Metro EDGE Study

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SOUTH SALINA STREET

TRADE AREA

SYRACUSE,NEW YORK

By

A business of

www.metro-edge.com 312.881.5860

July 2005
http://www.metro-edge.com/http://www.metro-edge.com/


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PRESENTATION

APPENDIX

I. METHODOLOGY &DEFINITIONSII. ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONIII. SUPPORT SLIDES


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South Salina Street Trade Area, Syracuse, New York

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BACKGROUND

MetroEdge, a market research company specialized in urban markets, was commissionedby NeighborWorks America to conduct a market analysis of the potential for retaildevelopment in the South Salina Street Trade Area of Syracuse, New York. The purposeof this study is to:

1) Attract retail investment in the South Salina Street Trade Area by quantifyingthe economic character of the environment for retail investment and to preparea user friendly presentation which will support future discussions withdevelopers, brokers and retailers, and

2) Educate current constituents including residents, current businesses,community organizations, and government about the lack of current and thedemand for new commercial development in the Trade Area.

Our approach is based on analysis of national and local datasets combined with business,community and consultant observations. The Trade Area (Adams on the north, Highway81 on the east, Brighton on the south and Midland on the west) was defined by a workingteam designated by NeighborWorks America and composed of the City of SyracuseEconomic and Community Development Departments, Home HeadQuarters,NeighborWorks affiliate, and two local neighborhood groups, Gateway CommunityCorporation and the Gateway Business Association. The working team proposed theTrade Area after analyzing the natural retail boundaries of the corridor and reaching a

community consensus. This same group also acted as a sounding board for theMetroEdge Team on occasion.

With this Executive Summary, we are delivering our final report consisting of:

a) A Presentation designed to inform current and potential businessinvestors/operators and developers of the commercial viability in the TradeArea. It contains relevant information and is offered in a format whereexisting business, community and resident leadership as well as the City willbe able to use it to inform target groups;

b) An Appendix, which includes ancillary materials: definitions, description ofthe MetroEdge methodology, and additional analysis that was prepared forthis study. This Appendix includes additional slides and data which arecontained on a separate CD, with highlights attached on paper.

c) Phase One Report: In April, MetroEdge submitted an analysis detailing initialfindings of the study and suggesting further exploration of the area.

Prepared by MetroEdge, a Business of ShoreBankJuly 2005

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FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS

Key findings include:

Existing density in the Trade Area as in much of the southern part of the City ofSyracuse supports demand with buying power of $850,000 or 10 times theconcentration per square mile in the surrounding County of Onondaga.

While buying power is strong, current retail opportunities are scarce as is evidentby $122,000 in leakage or retail float in the southern most zip code of the TradeArea where the residential population is highest.

In addition to increasing demand and a widening gap in available places to obtainmost goods and services, the number and percentage of middle incomehouseholds is on the rise.

Major employers in the area, including long standing retail businesses on thecorridor such as Byrne Dairy, Coyle Textile and Dunk & Bright represent local

entrepreneurs who have elected to remain and invest in growing their businessesat key locations in the Trade Area. They and others represent employment forover 4200 individuals on a typical work day.

The Trade Area is easily accessible by car from downtown and the University aswell as directly from Highway 81 at a key Trade Area node, Brighton and SouthSalina Street. This fact is exemplified by the traffic count data.

There are several vacant parcels of different sizes on South Salina Street includingsome owned by the City and available for redevelopment within anEmpowerment Zone.

The community and smaller entrepreneurs are represented by existing communityand business groups such as the Gateway Business Association as well as a

recently rejuvenated cadre of Block Captains, many of which are also members ofthe local Homeowners Association.

Support for this effort and other community improvement is being offered by theCity of Syracuse, NeighborWorks America, local foundations such as the GiffordFoundation and the Syracuse University.

These and other attributes make the South Salina Street Trade Area desirable for bothfuture retail development and continued investment by current businesses. To turn thispotential into more and improved retail opportunities this market analysis must becoupled with continued interest and investment by residents, community groups,philanthropy and local government in both new and existing residential opportunities.1

1 This market analysis focused on the commercial opportunities in the Trade Area. Residential andcommunity opportunities and investment were identified during the course of the work. However anyfurther retail investment is dependent on community investment which builds upon the strengths mentionedabove.


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Overall, Metro Edges study has identified areas for development. This report provides aframework for attracting retailers and frames a critically needed community and civicdialogue about priorities for development both in the Trade Area and in the City. Anyretail development strategy will require aligning the self-interests of the community

residents, the business organizations, local agencies, private investors and public policiesto proceed with the development of the area. A key is not just a dialogue withcommercial entities to build interest but also a debate in the community about startingpoints and alignment on the housing improvement imperative and the retail opportunities.A two pronged focus is suggested, focusing on housing and retail investment. In regardsto retail, the community must determine whether goals for retail in the area are to servethe residents of the Trade Area, be a gateway from the University or from Highway 81,serve as economic investment which will support existing business, or increase the localtax base.


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2005

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South Salina Street Trade Area

Syracuse, NY

South Salina Street Trade AreaSouth Salina Street Trade Area

Syracuse, NYSyracuse, NY

By

A Business of

2230 South Michigan Ave, Suite 200, Chicago, IL, 60616 312-881-5860 www.metro-edge.com


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BackgroundBackground

Retail Needs and OpportunitiesRetail Needs and Opportunities

OpportunitiesOpportunities Key IntersectionsKey Intersections

SummarySummary

Community AssetsCommunity Assets

Next StepsNext Steps


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South SalinaSouth Salina

StreetStreet

Trade AreaTrade Area

Boundaries:

North: Adams Street

South: Brighton Avenue

West: Midland

East: Highway 81

Population: 6,569

Places of Business: 237

Employees: 4,150

Size: 0.908 square miles

Source: Claritas, 2004


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July, 2005 4

Median Household Income

Missed Opportunity in Syracuse!Missed Opportunity in Syracuse!

