needs to be filled. The benefit of doing the drawing is that it may make the gaps more obvious and visible.

1. Participants should remain seated with their vignette partner. Each table should have two vignette pairs. Each group will select only one of their vignettes for the new task. This vignette may be from either of the original paired groups. The participants in groups of 4 will now consider the conflict equation linkage and draw the theory of change.

2. Each group now draws the theory of change selected for the vignette.

3. Use the drawing to assess the quality of the theory of change: Does the if/then statement show how that change will happen? What type of change is being targeted (attitudes, behaviors and institutions)? What is the target of change (key people or more people)? How does the change relate to components of the conflict equation?

Note that overall, making the drawing helps develop and refine a program’s underlying theory or theories of change. Many people process important connections better when they can visualize them. In addition, a drawing of the theory of change can help us assess if the theory is specific and linked to the most important part(s) of the conflict equation for that particular context.

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Report Out and Discussion (20 minutes)

It is possible for groups to choose the same vignette. If this occurs, then facilitate in an iterative manner to compare and contrast those two groups. 1. Have each group take turns guessing what the other group’s TOC is and how it fits

into the conflict equation. 2. Ensure that groups not only identify the theory/theories in their vignette, but that

they also identify which part of the conflict equation their vignette was addressing.

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Final Discussion PowerPoint Slides 10 – 11 (5 minutes)

Slide 10

Re-emphasize to participants that articulating theories of change is particularly important in a “young” field like conflict studies where many approaches and programs — often untested — compete for attention and donor dollars. The world of conflict is newer than other development sectors, so it is especially important to try to distill these lessons to use in the future. The implications for both programming and for monitoring and evaluation will be explored in Module 9. These “lessons learned” come mainly from the Reflecting on Peace Practice project and from USAID/CMM evaluations. The RPP project is based on hypotheses or theoretical propositions supported by factual data (based on more than 20 case studies) trying to predict certain outcomes for a specific type of intervention. These are general findings but they are a start. In fact, they are extremely useful to keep in mind as we think through conflict programming (which you will do when you return to the case study).

Key takeaway: Target the TOC at the appropriate level (e.g. community, political) and be realistic about the change in conflict or peace that is possible given the resources available.

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Slide 11

Remind participants of the resource materials available to them along with these training materials, which will be shared with them through Google Drive after the course. These sources include: CMM’s conflict programming toolkits; Reflecting on Peace Practice Project publications; the peacebuilding field’s recent manuals using theory of change program design and M&E (manuals prepared by Search for Common Ground; University of Notre Dame Kroc Institute/Catholic Relief Services). There are also are some sources of theories of change for peacebuilding. Emphasize the various CMM sources:

a. The Conflict Equation and USAID/CMM’s Conflict Assessment tool are grounded in the field’s theories of change, and are updated (as needed) to reflect newly accepted theories of change.

b. CMM has issued multiple toolkits on conflict programming topics (youth, women, forests, religion, peace processes, community-driven development, etc.) that reflect lessons learned and present programming approaches.

c. Mention USAID/CMM’s ongoing work to develop a Theories of Change Matrix for conflict prevention and peacebuilding that is linked to the conflict equation (Conflict Assessment 2.0 elements), with sample activities and quality performance indicators for each theory. The matrix categorizes change theories into seven major “families” that link to some element(s) in USAID/CMM‘s Conflict Assessment Framework.