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THOUGHTS ON THE REFERENDUMDavid Farrar
Some propositions• Ignore anyone who tells you that only one of the five
options is democratic or acceptable• All five options are acceptable and are in use in democratic
countries, and all have pros and cons• The debate should be about what attributes matter most to
people, and which system fits those attributes best• We are in danger of having a decision by default, instead of
by informed consent as campaign should have started way earlier
• Likely MMP will win due to four things – no major champion for change, the review of MMP if it wins and the dollars lined up to defend MMP, and that John Key is running a successful Government
1996 ElectionMMP SM FPP
National 44 53 55
Labour 37 47 48
NZ First 17 12 11
Alliance 13 4 2
ACT 8 3 2
United 1 1 2
Nat/NZF 61/120 65/120 66/120
1999 ElectionMMP SM FPP
Labour 49 68 73
National 39 41 39
Alliance 10 3 2
ACT 9 2
Green 7 3 2
NZ First 5 2 2
United 1 1 2
Lab/All 59/120 71/120 75/120
2002 ElectionMMP SM FPP
Labour 52 72 77
National 27 35 37
NZ First 13 4 2
ACT 9 2
Green 9 2
United 8 3 2
Progressive 2 2 2
Lab/United 61/120 75/120 79/120
2005 ElectionMMP SM FPP
Labour 50 53 54
National 48 53 53
NZ First 7 2
Green 6 2
Maori 4 6 7
United 3 2 2
ACT 2 1 2
Progressive 1 1 2
Lab/Uni/NZF/Prog 61/121 58/121 58/121
2008 ElectionMMP SM FPP
National 58 68 69
Labour 43 39 36
Green 9 2
Act 5 2 2
Maori 5 7 9
United 1 1 2
Progressive 1 1 2
Nat/ACT/Mao 68/121 77/121 80/121
Electoral Attributes• Proportionality of Representation• Proportionality of Power• All votes count• Minor Party representation• Diversity of Parliament• Stability of Government• Ability to keep parties to promises• Size of Electorates• Are MPs elected directly or indirectly• Maori representation• Ability to sack a Government• Ability to sack an MP• Concerns over Extremists
Proportionality of Representaion
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Proportionality of Power
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
All votes count
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Minor Party Representation
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Diversity of Parliament
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Stability of Government
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Party can implement policies as promised
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Size of Electorates
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
All MPs elected directly
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Maori Representation
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Sack a Government
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Sack an MP
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Keeps Out Extremists
•MMP •SM•FPP•PV•STV
Final Thoughts• Probably last referendum on the system for 50+ years• Make sure you vote• After the system is chosen or confirmed, still lots of other
electoral issues such as term of Parliament, electorate boundary variance, open v closed lists, standing in an electorate and list etc etc
• While likely MMP will win this time, if referendum had been held in 2008, then I think people would have voted for change
• Unfortunate if MMP is retained purely because people like John Key, just as unfortunate if people dumped it purely because of Winston’s antics. Should be a decision based on the attributes.
