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Mexico Kidnapping Assessment 2014 - 2015

Produced by: Nicole Elliott Special Risks Analyst

Crisis Management Assistance Advice – Support - Response

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Contents Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………Page 3 Background………………………………………………………………………………………………Page 4 Reporting and data verification issues……………………………………………………………..Page 5 General KRE characteristics and dynamics……………………………………………………….Page 5

2014 in review: The state of kidnapping in Mexico……………………………………………….Page 8

Looking ahead: Forecasting changes in the kidnapping environment in 2015……………Page 10

Outlook for 2015: KRE trends and dynamics…………………………………………………….Page 12 Extortion and non-traditional kidnapping variants……………………………………………...Page 13 Outlook for 2015: Extortion and non-traditional kidnapping variants……………………….Page 16

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Introduction

red24 rates Mexico as a high-risk operating environment due to numerous security threats, including drug cartel-related violence, crime and kidnapping for ransom and extortion (KRE). Kidnapping, in its variant forms, presents a significant security risk to locals and foreign nationals across the country. Kidnapping has remained a constant feature of the country’s security environment for decades; however, the nature of the threat continues to evolve in terms of scope and scale. According to official government statistics released in January, 1,394 kidnappings took place countrywide in 2014. Although this indicates a purported decrease following the 1,698 incidents in 2013, numbers are still far higher than 2007, when 438 abductions were reported. In addition, the legitimacy of this decrease has been questioned by various non-governmental kidnapping monitoring groups since the figures were released. The geographical spread of kidnapping has evolved over the past 14 months. While the trend of a gradual centralisation of the areas of highest risk in a few central states has continued, there have been notable drops in incident rates in several traditional kidnapping hotspots.

Following an upsurge in extortion incidents in recent years, 5,775 incidents were recorded countrywide in 2014. Like kidnapping, these figures indicate a downturn in incidents since 2013, when 8,196 were recorded. Nonetheless, although overall extortion figures were also subject to a purported decrease in 2014, the number of states where the threat from extortion is considered elevated, increased. Non-traditional kidnapping variants, such as express and virtual kidnappings, continued to impact local and foreign nationals in urban centres.

red24 anticipates that Mexico will continue to rank among the world’s worst kidnapping-affected countries in 2015. The threat to foreign travelers will remain elevated, especially to persons conducting longer- term travel in high-risk areas. In addition, with many multinational companies maintaining or pursuing an extensive operational presence as well as large local employee bases in Mexico, KRE will present a credible security risk to both local and foreign employees and business operations.

Please find below an overview of the current kidnapping situation in Mexico; this is aimed at providing insight into some of the key kidnapping trends and dynamics identified by red24 as holding the potential to affect individuals, employees and business interests in Mexico in the coming months.

Unless otherwise noted, the official figures that are graphically illustrated in this report are sourced from official government reports released by the Executive Secretariat of the National System of Public Safety (PNSP). Due to data reporting and other issues, these figures can safely be assumed to be substantially lower than the actual number of kidnappings in the country.

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Background

Kidnapping has remained one of the most prominent national security issues in Mexico since the 1970s. A manifestation of widespread political unrest a decade earlier, kidnapping was initially used as a tactic by the militant wings of marginalised political groupings. Such groups orchestrated kidnappings as both an income-generating tactic and a means to elicit political concessions. Although a significant reduction in politically motivated kidnappings characterised the 1990s transitional period, an upsurge in the kidnapping activities of organised crime groups quickly became apparent.

Successful security operations by Mexican security agencies led to a decline in kidnappings from 1997; however, incident figures surged again in 2006; this was in response to government offensives initiated by former president, Felipe Calderon, against criminal gangs. Although Calderon experienced some success in targeting kidnapping groups, unforeseen ramifications included an upsurge in violence between 2008 and 2011; during this period, the country’s homicide rate purportedly rose from 13,155 in 2008 to 22,853 in 2011. In addition, organised crime groups increasingly adopted KRE as an operational tactic.

