Migration and Household Welfare in Ethiopia

Migration and Household Welfare in EthiopiaLisa Andersson, University of Gothenburg

Katie Kuschminder, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance

Maastricht Graduate School of Governance

Migration and Household Welfare

1. Loss of Labour from household 2. Remittances3. Return Migration:

– Return of Success– Return of Failure


Return Migration and Household Welfare • Less evidence than in the case of

remittances • Human and Social Capital Accumulation• Kilic et al. (2009) found a strong, positive

relation between past (return) migration and non-farm business ownership in Albania- increased for people who did not return from Greece


Remittances and Household Welfare• Macro level- remittances lead to positive economic

growth • Adams and Page, 2005- “a 10% increase in per

capita official international remittances in a developing country will lead to a 3.5% decline in the share of people living on less than $1.00/person/day”

• Hildebrandt and McKenzie, 2004 – children born in international migration households are 3% less likely to die in their first year than children in non-migration households .


Literature Gaps

• Remittances – Little evidence on the household effect in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Still questions as to how return migration affects the household

• Comparability between non-migrant, current migrant, remittance receiving, and return migrant households


Case Study: Ethiopia • Population of 80 million• Emigration rate of 0.4%• Estimated Diaspora

Population of 1-2 Million • Remittances 2010- $0.4

Billion • Remittances estimated at

2.2% of GDP • Diaspora Largely

concentrated in Middle East, North America, and Europe

• Ranks 169 on the HDI


IS Academy Survey: Ethiopia

• 1226 Household Surveys• 15 Sites in 5 regions• Purposive Two-stage Sampling

Strategy – 15 Woredas Selected and 3 Kebeles in

each Woreda Listed

• Random Selection of Households for Enumeration



Descriptive Statistics

All CM HHs

Unique CM HHs

All RR HHs

Unique RR HHs

All RM HHs

Unique RMS HHs

NM HHs

All HHs

n 406 156 271 33 161 121 665 1225

% 33.12 12.72 22.10 2.69 13.13 9.87 54.24 100

Average HH Size

6.3 6 6.2 5 5.7 5.3 4.9 5.4

Urban (n)

161 52 119 15 79 50 211 442

% 39.66 33.33 43.91 45.45 49.07 41.32 31.73 36.08Addis (n) 52 21 39 9 29 19 94 177% 12.81 13.46 14.39 27.27 18.01 15.70 14.14 14.45


Descriptive Statistics All CM HHs

Unique CM HHs

All RR HHs

Unique RR HHs

All RM HHs

Unique RMS HHs

NM HHs

All HHs

HHs with Children (n)

292 108 202 25 122 87 496 906

% 71.92 69.23 74.54 75.76 75.78 71.90 74.59 73.96

Ave No. Of Children

2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6

HHs with Young Children

53 21 38 8 35 29 141 232

% 13.05 13.46 14.02 24.24 21.74 23.97 21.20 18.94

Average No. Of Working Age in HH (18-65)

3.9 3.7 3.8 2.7 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.1

Average No. Of Working Age in HH (14-65)

4.5 4.3 4.4 3.1 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.6


Descriptive Statistics: HH HeadAll CM HHs

Unique CM HHs

All RR HHs

Unique RR HHs

All RM HHs

Unique RMS HHs

NM HHs

All HHs

HH Head Migration Experience

25 10 10 0 90 66 0 115

% 6.16 6.41 3.69 0.00 55.90 54.55 0.00 9.39Years of Education of HH head

4.19 4.2 4.6 6.81 4.47 4.27 4.12 4.25

Age of HH Head

54.43 52 53.9 45.36 51.65 49.07 47.83 50.04

Female HH Head

147 52 102 10 46 26 217 403

% 36.21 33.33 37.64 30.30 28.57 21.49 32.63 32.90HH Head Farmer

141 60 84 8 54 44 237 431

% 34.73 38.46 31.00 24.24 33.54 36.36 35.64 35.18HH Head Employed

46 25 31 8 13 10 119 185

% 11.33 16.03 11.44 24.24 8.07 8.26 17.89 15.10


Migration Destination and Remittances

Migration Destination

Number of Migrants Remittances (Birr, past 12 months)

Middle East 231 (45.5%) 6803

Africa 102 (20.1%) 3585

Europe 34 (6.7%) 14203

North America 106 (20.9%) 15129

Other 21 (4.2%) -

Total 494 14520


Coefficient Standard Deviation Size** .2664753 .072892

Children** -.2179473 .0681162

Youngchild -.1148455 .1293661

Workingage2 -.063594 .0651691

Urban** .364238 .1369023

Primary .0448762 .1839283

Secondary -.0151668 .2203479

Higher -.0072896 .3261758

Eduyear .0181983 .016052

Headage .0010577 .0039869

Gender -.2083357 .1168207

Employed** -.4072034 .1695413

Business** -.6038059 .1612211

Agricultural -.1565729 .1503318

Housework -.2485482 .1627678

Amhara .2276191 .1673608

Tigray .3047105 .1703395

SNNP** .3927394 .1856166

Oromiya** .3417249 .1670741

_cons -1.75596 .2790979


Coefficient Standard Deviation

Size** .2503439 .0709807

Children** -.2021814 .0666013

Youngchild -.113646 .1264231

Workingage2 -.0421193 .0634013

Urban** .2607733 .1112215

Primary -.0549576 .1807062

Secondary -.0199543 .2141086

Higher -.0592852 .3167139

Eduyear .0132747 .0154802

Headage -.0015558 .0037794

Employed** -.5191225 .1541103

Business** -.6714826 .1499707

Agricultural -.2949744 .1230465

Housework -.2973032 .1539694


Coefficient Standard Deviation Size** .2523373 .0716462Children** -.2113543 .0670449youngchild -.1125477 .1265045workingage2 -.0485789 .0643349Urban** .4106147 .1336053primary -.0535971 .1825746secondary -.003845 .2172137higher .0051831 .3192276eduyear .0121978 .0156656headage -.001866 .0038501employed -.5212362 .1547323Business** -.6995102 .1515461Agricultural** -.2919443 .129485Housework** -.3165302 .1554764Amhara .2275308 .1619091Tigray* .2936102 .1659209

SNNP** .4208115 .1819743Oromiya* .3117498 .162207


Discussion

• Probability to remit is:– More likely if have large household size– Less likely if have children– More likely if live in an Urban Area– Less likely if the HH Head has employment– Less likely if the HH Head owns their own

business


Next Steps

• Propensity Score Matching:– Remittance Receiving Households to Non-

Migrant HHs– Question regarding Return Migration

• Look further at the effect of migration on welfare using food expenditure per capita or per adult equivalent

• Comparability between the different groups


Thank you!

[email protected]

[email protected]

Documents

Migration and Household Welfare in Ethiopia