Mn/DOT – ACEC/MN Annual Consultant Conference Partnering – Innovation – Multimodal March 1, 2011

The New Transformer Sequel:“Transportation Engineer Becomes Atmospheric Scientist”

Richard H. Osa, QEP*

Mn/DOT – ACEC/MN Annual Consultant Conference

Partnering – Innovation – Multimodal

March 1, 2011

Earle Brown Heritage Center

*with technical assistance, courtesy of Tom Fidler, P.E., Bonestroo

Transformers…

…Traditionally Tough On All Modes Of Transportation

Transportation Engineer Transforms Into…

… Atmospheric Scientist!

Transportation Engineer Becomes…

•Civil engineer•Financial analyst•Public relations specialist•Materials scientist•Supply chain traffic cop•Contracts administrator•Labor negotiator•Et cetera

…Just wasn’t enough

Because:

Transportation—Part of the Problem…While transportation makes possible our complex and

comfortable lifestyle,

▫ Transportation demands almost 28% of the country’s energy—most of it provided by dwindling oil supplies

▫ Transportation generates massive quantities of air pollutants: potential for localized acute health impacts

o CO

o NOx

o PM2.5 (and its precursors)

o contributes to regional O3 formation

o over half of transportation emissions due to personal vehicles

greenhouse gas emissions add to global climate change

o transportation responsible for one-third of U.S. GHG emissions

Transportation Planning, Design—Part of the Solution…

▫ Vehicle manufacturers doing their part aerodynamics

engine efficiency

after a long stagnant period, even personal vehicle fleet fuel economy projected to improve in coming years


▫ Multi-modal options promise even greater freight transport savings

sophisticated logistical management systems select optimal mode(s) & minimize deadheading


▫ Deliberate planning methods can reduce VMT, fuel demand, air emissions

▫ Advanced roadway designs can reduce congestion, fuel demand, and build-up of unhealthy air pollutant concentrations

▫ Advanced transportation management policies & technology can also reduce congestion with corresponding benefits

Today’s Message: Changes Are Coming

▫ National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

•NO2

•PM2.5

•O3

•CO▫ Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Management

▫ “SIP Conformity” process: new challenges• MOVES emissions model• “Hot Spot” monitoring, assessment

Today’s Message: Changes Are Coming—NAAQS

Atmospheric Chemistry

NO + O3 NO2

NOx, SO2 PM2.5 (NO3-, SO4

-2), “haze”

VOC, NOx O3, “haze”

(sunlight)

Today’s Message: Changes Are Coming—NO2

▫NO2

This one is HOT! 1/10/2010 EPA adds new, 1-hr

standard (100 ppb) to existing 53 ppb annual NAAQS

May affect any combustion source with a low release height and limited “buffer” distance to ambient air

Additional monitoring required—near highways


EPA is establishing new NO2 ambient air monitoring requirements:

• In urban areas, monitors required near major where maximum concentrations expected

• Additional monitors required in large urban areas to measure the highestconcentrations that occur more broadly across communities



Atmospheric Chemistry I: NOx

▫ NOx is combustion byproduct

atmospheric and fuel nitrogen and atmospheric oxygen under high temperature and pressure

in internal combustion engine exhaust, most NOx is in the form of nitric oxide, NO

▫ In the atmosphere, NO oxidizes to NO2

reaction rate is largely determined by atmospheric ozone (O3) concentration—the higher the O3 concentration, the faster NO converts to NO2

▫ NAAQS is specific to NO2; if NO has not converted to NO2 by the time it reaches a monitor (or receptor being modeled), it doesn’t “count”



▫ National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

Today’s Message: Changes Are Coming—PM2.5

▫PM2.5 recipes:

Primary PM2.5 emissions SO2 + O2 = SO4

-2 (part.)

NOx + O2 = NO3- (part.)

▫EPA & states regulating both primary emissions, as well as the precursors NOx, SO2, making PM2.5 a triple threat


▫Particulate Matter 9/21/2006 EPA promulgates PM2.5 standards

35 µg/m3, 24 hr avg, 15 µg/m3, annual avg retains PM10 NAAQS: 150 µg/m3, 24 hr avg

Managing “secondary” particles crucial to PM2.5

attainmento constrains SO2 and NOx emissions


Already very close to natural background concentrations…especially in the western (drier) states

Next NAAQS review is going to be late—maybe proposal in summer 2011; promulgation in 2012?

Today’s Message: Changes Are Coming--Ozone

▫ O3

Still struggling with “old, old” 1-hr standard in legacy non-attainment areas

Making progress on the “old, new” (1997) 8-hr standard (85 ppb)

“Phase 2” implementation rule for “old, new” 8-hr standard being contested; resolution expected ???

“New, new” (2008) 8-hr standard (75 ppb)

Ozone standard is coming frighteningly close to natural background concentrations

Managed by controlling VOC and/or NOx emissions

Today’s Message: Changes Are Coming—CO & Lead

▫ CO

1/28/2011 EPA proposes no change to NAAQS (Hooray!!!)

Additional air monitoring proposed

▫ Pb

11/12/2008 EPA reduced standard from 1.5 µg/m3 to 0.15 µg/m3, 24-hour average

12/14/2010 additional air monitoring required

Today’s Message: Changes Are Coming

▫ Just because a monitor shows NAAQS compliance does not mean you’re off the hook…

▫ Modeling may not be as “forgiving”; modeled violations may pose just as effective a barrier to a project as monitoring

So…Let’s Look At Modeling and NO2 Compliance

Distance From Hwy Centerline (m)

Transportation Design to Reduce Carbon Footprint

▫ Simulation compared traffic flow, projected fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions (i.e., “carbon footprint”) of traditional signalized intersections with an alternative configuration using roundabouts

▫ Exercise used the VISSIM simulation software

Base Case—Signalized Configuration

Base Case—Signalized Configuration

Alternative Case—Roundabout Pair

Alternative Case—Roundabout Pair


▫

Fuel Consumption

(gal)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

(CO2 equivalent)

6-hr Annual6-hr (lb)

Annual(metric tonne)

Two Signalized Intersections 37 53,407 710 387

Two Roundabout Intersections 24 34,733 462 252

Greenhouse Gas Emission

Reduction 13 18,673 248 135


▫

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Documents

Mn/DOT – ACEC/MN Annual Consultant Conference Partnering – Innovation – Multimodal March 1, 2011