16
Archive of SID www.SID.ir

Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!"#$%&'()*+*,-(./0*12(34(5.+6$'4(+7(8+9+:;24(<21+=>()?"+@;(5!=*A(<3+'

!"#$%&'()*+,$-%./01$.2345

!"#$%&'()"*+,-."/012345"*67%"809:

;!"<#=2345<(+>5/?-'@*:ABC123450/D4(EF

6&789

5G45"*'H0IG09JI"K#LF"M%(N"O>"MN0935"<0:G#2>"(+29I"G5"P'509-I"Q'0-."R4"*S'"80T0UFG4"<GA0-V"W/4G"O76XR4""""Y:0Z>"[*F0Z9\"M,-Z."P'4"G5"M9]V#^"<0:

/?-'@"_#`A"8G#."G5"MJS)"K06+\4R4"a6+L^"<0:b0c,34"<0:5(U:4G"A"0:#'G0-N"*\4(T"d'(T"/?-'@"<4(I"('eCMN4"WfAG"O76X"R4"*J'#3#'G0-N"g'4G"<0:

"fAG"R4"/50h+N4"0I"M9,c`"i?%"5(S'AG !"#$%&"$'(!)*$+,-.*^?)0I"W"G5"P'4fAG[""""""H0ZI"MZ9,c`"i?Z%"<4G45"D4(Z29C"<A(Z93"ON"0'"A5"QT0]F"R4"#'G0-N"(:

*^"O+j0N5#)W1'5"b(T"R4"*'0:(9k+^"<4G45"#'G0-N"(:"(MN4""""""""('0ZN(I"*ZlGmI"(9n0ZF"0Z:(9k+^R4"*ZS'"G5"(Z99kF"o?Z34"MN4"PS6^A"?-+J:"p:"0I"a^0,F"G5"O>

*^"Oq0J^"P'4"O>"?)0I"O+)45"0:(9k+^MN09N"/R#\"G5"?34#F?)0I"M96:4"mr0\"<G4elWK?^"[G#s-^"P'?IOI"#'G0-N"<R0N""""""4G"MZ97I0`"PZ'4"0Z'#C"p+ZJ9N"tZ'"D4#-%

*^"p:4(VM.(V"A"84(T0u^"O>"5R0NOI"/?-'@"<0:O+JX(I"8G#.5#)"oG5"(F"W""""""tZ'"R4"tZ9^0-'5"K?Z^"tZ'"[p+ZJ9N"*'0'#C"5(S'AG"R4"/50h+N4"0I"Oq0]^"P'4"G5

"G4mV4"i(3"t6>"OI"vwNA"/?'5(l"Or4G4"0h^0C"x(T"O,N#F"0I"80T0UFG4"/R#\"G5"#'G0-N/0&(#"""""0-ZN"PZ'4"&Z7+u^"<4mZX4"84(Zn4"*NG(I"OI"""G5"(1'?ZS'"(ZI"#'Gy

"O>"5#)"P99,F"0F"MN4"/?)"O+j45(C"&7+u^"M9,zA*7j45"{q0j03"?9q#F"""O,ZN#F"[MZqA5"OX5#I"Y'4mV4"0'"A"5G45"4G"Y'4mV4"P'(+29I"*'0:(9k+^"O|"(9n0F"MLF

*^"(n0+^"(+29I"4G"Mj0N('R"84m9E=F"?9q#F"0'"?-> !MN09N"0'"A"MqA5"*+'06\"<0:}M9V0,^"A"i4Aq0^"<0:*F09"~O'0^(N"0'A""""""OZ|"OZI"*Z.#�j"YZuI"<G4eZl

*^"8G#.?)0I"?34#FW

&7:16;*<"=$>"fAG"[#'G0-N"[p+J9N"*'0'#C"#$80T0UFG4"[

,?@(&A(%

Y9C" 0:#'G0-N" 0'"*'#l"O9U)"(+29I" [OS7I"?-+J93" /?-'@" 5(U:4G

O9z(V" OI/?-'@" 5G#^" G5" *'0:8A0h+^" <0:OI" O>" ?34"8G#.

/B'AO+JX(I"<4(I"<4M.(V" A"84(T0u^"<R0N"5#X#^"<0:

/R#\" G5*^" *\4(T" �0j" <5(U:4G" <0:?3#)& '" W"(:

*^"*'0:(9k+^"<4G45"#'G0-N"0I"a^0,F"G5"0:(9k+^"P'4"O>"?)0I

"A"?-+J:"p:"(9n0F"0:(9k+^R4"*S'"G5"(99kF"o?34"MN4"PS6^

*^"Oq0J^"P'4"O>"?)0I"O+)45"0:(9k+^"('0N"(I"*lGmI"G5"?34#F

MN09N" /R#\?)0I" M96:4" mr0\" <G4el" WK?^"#'G0-N" <R0N

OI*^" p:4(V" 4G" M97I0`" P'4" 0'#C" p+J9N"t'" D4#-%"O>" 5R0N

"�/?-J'#3/?E%G4580UF0S^"�()*)+,-()+.-/01)*--23-4

M.(V"A"84(T0u^OI"/?-'@"<0:O+JX(I"8G#.5#)"oG5"(FW

"A" 54(V4" <#N" R4" <G013#'G0-N" G5" *FA0h+^" <0:5(S'AG

D0^R0N"YN(C"_#3"OI"0-I"t'(:"O>"/?)"50E-29C"&7+u^"<0:

/01'0C"OI"*N(+N5"D4m9^" [<G013#'G0-N"*7.4"_#z#^" 0'"<0:

*^"�0u+34"D0l(Uj"{�uF"D4m9^"A"54?,F" [/545?3#)W"*S'

fAG"R4mFG4#)"(+9C"fAG"*J'#3#'G0-N"g'4G"<0: N#^"OI"i#

" G0>A"�J>"*30EX" OSU)};"#$" ~MN4W"(:"fAG"P'4" G5

D4(29C"<A(93"ON" 0'"A5"QT0]F"R4"#'G0-N�i?%"<4G45"M9,c`

*^" O+j0N" H0I5#)&;'" W"?'0I" 4?+I4" �9F(F" P'4" OI

56 7898+:;3*<)+9=>6 "?-@)?:#A(./8((:$89<-+,B6 C+.D8+

*67%"O^0-7�V!*2:ABC

%+<"B#$<$C:D$E3"73$F"3G+"'9$6+"HI$-J$-K"LMN"!,OP,

www.SID.ir

Page 2: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!"#$%&'()*$+,#(-.$/")01$%2(345673$+0(089$:;<0'&$2=$/:(>53=$(?$@(A(B.&=

C

i?%M9,c`*34(LI"<0: 5#)"{u2^O>"P99,F"MEX0E3@"R4

*^"/50h+N4"*FA0h+^"<0:5(S'AG5#)"W"Q^0X"fAG"t'"/50h+N4

<5#E)" dc-^" *U9>(F" 5(S'AG" R4;Gel(I" G0n@" a97LFA�

*^?)0I" WpE^"O>"*^01-:i?%"P'(FM9,c`dc-^"A"0:"O>"*'0:

*^" m'06+^" p:" R4" 4G" 0:#'G0-N"D5(>" G0I(C" ?)"{u2^" ?-->

M7SN4"<0:?3AG"A"<?97>"a^4#%"OI"_#XG"0I"0:#'G0-N"<?-I

" 4(X4" aI0`" /?)" *'0N0-)MN4" W" O>" *^01-:"0I" 0:#'G0-N

"5(>" {u2^" *%#3" OI" ?'0I" ?-+V0'" O,N#F" (+29I" 809rmX

M'#qA4A"*7.4"80%#z#^"R4"i4?>"(:"G5"/?)"*'0N0-)"<0:

*^" (s3" OI" G#T" O|" 0:#'G0-N�9N@" O|" �?NG<('eC"*'0:

"<AG"*lGmI"(9n0F"(9k+^"i4?>"o?34"(99kF"OS-'4"A"5G45"5#XA

" 5(S'AG" R4" /50h+N4" 0I" O>" 5G45" O%#6=^" a>"p+J9N" *'0'#C

*^MV0'"MN5"g'0+3"P'4"OI"D4#F&�A�'W

4mX4<i?%" OI" OX#F" 0I" 0:#'G0-NM9,c`*^"&'(,F" 0:?3#)"W

i?%M9,c`"O,N#F"a^0)"84(I0u^"/R#\"G5"/?)"&'(,F"<0:

Mj0N('R"M,-." P+V(l" (s3" G5" aI0]^" G5" *F4(I0u^" <0:

OI" 84(I0u^" *+,-." /R#\" t'" D4#-%MN4"M9,c`" i?%" A

\"(1'5/R#\" R4"M'06M'#qA4"*+,-."<0:"G4R0I" (I4(I" G5" G45

"*+I0`G}54R@"~*^"(s3?^"<#'G0-N"*7.4"<4mX4"A"?)0I"C7

AMj0N('R !E}i?%" 0I" (�0-+^"('R" O,N#F" M9,c`

Mj0N~A84m9E=F !E}i?%" 0I" (�0-+^"R4"M'06\"M9,c`

/R#\M'#qA4"<0:G45" ~*^MN09N" O>" ?)0I"<AG"*q06%4"<0:

DA(I"<0:(9k+^"OT#I(^"<#'G0-N"*7.4"<0:(9k+^" G0+VG" (I" 4R

MV(l"?:4#j"G4(`"*NG(I"5G#^W

4?$Q=<RS$@B7T7S

"G5" *F4�" M9,c`" i?%" 0:#'G0-N" R4" /50h+N4" a9q5" P9qA4

Y9CA" <(13Y9CMN4" *-9I" W"G5" 80%�T4" i06F" M`A" �9:

p+J9N" 0I" ?'0I" A" MJ93" MN5�#)@" �'4()G5" 0:�

/(s+-^(9�AO>"<4Y9C"aI0`"(9�"�0F4�?)"AG"OI"AG"?-+J:"*-9I"W

D@" R4" /50h+N4" A" M9,c`" i?%" QI0-^" Mj0-)" 0I" 0:#'G0-N"0:

