Mining Forecasts Study

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Executive Summary

Thunder Bay District

Exploration and Mining Industry

Employment and Hiring Forecasts

Executive Summary

Thunder Bay District

Exploration and Mining Industry

Employment and Hiring Forecasts

2012



2 Executive Summary: Thunder Bay Mining Ind

Research was conducted in partner

Workforce Planning Board.

This project is funded in part by

This project is funded in part by the

The opinions and interpretations in

not necessarily reflect those of the

Copyright © 2012 Mining Industry H

All rights reserved. The use of anysystem, or transmitted in any formphotocopying or recording), withoutlaw.

For more information, contact:

Mining Industry Human Resources

260 Hearst Way, Suite 401

Kanata, Ontario K2L 3H1

Tel: 613 270 9696Fax: 613 270 9399

Email: [email protected]

Or visit the website at:

www.mihr.ca

Published February 2012

stry Employment and Hiring Forecast

ship with and funded in part by contributions from N

he Ontario Government

Government of Canada.

his publication are those of the author and do

overnment of Canada.

uman Resources Council (MiHR)

art of this publication, whether it is reproduced, storr by means (including electronic, mechanical, photothe prior written permission of MiHR is an infringem

Council

Insert Title

2011

orth Superior

ed in a retrievalgraphic,ent of copyright



3 Executive Summary: Thunder Bay Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecast

Human resources challenges are one of the largest threats to the future competitiveness of theCanadian mining industry.1 The looming retirement of the baby boom generation, the difficulty

attracting and engaging younger workers, and an under-representation of diverse groups such asaboriginal people, women and new Canadians, all contribute to the human resources challenges.

This report was prepared for the North Superior Workforce Planning Board (NSWPB) by the MiningIndustry Human Resources Council (MiHR) and pertains to the North Superior Workforce PlanningBoard area which includes the geographic region of the Thunder Bay District and the communities ofWebequie, Nibinamik, and Neskantaga. The forecast presented here represents a customizeddevelopment of a regional mining labour market forecast for the Thunder Bay District.

Industry Definition and Scope

For the purposes of its forecasts, MiHR defines the mining industry as including all phases of the

mining cycle: exploration, development, extraction, processing and reclamation. The MiHR forecastspresented here include: exploration, mining and quarrying; support services and contractors (notincluding oil and gas); iron and steel mills and ferro-alloy manufacturing; alumina and aluminum; andother non-ferrous metal production and processing.

Forecasts presented in the report rely heavily on data from Statistics Canada, among othertraditional sources of data. Findings from primary research in the industry (questionnaires andinterviews) are used to verify and validate data from other sources.

1 Ernst and Young, Business risks facing mining and metals, 2010.

1 Background & Scope




In order to better understand the

given the data constraints and estto industry stakeholders in a surv

associated with the mining industr

perspectives on the region’s minin

development, support, and servic

validate and verify the assumption

challenges facing mining in the re

Tight Labour Market

There is a very high demand for

enough workers with the necessa

Worker Demand to Outstrip

As exploration and development

expectations that the labour mark

workers will continue to outstrip s

Projected Mining Growth

Two to five new mines will likely o

eight of the more than 300 explor

into operation before the decade’

development activities move into

Highly Mobile Labour Force

The large amount of mining activit

forces many companies to compe

Engineers, skilled trades and exp

retirement separation of workers

work outside the Thunder Bay Dis

opportunities in other parts of Can

Aging Workforce

One issue acknowledged by most

the need to prepare for the loomincurrently existing operations.

Employing Aboriginal Peopl

In addition to those activities, em

engage and employ members of t

2 Regional Economic


ariables at play in the Thunder Bay District lab

imation exercises necessary for this project, Miy on labour market needs and fifteen key infor

y in the region. These methods offered insights

g labour market from government, extraction,

sections of the labour market. Inputs were the

s used in the modelling exercise. Key informan

gion.

orkers in the region, but there are not enough

ry skills or qualifications to fill all of the current

Supply

ctivities continue in the Ring of Fire, stakehold

t in the region will remain very competitive an

pply into the future.

pen in or close to the region over the next five

tion and development projects currently under

end. Significant pressures will continue to be f

roduction stages.

y taking place in Northern Ontario, Canada an

te nationally and globally, not just regionally for

rienced drillers are positions where the mobilit

ere highest. When people have departed their

trict, they have largely moved to Southern Ont

ada.

of the survey participants was the aging of the

g retirement of the Baby-Boom generation, par

s and Other Diverse Groups

loyers noted that their organizations were focu

he local Aboriginal communities.

verview

ur market and

HR reached outants

and

xploration and

n used to

ts raised six key

orkers, or

emands.

rs expressed

demand for

ears and five to

ay could move

elt as advanced

the world,

their labour.

and non-

organizations to

rio or found

labour force and

ticularly in

ed on efforts to




Forecasts of hiring requirements

three scenarios—baseline, contrworkers will be significant, as shrequirements over the next 10 ycontractionary scenario; and 4,1(baseline) in the mining sector fin 2011.