Concentrated Buying Power

ONONDAGA COUNTY

There is a higher concentration of money to be spent in retail stores in the

city of Syracuse than in the typical surrounding suburbs.


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Concentrated Buying Power($100000 per Square Mile)

$875

$850

50100150200250300350400

450500550600650700750800850900950

Comparison Trade Area

Source: Claritas 2004

MetroEdge, 2230 South Michigan Ave. Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60616

www.metro-edge.com

Why South Salina Street Trade AreaWhy South Salina Street Trade AreaThere are 10 times more dollars available to be spent in retail stores in South Salina Street Trade Area than in Onondaga County per square m

OnondagaCounty

Trade Area


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ConcentratioConcentratio

of Buyingof Buying

Power

Power


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Existing Income DiversityExisting Income Diversity

Household Annual Income Distribution

16%12% 12%

15%19%

12% 14%

50%

18% 16%

6% 5% 4% 2%

0%

5%

10%

15%20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

Less than

$15,000

$15,000 to

$24,999

$25,000 to

$34,999

$35,000 to

$50,000

$50,000 to

$75,000

$75,000 to

$100,000

$100,000 plus

Fractio

n

ofHouseholds

Comp

Trade

rce: Claritas 2004

roEdge, 2230 South Michigan Ave. Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60616

w.metro-edge.com

South Salina Trade Area households exhibit a broad rangof incomes; 33% earn more than the citys median incomeof $25,931.

City of Syracuses Median Income: $25,931

Coun

Trade


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Existing Middle Income DensityExisting Middle Income Density

Middle to Upper Income Households per Square Mi

169

813

050

100150200250300350400450

500550600650700750800850900

County Trade Area

Sourc e: Claritas 2004


www.metro-edge.com

There are five times morehouseholds with incomes abovethe citys median income of

$25,000 in the Trade Area than inOnondaga County per square mi

Counting the number of middleincome households captures thedensity of urban areas and revealsa larger number of middle incomefamilies in the trade area.

* Household Middle Income = Householdswith income between $25K and $60 K


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Long Term Investment in the CommunitLong Term Investment in the Communit

Major employers in the area:

Byrne Dairy 34

Coyne Textile 21

Dunk & Bright 7

Syracuse Housing Authority 7

Vivan Teal Health Center 14

CENTRO/Bus System 40

G.C. Hanford Manufacturing 23

Atlas Health Care Linen 8

Community Health Center 3

Salvation Army 18

TOTAL 2,11


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Other Investments in the areaOther Investments in the area

Investors Actions

University of Syracuse Downtown Campus and Transit

Link

Chamber of Commerce Gateway Business Association

NeighborWorks America/

Home HeadQuarters

Housing development, rehabinvestment, home-ownershipfunding

Foundations:

Gifford Foundation

Community Foundation

Active block club network

Cultural events

Business development services

City of Syracuse Downtown development

Brownfield clean-up

Sources: University of Syracuse, Chamber of Commerce, Neighborworks America,Home HeadQuarters, Gifford, Community Foundation, City of Syracuse


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Flex Loans - homeimprovement loans that use

private bank funds.

HIP = Home ImprovementLoans CDBG fundedloans/grants for people und80% of median and impairecredit.

Mini Grants small grants

usually under $3K to doexterior work to improve curappeal.

SHARP Small HomeAssistance Repair ProgramGrants up to $1000 to helpwith small home repairs.

Home HeadQuartersHome HeadQuarters

Activity in the areaActivity in the area


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Retail Opportunity in the AreaRetail Opportunity in the Area

Dollarsleaving an

area, due the lack ofretail.

Unmetdemand

RetailOpportunit

=

Retail Flo


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South Salina Trade Area

RetailRetail

PotentialPotential

The southern paof the SouthSalina TradeArea presentsretail opportunity

Zip code 13205:

Retail Float =

$122,751,307


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Retail Opportunity by SectorRetail Opportunity by Sector

Category Demand Supply Float

Float asPercenof Dem

Motor Vehicle and Miscellaneous AutomotiveDealers 18,151,996 793,361 17,358,635

ood Stores 12,833,615 4,763,006 8,070,609

Department Stores 5,647,187 0 5,647,187 1

ating and Drinking Places 7,690,670 2,770,000 4,920,670

Hardware/Building Materials 5,109,557 527,704 4,581,853

Drug and Proprietary Stores 4,028,652 0 4,028,652 1

Apparel and Accessory Stores 4,379,662 2,540,884 1,838,778

General Merchandise Excl. Department Stores 3,555,329 1,908,165 1,647,164

Household Appliances, Radio & TV Stores 1,599,432 173,000 1,426,432

Gasoline Service Stores 4,310,962 3,030,449 1,280,513

Automotive and Home Supply Stores 1,045,549 0 1,045,549 1

urniture and Home Furnishings Stores 2,599,316 9,199,532 -6,600,216


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Retail Opportunity Factoring CompetitioRetail Opportunity Factoring Competition

Category Demand FloatAdjustedFloat

Motor Vehicle and Miscellaneous Automotive Dealers 18,151,996 17,358,635 13,901,

Department Stores 5,647,187 5,647,187 4,463,5

Eating and Drinking Places 7,690,670 4,920,670 4,016,0

Hardware/Building Materials 5,109,557 4,581,853 3,762,4

Food Stores 12,833,615 8,070,609 3,103,2

Drug and Proprietary Stores 4,028,652 4,028,652 2,095,4

Apparel and Accessory Stores 4,379,662 1,838,778 1,439,4

General Merchandise Excl. Department Stores 3,555,329 1,647,164 1,126,6

Household Appliances, Radio & TV Stores 1,599,432 1,426,432 1,115,2

Automotive and Home Supply Stores 1,045,549 1,045,549 406,3

Gasoline Service Stores 4,310,962 1,280,513 -1,296,9

Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 2,599,316 -6,600,216 -7,602,0


