Michigan Department of

Corrections UpdateOctober 11, 2017

Population Update

As of the 9/28/17 Weekly Population Census, the MDOC’s prison

population had declined to 39,987.

This is the first weekly census to show a population of under 40,000

in over 20 years.

The population has declined by 1,165 prisoners since the start of the

year (2.8%).

The population has declined by 3,352 prisoners since July of 2015,

when the “Offender Success” model was developed (7.7%)

39,000

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

53,000

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Nu

mb

er

End of Month

Michigan Department of Corrections

ACTUAL AND PROJECTED PRISON POPULATION

Actual Prison Population 02/2017 Prison Population Projection

3

The population projection developed in February anticipated a slowing decline then

stability as a baseline forecast absent any new initiatives.

Population Projection vs. Actual Population

Month February

Projection

Actual Population Difference

March 40,836 40,929 +93

June 40,677 40,338 -339

September 40,494 39,987 -507

December 40,299 ?? ??

54,48255,545 56,155

59,35760,177

58,113

55,592

53,422

50,862 50,641 50,81749,201

47,480 47,347 47,453

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017**

Michigan Department of Corrections

Total Felony Court Dispositions (Offenders)

**2017 figure is data through May extrapolated to full year.5

Front End Impact: After peaking in 2007, annual felony court dispositions showed a slow

downward trend for nine years. Through mid-year, the trend since 2015 is relatively stable.

21.9%

20.3%20.9%

21.7%

20.7%

19.4% 19.3%

20.3% 20.2%20.7%

21.6% 21.7% 21.5%21.0%

19.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017**

Michigan Department of Corrections

Prison Commitment Rate*

* The prison commitment rate is the percentage of all felony court dispositions that are sentenced to prison.

** 2017 data through May.

6

Front End Impact: Through May, the prison commitment rate continues to

remain in a fairly narrow, 19-22%, range since 2003.

3,333

3,479

4,228

3,706

3,494 3,481

3,643

3,359

2,850

2,632

2,481 2,507

2,6342,705

2,556

2,405

2,2492,146

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017**

Michigan Department of Corrections

Probation Violator Intake*

* Includes probation technical violators and probationers with a new sentence.

7

** 2017 data through June extrapolated to full year.

Front End Impact: Probation violator intake has decreased from 2002 and data through

June suggests a continuing decline for this year to a nearly 50% decline since 2002.

9,169

9,5849,424

8,809 8,922

9,610

11,050

10,311

9,811

10,241

11,094

10,705

9,715

9,2959,158

8,7568,882

9,2378,983

8,664

8,085

7,736

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017**

Michigan Department of Corrections

Prison Intake*

*Includes new court commitments, probation violators (technical or new sentence), parole violators new sentence, and escapee new sentence.

8

Front End Impact: Annual prison intake decreased by 21% from 2007 to 2011 and then

increased for 2 years. Through June, the decline since 2013 appears to be continuing.

** 2017 data through June extrapolated to full year.

9

47.046.1

48.949.9 49.2 48.7

50.148.7 48.7

50.148.7

44.042.6

44.0

41.943.2

42.2

44.1 43.7

45.4

49.648.6

47.5

49.9

51.7 52.251.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Michigan Department of Corrections

Prison Intake by Average Cumulative Minimum Term in Months

Impact on Length of Stay: The average minimum term shows the influence of the surge in

13-24 month minimums in the 2000’s and the consistency of the 61+ month minimums.

68.2%

64.6%

61.1%

63.3%

57.4%

55.0%

57.9%

55.3%

51.3% 51.5%

47.3% 47.7%48.4%

51.8% 51.5%

54.7%

51.7%52.5%

58.1%

62.4%

55.9%

65.5% 65.0%

67.6%

65.1%

68.0%

71.2% 71.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017**

Michigan Department of Corrections

Parole Approval Rate

** 2017 data is through June.

10

Impact on Length of Stay: The parole approval rate was fairly stable for 2011-2015.

