MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Fuentes privadas de Informacion RIESGO-PAIS IFI, Coface, MOODYs… ESAN- Julio de 2007

MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c)

Fuentes privadas de InformacionRIESGO-PAIS

IFI, Coface, MOODY’s…

ESAN- Julio de 2007


Análisis de Riesgo-País

El riesgo siempre está vinculado a la incertidumbre, que está directamente relacionada con un flujo inadecuado o

insuficiente de informacióninformación

“Los países no se van a la quiebra!”

Walter Wriston, Presidente de Citibank, 1982 « El riesgo se establece en el hecho que la gente no

sabe lo que está haciendo», Warren Buffet


Mayores fuentes de información sobre el riesgo-país

FUENTES DE DATOSFUENTES DE DATOS

BilateralBilateral Multilateral/IFIsMultilateral/IFIs Banca Internacional Banca Internacional Agencias de créditoAgencias de crédito a las exportacionesa las exportaciones

Centros de Centros de InvestigaciónInvestigación

Fuentes oficialesFuentes oficiales Fuentes privadasFuentes privadas

Club de ParisClub de ParisBancos centralesBancos centrales

Agencias del gobiernoAgencias del gobierno

FMIFMI

Banco MundialBanco MundialBPIBPI

OECDOECDUNCTADUNCTAD

UNDPUNDP

Bancos de InversiónBancos de InversiónIIFIIF

Rating de agenciasRating de agenciasThinktanksThinktanks

IIEIIEEIUEIU

EuromoneyEuromoneyGlobal FinanceCIROP-ESAN

COFACECOFACEHermesHermes

DucroireDucroireECGDECGD


Fuentes de información global macroeconomica y financiera

Fuentes OfficialFuentes Official1 . Fuentes Multilaterales IMF World Bank BIS, OECD RDBs

2. Fuentes Officiales bilaterales Country governments (CBs, CIA) ACEs (DREE, Hermes, Eximbank,

ECGD)

Fuentes PrivadasFuentes Privadas1. Insurance agencies

(Coface, OPIC)2. Research institutes (IIE,

IIF)3. Thinktanks (Cato,

Heritage, Freedom House)

4. Magazines (Euromoney…)

5. Academic centers (Global Finance…)

6. Rating agencies (S&Ps)


Specialized country risk analysis institutions

IIF (Washington) IIE (Washington) EIU (London) Global Finance-CERAM BERI (Business Environment Risk Index) Dun and Bradstreet, Moody ’s, S & P, Fitch IBCA Institutional Investor, Euromoney Frost & Sullivan Transparency International Heritage Foundation, Davos-WEF, Cato Institute, IMD, AT

Kearney…


1. The Institute of International Finance (IIF)


The Institute for International Finance (IIF)

El IIF es una institución financiera global con más de 320 miembros de más de 60 países.

Las oficinas se encuentran en Washington, DC. Fue creado en 1983 en respuesta a la crisis de deuda internacional por 38 bancos de países industrializados.

Más de la mitad de sus miembros son instituciones financieras con base en Europa. Proporciona a los bancos miembros con un análisis del riesgo-pais, económico y financiero en países con mercados emergentes.

También sirve como foro de discusión con Gobiernos del Club de Pais y IFIs.


Miembros bancarios de America Latina en el IFI en 2006

Mexico Banco Azteca S.A.BBVA BancomerGrupo Financiero BanamexGrupo Financiero Banorte

Argentina Banco GaliciaBanco Hipotecario, S.A.BanexMBA Banco de Inversiones

Colombia BancolombiaBanco Davivienda S.A.

Brazil Banco BBA Creditanstalt, S.A.Banco Bradesco, S.A.Banco Central do BrasilBanco do Brasil, S.A.Banco Itau, S.A.Banco Pactual S.A.Banco Santos S.A.Banque SudamerisCaixa Economica FederalUnibanco-União de Bancos Brasileiros S/A


The Institute for International Finance

Crecimiento del PIB Real % Cambia de demanda doméstica % Cambio en X % Cambio en M % PIB deflador Producción Industrial % Producción Agricultural % Términos de intercambio % Tipo de cambio Tasa de cambio Nominal efectiva Tasa de cambio Real efectiva % Balanza comercial


The Institute for International Finance

Balanza de cuenta corriente Financiamiento Externo E&Os Cambio en reservas internacionales Deuda Externa Servicio de Deuda Externa Indicadores de Liquidez Indicadores de Solvencia Estructura del comercio


The IIF – el IFI

The IIF has three primary goals: * to support members’ risk management,

asset allocation, and business development in emerging markets.

* forum for engaging the private financial community in discussions with offical national and international institutions.

* to provide a vehicle for exchanging views on international financial supervision issues with regulatory authorities.


The Institute of International Finance(El IFI)

Activities fall broadly into three areas: (1)analyzing risks in emerging market

economies; (2)serving as a forum for member firms on

key policy issues in emerging markets finance and regulatory matters; and

(3)promoting collaboration between members and multilateral financial institutions.