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Service Sector OpportunityService Sector OpportunityEstablishments Per 1000

Households

Service Sector County Trade Area GAP

Offices and Clinics of Dentists 1.37 0.43 0.94 2.16 1

Offices and Clinics of Chiropractors 0.41 0.00 0.41 0.95

Tax Return Preparation Services 0.39 0.00 0.39 0.89

Photographic Studios, Portrait 0.38 0.00 0.38 0.88

Automotive Services, Except Repair andCarwashes 0.36 0.00 0.36 0.84

Employment Agencies 0.31 0.00 0.31 0.71

Carwashes 0.30 0.00 0.30 0.70

Offices and Clinics of Optometrists 0.27 0.00 0.27 0.63Computer Maintenance and Repair 0.22 0.00 0.22 0.51

Carpet and Upholstery Cleaning 0.21 0.00 0.21 0.48

Home Health Care Services 0.18 0.00 0.18 0.41 2

Disinfecting and Pest Control Services 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.38

Computer Related Services, NEC 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.33

AdditionalPotential forEstablishments

EmployeGAP


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Brighton and Salina NodeBrighton and Salina Node


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Retail Opportunity at Brighton & SalinaRetail Opportunity at Brighton & Salina


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Castle & Salina NodeCastle & Salina Node

-


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Retail Opportunity at Castle & SalinaRetail Opportunity at Castle & Salina


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Traffic &Traffic &

OpportunityOpportunity

Great accessibility an

traffic counts on SoutSalina Street:

I 81 and Brighton:19,715

Salina and Wood:

13,773

Salina and Furman:10,657


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DonDont be fooled!t be fooled! The South Salina Trade Area is home to over 6,000 residents plus anothe

4,000 employees who come into the Trade Area on a typical work day.

Over 1/3 of the households are middle income. The Buying Power in theTrade Area is $850,000 or 10 times the concentration in Onondaga Countper square mile

The community has a diverse residential population who now leave the arto spend 2 of every 3 dollars to meet their retail needs.

To support the continued viability of the community continued support forresidential opportunities is a critical aspect of any initiative.

While the community is underserved commercially, there are several mayemployers, civic, philanthropic, and community assets, and a commitment

community representatives to support quality neighborhood and city focusretail.

Land and city resources have been allocated to support commercial andresidential development.

There are two nodes where a retailer may chose to invest immediately, onthe Brighton Node located in a residential friendly environment and Castlewhere land for larger and more comprehensive retail could be sited.


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Prepared by MetroEdge, a Business of ShoreBank

July 2005

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. METHODOLOGY &DEFINITIONS.................4

DEFINITIONS CHART..................................8

IMPLEMENTING COMMERCIAL

DEVELOPMENT CHART.............................11

II. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.......................12

SERVICE SECTORCOMPLETE GAP

ANALYSIS...................................................12

III. SUPPORT SLIDES.........................................21


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SUPPORT SLIDESTABLE OF CONTENTS

A. OVERVIEW OF THE AREA

POPULATION

i. DENSITY

ii. DIVERSITY

b. SHOPPING CENTERS IN SYRACUSE

c. SOUTH SALINA STREET TRADE AREA

i. OWNERSHIP &LAND USE

ii. DENSITY &POPULATION TRENDS

iii. CONCENTRATION OF BUYING POWER

iv. MIDDLE INCOME &MEDIAN INCOME

d. CRIME TRENDS

e. PRIVATE INVESTMENT TRENDSHMDA

i. NEW PURCHASE LOANS

ii. REHAB LOANS

iii. REFINANCE LOANS

f. RETAIL FLOAT

i. RETAIL FLOAT BY SQUARE FOOTAGE

ii. NODES PROFILES

g.SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY SERVICE SECTORGAP


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I.METHODOLOGY &DEFINITIONS

This Report reflects a first stage of exploration for a traditional new retail development. It

is based on both local and national data. Sources and limitations concerning the core dataand an explanation of the analytic methodology used are provided below. Broadly, itshould be noted that data-based analysis provides a useful starting point and offers a

number of benefits: it can uncover less-obvious opportunities, compare multiple large

geography and serve to educate constituencies as well as retail interests but it must beapplied judiciously and in context. All data sources have significant limitations, and some

important characteristics of retail markets cannot be captured by secondary data. As a

result, it becomes important to understand how to use the data appropriately and tocomplement them with other types of analyses.

Additionally, there are a number of metrics such as HMDA and housing trends that are

included in the supplemental slides. In many cases the trends go up and down or mayindicate a need for additional focus and attention to maintain the viability of the area. It

will be important to be prepared to explain those factors where the trends indicate thatthe City and the Community must continue to focus on reinvestment to satisfy concerns of

a retailer or be prepared to offer incentives to mitigate perceived risk.

A.DEMAND

Demand is the measure of potential dollars available to be spent in retail stores by the

consumers in an area. This information is derived from the Retail Trade Potentialdatabase. The Census of Retail Trade is the basis of this information. Retail sales by store

type are correlated with demographic characteristics to develop estimates of expenditures

by store type. The Demand of a particular geography is estimated by identifying thedemographic characteristics of the area, then extrapolating the associated expenditure

patterns for those demographics and updating these estimates for the current year. This

procedure enables estimation of potential spending by store type for residents in a given

geography. These models and the resulting spending estimates are imperfect, particularlyfor inner-city areas, and tend to underestimate Demand for those areas. They are

nevertheless the best available for present purposes, and keeping in mind their

limitations can be reasonably reliably used to consider the relative strength orspending potential of geographies.