Calderon’s successor, President Enrique Pena Nieto’s election campaign was, to a large degree, built on instituting new military, political and socio-political strategies to combat the rampant violence and high kidnapping levels. During his first year in office in 2013, Nieto’s strategy appeared to be gaining momentum with the 22 February 2014 arrest of kingpin of the Sinaloa drug cartel, Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman. The creation of a National Gendarmerie Division in 2014 was also touted as a key development for improving security in Mexico. However, security-related developments from mid-2014 onwards, including the much publicised abduction and murder of 43 students in Guerrero state, placed increasing pressure on Nieto’s regime to take further action against criminal kidnapping perpetrators and drug cartels in Mexico. Nieto has since submitted a new ‘ten-point security plan’ to congress; this strategy is aimed at overhauling municipal policing forces, and replacing them with state security personnel. Should this plan be approved and implemented, it will play a significant role in determining the threat level posed by kidnapping over the coming year.

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Reporting and data verification challenges

Although the Mexican government regularly releases official crime and kidnapping statistics, it is generally accepted that these figures fail to accurately represent the actual threat level on the ground. The widely accepted poor reporting rate remains a key issue in tracking and assessing kidnapping and extortion trends in Mexico. Due to the nature of the security environment, and factors such as poor law enforcement and judicial systems, as well as perceptions of police/bureaucratic corruption/collusion and retaliation, the vast majority of kidnappings are not reported to police. According to some non-governmental kidnap-monitoring groups, less than 30 percent of all kidnappings are reported; other groups state that official statistics only reflect approximately ten percent of all incidents.

There are numerous non-governmental agencies in Mexico which report on the extent of kidnappings in the country. Although government statistics are based on recorded kidnapping incidents (where cases have been opened with police), other agencies compile data using anecdotal and survey-based evidence as well. Their methodologies vary, and what is defined as kidnapping differs from agency to agency. As a result, there are big discrepancies between kidnapping figures provided by government and non-governmental sources, and between the various non-governmental agencies themselves. The methodology used in compiling official and unofficial data on kidnapping presents a further challenge. In the case of government statistics, kidnappings that result in deaths are listed as homicides. Although official data includes, but does not distinguish between, economic kidnapping (abductions for financial advantage) and political/ideological kidnapping (abductions for political concessions), other forms of the crime are excluded; these include custodial, tiger, express and virtual kidnappings. Taking the above-mentioned factors into account, non-governmental estimates for total kidnappings per annum range from 2,000 to 100,000 cases. When looking at these numbers from an operational perspective, it is worth noting that a high percentage of kidnappings in Mexico are not financially motivated and are thus far less likely to affect recreational travel or business operations. The statistics quoted in this report are, unless otherwise specified, those of the Mexican government. In a country like Mexico, where the underreporting rate is so high, a full incident count per year would be impossible to formulate. Despite the shortfalls in using government statistics, they form a consistent and, thus, effective baseline from which to identify changes in kidnapping characteristics in the country. Analysing annual changes, both on a state-by-state- and month-by-month basis, allows us to assess and forecast kidnapping trends; these are arguably more valuable accurate absolute figures.

General KRE characteristics and dynamics

Geographical spread Mexico’s high kidnapping threat extends countrywide; however, risk levels and incident rates are subject to significant location-specific variations. On a state level, the kidnapping risk is currently most elevated in the central states of Morelos, Mexico and Guerrero, and the eastern coastal states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. In broad terms, the risk of being kidnapped is highest in urban centres, with the vast majority of incidents taking place in and on the outskirts of major cities. Kidnappings do occur in rural areas; however, the risk is generally assessed to be lower in comparison to towns and cities.

Incident Snapshot: On 26 September 2014, 43 male student teachers disappeared in Iguala, Guerrero state. The students, who were from the rural teacher training college, Escuela Normal Rural de Ayotzinapa, went missing after reportedly clashing with police during an anti-government protest in Iguala. Local officials, including the mayor and his wife, allegedly colluded with a criminal gang, known as Guerreros Unidos, to orchestrate their abduction and subsequent execution in nearby Cocula. To this date, their bodies have not been found. Corruption among security force members is a pervasive problem in Mexico; members of the police as well as local government officials are known to collude with cartels and organised crime gangs.

