Mixed Signals are Confusing Santa Claus

8/3/2019 Mixed Signals are Confusing Santa Claus

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

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December 22, 2011 Mixed Signals are Confusing Santa Claus

A successful Santa Clause rally would have all equity averages above their 200-day simple

moving averages at; 11,936 Dow Industrials, 1259.6 S&P 500, 2662 NASDAQ, 2288 NASDAQ 100(NDX), 4977 Dow Transports, 763.99 Russell 2000, and 392.08 SOX. Only the Dow Industrials &Dow Transports are providing this leadership. Stocks are cheap when 75% or more of allstocks are undervalued and todays reading is 73.6%. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury isbelow its 50-day SMA at 2.046, but my weekly risky level at 1.826 has been tested. Gold tradedas high as $1643.7 on Wednesday versus my semiannual pivot at 1644.8, but the close was jusbelow the 200-day SMA at $1618.1. Crude oil popped back above its 50-day and 200-day SMAsat $95.16 and $95.77, and with a larger than expected inventories drawdown there could be abullish crossover where the 50-day rises above the 200-day. This would signal a stronger thanexpected economy, which will help Santa guide his reindeer Saturday night. The euro remainsoversold on its daily chart and a higher euro will make Rudolfs nose be brighter.

10-Year Note (1.974) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690with the 50-day simple moving average at 2.046, weekly and daily risky levels at 1.826 and 1.790, andsemiannual and monthly risky levels at 1.672 and 1.602.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1618.0) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are $1507.9, $1469.9 and$1,356.5 with the 200-day at $1618.1, my semiannual pivot at $1644.8, and quarterly, weekly and

monthly risky levels at $1738.4, $1773.6 and $1873.8, and the September 6

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all time high at $1923.7The years low was $1535.0 set on September 26 th.


Nymex Crude Oil ($98.86) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with daily and monthly valuelevels at $93.55 and $86.20, the 200-day simple moving average at $95.77, the 50-day at $95.16,

quarterly, monthly and annual pivots at $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92, and weekly, semiannual riskylevels at $105.58, $103.93 and $107.90. The high and low for oil happened on the same days as theDow with the high at $114.83 per barrel on May 2nd.



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The Euro (1.3043) Daily and quarterly value levels are 1.2722 and 1.2598 with a weekly pivot at1.3054, the 50-day simple moving average at 1.3551, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at

1.3953, 1.4752 and 1.4872.


Daily Dow: (12,108) The 200-day simple moving average is 11,936 with the 50-day at 11,847. Weeklydaily, annual, and semiannual value levels are 11,934, 11,732, 11,491, 9,635 and 8,468 with a weeklypivot at 12,043, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,507 and 13,890. The October 4 th low was

10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at 12,876.00..



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S&P 500 (1243.7) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with a daily value level at 1198.9, annual andmonthly pivots at 1210.7 and 1211.8, a weekly pivot at 1231.8, semiannual value levels at 981.3 and

855.7, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58.NASDAQ (2578) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with a daily value level at 2489, weekly andmonthly pivots at 2585 and 2588, and annual value level at 2335, semiannual value levels at 2199 and2049, and quarterly risky level at 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2249) The YTD low is 2034.92 with a daily value level at 2182, a monthlypivot at 2282, semiannual value levels at 1951 and 1861, a weekly pivot at 2245, a quarterly risky leveat 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42, and my annual risky level at 2590.

Dow Transports (4985) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with daily, monthly and semiannualvalue levels at 4810, 4752, 4335 and 3868, a weekly pivot at 4962, and annual, weekly and quarterlyrisky levels at 5179 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 set on July 7 th.

Russell 2000 (740.45) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with daily and monthly value levels at704.66 and 695.30, semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, a weekly risky level at 745.86, andannual and quarterly risky levels at 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57 seton May 2nd.

The SOX (354.45) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with daily and monthly value levels at 332.38,an annual value levels at 270.98, a weekly risky level at 372.49, and quarterly risky level at 417.63,and the YTD high at 450.79.

Equity Fundamentals Stocks remain fundamentally cheap. 73.6% of all stocks are undervalued / 26.4% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4 th 93.5%

of all stocks were undervalued. Seven sectors are undervalued and nine sectors are overvalued in a range from 15.6%

undervalued to 11.2% overvalued. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% t45%. Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a FearlessPrediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

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On Wednesday we added Oracle (OREO) at $25.25 and Walgreens (WAG) at $31.15, and thesepositions are up 2.1% and 7.1% respectively.

ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds usethis link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=CThe December FDIC report with complete analysis of


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the Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to thehousing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investmenthelp based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VECapital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offeto your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slowstochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price

weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiplelong position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple

short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share pricestrength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My

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Mixed Signals are Confusing Santa Claus