Table 1 Cumulative Hiring RequirementsBy Scenario—2022

Ch

Emp

Contractionary

Baseline

Expansionary 1

Source: Mining Industry Human Resources

Hiring Requirements Foreca

Occupational coefficients represmining labour force. Coefficientsoperating mines and are used tospecific occupations (based onworkforce).

MiHR includes 66 key occupatiooccupations represent just overselected to represent a broad spindustry. Occupations listed in th

jobs that are commonly found inspecific administrative roles, acc

roles).

Table 3 shows the occupational

2Note: Estimates of future employment can

baseline employment, 2,125, estimated at stemployment by 2022 is estimated at 2,815.

3 Hiring Requiremen


for the Thunder Bay District mining industry w

actionary and expansionary. In all three cases,own in Table 1. This results in projected cumulars of 2,840 workers in a baseline scenario; 1,

50 workers in an expansionary scenario. Totalr the region was estimated to be approximately

Forecast—Thunder Bay District

nge in

loymentReplacement Requirements

Retirement Non-RetiremeSeparation

-410 720 800

660 1,050 1,135

,540 1,270 1,270

ouncil, January 2012 2

Estimates do not add perfectly due to rou

t By Occupation

ent the proportions of each occupation that areare developed from Census data and MiHR subreak down the forecasted hiring requirementOC-S codes that are essential and/or typical o

ns in its occupation-level analysis of forecasts.70 per cent of the total industry employment anectrum of jobs that are considered unique or ee “other” category are considered non-specificother sectors (e.g., cleaning and janitorial positountants and business analysts, nurses and ot

hiring requirements by broad occupational cate

be calculated by adding “change in employment” over the forecaart of the forecast period. Thus in the baseline scenario, the fore

ts

re produced for

demand fortive hiring

110 workers in amployment2,125 workers

CumulativeHiring

Requirements nt

1,110

2,840

4,150

nding.

present in therveys ofinto needs for

f the mining

hesed are carefullysential to theto mining andions, non-er healthcare

gory.

t period to theasted level of




Table 3 Cumulative Hiring Requirements Forecast by Occupational Category

3-Thunder Bay District

Baseline Scenario—2014, 2017, 2022

Cumulative Hiring Requirements

2014 2017 2022

Trades and Labour Occupations 310 570 1280Professional and Physical Science Occupations 35 65 150Human Resources and Financial Occupations 15 30 60Support workers 30 55 130Technical Occupations 25 45 105Supervisors, Coordinators and Foremen 55 100 220All other occupations 220 405 895Total 690 1,270 2,840Source: Mining Industry Human Resources Council, January 2012

Notable Trends and Potential HR Issues

Based on the forecasts presented here, there are a number of trends and potential HR issues

facing the mining industry in the Thunder Bay District. These include:

The greatest hiring requirements, in terms of numbers of hires, facing the region on an

occupation basis are in the “trades and undesignated occupations” category. The category

facing the second greatest hiring requirements is the “supervisors, coordinators, and

foremen” . “Professional and physical science” and “Technicians” occupations require highly educated

and experienced workers. These roles, while perhaps not as great in number, prove difficult

to fill, largely because the qualified talent are highly mobile and have high education

achievements and adaptable skill sets.

The demographics and aging of the workforce indicate that the industry in the Thunder Bay

District will be losing workers with managerial and leadership experience. Aboriginal peoples are an important source of talent for the district. Many employers in the

region have proactive strategies to engage and develop the potential that exists in local

Aboriginal communities.

Immigration will continue to be another key source of talent for the district. Mining is a

global industry and many skilled workers are already coming to Canada to find

opportunities. However, new Canadians tend to settle in large urban centres. Employers in

the district may find positive results in strategies to attract immigrant talent from large cities.

Women are broadly under-represented in Canadian mining (14 per cent compared to 47per cent in the national labour force) and this is true for the district as well. Efforts to remove

potential barriers and ensure opportunities for women in the industry will be key in filling

future hiring requirements in the district.

3An occupation-specific breakdown of the needs within each category is possible. However, with smaller regional-specific data sets,

such as the ones used here, the error margins for an occupation-specific breakdown are significantly high. These are presented inAppendix B, but should be interpreted with caution. Occupation needs will adjust over the forecast period and be mainly driven bythe specific context of the mining operations that develop in the region.