OIO'0C" D4#-%/?-'@"�0N4A[a'?I" <0:"Y]3" <0h'4"�0N4" (I

i?%M9,c`*^"O+j0N"5#X#^"<0:?3#)W

56 !+.9.3)?:A/38+9)./91>6 /9A.9.D8:F-G.3B6 !+-((: 4H)39:I/)?1(.(J6 !*-)(

"v'(F0^"#$MN4"�c`" 0'"M9,c`" i?%" ?,IA5" (I" *-+U^"W

G0E|" (13023" K#7N" G0E|�c`" R4" a'?I" �9>(F"A5" <0:

i?%"G#L^" 0'"dc-^"<A0\" 0E3@" R4"t'"(:" O>"?-+J:"M9,c`

D0S^4" /?-'@" t'MN4" ('eC" W"�JI" A" x()" G#L^" (:" vwN

*^*^"(1'5"*+q0\"0'"a^0>"D0+N45"t'"OI"a'?UF"A"?I0'"A"5#)

"�LI" *3#30>" A"<m>(^" Oq0J^" 0'" p96�F"<0:?^09C" 5G#^" G5

*^5#)&y'W

" /0l?'5" R4D#+3#:" A"�0:y"i?%" P99,F" *7.4" 5(S'AG" ON" [

R4"?-FG0U%"0:#'G0-N"x4(T"80JN#^"P9I"G5"M9,c`&�A�'�

<5#E)"dc-^�

?3AG"(I"84(9n0F"a97LF"dc-^�

Gel(I"G0n@"a97LF"dc-^�

" *7.4" 5(S'AG" A5" �9>(F" R4" [P929C" 80,q0c^" G5�"dc-^

<5#E)" �" A�Gel" (I" G0n@"a97LF" �M9,c`" i?%"P99,F" G5"<0:

MN4" /?)" /50h+N4"80T0UFG4" /R#\" Wi0l" O>"OI"D@"*7.4"<0:

*^"('R"x()?)0I&�A�'�"MJu3"i0lK"0:#'G0-N"*7.4"m>(6F"D5(>"P)AG"A"<R0NG0S)@

}*7.4"YN(C~

"iA5"i0lK80T0UFG4"�R#\"G5"G4el(9n0F"<?97>"a^4#%"*'0N0-)

"i#N"i0lK<?97>"a^4#%"Gel(I"G0n@"a97LF

" iG0E|" i0lKi?%" �0N4(I" *]c-^" �#|G0|" 50='4M9,c`"<0:

"/?)"*'0N0-)

"p=-C"i0lKO�u2^"D5(>"G0I(CD0+N45"O,N#F"A"*7.4"<0:"<4(I"0:

"0:#'G0-N"R4"t'(:

i?%" &9.#F" OI" O^454G5" O>M9,c`MN4" /?)" O+j45(C" 0:

&�A�'W

4$?,E7UVW$G&D$X7Y0!"=

4?,?,$Z*.N"[($\N"A($+)$]LUBY$E^"3._`$aN"b($@N$Z*.N"[(

$]LUBY$c`0d$aN"b($@N

5G45"G4(`"('R"�?6%"/0l?'5"A5"&9T"P'4"(N"A5"G5"�

W*:0l?'5"�R#\"4G"84(I0u^"A"80T0UFG4"<GA0-V"O>

"G#2>" O,N#F" 50,I4" (1'5" <4(I" R0N?-634#F" *+,-.

*^?345"W

L6 MA((:N:M-/9-/O6 /9A.9.D8:F-G.3P6 E+8/Q: 4H)39:I/)?1(.(R6 !+-((: 4H)39:I/)?1(.(

www.SID.ir

Page 3: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

D.(*$%"E#%;F8G$;H3$I:=&J3(73$K#(),L*$II%&'()*$'$4,M$!(3N&(EOI$/&(PQR$I$S(56?(.TUVT

V

;W<GA0-V" O>" *:0l?'5^" A"80T0UFG4" <0:"4G" 84(I0u

*^" ?q#^"*+,-."YuI"OI02^" [AG"P'4" R4" A" ?N0-)

/R#\"(1'5"(s3"G5"*+,-."<0:*^5(9l"W

4?,?46`0d$ `*$ Ee<)$ E_"Hd$)"f_*$ \N"A($ +)$ g[LB($ %"=

$]LN"W+$+*`"N$h_*.I

/R#\"�0u+34"*13#1|"�'(2F"OI"?,I"P'4M'#qA4"<0:"A"G45

*^"D4('4"84(I0u^"M,-."G5"MqA5"Y]3"P99UF"(1309I"A"5R45(C

"(I" 4G"5#j"M'06\"A"�#h3"MqA5" [/?-'@"G5"O>"MN4"(^4"P'4

/R#\" R4" <54?,F" <AG"5#j" �u+-^" A" M'#qA4" 5G#^" <0:

*^"K06%4*^"<R0N54R@" G4R0I" O>"D@" 0'"?->/R#\"A" 5#)"<0:

*^"P99,F"G4R0I"R093"dI0c^"M'#qA4"<4G45?3#)& �'W

4$?4]iR_<<$"=E_)<&2(Q=<RS$%"=

R4*lB'A" O76X" P'4" <0:[Oq0]^/?-'@" O,N#F"<GA0-V" <G013

"0h^0C"x(T"G5"80T0UFG4MN4M6J`"G5"O>"�9F(F"P'?I"*'0:

R4"d9]LF"R4O2]3"A"/�A(C"80%�T4"<0:#'G0-N"*+j0-)"<0:

O2]3" A" /?)" /50h+N4" 0h^0C" x(T" 80T0UFG4" <GA0-V"D@" <0:

O]7\A"a96SFO+V(l"(s3"G5"0E3@"<4(I"G#jR0I"<0:"MN4"/?)

?-)0I"O+)45"a97LF"M97I0`"0FW

"G0E|"K?^" G5" ('eC" D0S^4"<0'#C" #'G0-N" G0E|" Oq0]^"P'4" G5

"*q#7N"#$"fAG"R4"/50h+N4"0I"vwN"MN4"/?)"/545"�JI

/?)"O+j45(C"#'G0-N"t'"a97LF"OI"p+J9N"*'0'#C[#'G0-N<

O9U)" OT#I(^" G5" #'G0-N" 4mX4" <G4el(9n0F" A" /?)" <R0Ny

"&7+u^"Mq0\i(3"R4"/50h+N4"0I"G4(`"*NG(I"5G#^"p9J3A"G4mV4

MN4" O+V(lWvwN#'G0-N" ON" a97LF<"M'0E3" G5" A" (1'5

"K#>#^"*F@"80]9]LF"OI"p:"0I"#'G0-N"G0E|"OJ'0]^"A"�9>(F

MN4" /?)" W*^" /?-'@" G5"D0]]L^" O>"MN4" (>�" OI" iRH"?-34#F

"?^"4G"<(+29I"�I4AG"A"4mX4A"/545"O,N#F"4G"0:#'G0-N"R(^"(s3

?-:5"G4(`W

4$?O"=0_+"B3$%"j#$ _.T!

i?%" A5" QT0]F" R4"�R#\" G5" /?)" &'(,F" <?97>" M9,c`

*^"?9q#F"#'G0-N"G0E|" [84(I0u^"aS)"G5"O>" 5#) "G45#63

"*7%"!MN4" /?)"/545"Y'063" 0:#'G0-N"P'4"*q#7,^" W"Q`4A"G5

i?%"OI"OX#F"0I"*'#'G0-N"<0$V"(:"G5M9,c`"OI"<?97>"<0:

<4mX4"&9.#F"G5"O>" /?)"O+j45(C" 0E3@"P9I"�I4AGA"#'G0-N

<#'G0-N" &9.#F" OI" O^454 "M9,c`" i?%" (9n0F" MLF" O>

/R#\" R4" M'06\A" Mj0N('R" O,N#F"*F0^?jA" *+,-." <0:

"�0jMN4p+J9N" *'0'#C" K?^R4" /50h+N4" 0I" D@" a97LF" A

*^" O+j45(C5#)W"80]9]LF" OI" 0:#'G0-N" ('0N"a97LF" A"�JI

*^"K#>#^"*F@5(lA"5*7%"G45#63"Or4G4"OI"0=-'4"G5 "*q#7,^

"809I(=FA" A"809I54" O,q0c^" R4" /50h+N4" 0I" O>" 0:#'G0-N" ('0N

*^" 0h+>4"MN4" /?)"�4(u+N4" 0:G#2>" (1'55#)&�" A �"!

'W

"<#'G0-N"*7.4"<4mX4 "OI"M9,c`"i?%"?,I"A5"OI"OX#F"0I

"KA?X"x() *^?)0IW

4?O?,$%0_+"B3$ _.T!,$>$@N$Z*.N"[($]LUBY$E^"3._`$aN"b(

6`0d$`*$E_"Hd$<g[LB($%"=

"f(+Jl"(I"[84(I0u^"�R#\"G5"MqA5"MN09N"Mq0\"P'4"G5

OSU)"*7.4"GA0I"A"MN4"/?)"m>(6+^"*F4(I0u^"80^?j"A"0:

O,N#F"*F4(I0u^"Mj0N('R"O>"MN4"D@"(I*^"O+V0'"(1'5"?34#F

/R#\?2uI"0]FG4"4G"*+,-."<0:"WN5"R4"[GA0I"P'4"�0N4"(I"M

"OI"[*F0%�T4"A"*F0T0UFG4"G0+j0N('R"OI"*I09+N5"G5"D0^R"D545

M.(V"D545"MN5"R4"<0-,^"G#2>"Q'0-."(1'5"O>"MN4"*'0:

OI*^"MN5" R4" O,N#F"�N0-^"Mj0N('R" P+)4?3" a9q5?-:5"W

*63"O>"5G45"M96:4"/R4?34"D@"0F"Oq0J^"P'4"*+\"4G"D0^R"D4#F

"�?-->?9q#F"OI"D0^R"D545"<0EI"OI84m9E=F"?9q#F"<4(I"*7j45

!E545"MN5"R4" W"5#XA"OI"*^#6%"GA0I"P'4"#'G0-N"P'4"G5

b?:"*7.4"M,h-^" O>"MN4" /?^@"O3" [G#2>" G5" /?)"<G4el

"[*F4(I0u^"A"*F0T0UFG4"84m9E=F"fA(V"A"?9q#F"R4"5#N"�J>

"*F4(I0u^"84m9E=F"<(9lG0>" OI"�0N4(I"M,h-^"�J>" OS7I

MN4" G#2>" M,-." a>" G5" W5G4A"0I" *F4(I0u^" 84m9E=F" 84

<GA0-V"P'(F?'?X?)"?:4#j"�X#^"0935"RAG"<0:"D4('4"O>

<GA0-V" R4" /50h+N4"A"*F4(I0u^"Mj0N('R"G5"b0S)" [#3"<0:

