Mobile Evolution to 5G Business drivers and Technology enablers for 2020 networks

Dirk Wolter, Managing Director, Mobile Architecture, APAC

diwolter@cisco.com

April, 2015

Internet of Everything

Digitize the World

Connecting:

• People

• Process

• Data

• Things

Introduction: The Evolution of the Internet

Intelligent Connections

Connectivity Digitize Access to

Information

• Email

• Web Browser

• Search

Immersive Experiences

Digitize Interactions

(Business & Social)

• Social

• Mobility

• Cloud

• Video

Networked Economy

Digitize Business

Process

• E-commerce

• Digital Supply

Chain

• Collaboration

Business and

Societal Impact

Introduction: The Evolution of Mobile Technology

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Voice

Digital

Data

IP

IoE

4G – WiMAX. LTE/LTE Advanced

3G – WCDMA/HSPA. CDMA1x/EVDO

2G – GSM/GPRS/EDGE. DAMPS/CDMA

1G – TACS. AMPS

5G – …

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D

R&D ?

Introduction: Business Transitions

Strategic Options: 1. Smart Utility 2. Platform provider/enabler 3. Diversified player

New

Business Models

• Flexible, usage-based

pricing

• Direct, In-direct and

Pass through

• IoT/IoE

New

Financials

• Faster RoI

• Predictable OpEx

• Start-up innovation

• Agile Dev-ops

New

Competitors

• Global market reach over

the top (OTT)

• Reduced barriers to entry

• Accelerating pace of

innovation

• Services

• Ubiquitous bandwidth (no more cell edge)

• HD video everywhere (up and down)

• Internet of Everything (M2M, M2P & P2P)

• Sensing, Presence and Ad-hoc networking

• Web eco-system of Apps and Services

5G 2020 Vision

1. Higher System Capacity

2. High Data Rates

3. Lower Latency

4. Mass Connectivity

5. Energy Efficient

• 1000x capacity/km2

• 10-100x current 4G rates

• Below 1ms

• 100x connected devices

• 10x Network and Device power savings

• 10x faster time-to-market

Technical Requirements

6. More Agile

Internet of Everything

5G: Pillars Technology Enablers

RAN Diversity

Virtualisation

Lower TCO

Increase Agility

“5 Bars” Service

By the most cost effective access

Provide Business

Solutions

• Cars/Trucks

• Roads

• Appliances sensors

• Digital billboards

• Vending

• Inventory (RFID)

• Office facilities

• Intelligent GPS

• Home security devices

• Home energy devices

• Automated customer notifications

• Auto-translation

• Sponsored data

• Connected Life

• Video cameras

• Television

• Digital signage

• Social media

• Contact center TelePresence as a

Service

Remote Site

Monitoring Service

Targeted

Advertising

2 for 1

Juice BUY

mHealth Order

Refills

Personalized

Traffic report

Smart Health

Internet of Everything Service Providers

M2M

Commerce

Collaboration as a

Service

Intelligent

Diagnostics

Hyper Location

Presence

Connections Impacts

M2M

M2P

P2P

Home Security

Energy Control

World Population (Billion)

6.3 6.8 7.2 7.6

Connected Devices (Billion)

0.5 12.5 25 50

Connected Devices per

Person 0.1 1.8 3.5 6.6

2003 2010 2015 2020

5G Enables the Internet of Everything

3G 4G 5G

More Devices than People

Korea: Mobile Device Growth by Type Smartphones already dominate share, M2M is growth driver

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

M2M (27%,60%)

Smartphones (53%,32%)

Featurephones (17%,4%)

Tablets (2%,2%)

Laptops (1%,0%)

Wearables (0%,1%)

Other Portables (0%,0%)

15% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Millions of

Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share

2020:

• 165M Devices

• 230M Connections

• 46M Users

5G: Role of HetNet

Source: 5G Network Capacity, Key Elements and Technologies, Qian (Clara) Li, Huaning Niu, Apostolos (Tolis) Papathanassiou, and Geng Wu, Jan 2014