B.SUPPLY

Retailers, of course, are interested not only in the Demand of a neighborhood, but also in

the competition how much of that retail potential is not met locally? The second

variable, Retail Sales, provides an estimate of the dollar amount of actual retail sales bystore type. These estimates are also based on the Census of Retail Trade. It should also be


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noted that the Census of Retail Trade, as well as current business databases, may tend to

undercount smaller and informal economy business activity, so this estimation proceduremay also underestimate total retail sales in a given geography. It is, however, the best

available data and quite reliable for these purposes.

C.RETAIL FLOATRetail Float is a simple, yet powerful, metric that measures the amount of unmet retail

opportunity in a geographic area.

Retail Float is the difference between Demand and Supply: it is an indicator of how much

residents of an area spend that is not captured by actual sales by stores in the area. Thismethodology tends to produce a conservative estimate of float (i.e., it tends to

underestimate float, providing a minimum or lower boundary of the likely amount of

float) because stores sell to people outside the neighborhood as well.

Most neighborhoods have a positive float, because certain types of goods and services are

not normally purchased in the neighborhood. For example, you would not find majorappliance stores or large law firms in most neighborhood areas. It is important to work

with commercial development experts familiar with the scale and type of retail which is

anticipated, active brokers again savvy about the market and directly with interestedretailers to further define the most suitable for the trade area of study. A good source for

this type of information is the International Council of Shopping Centers (www.icsc.org),

which is a the global trade association of the shopping center industry, whichmembership includes shopping center owners, developers, managers, marketing

specialists, investors, lenders, retailers and other professionals. Other good sources of

information are your local and regional developers, brokers and retailers.

Figure 1 Retail Float Methodology

If

Buying Power Retail Sales = 0

Then retail sales (supply) and consumer buying (demand) are at parity

[Supply Demand]

Buying Power Retail Sales = Negative $

Then there are more sales occurring in a geographic area than what is supported by

those that reside in that area.

[Supply > Demand]

Buying Power Retail Sales = Positive $

Then there is more demand for retail than is currently available in a certain geographic area.

[Supply < Demand]


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D.ADJUSTED FLOAT

Adjusted float provides a measure of the extent of competition for the unmet demand in

the neighborhood: how much of that Float is, in fact, met by stores nearby? In otherwords, if there are stores outside the boundaries of the neighborhood whose market areas

likely include some of the households inside the neighborhood, the Float from those

households is really not unmet demand, since it is presumably satisfied nearby. We callthis Near Float and subtract it from the overall Float, to adjust the estimates of retail

potential to account for nearby competition, calling it Adjusted Float.

METHOD:

ESTIMATE DEMAND MET BY

NEARBY ESTABLISHMENTS

ACCORDING TO THE

PROXIMITY TO THE TARGET

AREA AND SIZE OF THESE

NEARBY ESTABLISHMENTS

ADJUST FLOAT BY

SUBTRACTING DEMAND

SATISFIED NEARBY

Figure 1: Retail Float Adjustment

E. DEMAND COMPETITION INDEX

An additional metric, the Demand Competition Index, looks at Adjusted Float as apercentage of unadjusted Float, thus providing a measure of the impact of competition.

Where there is a greater number of nearby stores, both Adjusted Float and the Demand

Competition Index will be greater. The Demand Competition Index is capped at 100%

and is not calculated for categories with a negative unadjusted float.


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F. TARGETING SERVICE SECTORS

In addition to examining the potential for particular store categories engaging in the retail

sale of goods, this Report also looks atservice sector opportunities. This is done througha Gap Analysis examining the regional average coverage in various service categories

and the gap between this average and the actual coverage in the target community area.

This procedure allows us to estimate the number of new establishments required to servethe needs of the local population in other words, the unmet demand for local services.

The service sector database includes hundreds of categories. We narrowed the

possibilities down based on which categories on initial examination seemed likely to

present the greatest opportunity; and which types of services are generally most viable forearly-stage neighborhood markets. Many service-sector establishments (such as

professional and legal services firms) are not driven by neighborhood demand, nor are

they generally present proportionately in neighborhoods. The appendix includes a fulllisting of the 238 service sector categories analyzed.. Please note that the results are

representative of a point in time while business are forming and closing monthly.

G.BUYING POWER

The buying power is defined as the potential retail sales in the trade area. It is estimated

at the county level applying a statistical econometric model that factors reported retail

sales per category, HH by age and HH by income. This data is then calculated at the block group level and calibrated at the national level. The basic data comes from

Economic Census Data of sales that businesses report each year.


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a.DEFINITIONS CHART

Variables & Metrics Definitions Source

Demographics

Population Population count for the study areaClaritas Population Facts 2004, Census2000

Diversity Index

The diversity index reports the percentage of times two randomly

selected people would differ by race/ethnicity

Claritas Population Facts 2004, Census

2000, MetroEdge Calculations

Households Household count for the study area.Claritas Population Facts 2004, Census2000

Average Household IncomeAverage of the aggregated income reported from wages, self-employment income, interest and dividends

Claritas Population Facts 2004, Census2000

Median Household Income Median annual Household IncomeClaritas Population Facts 2004, Census2000

Total Middle Income Households*Total number of households with annual household income between$25K and $60K


Concentrated Middle Income*Total number of households with annual household income between$25K and $60K, per square mile


Average Concentrated Middle Income*Average total number of households with household incomebetween $25K and $60K, per square mile


Total Middle to Upper Middle Income

Households*

Total number of households with household income between $25K

and above

Claritas Population Facts 2004, Census

2000Investment trends

Building Permits (all)Permits for new construction, repair, conversion, addition,demolition. City of Syracuse, 2002-2004

HMDA LoansHome Mortgage Disclosure Act Loans. Number of loans related tohousing for a period of time in an area.