/?6%?)0I" O+)4?3" *30EX" �cN" 0I" <4" W"O>" K06+\4" P'4

/01-IOr4G4"<0:OI"*F0T0UFG4"80^?j" �?-:5"G5"Y345" 5#U3"a9q5

|"A"/?-'@"8H#LF"�#�j<GA0-V"(6%�j("QV0-^"�'0C(I"A"0:

O'0^(N" OI" [Gel5AR/R#\"G5"<G4el"?-->" i4?`4"�N0-^03"<0:

www.SID.ir

Page 4: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!"#$%&'()*$+,#(-.$/")01$%2(345673$+0(089$:;<0'&$2=$/:(>53=$(?$@(A(B.&=

CW

#N"t'" R4AA"M9V(�" 50='4" OI" R093"P9-�6:"G5"<?-634#F

/R#\MI0`G" M97I0`" O>" *'0:/01-I" <4(I" *'H0I" <('eC"<0:

M'#qA4"[(1'5"<#N"R4"[?3G45"*30EX"�.(%"G5"G#2>"<G4el

G#+N5"G5"4G"/545"G4(`"MqA5"G0>AM'#qA4"P'4"O+Uq4"G5"<G4el

v'A(N"A"80^?j"�R#\"P'4"R4"A"5#I"?:4#j"*+j0N('R"<0:

/01-I"[AG"50='4"G#2>"G5"O-9^R"P'4"G5"*cN#+^"A"t|#>"<0:

?)"?:4#jW

"?-+V0'"O,N#F"(+29I"809rmX"0I"0:#'G0-N"O>"*^01-:"K0\(:"OI

"*7.4"80%#z#^" 5(>"{u2^"*%#3" OI"?'0IAM'#qA4"<0:

(:"G5"/?)"*'0N0-)t'*^"(s3"OI"G#c|"0:#'G0-N"R4"�?NG

�9N@" O|<('eC"i4?>" o?34" (99kF" OS-'4A" 5G45" 5#XA" *'0:

"R4" /50h+N4" 0I" O>" 5G45" O%#6=^" a>" <AG" *lGmI" (9n0F" (9k+^

*^"p+J9N"*'0'#C"5(S'AGMV0'"MN5"g'0+3"P'4"OI"D4#F& �'W

$\8I,$kZ*.N"[($c`0d$%"=0_+"B3$%"j#

*+,-."/R#\"OI0�^"OI"84(I0u^ "Mj0N"('R"OI0�^"OI"84(I0u^*+,-.

/R#\"R4"M'06\�0j"*+,-."<0:

STUV:TW:XYZ[:X\]^V_`abc:d]e

fg]hc:fg:iWjg]`ckalbm:STUV

nUobc:fg:dnWpq:f\]cjrkstW[:iWuvYUw:flrUw

S]xbg:djvq:yz{|n}g:d]e

jg:]e:S]xbg:}~j^wuvYUw

kalbm:dnWpq:X\UYZW

iWuvYUw:TW:X\]^VkstW[

�U�V:�]o�:[U���gdjz�:XvzY]c

k�n]t:d]e:S]xbg:]g:dn]z e��W[:�]�a�W:nUobc:fg

dnWpq:f\]cjr:�p�k�n]t

iWjg]`c:Xlbm:u{n

iW[nWZ:X\[Zu�c [ZnZ:dWjg:d}\n:fc]�jgk�]��:d]enWT]g:fg

��

��

fg]hc:fg:iWjg]`ckalbm:STUV

�`g:inu�:�\W}�WkmU�t

dT]r:kmU�tiWjg]`c:Xlbm

[WT�:nWT]g:[]�a�W

uvYUw:jg:}~j^wkag]�n:d]��:[]�\W

nU�~:n[

iWuvYUw:TW:X\]^VkstW[ �U�V:�]o�:[U��g

djz�:XvzY]c

yv��w:Z:ka\]^V:���XYZ[:djq

S]xbg:dub^�WUw:�\W}�WkstW[:d]e

d]e:S]xbg:]g:dn]z^e�]�a�W:nUobc:fg:k�n]t

kb�:��W[

� �

Xt]r:j\T:flrUwkwWjg]`c:d]e

XYZ[:���:�e]~

d]enUwWj�W:nU�Vk�n]t

]g:u\u�:d]en]~:Z:_�~:[]�\Wi]cut:f�WnW:jg:}~j^w

kwWjg]`cub�:d]e:S]xbg:nU�VnU�~:n[:kavsc

�`g:nU�V:�\W}�WkmU�t �j�:Xlbm:Xv^eW:�\W}�W

i]���W:dnZ]b�:Z:nW}�W

iW[nWZ:�\W}�W

nWT]g:d]��:[]�\Wkag]�n

uvYUw:�vl�wkstW[:�]qubb~

n[:dnWpq:f\]cjriW}v��w:u\jt

[WT�:nWT]g:[]�a�W

���

6

!E iW}v��w:iW[nWZ

!E �]�at]r:j\T

!E iW}v��w

�nZ]b�:iW}v��w:uvYUwi]�]�wnWZ:i]���W

�nZ]b�:iW}v��w:iWn[]mi]�]�wnWZ:i]���W �

6�

"C7

f�[UgZ:�nWpq:f\]cjrjx\[:�]e:�`g

i]���W:�nZ]b�:f�[Ug:y��aYZ[:jv�:�`g:i]�]�wnWZ

jv�:�`g:�nWpq:f\]cjrXt]r:j\T:n[:�aYZ[

j\T:�`g:Xv^eW:X���iW}v��w:uvYUw:fg:Xt]r

��

jv�:�`g:�nWpq:f\]cjriW}v��w:uvYUw:n[:�aYZ[

6

XYZ[:X\] V

��

j\T:fg:�Ugjc:f�[UgXt]r

iW}v��w:uvYUw:f�[Ug

�nZ]b�:f�[Ug:y�XYZ[:i]�]�wnWZ:i]���W

6

*+I0`G"G4R0I"50='4

www.SID.ir

Page 5: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

D.(*$%"E#%;F8G$;H3$I:=&J3(73$K#(),L*$II%&'()*$'$4,M$!(3N&(EOI$/&(PQR$I$S(56?(.TUVT

CT

$F<&l,$k$%0_+"B3$%*ml*$X_.U!,

K*0BDEI"no*$F&($+)$.7pL($G"o?K"_.l

q.I

Mj0N('R"O,N#F0: !E: /�+):;9+A39A+8(

"YuI"G5"5#X#^"Mj0N('R"D4m9^"(9k+^"P'4 !E*^"D023"4G?:5"W"D@"Y=-N"?\4A/(EI"54(V4"?.G5MN4"O,^0X"G5"Mj0N('R"R4"?-^"W"O+)el"?3AG"D5GA@"MN5"OI"<4(I

Mj0N('R"[Mj0N('R"O,N#3"G5"M3(+-'4"A"*�u)"(F#9w^0>"[/4(6:"Ph7F"[Ph7F"<0:/?)"O+V(l"(s3?34W

"/R#\"G5"84G50. !E !E: ¡H-+9

!"#$%&' !"()*+ ,"#$- !".- ,*/0 "( (1/2 3" 4(*5 6789) : ;<" =&>? @"A7B?" C8D C)*EF?" .G1H I3(" 8J"K 3" ("8L- :67 A$MF- ;<" B%N @(*$O- ,"1>P

6LQ>- @*9("3*7 () (1/2 (1RJ .7*<3("B?" C8D S*TF0" .0*%N K @":

C31J () !")("K !" !"# $%&'( !"#$%&' !")("K ,"#$- !".- ,*/0 "( (1/2 4(*5 3"89) : ;<" =&>? @"A7

B?" C8D C)*EF?" .G1H I3(" 8J"K 3" ("8L-:

!"#$%&' 8$G1' !" !"#)'&*+,(-&. !"#$%&' 8$G1' ,"#$- A$MF- ;<" !".- ,*/0 "( (1/2 U5") ()89) : =&>? @"A7

C8D C)*EF?" .G1H I3(" 8J"K 3" ("8L- ;<"B?":

=T7 C)K#V" I3(" !" !"#/01+2#3**2*

("8L- ;$$O' @"A745)=T7 C)K#V" I3(" WXN IK( 3" Y8- ;<" () C)*EF?" *9B?" C8D :B?" !"A7*T- 67 Z17A- [F\$? ,1] *&><" () =T7 K) 67 C)K#V" I3("

=T7 A<*? K !"A7*T- =T7 C)K#V" I3("B?" C8D ^$_E' *9 :

A<*? C)K#V" I3("=T7*96(72'# )0'(# /01+23**2*

=T7 () 60`*? C)K#V" I3(" C8>9) ,*/0 A$a @*9 !"B?":

45)45)67 62 B?" .b5") cG*5*0 8$G1' (1/2 @)*dFe" 8D( .7*<3(" B%N @(*$O- ,"1>P

B?" C8D C)*EF?" Y8- (): () .+1d5 =T7 6<*-A?