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Perpetrators: Motives and tactics Criminal entities remain the primary perpetrators of kidnapping in Mexico, with the threat stemming from organised crime groups and syndicates, as well as opportunistic gangs. The most significant threat stems from sophisticated criminal groups that operate on a localised level and focus specifically on kidnapping as their primary modus operandi. These established groups are able to leverage control and influence within the local security environment, including co-opting local police and government officials into their criminal agendas. Non-professional, often opportunistic criminal elements, as well as those with a direct connection to the victim, account for a further proportion of cases, while the role of corrupt law enforcement officials is also assumed in a significant number of kidnappings; as many as 20 percent of cases are believed to involve some direct link to law enforcement personnel. A secondary kidnapping threat stems from transnational criminal organisations (TCOs), such as the country’s major drug cartels, which maintain a presence in most Mexican states. Although kidnapping for ransom and other motivations is an established tactic of cartels and drug-trafficking groups, fewer than 30 percent of kidnapping cases feature direct TCO involvement. Victims Arguably as important as the specific geographic security environment, the individual risk profile of the kidnap victim plays a key role in the incident itself and, in many instances, the potential outcome. The vast majority of kidnapping victims in Mexico are locals; a substantial and underreported number of victims also comprise immigrants. These individuals are abducted for relatively small ransom amounts, prostitution or human trafficking on their way to the US from Guatemala and other Central American countries. Foreign nationals (excluding US-bound immigrants from Central America) are estimated to comprise less than 7 percent of the total number of kidnapping cases. TCOs and organised kidnapping gangs are believed to be hesitant to explicitly target such individuals, as they provoke increased law enforcement and media attention as well as a potentially greater risk of capture and higher penalties. Nonetheless, foreigners in Mexico still face an elevated threat, and are affected by kidnapping. In fact, according to a report released by the FBI in December 2014, at least 199 US nationals were kidnapped in Mexico in 2014. A significant proportion of abducted foreign nationals comprise dual US-Mexican nationals and those with links to criminal activity in the country. Despite the fact that foreign nationals represent a low percentage of kidnap victims in Mexico, foreign-owned/run business operations still face a major risk of being affected due to their substantial local employee base. In addition, given that criminals are driven by perceived wealth and vulnerability, foreign employees or short-term visitors are not immune to this threat. Nonetheless, the majority of kidnap victims in Mexico are male (around 60 percent) and aged 30 or over. Within the local population, small business owners are among the most frequently targeted groups; this is partly due to the perceived certainty of available funds and lack of protective measures. Other target groups include wealthy individuals and their family members, as well as journalists, students, corporate executives, agricultural landowners, politicians, security force personnel and individuals already involved in criminal activity. However, this trend has become less discriminatory in recent years, with lower-income individuals being increasingly targeted. Surveillance of victims generally takes place for seven to ten days prior to abduction; as such, short-term travelers are less likely to be targeted.

Incident Snapshot: On 7 January 2014, Gibran David Martiz Diaz, a former contestant of a Mexican television show, The Voice, was seized from his residence in Xalapa, the capital of Veracruz. He was killed in a shoot-out between police and the suspected perpetrators during a security operation on 18 January 2014.

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Ransom demands and payments The nature of the kidnapping, specifically information pertaining to the perpetrators and victims, more often than not determines the ransom details in each particular case. Experienced criminals, who have conducted pre-operational surveillance, carried out intelligence-gathering operations, and have the resources to hold victims for prolonged periods of time, will demand substantial ransom payments, based on the information they have acquired regarding the victim’s net worth. More inexperienced and opportunistic kidnappers will focus on amounts they perceive to be attainable.

Generally, it has been established that initial ransom demands in Mexico vary between US$1,000 and US$2 million, with an average ransom demand of about US$250,000. Payment figures in Mexico are approximately 40 to 55 percent of the initial demand. Payments range from US$800 to US$1 million, with an average of between US$50,000 and US$75,000. These figures do not include outlier demands and payments that have characterised very high-profile abductions; in such cases, demands have been as large as US$50 million and payments as high as US$20 million.