Federal Financial Institutions ExaminationCouncil 1993-2003 & MetroEdgeCalculations


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Retail Potential

Retail Establishments Retail establishments in the study area.

Claritas Business Point Data 2005, ClaritasBusiness Facts 2004 and on the groundknowledge

Demand

Equivalent to Buying power: a measure of potential dollars availableto be spent in retail stores by the consumers who live in the studyarea.

Claritas Business Facts 2004, Retail TradePotential, MetroEdge Calculations

SupplyTotal dollar amount of actual retail sales for the retail category underanalysis

Claritas Business Point Data 2005, ClaritasBusiness Facts 2004, and MetroEdgeCalculations

Float

Measure of the amount of unmet retail opportunity in the study area,and is calculated as the difference between buying power (demand)and retail sales (supply). MetroEdge Calculations

Float as a Percentage of Demand Percentage of demand that is met outside the study area MetroEdge Calculations

Adjusted Float

Adjusts float for the amount that is captured by establishmentsimmediately outside of the target area. Near Float is subtracted fromoverall Float. MetroEdge Calculations

Demand Competition IndexMeasure of the impact of competition. Near Float as a percentage ofunadjusted Float. MetroEdge Calculations

Estimated Square Footage

Estimated total additional amount of square footage available in the

study area for retail development. These figures are based onadjusted float, which is a more conservative estimate of float. ICSC 2004, MetroEdge Calculations

Service Sector Gap (number ofestablishments)

Estimated gap in the number of service sector establishments in thestudy area by category. The gap is calculated based on the averagenumber of establishments per 1,000 households in the county

MetroEdge Calculations, Claritas BusinessPoint Data 2005

Service Sector Gap (number of employees)

Estimated gap in the number of service sector employees in thestudy area by category. The gap is calculated based on the averagenumber of establishment per 1,000 household in the county

MetroEdge Calculations, Claritas BusinessPoint Data 2005


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Buying Power

Buying Power Potential retail sales in the trade areaClaritas Business Facts 2004, Retail TradePotential, MetroEdge Calculations

Concentration of Buying Power Potential retail sales in the trade area per square mileClaritas Business Facts 2004, Retail TradePotential, MetroEdge Calculations

Traffic Count

Daily Traffic Count

Average number of cars that drive by an specific location during a

day (24 hrs) Claritas Traffic Counts (using GDT data)Growth Index

Growth Index or Percentage IncreasePercentage of change over a period of time, taking the first year asthe base. MetroEdge Calculations

Median Household Net Wealth

Median Household Net Wealth refers to a households total worthfrom all assets and investments. As homes are the single biggestasset for most households, net wealth is higher in areas with highrates of homeownership. Claritas 2004, MetroEdge Calculations

Concentrated Net Wealth The concentration of net wealth in dollars per square mile. Claritas 2004, MetroEdge Calculations

* According to the Department of Labors definition for middle income, we have standardized our definition to be 60-140% of the median income ofan area. We use the CBSA median in making the calculation. The CBSA of which Syracuse is a part has a median income of $42,822, so wevedefined middle income as households earning between $25-60K.


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b.IMPLEMENTING COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT

MetroEdge South

Salina Street

Trade Area Study


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II.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

a.SERVICE SECTORCOMPLETE GAPANALYSIS

Establishments Per 1000 Households

Service SectorSICCode County Trade Area GAP

AdditionalPotential forEstablishments

EmployeGAP

Building materials, hardware, garden supply, & mobilehome 52 1.37 0.43 0.93 2.15 40

Lumber and Other Building Materials Dealers 5211 0.52 0.00 0.52 1.20 23

Paint, Glass, and Wallpaper Stores 5231 0.28 0.43 -0.16 -0.36 0

Hardware Stores 5251 0.13 0.00 0.13 0.30 9

Retail Nurseries, Lawn and Garden Supply Stores 5261 0.39 0.00 0.39 0.89 6

Mobile Home Dealers 5271 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.13 0

General merchandise stores 53 0.58 1.30 -0.72 -1.66 44

Department Stores 5311 0.31 0.00 0.31 0.73 51

Variety Stores 5331 0.19 1.30 -1.11 -2.56 -7

Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 5399 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.18 0

Food stores 54 2.32 3.47 -1.15 -2.66 64

Grocery Stores 5411 1.29 2.60 -1.31 -3.02 48

Meat and Fish (Seafood) Markets, Including FreezerProvisioners 5421 0.17 0.87 -0.70 -1.61 3

Fruit and Vegetable Markets 5431 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.19 0Candy, Nut, and Confectionery Stores 5441 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.21 1

Dairy Products Stores 5451 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0

Retail Bakeries 5461 0.31 0.00 0.31 0.73 5

Miscellaneous Food Stores 5499 0.35 0.00 0.35 0.81 5

Automotive dealers and gasoline service stations 55 2.31 1.30 1.01 2.33 64

Motor Vehicle Dealers (New and Used) 5511 0.36 0.00 0.36 0.83 41

Motor Vehicle Dealers (Used Only) 5521 0.65 0.43 0.22 0.50 1


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July 2005

13

Auto and Home Supply Stores 5531 0.58 0.00 0.58 1.34 16

Gasoline Service Stations 5541 0.37 0.87 -0.49 -1.14 0

Boat Dealers 5551 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.25 1

Recreational Vehicle Dealers 5561 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.19 1

Motorcycle Dealers 5571 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.20 0

Automotive Dealers, NEC 5599 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.16 0