!"8&.#4&9# !" .92:($2.(

6<*-A? U2 C31J () .+1d5 =T7 @("fg !".- ,*/0 "(89):

() .+1d5 =T7 6<*-A?B5*?A<3

.;'0#<('+,(+'2#8&.4&92'.$2.(01 .92:($2.(

6<*-A? 3" .FX\e C8>9) ,*/0 B5*?A<3 C31J () 62 B?" .+1d5 =T7 @("fghA+.-)1D:

() .+1d5 =T7 6<*-A?!"#$%&'

=>+-%#)'&*+,(-&.#8&.4&92'.$2.(01# .92:($

6<*-A? 3" .FX\e C8>9) ,*/0 8$G1' C31J () 62 B?" .+1d5 =T7 @("fg .'"A7*T- !"#$%&'hA+.-)1D:

B<*XJ<+%%&'(,*/0B<*XJ C8>9)i"K 6EGj- K) @"(") 62 B?" .+1d5 =T7 3" BGK) @*9 @*9

B$V*O- K .FGK)B?" .'*$G*- @*9:i"K*9?&0.: A$MF- ;<"i"K ,"#$- C31J () .+1d5 =T7 67 BGK) @*9 !".- ,*/0 "(89):

.'*$G*- B$V*O-"0@ C31J () .'*$G*- B$V*O- kG*l- U2 m1X&- An0*/0 A$MF- ;<" !"B?" Y*? ^< (): 6<*-A? U2 =T7 .+1d5

B5*?A<3 ()"&(01# <84 ,*/0 A$MF- ;<"6<*-A? m1X&- C8>9) C31J () .+1d5 =T7 @("fg K B5*?A<3

B<*XJB?" BX\e ;<" () .FGK) @*9:6<*-A? U2=T7 .+1d5

!"#$%&' ()"&(01#=)84 ,*/0 A$MF- ;<"6<*-A? m1X&- C8>9) !"#$%&' 8$G1' C31J () .+1d5 =T7 @("fg

B<*XJ KB?" BX\e ;<" () .FGK) @*9: () BGK) 6N)17 U2 !""&(01#4&9# !"#A+*B2( C31J () BGK) 60`*? 6N)17 A$MF- ;<" !".- ,*/0 "(89):

6<*-A? B%N BGK) 6N)17C.FGK) @("fg82(#4&9# !"#A+*B2(

i"K A\2 3" A$MF- ;<".- B?) 67 6N)17 3" .FGK) @*9,*/0 K 8<o6N)17 U2 C8>9) @" C31J () BGK) p?1' 62 B?" !"6<*-A?.- @("fg)1D:

.F5*?A<3 6N)17 !" .;'0#<('+,(+'2#A+*B2(.- B5*?A<3 =T7 hA+ 62 B?" BGK) cG*5 6N)17 3" ./T7)1D: () BGK) .'"#$%q' 6N)17

!"=>+-%$2.(# )'&*+,(-&.A+*B2(

.- !"#$%&' =T7 hA+ 62 B?" BGK) cG*5 6N)17 3" ./T7)1D:

=T7 B$X9" Bl\0 =T7 67 B5*?A<3

!"#$%&' .;'0#<('+,(+'2#D0(-&

B<1GK" ,"#$- Bl\0 ;<" =T7 *7 r*$e () "( B5*?A<3 =T7 67 BGK) .9).- cT/- !"#$%&'8>2:

!"#$%&'()*+,'-$.

'!/01234'56)67&'839:;

sU$bq'K 6<#&' @"A7 .DK( [F\$? .<*<1H )A_<K( 6G*\- UJ

K6$lD.- [F\$? @3*?8D*7EtF: @"A7 .DK( ^$>_' ;<"

[F\$? U$bq' K 6<#&'6$lD ^X2 67 C8$u$H Uv*\-K *9 @3*?

67 @A'1$w-*2.- (*XD)K(EtxF 69) () 62tyz{ p?1'

AF?(*Vt C*n/0") ()G "BV*< 6O?1'Et|F67 K AdFT- (1}

HC I&''2:(2'www.SID.ir

Page 6: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!"#$%&'()#*+"',-#.!(/0#$1'234562#*/'/78#9:;/&%#1<#.9'=42<#'>#?'@'A-%<

BC

.- C8D 6G1-AV IK( ^< [F\$? .<*<1H IK( BEg ,"1'

@"#N" U$bq'K 6<#&' @"A7 ~?*>- @"(") 62 B?" .XF\$?

6LbJK .LQ>- @*>7A<3 s.G1bO-K .bP p7"K( (153*7 @*9

8>F\9 :.g�<K ;<" 62 C8D �<AO' B?() 1<(*>? ^<() *9

.- [/] 67)(15EtzF: 3" C)*EF?" @*<"#- ;<" 67 "( )A_<K(

.- A<3 �AD)AXD A7 ,"1'Et�F�

t�Y8- 8><"AV () @)*LF0"K .b$bq' )A_<K( U$G) 673*? ;<" s@

.- [9"AV [F\$? (*F5*? 3" @AF%7 �() 8><"AV8>2:

��Y8- .X2 @*9A$MF- ,)A2 )("K ,*_-" [F\$? .<*<1H @*9

67 "( .E$2K.- [9"AV [F\$? () ,*-#X9 (1}8>2:

K)[F\$? AF%7 [%V @"A7 62 @("#7" C)*EF?" )(1- *<1H @*9

.- ("Ae.- ,*<AN (")1X0K .G1bO-K .bP (")1X0 )A$g8D*7:

'!<5=7>?@$'5>A'.,B7C+

.bP (")1X0 ;$7 .bP p7"K( 62 B?" @(")1X0 .G1bO-

.- ,*/0 .g)*? 67 "( [F\$? @*9A$MF-89) : s("#7" ;<" *7

Y8-C)*? )"AV" .>9� @*9.- �() A')1DEt�F:

*%0o ;$7 p7"K( K [F\$? A7 ("fgA�" @*9AF-"(*H 4"ATF?" @"A7

.bP (")1X0 [?( (1�>- 67 � m1�1- 6>$/$HK !*$7)" 3" .G1bO-

67 6N1' *7 "#N" ;<" ,)17 W0*- K W-*NK B?" C8D C)*EF?"

.- ;$$l' �Lq- p?1' [F\$? C8D ;$$O' 3A-)1D : (")1X0

.bP� U_D () .G1bO-�>? [F\$? ^< @"#N" s "( *<1H .<1<(*

.- A<1d' 67 80(") U7*LF- 6Q7"( An<8_< *7 628/2: @*9A$MF-

YK8N () Y8- () C8D 6FVAg(*2 67t67 .VAO- Z1\l- (1}

B?" C8D:

'! D)6EF'.,B7C+

An<8_< *7 [F\$? ^< @*9A$MF- ;$7 U-*O' C1q0 s(")1X0 ;<"

.- ,*/0 "(.-K 89) Y8- ^< 6O?1' @"A7 .<*>l- 80"1' .X2

8D*7 : C(*l0" i1%E- K) *7 .<*>Do s,*<AN (")1X0 [$?A' ()

B?" @(KA� ,*<ANK:

=9*2 *< =<"#V" *9A$MF- 3" .5A7 ("8L- [F\$? A9 ()

.- *%0o 67 62 87*<JC(*l0" @*9A$MF- @"�CA$5��J.- 6FEg)1D :

*9A$MF- ;<" =9*2 *< =<"#V" �A0J,*<ANJ.- C80"15)1D

EtyF:

,*<AN ()Y1-AV 3" (")1X0 ;<" B5*? .E$2 p7"K( s.X2 @*9

B?" C8D C)*EF?" @)8P W7"1'K : U_D� 67 Z17A- ,*<AN

.- ,*/0 "( 6OG*Q- )(1- .<1<(*>? [F\$?89):

G:H<'I'J76.)94'5=7>?@$'5>A'KL@/

!" KLMNOPQ#KLRSLT

!" UVOWXVY#Z[\

]

!" KLMNOPQ

USTV^_#KLMNOPQ#`NabQKVcVdQSLT#KVefcL

USTV^_#KLMNOPQ#KLSRVgKVcVdQSLT#KVefcL ]

]

C]

45)

]

]

]

hiRbjT#USLkl#h[VmZYZn[R#UVo#pqj

KVefcL#USTV^_#hiRbj#rstWaTR#ZNu#pqj#KVcVdQSLT

ZNu#pqj#USLkl#h[VmZYvXVY#Z[\#SR#tWaTR

Z[\#pqj#vNwoL#vdxyKLMNOPQ#`NabQ#hj#vXVY

]]

ZNu#pqj#USLkl#h[VmZYKLMNOPQ#`NabQ#SR#tWaTR

]

C

vaTR#v[Vwz

]]

Z[\#hj#cbjZm#hiRbjvXVY

KLMNOPQ#`NabQ#hiRbj

USTV^_#hiRbj#rsvaTR#KVcVdQSLT#KVefcL

]

]

]

C

www.SID.ir

Page 7: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

D-')#$!E"$:F7G#:H2#I9<%J2'62#K"'(+L)#II$%&'()#&#3+M# '2N%'EOI#.%'PQR#I#S'45>'-TUVT

BU

G:H 'I.,B7C+'MH)N+, 'J76.)94'D)6EF/

U_D () 62 (1} ,*X9�.- C8<)s)1D !"#$%&' !" ;<"()

*7 ,o ("8L- 62 B?" C(*l0" ^< Y8- K !")("K U�- .'*0*<AN

!`1dq- 8$G1' !".- =<"#V" 67 @An<) ,*<AN *7 K 87*<

!"#$%&' !"()*+ i*0 !".- =9*2i"K K 87*< B$V*O-K *9

67 .'*$G*-,KA7 A$MF- ,"1>PB?" C8D 6FVAg A�0 () "3:

An<) C(*l0" ^<45).- 62 A$MF- ;<" m10 �*qG 67 62 8D*7

.- .OX&'.- =<"#V" C("1X9 8D*787*< : A$MF- ^< B<*XJ

,KA7.- "3 B?) 67 .'*$G*- B$V*O-K i"K WXN3" 62 8D*7

.- Y8- B$OQe i8P @)1XP 8O7 67 6N1' *7 K 8<o4A8

� B<*XJC31J 3" BGK)~TF>- @*9� @*9("#7" We"K () s

.- .'*$G*- B$V*O-K i"K .F<*XJ B?*$? Y*XP"8D*7 : A$MF-

,KA76<*-A? An<) @"3.- .+1d5 =T7 @*98D*7:

6N)1767 .FGK) @*9,KA7 A$MF- ^< ,"1>P 62 B?" An<) @"3

Y8-() B$OQe i8P .LV" 8O7 67 6N1' *74A8� !"A7*T-

67 ^< ,"1>PB5*?A<3 � Bl\0 sB?*$? ;<" Y*XP" ("#7"

.- B5*? A<3 6O?1' 67 6N)17 c$dT'8D*7 :

B?*$? ;<" 3" ^$-"82 Y*XP" 8<) 8<*7 Y*J i"82 A9 62 *9

@K( @AF/$7 A$�*' 8>F\9 B$OQe i8P )*O7" 3" ._<3" A�*F-

45) .g(#7 A$�*' A$MF- i"82 A$$M' �80" *< K �BD") 89"15

[F\$? "#N" U2 @K( K Y8- B\'3" �H 62 �)(")

6$lD BX\e () ,o .&>?(*lFP" !`"1? ;<" 67 Y8- @3*?