Virtual kidnapping and extortion demands, often emanating from incarcerated individuals, can involve sums as low as US$400. On the other hand, sophisticated extortion operations involving the country’s TCOs and targeting manufacturing plants in northern Mexico can involve demands totaling in excess of US$10,000 to US$20,000 a month.

Outcomes The majority of kidnappings in Mexico are resolved within ten days; contact by the perpetrators is usually initiated within 48 hours. Victims may be subject to violence, including torture, to expedite a ransom payment; however, the majority of victims are released without significant physical harm. Nonetheless, depending on the motivation for the kidnapping (political or financial), between 2 and 30 percent of incidents conclude with the death of the hostage, sometimes despite a ransom payment.

Incident Snapshot: On 29 April 2014, a Ugandan national was kidnapped near Chilapa de Alvarez, Guerrero state. The victim, who had been working in Guerrero as a priest, was intercepted by a group of gunmen as he travelled between Chilapa de Alvarez and Ahuacuotzingo. Local security officials have stated that he was most likely abducted by elements of an organised crime group that is based in Chilapa de Alvarez. His body, together with six others, was identified following the discovery of a mass grave near the town of Ocotitlan, in Guerrero state, on 8 November 2014.

Incident Snapshot: On 25 January 2014, Mexican authorities announced that a US national, who had been missing for several days, was officially presumed kidnapped. The victim had been on a long-term motorcycle tour of the country when he disappeared from the small coastal town of Troncones, Guerrero state, accompanied by gunmen who he had assumed were members of the security forces. Conflicting local testimonies from recently arrested individuals in the area indicated that the victim was abducted by an organised crime group; however, there were suggestions that he had been targeted by a major regional cartel, which suspected he was a US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agent.

Incident Snapshot: On 12 February 2014, a US national was kidnapped in Nuevo Leon as he drove through the Fovissste Alazanas area in the north west of the city. After an initial demand of US$100,000, the victim’s family paid the kidnappers a US$5,000 ransom and supplied them with a four-wheel drive vehicle. The ransom and the vehicle were recovered when security forces rescued the victim from a hotel in the city on 14 February. Two arrests were made in connection with the incident.

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2014 in review: The state of kidnapping in Mexico

As mentioned, according to government kidnapping statistics, countrywide incident numbers decreased by approximately 18 percent in 2014 (from 1,698 in 2013 to 1,394 in 2014). This marked a break in the trend that has seen year-on-year increases in kidnapping numbers since 2007 (bar a slight decrease in 2012). During President Nieto’s first year in office in 2013, Mexico experienced a significant increase in the number of kidnappings reported per month. In 2012, the last year of Felipe Calderon’s presidency, there were an average of just under 110 kidnappings per month. This figure had increased by as much as 23 percent, to 143 kidnappings per month, by the end of November 2013. This marked the biggest year-on-year increase since 2008 (when 50 percent more kidnappings were recorded than in 2007). In 2014, however, according to government statistics, the average number of kidnappings per month purportedly dropped to 116, which is just higher than the pre-Nieto regime’s 110 per month average in 2012.

This reported decrease has, however, been subject to much debate, with non-governmental kidnap monitoring groups stating that kidnapping incidents in Mexico actually increased in 2014. One example of this discrepancy can be found in a recent report by non-governmental organisation, El Consejo para la Ley y los Derechos Humanos, which states that 32,120 kidnappings took place countrywide in 2014; this is an 8 percent increase since 2013, when the organisation announced that 29,711 incidents took place. Even survey-based studies by government body, INEGI, have suggested that annual kidnapping incidents may be as high as 100,000. Geographically, there was overall consistency between the states that recorded the highest number of kidnappings on an annual basis from 2012 to 2014, with the states listed below featuring in the worst-affected lists. However, official government figures reflect significant changes in the ranking of these states over this period. In terms of absolute kidnapping incidents, Tamaulipas, Mexico state and Veracruz recorded the most kidnappings in 2014 (262, 176 and 144, respectively), displacing Guerrero and Michoacan from their positions in the top three worst-affected states during 2013. In addition, although the total number of kidnappings may have decreased, there were marked increases in kidnapping incidents in Tamaulipas and Veracruz in 2014. The remainder of the top 12 kidnapping-affected states in 2014 include Morelos, Guerrero, Tabasco, Michoacan, Jalisco, Distrito Federal (Mexico City), Baja California, Nueva Leon, Oaxaca and Zacatecas.