Last Decade Next Decade

Trends of Network Capacity Growth

Air Interface • Coordinated Multipoint Tx/Rx

• 3-D/Full-Dimensional MIMO

• New Modulation and/or Coding Schemes

Spectrum • More Licensed and Unlicensed Spectrum, Millimetre-

Wave Bands

• Licensed Shared Access

• Unlicensed Spectrum Sharing

Network Devices • Cell Densification

• Wireless Local Area Networks (WLAN) Offloading

• Integrated Multiple Radio Access Technology (RAT)

Operation

• Device-to-Device

• Joint Scheduling

• Information & Communication Technology Coupling

1000x 1000x b/s/m2

~20x

3x - 5x

5x-10x

~25x

1x - 2x

40x-50x

• 5G TCO and flexibility demands Orchestrated software-based virtualised network resources.

• Optimised virtual network functions (NFV) tailored to each application requirements, e.g.

• M2M Telemetry

• M2M Video

• Mobile Internet

• Enterprise Cloud Services

• Public Safety, etc.

• Each configured dynamically (SDN) using transport & compute resources from the same or different sources based on cost & availability.

• Centralised and/or distributed

• Private and/or Public Cloud

5G: The role of SDN and NFV

Service Orchestration

NFV SDN

TelCo Cloud

RAN Diversity

Virtualisation Internet of Things

LTE-M

LAA

Mobile/WiFi

Agg

dSON

cSON

802.11

ac/ad/af CRAN

eANDSF

802.11ah

IoT

Cloud Connect

Universal

Smallcells

eICIC

LoRa

M2M

Zigbee

LTE

Air Interface

Enh

Inter Cloud SDN

NFV

Orchestration

VNFs

VPC, vIMS, Gi-LAN

VoWiFi

Data Centre

Orchestration

Telco Cloud

VoLTE

Unified

Computing System

MANO

Heterogeneous Network

(HetNet) Low Power Wireless Access

(LPWA)

Borderless Networks

Analytics Security

Vertical Solutions

Collaboration

Management

Internet of Everything

GERAN

Enh

Network

Intelligence SaMOG

New

Spectrum

LTE D2D

5G: Technology Enablers from Various Sources

Connectivity

Intelligence & Optimization

Virtualize & Orchestrate

Dynamic Network

Knowledge Network

Mobile Network Evolution 5 Phase Strategy

4

5

1

2

3

Heterogeneous Networks

Analytics & Software Abstraction

Telco Cloud/NFV

Closed loop/SON

Predictive SW

Voice & Messaging Enterprise M2M

Cisco Mobile Internet Architecture

Macro Cells Any G / Any Vendor

Universal Small Cells

ASR5000 Series Packet Core 2G, 3G, LTE, WiFi, Femto, inline Services

ASR900 & 9000 Series Unified Mobile Backhaul TDM, ATM, IP, GE, 10 GE, L3VPN, etc

Wi-Fi APs, Femto, dSON

Universal Monetization Architecture Policy, Orchestration, Abstraction

vIMS Hosted Collaboration Suite

(HCS) IoT Cloud Connect

Access

Services

Network

Heterogeneous

Intelligent

Telco Cloud

Un

ifie

d D

ata

Ce

nte

r IP

/MP

LS

Ba

ckb

on

e

Universal RAN Orchestration Wi-Fi SON ANDSF 3G, LTE cSON

He

tNet

Virtual Packet Core (VPC)

Mobility IQ Analytics

NEW

NEW

NEW

NEW

• 5G is about Evolution not Revolution to a 2020 world

• Mobile first, Video by default, Internet of Everything, Web Apps & Services

• 5G networks will be built on 3 themes:

1. Internet of Everything Enablers

2. RAN Diversity

3. Virtualistion

• Cisco Mobile strategy builds on these to transform 4G networks of today

Summary