8D 89"15 C)") �?*H:

'!ODP'.)N1A,$'KL@'M2;

=<"#V" "( Y8- 67 )*XFP" B$b7*e s,o (*lFP"K Y8- B\'

.-.- `*7 "( ,o ,)17 @)A7(*2 67 )*XFP" K 89))A7 : (*lFP"

@(*FV( (*lFP"A7 Y8- @(*F5*? .0*-3 *%>' K )(") B<1GK" ,o

.- B?" (*lFP" @"(") Y8- (*F5*? 62 "( Y8- (*FV( (*lFP" ,"1'

)") ("Ae .?(A7 )(1-E�{F:

Y8-.- "( [F\$? .<*<1H @*9C)") ^X2 67 ,"1' @*9

WXN67 C8D @(Ko )1N1- !*$7)" 3" C)*EF?" *7K .0"8$- !(1+

K 8$/T7 (*lFP" K )A2 U<8O' .b_D 67 B\' @"A7 "( @("#7"

)") 6O?1' �bFT- @*91<(*>? ,)A2: ;<" 67 .7*$F?) @"A7

.- Y8- 3" ,*>$X}",1-3o 3" ,"1')A2 C)*EF?" A<3 @*9ExF

!O!/56)Q+'LR'D7@SP

BG*J () Y8- .b+" A$MF- 8>] ("8L- s,1-3o ;<" () @*9

A7"A7 () Y8- B$?*\J ,"#$- K C8D C)") A$$M' �bFT- @8J

;<"8<)Ag .?(A7 !"A$$M' :,*/0 �<*F0 .LQ>- (*FV( C8>9)

)17 @8J !`*J () Y8-:

!"KLMNOPQ !" `NabQ !" KLSRVg

v[Vwz

!" vXVY#Z[\

!" KLRSLT]

45) !"{RTM_L#|\SL

pqj

]

hiRbj#?&&}+%~"-$2�

~"-$2�

~"-$2�6)A� #?&&}+%

Vo#�LT

KVNaVm

]

]~"-$2�

Vo#�LT#?&&}+%

KVNaVm?&&}+%

ZNu#pqj#USLkl#h[VmZYKLMNOPQ#`NabQ#SR#tWaTR2.(

KLMNOPQ`NabQ#hiRbj

vXVY#Z[\#hiRbj

]

ZNu#pqj#USLkl#h[VmZYvXVY#Z[\#h�YbQ#SR#tWaTR

tWaTR#ZNu# !" hiRbj

Z[\#pqj#vNwoL#vdxyKLMNOPQ#`NabQ#hj#vXVY

tWaTR#ZNu#pqj# !"USLkl#h[VmZY

]

]

h[VmZY#?&&}+%

vXVYZ[\#pqj#vNwoL#vdxyKLMNOPQ#`NabQ#?&&}+%

hiRbjT#USLkl#h[VmZYVo#pqj#Z[VY

Z[VY#{RTM_L#|\SLVo#pqj

C

~ Z[\#pqj#vNwoL#vdxyKLMNOPQ#`NabQ#hj#vXVY�

]

C

pqj#h[VmZY#rsKLMNOPQ#SR#�gb�X

pqj#h[VmZY#rsvXVYZ[\#SR#�gb�X

]

]

]

]

]]

~ Z[\#pqj#vNwoL#vdxyKLMNOPQ#`NabQ#hj#vXVY�

C

vaTR# !" hiRbj#rs~Vo#�LT�

www.SID.ir

Page 8: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!"#$%&'()#*+"',-#.!(/0#$1'234562#*/'/78#9:;/&%#1<#.9'=42<#'>#?'@'A-%<

BR

67 @*9A$MF- A<)*L- Y*�- ,"1>P 8ID3<"D�!"�D=

D3" 6s"6"3?#46/=D#A�5�="#A�5�="s?638s

"3�s868# 46/=D8# !"# A�5�=" BG*J 3A- *'

W7*' (*FV(K 8D C)") A$$M' @8J45) W7*' 8<)Ag .?(A7

45) C)A2 �EJ "( )15 .LQ>-K @)1O+ BG*J C("1X9

B?"�U_Dx:�

G:HO'I56)Q+'LR'D7@SP'.)1T.'54.EU$ !"

KAn<) hA} 3" @*9A$MF- A<)*L- 8ID3<"D�!"�D=

D3" 6s"6"3?#46/=D#A�54="#A�54="s?638s

"3�s868#46/=D8# !"#A�54=" @8J BG*J 3A- *'

W7*' (*FV(K 8D C)") A$$M' !" =�� )G=8" .?(A7

W7*' 8<)Ag !"# =�� )G=8"<K .GK#0 BG*J C("1X9

B?" C)A2 �EJ "( )15 .LQ>-�U_D|:�

G:HV'I.)1T.'54.EU'$'56)Q+LR'D7@SP#$%&'()#"*'+%

!O!<D7@SPKL@'J,WF,'5XYU'J)#

Y8- A<3 67 Y8-s ,1-3o ;<" ()C)*? @*9 �w? sC8D [$\L' A'

B\' .EbFT- @*9�6bXN 3"B\'.<*%0 8J @*9 � @K(

Y8- A<3 3" ^<A9Y8- A<3 *F<*%0 s6FVAg i*&0" *9 Y8- () *9

B?" C8D C)") ("Ae .<*%0:

!O! K$LF'J.)ZS)4'D7@SPJBLA'J)#

6P1X&- [9 @K(A7 *9A$MF- 3" .5A7 A�" .?(A7 @"A7 3" @"

8<o .- B?) 67 ,*gAl5 A�0 �l} 62 @)8P YK"8N *< W7"1'

*EF?" )(1-s.- ("Ae C))A$g : A<)*L- 8<*7 @(*g3*? ,1-3o ()

62 .'(1+ () K )") ("Ae .?(A7 )(1- "( @)8P YK"8N ;<"

.- Y8- .LQ>- A$a (*FV( �P*7 62 801D C8<) @A<)*L- 801D

67C)") ,"1>PC)") ;$73" !AH @*9 (*2 ;<" 62 80)Ag hfJ *9

BVAg i*&0" Y8- @K( #$0:

'!V[3NHKL@'JS)4

!"#$!%&' (')*+& ," ,-*./ 0"'1( 2' 345 67 ,8 9!7:-

;5 9*<8' #=' ;7*7(!<= >?@A= 67 B'C-' D':AAE.:F' 9'*.

>?@A= B'C-' :G7) :" '( >?@A= HI?J5 B'C-'2' 67:K

):8 ,LM!N5 O,A%$ B':" :AF!. ;=(:" 1 345 B2!=

0P;Q5," !7 #7:745 HI?J5 B!K B!K:AE?5 () :AAE. ;.(!%R

91:" '2S:& 2' >?@A= :">A@&1 ('CT'U#=' V4$ ,?T:W 6+8 O

,A%$ B':" ,?%M',5!&:" B2!=S:& XB:.*AY5!8 B!K B!K('CT'

;5 >A@&1 !Z&[ \7:?Z" ,8 #=' V4$ ,]'(' B)4L?54$!"O ()

() *7(!<= >?@A= (!?T( X,5')'^ ,LM!N5 )(*5 \_+5 #AL`1

#=' ,?T:W (':a O;5 bcd5 :K ,?%M' :7!= 4&'*.#AL`1 B!K

4<8 ;=(:" CA& '( \_+5O

!"#$%&'(!)*&+,-.!/01&2345& 5,6& 7,8&93&:;1&+<,=

2$.5><

,A%$ 2' ef B!K:AE?5 94&!5 #"!F g:T !" X345 B2!=

91:"4$ ,LM!N5 345 X'2 O )(*5 h(!?T( ,8 B:AE?5 \AM1'

;5 (':a ,-*. ):AW !";5 i_$ () ,84$!"j V)') 9!Q&

#=' V4$O

!"#$%&'()& !"*+,-$ ./01$,2234$*+5-/6

#$ %&'()*www.SID.ir

Page 9: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!"#$%&'(%)*+,$)-.$/0123."4.$5("678#$//%29"6#$9$:7;$<".=2"'>/$?2"@AB$/$C"DEF"!GHIG

JK

;5 V47) ,8 (*k 9!+K ," l1:$ :mn 9!52 2' (')*+& \7' )*$

#=' o7'CT' ,"1( ;7!+& 4&1( 67 !"1 V):8 o7'CT'O

D'CAZp. ,?T:W (':a :q& 45 9[ (!?T( ,8 B4L" :AE?5

;5 ;.':"!J5;5 ;M1C& 4&1( B'(') ,8 4$!" i_$ () ,8 4$!"

r 9!Q&#=' V4$ V)')O

!"7$%&'()&#$%&'()#"*'+%*+,-$ ./01$,2234$*+5-/6

,L=*. ,?T:W (':a ;=(:" )(*5 9[ (!?T( ,8 B4L" :AE?5

#P!=:72+,-;5 i_$ () ,8 4$!"s#=' V4$ V)') 9!Q&O

!"8$%&'()&#$%&#+,-.&/%-)$%)-'$ ./01$,2234$*+5-

*+,-/6

9!+K(')*+& B1( 2' ,8 (*k #=' ;7!+& 4&1( #=' tJQ5

S4R )!L"' ," ,-*. !" *7(!<= \7' () ,_<7' ," ,-*. !" ,8

(!?T( \7' >A?@K C8:+?5 #P!=:72 ,L=*. B1( :" #ALNa

;5 :q& ," ;LA%k4=(O

!"#$?&'&;!74@&(5& A,=.B<&CD5& !E->& )FG&93&.!!/@

B47$>&H>I!JK@&9>3L !"#$%&'#()'(#*%+$',-M

#AL`1 ()u ):AG" >A+v. #M1) V4<7[ () ,8 V4$ g:T

D'CAZp. 4AM*. ," #%@& #P!=:72 ," ,-)*" tAvJ.

