MOBILE SERVICES IN DEVELOPED ASIA PACIFIC: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2016 … · 2020-04-05 · competition in the mobile market 24. South Korea: Speed upgrades and new tariff plans will

Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

© Analysys Mason Limited 2017

RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT

analysysmason.com

MOBILE SERVICES IN DEVELOPED ASIA–PACIFIC: TRENDS

AND FORECASTS 2016–2021

KEREM ARSAL and CAI SHIYU



WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE KEY METRICS

Regions modelled:

Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)

Countries modelled individually:

Australia

Hong Kong

Japan

Singapore

South Korea

Taiwan

Detailed country commentary:

Australia

Hong Kong

Singapore

South Korea

Mobile Connections:

Handset, mobile broadband1,

M2M2

Prepaid, contract

2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)

Smartphone,

non-smartphone

Mobile Revenue:

Service3, retail

Prepaid, contract

Handset, mobile broadband1,

M2M2

Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU:

SIMs, handset

Prepaid, contract

Handset voice, data

Mobile voice traffic:

• Outgoing minutes, MoU

2

This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support

our 5-year forecast for developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP). It includes

both worldwide and specific country commentary on four key

countries: Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea.

The report provides forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground

market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and

external interviews.

For the complete data set for the region, please see the

accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/mobile-

DVAP-Jan2017.

About this report

Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators

in DVAP who wish to gain a better understanding of local market

demands and future trends, as well as best practices overseas.

Regulatory bodies in DVAP that want to deepen their understanding of

local markets and trends in overseas markets.

Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the

region, or advise others that do so, in order to gain qualitative and

quantitative market information.

Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the

mobile telecoms market in Asia–Pacific.

1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.


© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3

5. Executive summary

6. Executive summary

7. Worldwide trends

8. Worldwide: Revenue will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven

by infrastructure investments in network roll-out

9. Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up

of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost global penetration

10. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets

worldwide, and take-up will be highest in NA and WE

11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution

by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU

12. Regional trends

13. DVAP: Mobile handset data revenue increase will be crucial to telecoms

revenue growth in forecast period

14. Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration rates across all DVAP

countries will stabilise at an average of 123%

15. Mobile connections: 2G is in the process of being phased out; 4G and 5G

will account for 95% of all mobile connections in 2021

16. Geographical coverage: By 2021, 4G/5G will account for 90% of mobile

connections; FTTB household penetration will reach 93%

17. Smartphones and 4G/5G: increasing usage of apps and the migration to

4G/5G will increase smartphone penetration

18. Mobile ARPU: Mobile ARPU will maintain steady growth in

DVAP, reaching USD35 per month by the end of the forecast period

19. DVAP – mobile: 4G/5G technology will be used by 95% of all mobile

connections in 2021

20. Country-level trends

21. Australia: Infrastructure developments will help with

4G adoption and retail revenue growth

22. Hong Kong: Total service revenue will decline to USD3.7 billion, due to

drops in mobile penetration, despite service upgrades

23. Singapore: The entry of a fourth mobile operator is expected to increase

competition in the mobile market

24. South Korea: Speed upgrades and new tariff plans will lead to service

revenue growth during the forecast period

25. Forecast methodology and assumptions

26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts

and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics

27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data

collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers

28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our

forecasts; this involves three main activities

29. About the authors and Analysys Mason

30. About the authors

31. About Analysys Mason

32. Research from Analysys Mason

33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

Contents



Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue

(retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide,

2015–2021

Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide,

2011–2021

Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of

total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021

Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021

Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue

(retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and

growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2021

Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–

2021

Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), developed

Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G,

4G and 5G’s share of connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of

fixed broadband connections, by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2021

Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of

total connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, 2015 and 2021

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, developed Asia–

Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia–Pacific,

2011–20211

Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, developed

Asia–Pacific

Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Australia, 2015–

2021

Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Hong Kong, 2015–

2021

Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Singapore, 2015–

2021

Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Korea, 2015–

2021

List of figures



CONTENTS

5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

WORLDWIDE TRENDS

REGIONAL TRENDS

COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS

AUSTRALIA

HONG KONG

SINGAPORE

SOUTH KOREA

FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON



Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and

wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

6

Total telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)

will grow at a CAGR of 1.5% between 2015 and 2021. Revenue

from mobile handset data will be the main contributor to this

growth, and its share of total telecoms retail revenue will grow

steadily to reach 51% in 2021.

