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Migration Trends and Outlook 2012/ · PDF file Holiday Schemes (13 per cent), Study to Work Policy (6 per cent), and horticulture and viticulture seasonal work policies (5 per cent)

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    Migration Trends and Outlook 2012/2013

  • Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Hīkina Whakatutuki Lifting to make successful

    MBIE develops and delivers policy, services, advice and regulation to support economic growth and the prosperity and wellbeing of New Zealanders.

    MBIE combines the former Ministries of Economic Development, Science + Innovation, and the Departments of Labour, and Building and Housing.

    ISSN: 1176-8479 December 2013

    © Crown copyright 2013

    Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment PO Box 3705 Wellington New Zealand www.dol.govt.nz www.mbie.govt.nz

    Visit Migration Research, Evaluation and Analysis online at www.dol.govt.nz/research/migration.

    Disclaimer

    The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has made every effort to ensure that the information contained in this report is reliable, but makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness and does not accept any liability for any errors. The information and opinions contained in this report are not intended to be used as a basis for commercial decisions and the Ministry accepts no liability for any decisions made in reliance on them. The Ministry may change, add to, delete from, or otherwise amend the contents of this report at any time without notice.

    The material contained in this report is subject to Crown copyright protection unless otherwise indicated. The Crown copyright protected material may be reproduced free of charge in any format or media without requiring specific permission. This is subject to the material being reproduced accurately and not being used in a derogatory manner or in a misleading context. Where the material is being published or issued to others, the source and copyright status should be acknowledged. The permission to reproduce Crown copyright protected material does not extend to any material in this report that is identified as being the copyright of a third party. Authorisation to reproduce such material should be obtained from the copyright holders.

    www.dol.govt.nz/research/migration

  • Foreword Immigration is a critical economic enabler and contributes to the Government’s Business Growth Agenda. New Zealand can fill skill and labour shortages through effective and efficient immigration policies and processes. Immigration also enables ‘home-grown’ talent to be supplemented and New Zealand’s skill capacity to be enhanced through providing access to global skills and talents.

    This report overviews New Zealand’s migration trends in the 2012/13 financial year. Monitoring migration trends provides a better understanding

    of the wider global environment in which migration takes place, important developments in New Zealand’s key markets, and the impact and success of current immigration policies. Understanding existing and emerging migration trends is also critical for the planning and development of immigration policy settings as well as migrant attraction, settlement and retention initiatives.

    This year’s report highlights the impact significant local and global events have had on migration flows to and from New Zealand. The increase in temporary labour migrants has been mainly due to the Canterbury rebuild, and we expect this growth will lead to an increase in skilled permanent migrants in the short term. International student numbers continued to fall, but the Government’s focus on increasing the value of export education is likely to reverse this trend.

    The Canterbury rebuild is expected to help lift economic and employment growth during 2014 and 2015. That rebuild will increase the demand for specific skills, particularly in the construction industry. In turn, this is likely to increase the demand for migrants with the skills that are not readily found in New Zealand.

    New Zealand’s immigration focus will continue to be on attracting and retaining migrants who contribute economically and settle successfully in New Zealand. Temporary workers and permanent migrants invest their skills and capital; visitors and students bring significant revenues to the tourism and export education sectors. Immigration also plays an important role in building and extending our connections with the rest of the world. Through those connections new ideas, technologies, quality standards, as well as economic and cultural opportunities become available to New Zealanders. In all those ways, our migrants help to drive New Zealand’s economic development.

    Philip Stevens

    Acting General Manager, Research, Evaluation and Analysis

    Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment

    Migration Trends and Outlook 2012/13 i

  • Executive summary This annual report is the 13th in a series that examines trends in temporary and permanent migration to and from New Zealand. The report updates trends to 2012/13 and compares recent immigration patterns with patterns identified in previous years.

    Increase in permanent migration across the OECD

    The OECD is experiencing modest growth in immigration after three consecutive years of decline. Annual migration flows in OECD countries grew by about 2 per cent in 2011 to reach almost 4 million and this upward trend is predicted to continue. However, the international migration picture remains mixed with an increase in immigration but flows remaining significantly below pre-recession levels and temporary labour migration stagnant. In New Zealand, permanent migration and temporary labour migration flows remain below pre-recession levels. Policy developments continued to focus on attracting high-skilled migrants and international students.

    Canterbury rebuild presents challenges and opportunities

    The Canterbury rebuild is expected to help lift economic and employment growth during 2014 and 2015, especially in the Canterbury region. The rebuild will increase the demand for specific skills, particularly in building professions and trades. This is likely to increase the demand for migrants if those skills cannot be readily met from within New Zealand. The number of Essential Skills workers approved in Canterbury has continued to increase since a low in the March 2011 quarter due to the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake and has exceeded pre-recession level.

    Net migration gain in 2012/13 following net loss in 2011/12

    A net migration gain of 7,900 people occurred in 2012/13 following a net migration loss of 3,200 in 2011/12. An increase in arrivals and decrease in departures on a permanent and long-term basis contributed to the overall net gain in 2012/13. Net migration is forecast to improve from around 16,000 in the September 2013 year with the annual net flow expected to exceed 30,000 from mid- 2014.

    Numbers of temporary workers increased across most work categories …

    The total number of people approved for temporary work visas in 2012/13 was up 5 per cent on the previous year with increases across most visa categories. The number of people approved under the Essential Skills Policy increased 2 per cent in 2012/13. This was the first annual increase in Essential Skills workers since the start of the global economic slowdown and reflects the growth in demand in Canterbury. Increases occurred in the number of temporary workers approved under the Working Holiday Schemes (13 per cent), Study to Work Policy (6 per cent), and horticulture and viticulture seasonal work policies (5 per cent).

    … while permanent migration to New Zealand continued to fall

    The New Zealand Residence Programme target for 2011/12 to 2013/14 is 135,000–150,000 places. In 2012/13, 38,961 people were approved a resident visa, down 4 per cent from 40,448 in 2011/12. The largest source countries of permanent migrants to New Zealand were China (15 per cent) and the United Kingdom and India (13 per cent each).

    Migration Trends and Outlook 2012/13 ii

  • India is the largest source of skilled migrants

    In 2012/13, 18,156 people were approved through the Skilled Migrant Category (SMC), which was 47 per cent of all residence approvals. The number of SMC approvals decreased 4 per cent from 2011/12, although the decline was more modest than in previous years. The decrease reflects a flow-on effect from the prior decrease in Essential Skills workers due to the global economic slowdown and subsequent downturn in labour demand. India was the largest source country of skilled migrants (19 per cent) followed by the United Kingdom (15 per cent). The growth in skilled migrants from India is mainly due to an increase in Indian international students transitioning to residence.

    China is the largest source country of family-sponsored migrants

    The Capped and Uncapped Family Streams enable New Zealand citizens and permanent residents to sponsor close family members for residence. In 2012/13, 11,291 people were approved for residence through the Uncapped Family Stream and 4,401 people were approved through the Capped Family Stream. These two streams comprised 40 per cent of all residence approvals. China was the largest source country of residence approvals in both the Uncapped (42 per cent) and Capped (17 per cent) Family Streams.

    Around two-fifths of International/Humanitarian Stream approvals were from Pacific countries

    Over 1,300 people were approved residence through the Samoan Quota Scheme and Pacific Access Category in 2012/13, with Samoa and Tonga being the largest source countries of approvals. In addition to the Pacif