Apparel and accessory stores 56 1.67 2.60 -0.93 -2.15 -236

Men's and Boys' Clothing and Accessory Stores 5611 0.10 0.43 -0.34 -0.77 -4

Women's Clothing Stores 5621 0.33 0.00 0.33 0.76 5

Women's Accessory and Specialty Stores 5632 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.16 1

Children's and Infants' Wear Stores 5641 0.05 0.87 -0.81 -1.87 -1

Family Clothing Stores 5651 0.40 0.43 -0.03 -0.07 7

Shoe Stores 5661 0.26 0.00 0.26 0.60 4

Miscellaneous Apparel and Accessory Stores 5699 0.46 0.87 -0.41 -0.95 -248

Furniture, home furnishings and equipment stores 57 2.63 2.60 0.02 0.05 -32

Furniture Stores 5712 0.45 0.87 -0.42 -0.96 -60

Floor Covering Stores 5713 0.26 0.00 0.26 0.60 4

Drapery, Curtain, and Upholstery Stores 5714 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.18 0

Miscellaneous Homefurnishings Stores 5719 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.59 4

Household Appliance Stores 5722 0.21 0.00 0.21 0.48 1

Radio, Television, and Consumer Electronics Stores 5731 0.25 0.87 -0.62 -1.42 3

Computer and Computer Software Stores 5734 0.80 0.43 0.37 0.85 11

Record and Prerecorded Tape Stores 5735 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.45 3Musical Instrument Stores 5736 0.13 0.43 -0.30 -0.70 -1

Eating and drinking places 58 6.18 4.77 1.41 3.24 144

Eating and Drinking Places 5812 5.52 3.90 1.62 3.73 140

Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 5813 0.66 0.87 -0.21 -0.49 3

Miscellaneous retail 59 6.68 3.04 3.65 8.41 103

Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores 5912 0.48 0.00 0.48 1.10 29

Liquor Stores 5921 0.28 0.43 -0.15 -0.35 -3


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July 2005

14

Used Merchandise Stores 5932 0.53 0.00 0.53 1.23 3

Sporting Goods Stores and Bicycle Shops 5941 0.52 0.43 0.09 0.20 6

Book Stores 5942 0.21 0.00 0.21 0.49 6

Stationery Stores 5943 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.23 2

Jewelry Stores 5944 0.33 0.00 0.33 0.76 3

Hobby, Toy, and Game Shops 5945 0.46 0.00 0.46 1.05 5

Camera and Photographic Supply Stores 5946 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.13 0

Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Shops 5947 0.85 0.87 -0.02 -0.05 4

Luggage and Leather Goods Stores 5948 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.08 0

Sewing, Needlework, and Piece Goods Stores 5949 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.24 1

Catalog and Mail-Order Houses 5961 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.19 0

Automatic Merchandising Machine Operator 5962 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.36 3

Direct Selling Establishments 5963 0.09 0.43 -0.34 -0.79 7

Fuel Oil Dealers 5983 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Bottled Gas) Dealers 5984 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Fuel Dealers, NEC 5989 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0

Florists 5992 0.43 0.43 0.00 0.00 1

Tobacco Stores and Stands 5993 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.15 0

News Dealers and Newsstands 5994 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.05 8

Optical Goods Stores 5995 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.58 6

Miscellaneous Retail Stores, NEC 5999 1.63 0.43 1.19 2.75 14

Hotels, rooming houses, camps, and other lodging places 70 0.58 0.00 0.58 1.34 45

Hotels and Motels 7011 0.53 0.00 0.53 1.23 43Rooming and Boarding Houses 7021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Sporting and Recreational Camps 7032 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.09 2

Recreational Vehicle Parks and Campsites 7033 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0

Organization Hotels and Lodging Houses, onMembership Basis 7041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Personal services 72 6.02 4.34 1.68 3.88 9

Power Laundries, Family and Commercial 7211 0.05 0.43 -0.38 -0.87 -19


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July 2005

15

Garment Pressing, and Agents for Laundries andDrycleaners 7212 0.30 0.00 0.30 0.70 3

Linen Supply 7213 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 1

Coin-Operated Laundries and Drycleaning 7215 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.25 0

Drycleaning Plants, Except Rug Cleaning 7216 0.01 0.43 -0.42 -0.97 -2

Carpet and Upholstery Cleaning 7217 0.21 0.00 0.21 0.48 3

Industrial Launderers 7218 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0

Laundry and Garment Services, NEC 7219 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0

Photographic Studios, Portrait 7221 0.38 0.00 0.38 0.88 1Beauty Shops 7231 2.54 1.30 1.24 2.86 17

Barber Shops 7241 0.34 0.87 -0.53 -1.22 -8

Shoe Repair Shops and Shoeshine Parlors 7251 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.09 0

Funeral Services and Crematories 7261 0.34 0.87 -0.53 -1.21 -0

Tax Return Preparation Services 7291 0.39 0.00 0.39 0.89 4

Miscellaneous Personal Services, NEC 7299 1.28 0.43 0.85 1.95 6

Business services 73 6.56 0.87 5.70 13.13 139

Advertising Agencies 7311 0.22 0.00 0.22 0.50 5

Outdoor Advertising Services 7312 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0Radio, Television, and Publishers' AdvertisingRepresentatives 7313 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0

Advertising, NEC 7319 0.19 0.00 0.19 0.44 2

Adjustment and Collection Services 7322 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.25 3

Credit Reporting Services 7323 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.08 0

Direct Mail Advertising Services 7331 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.24 14Photocopying and Duplicating Services 7334 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.05 0

Commercial Photography 7335 0.17 0.00 0.17 0.39 0

Commercial Art and Graphic Design 7336 0.35 0.00 0.35 0.80 2

Secretarial and Court Reporting Services 7338 0.18 0.00 0.18 0.41 1

Disinfecting and Pest Control Services 7342 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.38 2