A natural reaction to MiHR’s hiri

potential sources of talent are fo

The talent availability forecastsoccupations. The model adjusts

industries, by starting with the e

people who leave the labour for

(i.e., individuals leaving school t

countries (immigration) and othe

people re-entering the labour for

Sources of labour market exits i

changes in occupation, and disa

Available Talent for Ontario

Forecasts of availability for Onta

forecast provide estimates of lab

Although a number of the occup

talent was forecast by occupatio

potential pool of workers in the p

Table 4 shows the availability of

province of Ontario. According t

entrants into Ontario’s labour for

industry in Ontario has attracted

constant moving forward, Ontari

next 10 years. These forecasts

District will face significant chall

the region. In fact, the region wil

mining labour pool in Ontario to

Table 4

Cumulative Available Talen

66 Occupations—2014, 201

Total entrants for 66 occupation

sectors

Mining’s share of entrants for 66

(assuming the historic rate of 2.

Source: Mining Industry Human Resources

4 Talent Availability


g requirements forecasts is a desire to know

r the projected needs.

resented here use a stock and flow model forthe labour force each year for each occupation

isting labour force, adding new entrants, and s

e. The main sources of new entrants include s

join the labour force); individuals coming to O

r provinces (inter-provincial migration); and oth

ce after a temporary absence (e.g., after a par

clude emigration to other provinces or countrie

bility or death.

Mining

rio were prepared for 66 occupations. The resu

our supply for all industry sectors over a 10-ye

ations are specific to mining, many are not, thu

n across all industries. This allows for assessm

rovince from which the mining industry can dra

talent over a two-, five-, and 10-year horizon fo

model projections, there will be approximately

ce for the selected 66 occupations. Historically,

2.2 per cent of new entrants. Assuming this rat

o’s mining can expect to attract 10,020 new ent

f available talent for Ontario suggest that the T

nges in sourcing talent to fill hiring requiremen

ll need to attract nearly 30 per cent of the all ne

meet forecasted hiring requirements.

, Ontario, All Sectors and Mining

, 2022

2014 2017

, all industry137,560 274,89

occupations

per cent)3,016 6,027

ouncil, January 2012.

in Ontario

here the

pecificacross all

ubtracting

hool leavers

tario from other

ers such as

ntal leave).

s, retirement,

lts of the

r horizon.

total supply of

ent of the

w.

r the entire

457,080 new

the mining

e remains

rants over the

hunder Bay

s forecasted for

w entrants to the

2022

457,080

10,020




The proportion of new entrants to the labour market that the mining industry attracts varies

among the occupations, depending on how specific each occupation is to the mining industry.

For example, the mining industry typically attracts about 2 per cent of HR specialists in Ontario’s

labour pool, but attracts 96 per cent of underground miners.

Increasing Mining’s Share of Available Talent

Just as the nature of talent gaps differs among occupations, so too do the strategies to addressthe gaps. In some cases, the industry must aim to attract more entrants from an existing pool

(e.g., carve out a larger slice of the talent pie).

To address these sorts of gaps the industry can:

Work together to present a unified front in promoting careers in mining to youth, workers in

other provinces, and new immigrants.

Support career awareness and outreach activities of various associations, like the North

Superior Workforce Planning Board.

Adopt an industry brand that promotes positive impressions of careers in mining and

dispels myths. MiHR’s Explore for More brand can be readily adapted to provincial and

regional needs.

Coordinate and expand initiatives to engage, educate, train, and provide employment

opportunities for under-represented and under-utilized segments of the labour force, such

as women, new Canadians, and local Aboriginal communities.

Create a community of practice to share experiences, initiatives, and practices and create

synergies amongst regional employers in attracting new talent.

Growing the Talent Pool

In other cases, there simply aren’t enough people in the talent pool to meet the industry’s

needs. The industry and its counterparts in education and immigration must strive to increase

the number of entrants and grow the talent pool (i.e., make the pie bigger).

Possible approaches to growing a talent pool include:

Exploring flexibility in apprenticeship and training programs to develop new workers faster,without compromising quality of training.

Increase industry’s participation in local education task forces, planning boards, and

committees.

Coordinate industry efforts with local educational institutions to provide work experience

programs and encourage graduates to remain in the local area.




Support and strengthen efforts to facilitate communication between employers, in

expressing needs, and education institutions, in working to address the needs.

Invest in pre-employment and in-house training programs to ensure equal opportunities for

all communities of interest and smooth transitions from training to employment.




www.mihr.ca

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Mining Forecasts Study