Operators in developed Asia–Pacific are worldwide leaders in the

deployment of advanced technologies, upgrading networks and

improving bandwidths. Countries including Japan and South Korea

are conducting 5G trials that focus primarily on high-speed mobile

broadband services. Mobile network operators (MNOs) such as

NTT Docomo, Korea Telecom and SK Telecom have joined forces

to develop a common platform standard and a common set of

testing specifications for 5G equipment and networks. 5G is

expected to be commercially available by 2020. As a result, mobile

handset data revenue will increase by USD27 billion over the

forecast period.

Mobile voice and messaging revenue will gradually decrease

during the forecast period. To sustain traditional core service

revenue, operators will leverage new services such as VoLTE and

Rich Communication Services (RCS).

Developed Asia–Pacific accounted for 13.2% of total mobile retail

revenue worldwide in 2015 and this will increase to 14.5% by

2021, thanks to service upgrades and speed enhancements.

Executive summary

Mobile voice Mobile messagingRetail revenue:

Service revenue (retail and wholesale):

Mobile handset data

Mobile broadband Mobile IoT

Fixed voice and narrowband Fixed broadband and IPTV

Business network services

0

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200

250

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Re

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(US

D b

illio

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Source: Analysys Mason



0%

50%

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150%

200%

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Pe

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nta

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of

the

po

pu

lati

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Australia Hong Kong

Japan Singapore

South Korea Taiwan

Developed Asia–PacificSource: Analysys Mason

Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific,

2011–2021

14

All countries in developed Asia–Pacific will have high active mobile

SIM penetration rates (over 110%) during the forecast period.

The well-developed and advanced infrastructure in developed

Asia–Pacific supports high mobile penetration in the region. This

enables high penetration of mobile apps and OTT services, which

drives up the demand for mobile data.

Hong Kong has the highest active mobile SIM penetration rate

in developed Asia–Pacific, both historically and for the forecast

period. However, the rate of penetration has declined and is

expected to drop from 205% in 2014 to 181% in 2021.

Singapore has the second-highest penetration rate in DVAP, but

growth will slowly decline and stabilise at 135% by 2021.

The high penetration rates illustrated above may be explained

by the advantageous position as trade and financial hubs that

both these two geographically compact cities hold within Asia–

Pacific. Both enjoy large numbers of frequent travellers, which

also explains the relatively high prepaid SIM share of all

handsets (44% for Hong Kong and 37% for Singapore).

The decline in mobile penetration rates in Hong Kong and

Singapore is a result of the economic slowdown (both worldwide

and within developed Asia–Pacific); Hong Kong’s and Singapore’s

reliance on tourism makes them particularly vulnerable to global

and regional economic trends. This is narrowing the gap between

these markets and the rest of DVAP.

Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration rates across all

DVAP countries will stabilise at an average of 123%



CONTENTSCONTENTS

29

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

WORLDWIDE TRENDS

REGIONAL TRENDS

COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS

AUSTRALIA

HONG KONG

SINGAPORE

SOUTH KOREA

FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON



About the authors

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) Shiyu contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia–Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore

office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia–

Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative

and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS

Business School, Singapore.

Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Mobile Services research programme; he also co-leads the

Convergence Strategies research programme. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing,

MVNO strategies, and the impact of fixed-mobile convergence on telecom markets. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid

Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous

projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and

enterprise segments. Kerem has a PhD in Information Systems from Boston University.



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Documents

MOBILE SERVICES IN DEVELOPED ASIA PACIFIC: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2016 … · 2020-04-05 · competition in the mobile market 24. South Korea: Speed upgrades and new tariff plans will