Last year the rate edged up a bit and appears stable through June.

9,078

9,465

8,758

10,506

9,682

9,133

10,001

10,697

11,752

11,344

10,284 10,240

12,429

11,557

13,542

12,138

11,162

9,361

10,554

10,110 10,019

10,601

9,798

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017**

Michigan Department of Corrections

Moves to Parole

11

Impact on Releases: After a record high in 2009, moves to parole have declined. Data

through June, suggests there will be less paroles this year, this number lags PB decisions.

** 2017 data through June extrapolated to full year.

45.744.9

43.5

41.9

39.3 39.1

40.8 40.6

36.5

33.2

31.530.6

29.0

30.331.0

29.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Michigan Department of Corrections

Return to Prison Rate*

* Only includes cases that were returned on upheld Technical Violations or for a New Sentence within three years of release.

12

Impact on Returns: Since establishing the baseline for recidivism in 1998, there has

been continuing improvement with a fairly stable rate in the 29%-32% range since 2008.

890

1,033

1,2881,345

1,259

1,1661,195

1,441

1,644

1,802

1,879

2,0201,985

2,0251,970

1,794

1,525

1,406 1,393

1,267

1,1591,105

1,036

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017**

Michigan Department of Corrections

Parole Violator New Sentence Intake

13

Impact on Returns: Through June, the parole violator new sentence intake

appears to continue its decline for the ninth year.

** 2017 data through June extrapolated to full year.

1,916

2,577

2,668

3,1103,186

3,111

3,2363,289

2,161

3,013

2,859

3,157

2,094

1,878

2,127

2,373

1,893

2,698

2,020

1,686

1,854

1,958

1,690

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017**

Michigan Department of Corrections

Parole Technical Violator Returns to Prison

14

** 2017 data through June extrapolated to full year.

Impact on Returns: Through June, the parole violator tech

returns appears to be returning to twenty year lows.

After reaching a peak population of just over 2,300 in

early 2016, the female prison population has declined by

over 120 prisoners (5%).

Even with this decline, the female prisoner population is

212 (10.7%) larger than it was 5 years ago.

The MDOC continues to focus on the creation of a Gender-

Informed “Offender Success” model to better assist this

population.

Female Prison Population Update

Handlon Vocational Village Update

• The Handlon Vocational Village continues to produce

“graduates” who are returning to their communities.

• The current post incarceration employment rate for Villagers is

68%, or about twice that of normal parolees.

• We continue to promote the Village and speak to employers

about the benefits of hiring returning citizens.

• With the launch of the Parnall Vocational Village, the focus of

this locations has shifted to West Michigan.

Parnall Vocational Village Update

• The Parnall Vocational Village opened this summer and should

start producing its first graduates in the next 9-12 months.

• The facility has programs in CNC Machining, Robotics,

Commercial Truck Driving, Fork Lift/Warehousing, Auto

Mechanics, Cement/Masonry, and Building Trades.

• The facility still has additional space to add 1 or 2 additional

disciplines based on employer needs.

• The Parnall Vocational Village is focused on offenders returning

to southeast Michigan and has a capacity of roughly 220

“Villagers”.

WRAP (Residential Alternative to Prison) Update

• The WRAP at DRC continues to divert high risk probation

violators away from long prison sentences.

• The custody-based cognitive and vocational program serves

Wayne County Offenders.

• 280 probationers have participated in the program and 228 have

successfully completed it.

• The MDOC is finalizing the RFP for programming at the new

“Westside WRAP”, which should launch in January.

FY ‘18 Updates

• The MDOC is finalizing the RFP for an Online High School Degree

Pilot.

• The Pilot will focus on 3 MDOC sites and the RFP should be issued

in the next few weeks.

• The MDOC now has Offender Success Administrative Agencies on

performance-based contracts providing reentry services to every

county in the state.

• The MDOC is developing new programs under the Regional

Supervision Incentive Program that will launch this year.