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Top 12 kidnapping-affected states, 2014 (absolute numbers)

State Number of kidnappings (Jan-Dec) Kidnappings per month

1 Tamaulipas 262 21.8 2 Mexico state 176 14.6 3 Veracruz 144 12.0 4 Morelos 115 9.6 5 Guerrero 110 12.8 6 Tabasco 100 8.3 7 Michoacan 83 6.9

8 Distrito Federal (Mexico City)

62 5.1

9 Baja California 48 4.0 10 Nueva Leon 40 3.3 11 Oaxaca 28 2.3 12 Zacatecas 16 1.3

Absolute numbers of total kidnappings and per-month kidnapping averages should be viewed relatively and to this end, it is necessary to briefly address kidnapping per capita. When doing so, the above assessment of worst-affected states is largely confirmed. Top 12 kidnapping-affected states, 2014 (kidnappings per 100,000 of the population)

State Kidnapping rate per 100,000 (Jan-Dec)

1 Tamaulipas 13.5

2 Morelos 13.0

3 Tabasco 8.6

4 Guerrero 7.5

5 Michoacan 7.2

6 Veracruz 7.0

7 Baja California 6.6

8 Mexico state 3.8

9 Oaxaca 2.8

10 Nueva Leon 2.0

11 Zacatecas 1.0

12 Distrito Federal (Mexico City) 0.7

When combined, the absolute number and per-capita numbers present a solid indication of which states were worst affected by kidnapping in 2014.

Incident Snapshot: On 13 October 2014, three US nationals went missing. They had reportedly been detained by police prior to their disappearance. Their bodies were discovered in Matamoros, in the western Tamaulipas state, on 30 October. Security force members are reportedly under investigation for their alleged involvement in the foreign nationals' disappearance and subsequent homicide.

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Looking ahead: Forecasting changes in the kidnapping environment in 2015

Changes between 2013 and 2014 Taken together with information on state-by-state kidnappings in 2014, the map below illustrates that kidnapping numbers increased in several areas with already-high numbers of abductions, including Tamaulipas, Mexico state and Morelos. The most significant increases in incident rates were recorded in Veracruz and Tamaulipas, where incidents increased by 24.3 and 19.4 percent, respectively. These developments point towards a further consolidation of the kidnapping risk in the central states; this is a continuation of the trend witnessed in recent years. The northern border states displayed lower kidnapping rates, with cartel-related violence remaining the most prominent threat in these areas. In a seemingly positive development, eight high-risk kidnapping states were subject to decreases in recorded incidents in 2014. Significant decreases were reported in the traditional kidnapping hotspots of Jalisco (68 percent), Michoacan (57 percent) and Guerrero (46 percent); reduced figures were also reported in Morelos, where incidents dropped from 150 to 115. In high-risk states elsewhere in the country, decreases in incidents of between 22 and 75 percent purportedly took place in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango and Oaxaca. In an interesting development, the northern state of Baja California also demonstrated an upsurge in recorded kidnappings, with incidents increasing from 33 to 41 (24.2 percent). The overall number of incidents in the state remained moderate nonetheless, with 41 kidnappings reported in 2014.

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Changes during 2014 Another indicator of what may happen in 2015 is to look at how kidnapping numbers changed during the course of 2014.

While business cycle-like variances in the number of incidents per month took place in 2012 and 2013, there was a noticeable downturn in incidents during the second half of 2014. The lowest number of kidnappings in 2014 took place in December. This development, together with the overall yearly decrease, may point to a positive trend of reduced kidnappings in 2015; however, given the influence of other anticipated political and security related developments (see below), a major

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decrease is not anticipated. It is in fact anticipated that 2015 will remain fairly consistent with previous years, with a major increase or decrease in incidents unlikely.

