Mike Deas, P.E., Ph.D.Watercourse Engineering, Inc.

4-2-18

Shasta Lake and Keswick Reservoir Water Temperature Modeling with CE-QUAL-W2 Goal:

Develop and apply CE-QUAL-W2 models of Shasta Lake and Keswick Reservoir to augment existing tools in support of water temperature management in the Sacramento River below Keswick Dam.

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Outline Introduction

Project Area Modeling Technical Committee

Model Selection Model Data Needs Model Development Model Calibration Model Documentation Next Steps

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Acknowledgements Sacramento River Settlement Contractors U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Modeling Technical Committee participants

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Project Area

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Modeling Technical Committee Objective:

Provide an open forum to review data, information, and assumptions related to developing CE-QUAL-W2 models of Shasta Lake and Keswick Reservoir.

Participants Federal and State Agencies NGO’s Other technical interests

Approach Agency and stakeholder outreach Provide forum for input Documentation Progression

Meeting frequency 4 to 6 weeks from late 2016 to present (ongoing)

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Model Selection: Previous/Existing Models Planning Models

Time horizon One-dimensional Models (laterally and longitudinal

average) HEC-5Q (1-D) WQRRS (1-D)

Two-dimensional Models (laterally averaged) CE-QUAL-W2 (2-D)

NBS/USGS University of Nevada Reno NMFS

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Model Selection: CE-QUAL-W2 CE-QUAL-W2

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers model V 3.72 (V4.0)

Basic Attributes Actively supported Principal code author Open source code (allowing review and modification) No cost (no initial cost or annual maintenance fee) Comprehensive documentation and training (fee)

Technical Attributes Two-dimensional representation (longitudinal and vertical

changes) Branching networks (e.g., dendritic nature of Shasta Lake) Models large changes in reservoir stage Multiple outlets provide flexibility to represent selective

withdrawal Ability to incorporate temperature control curtains Comprehensive water quality (if desired) User interface for input file quality control Post processors (both public and proprietary) available Wide range of applications

Model Data Development Geometry

Dam outlet structures Bathymetry (and tributary/diversion locations) Topographic shading (minor)

Flow/hydraulics Inflow (hourly, daily) Outflow/operations (hydropower peaking) (hourly) Storage (hourly, daily) Selective withdrawal operations (daily, weekly)

Water Temperature Inflow (hourly, daily) Outflow (hourly, daily) Temperature profiles (weekly, monthly)

Meteorology Solar, air temperature, dew point (or similar vapor pressure term), wind speed,

wind direction, cloud cover, barometric pressure (hourly) Model Parameters (default)

Period of Record: 2010-20169

Model Data Development Geometry

Dam outlet structures USBR Bathymetry (and tributary/diversion locations) USGS/Other Topographic shading (minor) USGS

Flow/hydraulics Inflow (hourly, daily) USGS Outflow/operations (hydropower peaking) (hourly) USBR Storage (hourly, daily) USBR Selective withdrawal operations (daily, weekly) USBR

Water Temperature Inflow (hourly, daily) USGS Outflow (hourly, daily) USBR Temperature profiles (weekly, monthly) USBR*

Meteorology Solar, air temperature, dew point (or similar vapor pressure term), wind speed,

wind direction, cloud cover, barometric pressure (hourly) NWS Model Parameters (default)

Period of Record: 2010-201610*Keswick Tw Monitoring

Geometry: Outlet Infrastructure Shasta Dam River outlets TCD Spill

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Geometry: Outlet Infrastructure Keswick Dam Spring Creek Powerhouse

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Bathymetry Shasta Lake

No available bathymetric surveys Used pre-dam topographic maps Objective: develop a digital map to support CE-QUAL-W2

modeling at a resolution of approximately: 1 m thick layers 500 – 1,000 m long segments

Keswick Reservoir No available bathymetric surveys Completed a survey in December 2016 Objective: develop a digital map to support CE-QUAL-W2

modeling at a resolution of approximately: 1 m thick layers 100- 200 m long segments

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14Shasta Lake 100 ft bathymetry embedded in upland DEM

Shasta Lake Bathymetry

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365,232 XYZ data points from survey 6,072 XYZ data points for shoreline and

Spring Creek 1 m contours

Keswick Bathymetry

Flow Inflow Outflow Stage/storage Selective

Withdrawal

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Shasta Lake

Keswick Reservoir

N

Sacramento River

McCloudRiver

Spring Ck/PH

Squaw Creek Pit

Rive

Water Temperature Inflow Outflow Profile

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Shasta Lake

Keswick Reservoir

N

Sacramento River

McCloudRiver

Spring Ck/PH

Squaw Creek Pit

Rive

Meteorology Station

KRDD Others

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Shasta Lake

Keswick Reservoir

N

Sacramento River

McCloudRiver

Spring Ck/PH

Squaw Creek Pit

Rive

CE-QUAL-W2 Model Development Model computational grid** Default model parameters Model input files

Boundary conditions Control file Other

Leakage representation (historic) Temperature control device (TCD) historic operations

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CE-QUAL-W2 Model Grid Shasta Lake

100 ft (30.5 m) contour map Historic topography (20 ft contour) USGS DEM (30 m DEM) Google Earth shoreline refinement Started with UNR/NOAA grid

Keswick Reservoir 1 m contour map Field survey Google Earth shoreline refinement

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Shasta Lake Model Grid

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Profile View (Pit River (main) branch)

Plan View

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Plan View

Profile View (Main Branch)

Shas

ta D

am

Kesw

ick

Dam

Keswick Reservoir Model Grid

Model Calibration Shasta Lake and Keswick Reservoir

Calibration Performance metrics: Bias, MAE, RMSE

In-reservoir stage and profile temperatures Outflow water temperature

Period of performance 2010-2016 Future: 2000-2017

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Shasta Lake Model Results: Simulated Outflow

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Shasta Lake Model Results: Simulated Outflow Temperature

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Shasta Lake Model Results: 2015 Profiles

Monthly profiles Initial condition Onset of

stratification Breakdown of

stratification

DRAFT

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SimulatedMeasured

Keswick Reservoir Model Results:Simulated Stage/Storage

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Keswick Reservoir Model Results:Simulated Outflow

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Keswick Reservoir Model Results:Simulated Outflow Temperature

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Keswick Reservoir Model Results:2010 Profiles

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Model Documentation Model Data Model development Model calibration

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Next Steps

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Technical Committee –Ongoing

TCD Refined leakage

representation Update gate operations

Representation of large gates in CE-QUAL-W2

Representing low level intakes on side gate structure

Additional model years 2000-2009, 2017

Updated model calibration Model testing and

application

Discussion

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