#7*M1' (')+,- B:?QA" :AF!. #=!A= \7' !7[ 4K) o7'CT' '(

B1( !" ,-)*" #M1) ,_<7' ;<L7 e_R #=!A= !7 )(')

#7*M1' D'CAZp. 4AM*. w:n '( B:?QA" (!?T( 9*<8' x4<8 (')

L`1 B!K:?5'(!f #AU ()u;5 ;=(:" V4$ ,?mW #M!y !. )*$

):AG" oAf #M1) '( #=!A= S'48 )*$ \AAL.o7'CT' !"

," '( B:?QA"#$') 4K'*P 3!%&) O #='( #+= B!K(')*+&

B!K(')*+& 1 #P!=:72 ," ,-)*" tAvJ. #%@& oK!8

#P!=:72 ," ,-)*" tAvJ. #%@& o7'CT' z{ #+=

+,-;5 9!Q& '(4<K)O

() #AL`1 \7' ," |*":5 B!K(')*+&} i_$~� S!+. X

#AL`1 () !K:AE?5 (!?T( ,@7!c5 !. #=' V4$ V)') 9!Q& !K

#AL`14$!" \_+5 HI?J5 B!K O9!+K B1( 2' ,8(*k

oJ" ," :?QA" ,-)*" tAvJ. #=' tJQ5 !K(')*+&

B1( B:?QA" ;IAP :AF!. D'CAZp. 4AM*. ," #%@& #P!=:72

!")(')O

!"#$N& '@O07$3& (P345& 93& .!!/L./.01%2/34% 5.

67829.M

;5 g:T #M!y \7' () '( ,-)*" o7'CT' #=!A= #M1) )*$

B1( :" ,-)*" o7'CT':AF!. \7' D(*n \7' () ):AG" oAf ()

4K'*P D(*n ,{ ," #P!=:72 ,L=*. 1 D'CAZp. 4AM*.

9!+K x)*" i_$ B1( 2' ,8 (*kU� o7'CT' !" #=' tJQ5

,L=*. ,-)*" D'CAZp. 4AM*.1 ,?T!7 o7'CT' #P!=:72

S4R ," ,-*. !" ,8 #=' ,?T!7 oK!8 ,8 *7(!<= \7' #ALNa

;5 #P!=:72 ,L=*. :" C8:+?5 ,A-*. i"!a ,M!@5 \7' 4$!"

:?QA" ;IAP #P!=:72 >Z= ,-)*" o7'CT' !" �a'1 () 1 #='

;5 D'CAZp. 4AM*. 2'4$!"O

& !"#$Q& '& R>$& 93& .!!/@:1/0;<!/@& $& !S,"1& 93& .!

O@,!7,1

B1( :" ('�W:AF!. i5'*R 2' ;_7./""01-X S'1 9'CA5

;5 #M1) 0=*. ;n!v?P'4$!"O ;.!AM!5 #AT!L5 :G7) i5!R

#=' >AK) o7'CT' '( #7!+y :W' ,8} 1 ;.!AM!5 #AT!L5 9'CA5

S'1>AK) o7'CT' '( !K�S4R #+= ," �a'1 () #7!+y #ALNa

V2*y 2' () �J?<5 B!K;5 oAf ;?"!a( ('2!" i"!c5>71(O

:AF!. ,@7!c5 :AAE.ui5!R(*8�5," 9!Q& ,&!W'4- (*k

;5 �a'1 () i_$ () V4$ V)') 9!Q& #M!y ,= :K () ,8 4K)

S'1}2034 � :AF!. ;.!AM!5 #AT!L5 1 #=' �M!� ,cIy

B1( :" (!?T( :" ;&'4<{ !" 1+,-

+4513.-1/,-/16 1+,-7 68/+"964-4K'*J&

#$')O

www.SID.ir

Page 10: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

<&($%29"6#$L7("M!$?&6NO$%P".:DE4.$LN"N+Q$0)RN92$P1$?0"SD.1$"F$T"U"V!21

JW

$ !"9$%&'()& !"+##+#'*+,-$,23(.$&:,2234$,;/$&:$</6#+,-.&/%-)$%)-'&-.%#0=,23(.$>?'@+$>A/B)/%

$ !"CD$%$&'()& !"$+##$+#'*+,-$,23(.$&:$>A/B)/$,;/$&:$</6%0%.1& 02&#$%&3)! '%

www.SID.ir

Page 11: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!"#$%&'(%)*+,$)-.$/0123."4.$5("678#$//%29"6#$9$:7;$<".=2"'>/$?2"@AB$/$C"DEF"!GHIG

JX

\7':5'9!Q&#AT!L5 CA{!& :AF!. V4<K) (!?T( :" ;.!AM!5 B!K

;5 �d" )(*5 B!K:AE?5 9[ :7)!c5 V4$ g:T ,_<7'!" ,8 4$!"

CA{!& 9[ :AF!. 3!y \7' !" 4$!" 3!y 9!52 :"':" 4<{ V4<7[ ()

;?7!+y #=!A= 2' #+@a \7' 47!" #M1) ef #=' V)*"

)*P4<8 #7*c. '( O 1 S'1 D':AAE. #='( #+= B!K(')*+&

9!Q& '( ;.!AM!5 #AT!L5 () :AAE. z{ #+= B!K(')*+&

;5 4<K)}i_$UUO�

& !"#$T&'(B,1.=&93&.!!/@OU4VA&CD5&+9>WX

,7!5:= () o7'CT' o7'CT' ;n*vP oJ" B('�W() !" 1

+':;<7 (=;>?=>;&7 +,-'CAZp. 4AM*. B1( 1 )(') :" () '( D

() CA& ;n*vP oJ" ,8 #=' 9[ #IR )('4& B:AF!.

#=!A= 2' ,-)*" tAvJ.;5 B1:Af #M1) ;I8 B!K 1 4<8

,7!5:= #P!=:72 oJ" B1(;5 B('�W1 4<8 V4+R #+@a

#P!=:72 ,L=*. #+= ," CA& ;n*vP oJ" () ,7!5:=

;5 :72':= )*$}i_$UuO�

i_$UU �(!?T( !" 1++ 1+691:" B!K:AE?5 () o7'CT' :F' () B'22034. 1-3@

www.SID.ir

Page 12: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

<&($%29"6#$L7("M!$?&6NO$%P".:DE4.$LN"N+Q$0)RN92$P1$?0"SD.1$"F$T"U"V!21

JJ

$ !"CE$%&'()& !"$+##$+#'*+,-$<'?,23(.$&:$>A/B)/$,;/$&:$</6+0+&#$%&#+2'/%*'+%

F$G#HA'I.$JK@$LA'(MN'?

9!+K i_$ () ,8 (*kU� :AF!. \7:?QA" #=' V4$ V)') 9!Q&

B1( :" !" oJ" ,-)*"1 !K S'1 '(+,- ;<L7 \7' 4&(')

S4R �!=' :" ':72 X*7(!<= )!L"' !" �!%N&'#ALNa H7:L. B!K

*7(!<= V4$}V2*y 2' #7!+y 1 #P!=:72 ,L=*. B!K

�J?<5 �#7!+y ;?M1) B!K}S'1!K � (!A@" *7(!<= \7' ()

;5 ('�W:AF!.4$!" 4&'*.O

$ !"CF$%O/,2234 !"PQ'R$&:SK(T.$<'?

() ,8 (*k 9!+K i_$U� ;?7!+y oc& #=' tJQ5

#P!=:72 ,L=*. () #M1);5 ('�W:F' (!A@" !K4$!"O

$ !"CU$%$O/,2234#$%&#+,./%-)$%)-'/PQ'R$&:$<'?

SK(T.

i_$ ()U^CA&#=' tJQ5,8 o7'CT' B':" ;?=!A= �AK

*7(!<= \7' () ,8 #=' 9[ #IR #=' V)*%& 45'(!8 D'CAZp.

S4R ," ,-*. !"#ALNa !K} ;?7!+y oc& 1 #P!=:72 ,L=*.

#M1) � 4AM*. i"!c5 () #P!= :72 ,L=*. B1( :" C8:+.

#=' D'CAZp.O

$ !"CV$%O/,2234#$%&'()#"*'+%PQ'R$&:SK(T.$<'?

A

www.SID.ir

Page 13: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!"#$%&'(%)*+,$)-.$/0123."4.$5("678#$//%29"6#$9$:7;$<".=2"'>/$?2"@AB$/$C"DEF"!GHIG

JI

S4R �a'1 ()Na#AL *7(!<= :K () ,?T:W (':a :q& 45 B!K

V:AG?=) 4<&!5;M:?<8 B!K#=!A= !7 19�8 B!K i+R

;5;+& V2!-' ,8 4<<8#=!A= ,8 4<K) V4$ ,?T:W (!8 ," B!K

#=!A= ;<L7 4<$!" 2!=(!8 !Z&[ V)14d5 2' �(!P:G7) ," B!K

�(!P ,8 4<?@K 45'(!8 ;7!- !. *7(!<= :K () V4$ ,?T:W (!8

S4R 3:?<8 V2*y 2'#ALNa4<$!%& !K O

UGNW2(M$<,2X

67 B'C-' \A" 0"'1( 2' !7*f 345 67 4$ ;L= ,M!c5 \7' ()

2'*7(!<=�)*-*5 B*7(!<=V2*y()+,-)*$ ,]'(' O h1(

6A<_. �!=' :" bAcd. \7' () ,?T( (!8 ," ;@7*&*7(!<=

B4S4R :" ;<?%5 ,8#ALNa;5 X#=' B4AI8 B!K4$!" O ef

>?@A= ;7!7*f ):_71( 2' V)!m?=' !" ,8 *7(!<= 345 ,AZ. 2'

,A%$ >A@&1 ('CT' S:& 0=*. 1 47):W ,AZ. B:.*AY5!8 B2!=

() 345 X4$^#T:W (':a ;=(:" )(*5 HI?J5 #AL`1O

#AL`1 ()U91:" B!K:AE?5 :AAE. 914" #AL`1 X'2u :AAE.