Outlook for 2015: KRE trends and dynamics

Kidnapping in Mexico is as much a security issue as it is a political one. Despite the purported decrease in incidents in 2014, high-profile incidents and consternation over actual kidnapping figures have drawn negative attention to Nieto’s presidency and national security plan. An additional contention relates to the deployment of Nieto’s gendarmerie in August 2014, which was met with widespread skepticism. This was partly a result of the size of the force itself (once touted to be in the multitude of thousands, although only 5,000-strong on deployment) and partly due to the nature of the force. It was seen as a continuation of the militaristic approach to fighting drug cartels that has, thus far, proven largely inefficient in reducing violence. The significant military commitment (outlined in the new ten-point security plan) to eradicate kidnapping in the worst-affected areas of Tamaulipas, Guerrero, Veracruz, Mexico state, Morelos and elsewhere in 2015 holds the potential to manifest in a renewed disruption of cartels as well as an upsurge in violence in these and other areas in the short- to medium-term. Kidnapping rates will remain high in the above states, which have traditionally been badly affected by the crime, as well as elsewhere. Although security operations will generally only pose an incidental risk to bystanders in the immediate-term, precedent has shown that further ruptures within cartels may result in the balkanisation of organised crime groups, leading to an increase in kidnapping and extortion activities. Factors to monitor which may impact the threat posed by kidnapping in 2015:

The implementation of the new security plan. This will involve the dismantling of municipal police, which have played a positive role in reducing the KRE threat in some high-risk areas, including traditional hotspots, Tijuana, Monterrey, Merida and Ciudad Juarez.

Role of self-defense militia groups. These groups have played a strong role in decreasing the threat in central states such as Michoacan. However, the physical and legal role these groups will play in maintaining security in these states following the implementation of the new security plan has yet to be defined. An attempt on the state to dismantle such groups may result in increased violence in states where they maintain a strong presence.

The breakup of state oil company, Pemex, following a 76 year monopoly. Cartels are already involved in the illegal siphoning and sale of oil. With local and foreign companies now allowed to bid for oil tenders, cartel activity could become more focussed on oil-rich areas, resulting in a possible increase in violence.

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Extortion and non-traditional kidnapping variants

Non-traditional forms of kidnapping are rife in Mexico and arguably pose a more widespread and significant security threat than traditional KRE. Due to the reduced risks associated with these types of crimes, extortion, express kidnapping and virtual kidnapping are overtaking traditional kidnap for ransom incidents. Extortion Extortion is endemic in Mexico, with reported incidents eclipsing kidnapping incidents over the last decade. In line with government figures on kidnapping, extortion incidents were also reportedly subject to a decline in 2014; 5,775 incidents were reported in comparison to the 8,196 in 2013.

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TCOs remained the primary perpetrators; although they have continued to focus on the production, trafficking and distribution of narcotics, they have increasingly included extortive practices in their modus operandi. In comparison to kidnapping, the risks associated with extortion are reduced; it is a financially-rewarding, lower-input crime, which requires fewer resources, and can be very lucrative, particularly over the longer-term. Opportunistic, unprofessional extortion has also grown. This group of perpetrators has taken advantage of the fear instilled by drug groups to threaten victims during extortion attempts. Under the guise of being part of a cartel, the lay-criminal can conduct extortion without the necessary capability to carry out threats. Apart from drug cartels and opportunistic criminals, a growing proportion of extortion attempts are also instigated by criminal organisations. Until fairly recently (roughly 2006), local family-owned businesses were discriminately targeted by extortionists. This was fundamentally due to the ease with which perpetrators could identify those with control over the finances of the enterprise. Smaller local firms are also more likely to have cash available on demand. Businesses targeted by extortionists have included insurance companies, banks, other financial institutions, mining companies, retail shops, refuelling stations, transportation services, manufacturers, hotels, and ranches. However, there has been a significant expansion in the range of potential targets in recent years. Indeed, statistics and anecdotal evidence suggest that the full revenue spectrums of businesses and income earners are targeted. This diversification of targets was evident in 2014, and is expected to continue in 2015.