El IFITwo primary goals beyond that of serving as a discussion forum: 1. To support members’ risk management, asset allocation, risk management, asset allocation,

and business development in emerging marketsand business development in emerging markets. To this end, the IIF provides members with reliable data and analysis of economic and financial developments and prospects;

2. To provide economic intelligence on emerging market economic intelligence on emerging market economieseconomies: The IIF has established a robust reputation for the quality of its macroeconomic and financial analysis of risks in emerging markets and for its database. In addition to coverage of individual economies, the Institute publishes reports on regional and global financial issues.

www.iif.org


IIF’s Outlook of Peru 05/2007


El IFI y el analisis macroeconomico del PERU

Balanza comercial y cuenta corriente 1978-2008

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Trade Balance

Current Account Balance


IIF: Analisis de la deuda exterior del PERU (05/2007)


El tipo de cambio del Nuevo Sol


2. COFACE(Compagnie Française d’Assurance pour le Commerce

Extérieur) The Coface Group facilitates and secures trade

throughout the world. The Group offers more than 78,000 companies - whether large or small, whatever their business and wherever they are - a range of solutions spanning rating, protection and services, including country risk data and analysis.

Country risk analysis is expressed in a rating/ranking format but based on a qualitative analysis aimed at integrating the socio-political and economic specificities of each country.


COFACE

6 elementos clave de componentes de riesgo:

1. Political risk;

2. liquidity and non-transfer risk;

3. sovereign risk;

4. market crisis risk;

5. systemic banking crisis;

6. macroeconomic growth risk. www.coface.org


COFACE’s Outlook of PERU

Country Rating: B Speculative Grade « An unsteady political and economic

environment is likely to affect further an already poor payment record ». (07/2007)


COFACE: Fuentes de vulnerabilidad en el PERU (07/2007)

Vulnerability to exogenous shocks, a downturn of world raw material prices, and weather conditions.

Economic dualism has persisted with a relatively modern sector in the coastal plains and a subsistence sector inland.

The external debt ratios, although declining, are still high. Although the banking system has been gaining strength, the

high degree of dollarisation could jeopardise its stability. The gulf between the government's pragmatic policies and

the aspirations of a population largely excluded from the positive effects of growth still constitutes a major risk


PERU: Indice de atrasos de pagos 1997-2007 (base 100= 1995)

COFACE


ECONOMIC INTELIGENCE UNIT-LONDRES

EIU’s Outlook of Peru Overall Rating = C Political Risk = D

« With steady economic growth and rising employment, the government does not appear to be at risk ».

Forecast : « losing ground because of less efficient political institutions and some likely populist legislation ».


Riesgo crediticio Riesgo crediticio y grado de inversiy grado de inversióónn

Moody's S & P

Investment Grade Ratings

AaaAaA

Baa

AAAAAA

BBB

Below Investment Grade("Junk Bond")

BaB

CaaCaC

BBB

CCCCCC

In Default D

« caracter especulativo »


ARGENTINA

VENEZUELA

COLOMBIA

BRASIL

PERU

MEXICO

CHILE

Grado de Inversión

B

BB-

BB

BB

BB+

BBB

A

Fuente: S&P

S&P COUNTRY RATING (JUNIO 2007)


Country Foreign

Currency Rating

1998-2002

20021998-2002

20021998-2002

20021998-2002

20021998-2002

20021998-2002

20021998-2002

2002

Korea BBB+ 42 19 81 61 20 -11 21 -10 6 -18 1.8 0.8 1.8 0.8 China BBB 73 69 65 50 -33 -42 -32 -41 -41 -46 8.6 8.6 (0.9) (1.5) Malaysia BBB 46 40 43 40 5 -1 8 2 -8 -9 5.4 5.4 2.0 2.0 Oman BBB -25 -45 76 64 -19 -39 -1 -19 -29 -53 6.1 5.5 2.0 3.5 Mexico BBB- 180 181 136 116 70 50 93 74 41 29 11.8 11.1 7.3 5.5 Slovak Republic BBB- 45 49 75 64 21 13 30 21 2 1 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 South Africa BBB- 40 35 103 109 47 28 66 54 38 37 9.1 9.7 4.8 2.7 Thailand BBB- 80 46 120 99 60 33 62 36 2 3 3.4 0.0 3.4 0.0

Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Debt Data

Publication date: 24-Apr-2002

Sovereign Risk Indicators: External Debt Data Net External Liabilities/

Gross External Debt/ Exports

Net External Debt/ Exports

Narrow Net External Debt/

Net Public- Sector External

Net Investment Payments/

Net Interest Payments/

3. Fuente de Informacion: Standard & Poor’s


COLOMBIA

BRASIL

PERU

MEXICO

CHILE

MOODY´S COUNTRY RATING (JUNIO 2007)

Grado de Inversión

Fuente: Scotiabank

PERU

Baa1

Baa1

Ba2

Ba3

Ba3

COLOMBIA

PERU


El analisis del Peru por Moody’s 06/2006


El analisis del Peru por Moody’s 06/2006


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

oct 1999

sep 2000

nov 2000

abr 2001

abr 2002

ago 2002

oct 2003

jun 2004

nov 2004

nov 2005

jun 2007

BB- BB

Grado de Inversión

PERU: FITCH RATING 1999 - 2007

Fuente: Fitch Sovereign Ratings BBB

PPK

BB+

Documents

MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Fuentes privadas de Informacion RIESGO-PAIS IFI, Coface, MOODYs… ESAN- Julio de 2007