4AM*. ," #P!=:72 oJ" #A+K' #%@& () XD'CAZp.

#AL`1� #AL`1 X;?M1) ,-)*" () :AAE.� () :AAE.

S'1 oJ" ," V4$ V)') tAvJ. B!K+,- #AT!L5 () :AAE. 1

#AL`11 ;.!AM!5^:AAE.(),7!5:= ;n*vP oJ" B('�W

;54$!"$ Y,A%$ ," ,-*. !"B2!= 345 \7' () ,?T:W S!p&' B!K

;5B*7(!<= )(*5 () :72 �7!?& ," 9'*.U 345 B4 V(!$'

):8�

UO V2*y ," ,-)*" tAvJ. () #M1)+,-;5 4&'*.u

):AG" oAf () '( D1!m?5 �5!8 #=!A= � C8:+.

!" ,8 XD'CAZp. 4AM*. !71 #P!=:72 ,L=*. B1(

#A=!@y iAId. ," ,-*. V4$ S!p&' B!K tAvJ.

4AM*. ," #%@& #P!=:72 oJ" ," :?QA" ,-)*"

4$( B1( B:?QA" ;IAP :AF!. D'CAZp. !" )(')

}i_$~O�

uO#A=!@y iAId. 1 *7(!<= \7' !" b"!N5 S!p&' B!K

V4$ #P!=:72 ,L=*. X#M1) ,-)*" o7'CT' !" X

!" ,8 #=' ,?T!7 oK!8 D'CAZp. 4AM*. 1 o7'CT'

S4R ," ,-*.*7(!<= \7' #ALNa :" C8:+?5 ,8

;5 #P!=:72 ,L=*. ,A-*. i"!a ,M!@5 \7' 4$!"

#P!=:72 >Z= ,-)*" o7'CT' !" �a'1 ()1 #='

;5 4$( D'CAZp. 4AM*. 2' :?QA" ;IAP 4<8

}i_$U�O�

�O V2*y 2' #7!+y #=!A= :W'+,- >AK) o7'CT' '(

S'1 1 ;.!AM!5 #AT!L5 9'CA5 ;<L7 >AK) o7'CT' '( !K

+y #+= ," �a'1 ()V2*y 2' #7! () �J?<5 B!K

\7' :AAE. :AF!. ,@7!c5 >71:" oAf ;?"!a( ('2!" i"!c5

u," i5!R;5 9!Q& ,&!W'4- (*k �a'1 () ,8 4K)

S'1}2034 � ;.!AM!5 #AT!L5 1 #=' �M!� ,cIy

B1( :" (!?T( :" ;&'4<{ :AF!. !" 1C++D7 +,-

+4513.-1/,-/16 1+,-7 68/+"964-C+6D

#$')4K'*J&9!Q& \7' ,8 CA{!& :AF!. V4<K)

#AT!L5 �d" )(*5 B!K:AE?5 (!?T( :" ;.!AM!5 B!K

;5 V4<7[ () 9[ :7)!c5 V4$ g:T ,_<7'!" ,8 4$!"

CA{!& 9[ :AF!. 3!y \7' !" 4$!" 3!y 9!52 :"':" 4<{

#=!A= 2' #+@a \7' 47!" #M1) ef #=' V)*"

4<8 #7*c. '( )*P ;?7!+y}i_$UUO�

�O o7'CT',7!5:=() o7'CT' ;n*vP oJ" B('�W

!" 1+,-7 +4513.-1/,-/16. :" () '(

1 )('):AF!. D'CAZp. 4AM*. B1( )('4& ;&'4<{

tAvJ. () CA& ;n*vP oJ" ,8 #=' 9[ #IR

#=!A= 2' ,-)*";5 B1:Af #M1) ;I8 B!K 1 4<8

,7!5:= #P!=:72 oJ" B1(;5 B('�W1 4<8

vP oJ" () ,7!5:= V4+R #+@a ," CA& ;n*

;5 :72':= #P!=:72 ,L=*. #+=)*$E

^O9!+K i_$ () ,8 (*kU^ �AK #=' tJQ5

D'CAZp. 9'CA5 o7'CT' B':" ;?=!A= ;.':"!J5

#=' V)*%& 45'(!8O *7(!<= \7' () ,8 #=' 9[ #IR

S4R ," ,-*. !"#ALNa !K} oc&1 #P!=:72 ,L=*.

#M1) ;?7!+y � #P!=:72 ,L=*. B1( :" C8:+.

c5 ()#=' D'CAZp. 4AM*. i"!O

S4R �a'1 ()#ALNa *7(!<= :K () ,?T:W (':a :q& 45 B!K

V:AG?=) 4<&!5 ;M:?<8 B!K#=!A= !719�8 B!K;5 i+R 4<<8

www.SID.ir

Page 14: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

<&($%29"6#$L7("M!$?&6NO$%P".:DE4.$LN"N+Q$0)RN92$P1$?0"SD.1$"F$T"U"V!21

IY

;+& V2!-' ,8#=!A= ,8 4<K)," B!K:G7) V4$ ,?T:W (!8

#=!A= ;<L7 4<$!" 2!=(!8 !Z&[ V)14d5 2' �(!P (!8 ," B!K

:K () V4$ ,?T:W 2' �(!P ,8 4<?@K 45'(!8 ;7!- !. *7(!<=

S4R 3:?<8 V2*y#ALNa \7' () ,_<7' ," ,-*. !" 1 4<$!%& !K

;5 #P!=:72 ,L=*. B1( C8:+. *7(!<=#=!A= 4$!" B!K

," 4&4$ 45'(!8!& D'CAZp. 4AM*. #Z- () V4$ ,?T:W (!8

} i_$U^O�

.Z-'[-454647849

F#G B<;H<(IJEI7 KLLKI ! "#$% &!'($)* +% ! "#$)* !!"#$%&'()"!*+,-' ).'/)*+%0'$,$*01+1'+,'&,)2*!"-!' ).1314$+,$#*!' "!5!*)/(!,46$,' +,1+-74' +,' 4)' 47!!,%0%*)/!"+$' ) ' *+ !' 13//).4' 1014!(1 ! "#$%&'()*+,-.,/01 $2+--!()*+,-.345

!"# $%&'#()*# $+,-./# )# ,01'# $23456789:# $ !"#$% &'%()*+,% -./01%*2

'34';',<=#$>-?6#@-5AB#CD,1#$E

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

9"# $*?FD#23GH#IJ50J#K5L0LM=# CD,17899# $-./01%()5*/6% ()*+,

7'30'%)8%9*:;<'7NONE

P"5-5Q# $2GH$#$21',<R# $.3M1.0J#$2-5ST5ST# $5U*.03V#$5D,W#;'*X',R

X'C<R# $265YGJ# $>ZM1[53D.0J# $;50\5ST# )$789]# $`# 5^15Q7NON#_

`+*5`6#a.A-b#,0Z1#*X#c5d#>0eZf6`#$=6*>?)%@$*/AB6#$N7gB#$#E79#h

7N#E

7O"2G06X?iZ1# $$#$.3M1# $;50S0ST# $j)*?D# $2L-.B# $>ZV# $2k5d*X

.-,l#$c',30D#)#.0iJ#$506,e6mD$789!#$`#+n=',eJ'#(,T#K5i&5Y1#%Bmo

*?FD# 2eiAB# %iJ?=`AB# a5`F6'X# $#)# I-,-.1# a.pF6'X# $q-,W# 2ei

X5re/'E

6==8 a@4+-2/ ! M5 ! OPP7 =+.!*!11' ;).!1+-74' :%!,$.+)1) '47!'>)#+*!'=).*"'+,'?@AB !;2./!<,+3K!b!%2/-56=O8 #G%F$( ! OPP= ! Q:.3! %3S3/:.! F3J./2+20K9243-,0.:V !;@N@/56=78 #G%F$( ! OPPL ! Q:.3! $,0.:.! F3J./2+20K9243-,0.:V !;@N@/56=H8 92443-:34 ;5<5 =>?= C,"314.+$*' "0,$(+%1 #3Tc24Z ;2./!<,+3K!b %2/-56=L8 D+3--, %5 ! OPP7 ! QY3-,0/,/0! 3B)J@:,2/@+! -)NN24:,/! -K-:3A! BK/@A,J- d*@-3B! ,/:34@J:,S3! +3@4/,/03/S,42/A3/:-V 1+(3*$4+),'D' -$(+,- ! 7=WOX ! NN5! =I^1=>?56=?8 M343/B- ! (5! @/B! D5e5\5 ! [2AA3 ! =>>> Q-,A)+@:,2/!@-!@!43-3@4J.!:22+!,/!A@/@03A3/:!-:)B,3-V E3.)/!$,'>$,$-!(!,4'F)3.,$* !=I !NN5!LI?1L^756=I8 M4)JZA@/ ! e5 ! OPP= ! Qe+2*@+! A2B3+,/0V ;343.!1 !77 !NN5!=71OP56=^8 %:34A@/ !;5Y5 !OPPP G31+,!11'"0,$(+%1H' 1014!(147+,&+,-' $,"' ()"!*+,-' ).' $' %)(/*!I' 2).*" ! #3Tc24Z CJe4@T1],++56=>8 a,4ZT22B ! &5<5 ! =>>^ ! Q%K-:3A! YK/@A,J-C3:.2B-E! Df),JZ! ,/:42B)J:,2/V ! J2++303! 2R! *)-,/3-- D4,g2/!%:@:3!"/,S34-,:K56OP8 %.,! F5!@/B!e,++ ![5 !OPPL !QY3S3+2N,/0!3RR3J:,S3N2+,J,3-!R24!:.3!-)-:@,/@*+3 B3S3+2NA3/:!2R!!3J2+20,J@+@04,J)+:)43! ,/! J.,/@! E:.3! J@-3! -:)BK! 2R! h,/-.@/! J2)/:KT,:.! @! -K-:3A-! BK/@A,J-! A2B3+V E%)*)-+%$*E%),)(+%1 !O=WL7X !NN5!OO71OH?5

www.SID.ir

Page 15: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

!

!"#$% &'#() *#+,-.'