Extortionists continued to target foreign companies or those with interests in foreign companies in 2014. Statistics on the extent of the crime among foreign firms are difficult to ascertain; this is largely due to the lack of reporting and undesirability of this becoming common knowledge. However, anecdotal and operational evidence suggests that foreign and multinational companies that were previously regarded as off-limits no longer enjoy such immunity. Extortion also presented as an external threat, with disgruntled local employees regularly implicated in extortion incidents.

Express kidnapping Express kidnapping is an established security concern in many urban centres in Mexico. This form of kidnapping involves victims being held for a short-term while they are forced to withdraw money or hand over PIN details so that money can be withdrawn from ATMs. A high percentage of cases take place in large cities, where the victim is usually held at gunpoint; almost all incidents involve robbery of personal possessions. As many as 20 percent of cases involve assault, including sexual assault of female victims. Express kidnapping gangs tend to operate in groups of two or three and generally work from at least one vehicle. The profiles of the victims targeted in express kidnapping crimes differ

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according to the area in which the crime takes place and the sophistication of the perpetrating group. Criminals often choose victims almost at random, although they tend to be attracted to any individuals displaying an indication of wealth. Intoxicated individuals also provide an easy target, as do tourists, who are often easily identifiable and vulnerable. Although the use of bogus taxis or rogue taxi drivers is a primary modus operandi of express kidnappers, incidents are also perpetrated near outdoor ATMs. Authorities are not, however, in the practice of recording express kidnapping as consistently as traditional kidnapping incidents. This is largely due to the short-term nature of the crime and the relatively small 'ransom' payments; people who fall victim to express kidnappings don’t generally report them to police. However, despite the lack of solid data, recent incidents, coupled with available statistics and anecdotal evidence confirm the high threat this form of crime poses, to both locals and foreign nationals. Virtual kidnapping In a virtual kidnapping, a ransom demand is made but there is no actual hostage taking; rather, negotiations with those of whom the ransom is demanded are made on the pretext that a connected person has been abducted. There have been several reported incidents of virtual kidnapping in Mexico in recent years; however, statistics on the crime are not readily available. A trend identified by red24 over the past few years has been the emergence of a hybrid form of virtual Kidnapping, which continued in 2014. In these cases, the incident is initiated as a virtual kidnapping. Once the victim is in a location intended by the perpetrators, the victim is made explicitly aware of his abduction and is held against his/her will by the assumption that they will be harmed should they escape. It is assessed that kidnappings in Mexico will increasingly take the form of this hybrid virtual kidnapping in 2015.

Incident Snapshot: A Spanish national was rescued by Mexican security forces, after being the victim of a kidnapping incident in Mexico City that began on 6 October 2014. According to the victim, he was contacted via telephone by the perpetrators who, under the pretence that they were members of an official security authority, instructed the foreign national to vacate his hotel and relocate to specified alternative accommodation a short distance away. Once established in his new hotel, the victim was informed that he had been kidnapped by the Los Zetas organised crime group and would be killed if he left his room; the perpetrators further demanded the contact details of his employer and relatives. They demanded a ransom payment for his release. After concerned relatives reported the incident to authorities, the victim was escorted from the hotel by security forces. According to subsequent investigations, it emerged that the perpetrators had orchestrated the incident from a prison facility.

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Outlook for 2015: Extortion and non-traditional kidnapping variants

Given its effectiveness as a crime and the relatively low risk to the perpetrators, extortion incidents are unlikely to decline in 2015. Businesses should ensure that they are equipped and prepared to encounter extortion and its potential operational and legal ramifications when operating in Mexico. The risk is expected to be most elevated in Jalisco, Mexico state and Distrito Federal; per capita kidnapping rates from 2014 indicate that Quintana Roo will be subject to a high extortion risk. The threat will also remain high in Michoacan, Nuevo Leon, Mexico state, Guerrero, Tamaulipas and Baja California states. Regular express and sporadic virtual kidnappings should be anticipated in larger cities and towns in 2015.

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