Building Cleaning and Maintenance Services, NEC 7349 0.91 0.00 0.91 2.09 19

Medical Equipment Rental and Leasing 7352 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0


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July 2005

16

Heavy Construction Equipment Rental and Leasing 7353 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.21 2

Equipment Rental and Leasing, NEC 7359 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.65 4

Employment Agencies 7361 0.31 0.00 0.31 0.71 9

Help Supply Services 7363 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.58 3

Computer Programming Services 7371 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.25 1

Prepackaged Software 7372 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0

Computer Integrated Systems Design 7373 0.39 0.00 0.39 0.89 7

Computer Processing and Data Preparation andProcessing Services 7374 0.49 0.00 0.49 1.13 14

Information Retrieval Services 7375 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 2

Computer Facilities Management Services 7376 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Computer Rental and Leasing 7377 0.05 0.43 -0.39 -0.89 -7

Computer Maintenance and Repair 7378 0.22 0.00 0.22 0.51 4

Computer Related Services, NEC 7379 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.33 6

Detective, Guard, and Armored Car Services 7381 0.21 0.00 0.21 0.48 13

Security Systems Services 7382 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.18 2

News Syndicates 7383 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0

Photofinishing Laboratories 7384 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.15 0

Business Services, NEC 7389 1.40 0.43 0.97 2.23 19

Automotive repair, services, and parking 75 3.24 2.60 0.64 1.48 26

Truck Rental and Leasing, Without Drivers 7513 0.18 0.00 0.18 0.41 3

Passenger Car Rental 7514 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.26 4

Passenger Car Leasing 7515 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Utility Trailer and Recreational Vehicle Rental 7519 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0

Automobile Parking 7521 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.24 1Top, Body, and Upholstery Repair Shops and PaintShops 7532 0.53 0.43 0.10 0.23 5

Automotive Exhaust System Repair Shops 7533 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.09 0

Tire Retreading and Repair Shops 7534 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0

Automotive Glass Replacement Shops 7536 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.08 0


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July 2005

17

Automotive Transmission Repair Shops 7537 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.14 0

General Automotive Repair Shops 7538 1.43 2.17 -0.74 -1.71 -0

Automotive Repair Shops, NEC 7539 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.15 1

Carwashes 7542 0.30 0.00 0.30 0.70 4

Automotive Services, Except Repair and Carwashes 7549 0.36 0.00 0.36 0.84 3

Miscellaneous repair services 76 1.12 1.30 -0.18 -0.42 5

Radio and Television Repair Shops 7622 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.21 1Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Services and RepairShops 7623 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0Electrical and Electronic Repair Shops, NEC 7629 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.46 2

Watch, Clock, and Jewelry Repair 7631 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.11 0

Reupholstery and Furniture Repair 7641 0.18 0.43 -0.25 -0.57 -1

Welding Repair 7692 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.15 0

Armature Rewinding Shops 7694 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Repair Shops and Related Services, NEC 7699 0.52 0.87 -0.35 -0.81 1

Motion pictures 78 0.41 1.30 -0.89 -2.05 -1

Motion Picture and Video Tape Production 7812 0.23 0.00 0.23 0.54 1

Services Allied to Motion Picture Production 7819 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.06 0

Motion Picture and Video Tape Distribution 7822 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Services Allied to Motion Picture Distribution 7829 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0

Motion Picture Theaters, Except Drive-In 7832 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.15 2

Drive-In Motion Picture Theaters 7833 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Video Tape Rental 7841 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.18 1

Amusement and recreational services 79 2.88 1.30 1.57 3.63 45

Dance Studios, Schools, and Halls 7911 0.18 0.00 0.18 0.41 1

Theatrical Producers (Except Motion Picture) andMiscellaneous Theatrical Services 7922 0.12 0.00 0.12 0.29 10

Bands, Orchestras, Actors, and Other Entertainers andEntertainment Groups 7929 0.62 0.43 0.18 0.43 0

Bowling Centers 7933 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.25 2


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July 2005

18

Professional Sports Clubs and Promoters 7941 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.11 1

Racing, Including Track Operations 7948 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.05 1

Physical Fitness Facilities 7991 0.34 0.00 0.34 0.79 8

Public Golf Courses 7992 0.22 0.00 0.22 0.50 7

Coin-Operated Amusement Devices 7993 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0

Amusement Parks 7996 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.06 0

Membership Sports and Recreation Clubs 7997 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.15 1

Amusement and Recreation Services, NEC 7999 1.11 0.87 0.24 0.55 9

Health services 80 16.03 19.09 -3.06 -7.05 -127

Offices and Clinics of Doctors of Medicine 8011 12.22 16.92 -4.70 -10.83 6

Offices and Clinics of Dentists 8021 1.37 0.43 0.94 2.16 12

Offices and Clinics of Doctors of Osteopathy 8031 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0

Offices and Clinics of Chiropractors 8041 0.41 0.00 0.41 0.95 3

Offices and Clinics of Optometrists 8042 0.27 0.00 0.27 0.63 4

Offices and Clinics of Podiatrists 8043 0.17 0.00 0.17 0.39 2

Offices and Clinics of Health Practitioners, NEC 8049 0.23 0.43 -0.21 -0.47 0

Skilled Nursing Care Facilities 8051 0.15 0.43 -0.29 -0.66 -183

Intermediate Care Facilities 8052 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Nursing and Personal Care Facilities, NEC 8059 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.24 9

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 8062 0.09 0.43 -0.35 -0.80 -67

Psychiatric Hospitals 8063 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.11 3

Specialty Hospitals, Except Psychiatric 8069 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 43

Medical Laboratories 8071 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.45 12Dental Laboratories 8072 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.25 0

