Mid-Columbia Workforce Housing Summit

April 6, 2007

Government, Agriculture, Tourism…

Mid-Columbia 2005 Employment and Payroll

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

Government

Agriculture

Leisure and Hospitality

Retail Trade

Educational and Health

Manufacturing

Professional and Business

Construction, NR & Mining

Wholesale Trade

Other Services

Financial Activities

Transportation, WH & Utilities

Information

Payroll

Employment

Employment and Payroll outlook… uneven

Mid-Columbia 2005 Top Industries

21.4%

15.0%

12.4%11.3% 10.8%

8.1%

28.3%

9.6%6.4%

9.4%11.8%

9.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Government Agriculture,Forestry,

Fishing, andHunting

Leisure andHospitality

Retail Trade Educationaland HealthServices

Manufacturing

Employment Payroll

Agriculture is a much bigger industry…

2005 Top Industries: Employment

21.4%

15.0%12.4% 11.3% 10.8%

8.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Government Agriculture,Forestry,

Fishing, andHunting

Leisure andHospitality

Retail Trade Educationaland HealthServices

Manufacturing

Mid-Columbia

Oregon

Washington

Health Services a plus… Tourism not so much…

2005 Top Industries: Payroll

28.3%

11.8%9.6% 9.5% 9.4% 8.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Government Educationaland HealthServices

Agriculture,Forestry,

Fishing, andHunting

Manufacturing Retail Trade Professionaland Business

Services

Mid-Columbia

Oregon

Washington

The Real Wage Free Fall… stuck on $26,000

Real Wages - 2005 Dollars

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Mid-Columbia

Oregon

Washington

Personal Income Growth Slows… Rebounds…

Oregon & Washington Personal Income Growth, 1990 - 2006

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1990.1 1992.1 1994.1 1996.1 1998.1 2000.1 2002.1 2004.1 2006.1

Oregon PI Growth

Washington PI Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Recent History Not So Bad…

Oregon, Washington & Mid-Columbia Personal Income Growth, 1990 - 2006

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1990.1 1992.1 1994.1 1996.1 1998.1 2000.1 2002.1 2004.1 2006.1

Mid-Columbia

Oregon PI Growth

Washington PI Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Falling Behind Over the Long Haul…

Oregon, Washington & Mid-Columbia Personal Income Growth - Inflation Adjusted, 1976 - 2006

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

76-1 78-1 80-1 82-1 84-1 86-1 88-1 90-1 92-1 94-1 96-1 98-1 00-1 02-1 04-1 06-1

Mid-ColumbiaOregonWashington

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Home Price Appreciation Peaks – Falls…but how far

Oregon & Washington HPI Growth, 1990 - 2006

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1990.1 1992.1 1994.1 1996.1 1998.1 2000.1 2002.1 2004.1 2006.1

Oregon HPI

Washington HPI

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

Oregon’s Home Price and Income Gap

The Gap Between Oregon Home Price Appreciation and Income Growth Widened

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1990.1 1992.1 1994.1 1996.1 1998.1 2000.1 2002.1 2004.1 2006.1

HPI Growth

Personal Income Growth

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

Washington’s Home Price and Income Gap

The Gap Between Washington Home Price Appreciation and Income Growth Widened

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1990.1 1992.1 1994.1 1996.1 1998.1 2000.1 2002.1 2004.1 2006.1

HPI Growth

PI Growth

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

Building Permit Activity at Record LevelMid-Columbia Building Permit Activity: 1993 - 2006

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Multi UnitSingle Unit

Growth in Every Corner of the Mid-Columbia Mid-Columbia Building Permit Activity: 1993 - 2006

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Wasco

Skamania

Klickitat

Hood River

The 10-Year Outlook… 3,753 PermitsMid-Columbia Building Permit Activity: 1997 - 2006

Hood River1,606

Klickitat1,032

Skamania725

Wasco390

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1997 - 2006

Manufactured Housing Far More Important than Multi-Family Housing in the Mid-Columbia

Mobile/Manufactured Housing Reportedby the 2000 Census

17.2%

14.2%

30.2%

20.9%

19.2%

10.3%

8.5%

23.5%

24.5%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

Gilliam

Hood River

Sherman

Wasco

Wheeler

Oregon

Washington

Klickitat

Skamania

Apartments, Condos or Town Houses?2006 Residential Building Permits by Unit Type

76.4%69.8%

94.9%

23.6%30.2%

5.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oregon Washington Mid-Columbia

Multi Unit

Single Unit

Second Home Owners?2006 Residential Building Permits per 1,000 Residents

5.6 5.5

6.7

1.72.4 0.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Oregon Washington Mid-Columbia

Multi Unit

Single Unit

A Bargain No Matter the Price?

2006 Median Home Prices on the Oregon Side of the The Mid-Columbia Region

$75,300

$170,000

$184,000

$255,500

$296,000

$299,800

$311,100

$426,000

$437,300

$200,000

$0 $50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Sherman County

The Dalles

Cascade Locks

Odell

Parkdale/Mt.Hood

Hood River City

Mosier

Hood River-Westside

Hood River-Eastside

Mid-Columbia

Reaching from the West…

2006 Median Home Prices on the Oregon Side of the Mid-Columbia Region

$75,300

$170,000

$184,000

$255,500

$296,000

$299,800

$311,100

$426,000

$437,300

$200,000

$0 $50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Sherman County

The Dalles

Cascade Locks

Odell

Parkdale/Mt.Hood

Hood River City

Mosier

Hood River-Westside

Hood River-Eastside

Mid-Columbia

How Much Income Do I Need?

Annual Household Income Needed to Afford a Median Priced Home in The Mid-Columbia

$16,031

$36,192

$54,395

$63,826

$63,017

$90,694

$42,579

$10,000 $25,000 $40,000 $55,000 $70,000 $85,000 $100,000

Sherman County

The Dalles

Odell

Hood River City

Parkdale/Mt.Hood

Hood River-Westside

Mid-Columbia

The Other Side of the Mirror…

Annual Household Income Needed to Afford a Median Priced Home in The Mid-Columbia

$23,206

$38,385

$44,708

$57,227

$75,898

$42,579

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000

Goldendale

Dallesport/Murdock

Lyle

Whie Salmon/Bingen

Stevenson

Mid-Columbia

A Growing Income Gap…

Median Household Income and Affordability Gap

$34,105

$38,531

$38,531

$38,531

$38,531

$15,864

$25,295

$24,486

$52,163

$2,087

$0

$1

0,0

00

$2

0,0

00

$3

0,0

00

$4

0,0

00

$5

0,0

00

$6

0,0

00

$7

0,0

00

$8

0,0

00

$9

0,0

00

$1

00

,00

0

The Dalles

Odell

Hood River City

Parkdale/Mt.Hood

Hood River-Westside

Median IncomeIncome Gap

Getting Priced Out of Paradise…

Median Household Income and Affordability Gap

$36,014

$36,014

$36,014

$36,014

$40,216

$21,213

$35,682

$2,371

$8,694

$0 $10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Goldendale

Dallesport/Murdock

Lyle

Whie Salmon/Bingen

Stevenson

Median IncomeIncome Gap

Questions?

Dallas Fridley, Regional Economist

Oregon Employment Department

Workforce and Economic Research

(541) 386-6020 x 238

Dallas.W.Fridley@state.or.us