/+01 2%#,034 5*'6#,4 6 701 89#:9 /;-6<=%&5L1#s5t#%R#u-53=#K*?B#*X#%R#IJ'#.A3Fk'?o#%15AGrl#>-'#*X

.A-51,l#%v?=#u-w#K5p6_7#hKx5L12=5L0LM=#%&5L1#upW#%R#.-5R#u0B'W'4,0,/@+ D4:,J+3X

#[5V#*X#5-#a.F6#s5t#2v*5o#5-#2Go'X#23GH#Kmy1#*X#zmS/#)#aX?R.W5S6#2J*,R#E.W#.k'?f6#%el,-{Q#2y-),=#5-#+*),1#Kx5L1E

!h;5R|# %R# Kx5L15-# 2J*5l# +5k21# %el,-{Q# 2Z0G`6'.6?W#EIJ'#+*),U#;5R|#)X#,k#%R#a.0pt#[5J*'E

8hX?R#.k'?o#2p06),ep&'#upW#%R# z5=*),U#Kx5L1#[5J*'#E#+',R#I-,-.1# 2p06),ep&'# %6515J# }-,T# |'# '*# X?o# u-5l# *?~A1# >-'#*?FD# 23GH# IJ50J# K5L0LM=# CD,1# I-5J# *X# Kmy1

TTT5/4,-N5@J5,4i;%F(R# 5-# )# .0-536# [5J*'#2p06),ep&'# IZQ# %h-:Nj/4,-N5@J5,4.0eJ,^RE

Nh#2651|5J#I0i/?1# )#;5d.AZ-?6# 5-# a.AZ-?6#215J'#}0/X# ,DwIJ'#+*),U#;56b#2p06),ep&'#j*Xb#a',3k#%RE

:ha|?V|'#.A=*5SH#%15AGrl#I0&5il#+5k#_hc5~6;51|5J#)#+*)b?6#+5k�+*)5Al#)#�GH#2kX#h�GH#uR5Le1#K',0��=+*)5Al)5R$%i15v��mo'#)#�Ak,lh#�>06'?/#)#�?LV#5R#+*)5Al#)#�GH#uR5Le1#K',0��=h�6'X#I-,-.12G1#�YJ#*X�h#I-,-.1[bY�h21?R#)#%H5W'#$[5Le6'�+*)5Al#)#�6'X#+|5JhIJ50J�+*)5Al#)#�GH#+*'{dh�%6'*)5Al#2A-,lb*5D#)#+*)5Al#)#�GH#X5re/'h�0Q#�+*)5Al#)#�GH#2R5-|*'#)#2A0RhIJ50J#*X#�GH#K5i&5Y1#X,R*5D+*)5Al#)#�GH#+*'{dE

]h;b#+',R#%D#%65`0R#K5VmYB'#$K5/)'#2o,R[X5i1#5k#2J*5l#�*X# �.S1# ;5R|# K*?B# ;53k# %R# Kx5L1# *X# $IJ'# a.W# @U)

21.6?W# E# %Gy1# *5eJ',-)# .At,k216'?=a�')# .#'*# 21?3H# +5k.AD#(mB'# .6'X,d,R# 2J*5l# %R# )�#�.0ZR?J#+5v# %R# %6'*5-# .A651%R# +*)5Al# +5v+�?&?Ap=%R# +X,Sk'*# �#Cv# )# �-n=',eJ'# +5v

>-'5k�#2J*5l# %R#2rrf=#K5VmYB'#u-.S=# $�IJX;b#�D#2-5kIJ'#a.W#�5fe6'#2&X5i1#;5F-',R#%D#�#)#$;5^&�1#X?o#�.<H#|'#5<A=

21,R# a|?V#,k#;5rrfe1.-b# E#)#�GH#IJ50J#�15AGrl#%D# 5y6b#|'#%B,H# >-'# ;5-?yF6'X# )# ;'X5eJ'# +',R# +,Sei1# @v,1# +*)5Al

%R21#*53W#2J*5l#%R#%65`0R#K5VmYB'#;.6'X,d,R#)#.-b216'?=#%R#.

-),=# )# ;.W#IJ.p-#�3D#�GH#uk'# ;501# *X#K5VmYB'#>-'#�21# %0B?=# '{&# $.AD2eV# c,eM1# ;5d.AZ-?6# X?W#|'# *).L3&'

[X5i1.AAD#aX5^eJ'#2J*5l#+5kE�h#*X# 2J*5l# ,0�# @v',1# ;5d.AZ-?6# 215J'# ,Dw# �?ro# *X

#.-5R#$%&5L1#>e1#2Z0G`6'#%R#5<6b#c56X?W#gfF1#2/*)5Q#*XE9h;)*X#K5H5v*'#+',R#)X#Kmy1#*X#2Ae1#X?v)#K)5^e1#�?0W

X*'X# E#j5J',R#@v,1#�*53W# $a.W#uL6#�GY1#uR5L1# $a?0W#�-#*X#a.1b#%&5L1#;5-5Q#*X#%D#2iR5A1#IJ,<l�m�1#_ 7"�21#�*X#$#)#X?W

21# ,�'# *5Fe6'# [5J# )#q&�1# c56# $c)X# �?0W# *X#*X# %15AGrl# %D# .-b21#aX5^eJ'#[)'#�)*#|'#$;5^&�1#*5D#2dX5J#+',R#,U5V#[5V.ADE

{&.AAD#aX5^eJ'#�)*#>03k#|'#.-5R#�k#c,eM1#;5d.AZ-?6#'E#%R#c|xa*53W#�0=,=#%D#IJ'#,Dw#%R#.-5R#@R5A1#I3Z/#*X#@v',1#+*'{d

.W5R#>e1#*X#a.W#,Dw#�0=,=EPh#5-#�5eD#;'?AH#)#%1?0d#;)*X#*X#%&5L1#;'?AH#$@R5A1#�fR#*X

-'#�G/# 5R# %Gy1�0&5e��*?1# �X?W#�*X# E'# *5Fe6'#[5J# $>0A�3k#,�.-50R#;5^&�1#c56#|'#�Q#%GB5lmRE

7O#h�t?D# 2H,l# >-)5AH# �G/# �|'.6'#)# .W5R# 2GB'# ;'?AH# |'# ,=;b#�*53WX?W#�*X#�t#%R#IJ'*#|'#5k#E21#X5<AF0Q#$>0A�3k#X?W

.W5R#%eW'X#a*53W#C06#%1.L1#�fR#%D#E77#h# a�')# |'# aX5^eJ'�K50RX'# �#(mYB'#uR5L1# *XW\,:34@:)43X#%R

#+5Ai1��k)nQ#�A0F0Q#$2Fk)nQ#*5�b#$>e1#�;b#.A651#)#IJ*X56#$5k# 2J*5l# ��')# >-'# .At,k# �IJ'�X?o# IJ*X56# +5Ai1# *X# �#*X

�k)nQIJ'#a.W#[)'.e1#*50ZR#23GH#)#2k5`F6'X#+5kE7!#h# �3GD�;5d�')# �#��')# ,R',R# *X# %D# IJ'# 2rrf=# 2VmYB'

\3k,J2/�3GD# @3v# K*?B# 5R# ;b# +5Ai1# )# a.W# @U)�a�')#��a�')5k# �IJ'#K)5^e1# E>-'# |'%R# $)*#�0D,=# |'# aX5^eJ'#+5v�#.0GD

;5d�')#�#K*5SH#$a.0pt#�fR#*X�a�')#.0GD5k#�X?W#aX5^eJ'E78#h#%&5L1#,k#;5d�')#X'.i=.-5R#,�D'.V9OOO.W5R#%3GDE7N#hIJ50J# *X# �<1# )# +.0GD# K5p6#$+*)5Al# )# �GH# +*'{d216'?=#�&5/#*X#.A�,0RX,J#%R#%156�#*X#,�D'.V#$NOO#*5Fe6'#%3GD

.AR5-E7:#h%v?=X?W%D*X@R5A12J*5l$15J'2?6;5d.AZ-5R.-

/#q^f1#%6#)#u15D#*?YR.0XX,dE7]#hX'.i=@v',1Kx5L1�*.A1*X%15AGrlIJ50J�GH)

+*)5Al$#,�D'.VNO1X*?12.W5RE

23GH#%15AGrlh2Fk)nQ

*'6#,4 6 701 89#:9 >#9?'#@A B'#+C DE DF#GHI#JKLMK

www.SID.ir

Page 16: Modeling the Interactive Future of Information Technology ... › uploads › InteractiveFutureModeling_Article.pdfArchive of SID 45673$+0(089$:;

Archive

of S

ID

93

Modeling the Interactive Future ofInformation Technology Based onthe System's Dynamics Approach

Mehdi Fateh Rad1, Sahar Kousari2

1- Faculty Member of Academic Board, SharifUniversity of Technology

2- PhD Student in Future Studies, University ofTehran

Abstract

One of the methods for firms to be successful ininformation technology industry is to reduce theprobability of the failure by adopting flexiblescenarios and developing strategies for thedevelopment . Among the current scenario-making methods is the uncertainty approachusing Global Business Network (GBN) method.In GBN, each scenario is made out of the cross-impact of two or three driving forces that have ahigh associated uncertainty. On the other hand,each scenario has a series of variables thatinteract with each other and every tiny change ineach of these variables would have a huge impacton other variables. This can be extremelyimportant in the field of policy making. Thus,scenario modeling as a dynamic system canmake decision makerscapable of realizing thefuture risks and opportunities. Using systemdynamism approach, in this paper a dynamicmodel of a scenario in the field ofcommunications, along with a pre-foresight planwill be offered. Then using Vensim software, wewill study the effects of different components ofthis scenario on each other in five differentsituations in identifying the variables that havethe strongest effect in the growth of the GDP.We also examine the effect of government’sbudget on the IT infrastructure developmentand on the production of ICT equipment.

Corresponding Author: [email protected]

Additionally we specify how the mentionedincrease in the government's budget will affectthe governmental supportive policies (loans andtax exemptions) or the investments of the privatesector.

Keywords: System's Dynamic, Scenario, GBNMethod, Tele Communications.

Volume 4, Number 4, Summer 2012Journal of

Science & Technology Policy

www.SID.ir