Home Health Care Services 8082 0.18 0.00 0.18 0.41 21

Kidney Dialysis Centers 8092 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Specialty Outpatient Facilities, NEC 8093 0.20 0.43 -0.24 -0.55 -2

Health and Allied Services, NEC 8099 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.65 5

Legal services 81 3.18 0.43 2.75 6.34 44

Legal Services 8111 3.18 0.43 2.75 6.34 44


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July 2005

19

Educational services 82 2.18 2.60 -0.42 -0.97 79

Elementary and Secondary Schools 8211 1.26 1.30 -0.04 -0.09 36

Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools 8221 0.17 0.43 -0.27 -0.61 37

Junior Colleges and Technical Institutes 8222 0.06 0.43 -0.37 -0.86 -4

Libraries 8231 0.28 0.43 -0.15 -0.35 3

Data Processing Schools 8243 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.08 0

Business and Secretarial Schools 8244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Vocational Schools, NEC 8249 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0

Schools and Educational Services, NEC 8299 0.36 0.00 0.36 0.83 5

Social services 83 3.67 14.75 -11.08 -25.53 -263

Individual and Family Social Services 8322 1.82 6.51 -4.68 -10.80 -85

Job Training and Vocational Rehabilitation Services 8331 0.15 0.87 -0.72 -1.65 -74

Child Day Care Services 8351 0.90 4.34 -3.44 -7.94 -71

Residential Care 8361 0.29 0.43 -0.14 -0.32 4

Social Services, NEC 8399 0.51 2.60 -2.09 -4.82 -36

Museums, art galleries, botanical & zoological gardens 84 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.23 2

Museums and Art Galleries 8412 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.23 2

Arboreta and Botanical or Zoological Gardens 8422 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Membership organizations 86 4.67 17.79 -13.12 -30.25 -148

Business Associations 8611 0.52 1.30 -0.78 -1.80 -12

Professional Membership Organizations 8621 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.05 0

Labor Unions and Similar Labor Organizations 8631 0.36 0.00 0.36 0.83 31

Civic, Social, and Fraternal Associations 8641 0.55 1.30 -0.75 -1.74 -24Political Organizations 8651 0.04 0.43 -0.40 -0.91 -3

Religious Organizations 8661 3.09 14.75 -11.66 -26.87 -143

Membership Organizations, NEC 8699 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.20 2

Engineering and management services 87 4.79 0.87 3.92 9.03 94

Engineering Services 8711 0.70 0.00 0.70 1.61 31

Architectural Services 8712 0.50 0.00 0.50 1.16 8

Surveying Services 8713 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.38 2


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July 2005

20

Accounting, Auditing, and Bookkeeping Services 8721 0.98 0.00 0.98 2.25 22

Commercial Physical and Biological Research 8731 0.33 0.00 0.33 0.75 10

Commercial Economic, Sociological, and EducationalResearch 8732 0.13 0.00 0.13 0.30 6

Noncommercial Research Organizations 8733 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.10 0

Testing Laboratories 8734 0.15 0.00 0.15 0.34 5

Management Services 8741 0.17 0.00 0.17 0.39 3

Management Consulting Services 8742 1.06 0.87 0.20 0.45 -8

Public Relations Services 8743 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.15 0

Facilities Support Management Services 8744 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Business Consulting Services, NEC 8748 0.50 0.00 0.50 1.15 10

Private households 88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Private Households 8811 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Miscellaneous services 89 0.43 0.43 -0.01 -0.01 0

Services, NEC 8999 0.43 0.43 -0.01 -0.01 0


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1

A Business of

2230 South Michigan Ave, Suite 200, Chicago, IL, 60616 312-881-5860 www.metro-edge.com


Syracuse, NY


Syracuse, NYSyracuse, NY

By


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2

Overview of the AreaOverview of the Area


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3

SyracuseSyracuseNeighborhoodsNeighborhoods


53/112

4

Population DensityPopulation Density-- OnondagaOnondaga



54/112

5

Population ChangePopulation Change 14 years14 years



55/112

6

Diversity in Onondaga CountyDiversity in Onondaga County



56/112

7

Diversity in Onondaga CountyDiversity in Onondaga County



57/112

8

Racial ConcentrationsRacial Concentrations

Percentage Black Population

Percentage White Population



58/112

9

ShoppingShopping

Centers byCenters by

GrossGross

LeasableLeasable

AreaArea



59/112


60/112

11

SouthSouth

SalinaSalinaStreetStreet

TradeTrade

AreaArea


61/112

12

Land UseLand Usein Tradein Trade

AreaArea



62/112

13

DensityDensity Trade AreaTrade Areas Assets Asset



63/112


64/112

15

Population TrendsPopulation Trends

-1.5%0.8%-2.3%Onondaga

-27.2%-7.1%-21.6%Trade Area

Change 1990 - 2004Change 2000 - 2004Change 1990 - 2000

461,787458,336468,973Onondaga

6,5697,0729,021Trade Area

Population 2004Population 2000Population 1990


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16

Median Income in the AreaMedian Income in the Area


66/112

17

Median IncomeMedian Income

Median Income

$44,188

$17,684

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

Onondaga County Trade Area

Onondaga County

Trade Area



www.metro-edge.com


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19

Middle Income TrendMiddle Income TrendCount of HouseholdsCount of Households

-17.2%-2.0%-15.5%Onondaga

-0.5%-2.2%1.7%Trade Area


65,67567,02179,308Onondaga

569582572Trade Area

Count of Households2004




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20

Middle to Upper Income TrendMiddle to Upper Income TrendCount of HouseholdsCount of Households

20.8%5.2%14.8%Onondaga

21.8%6.0%14.9%Trade Area


131,763125,256109,082Onondaga

738696606Trade Area

Count of Households

2004

Count of Households

2000

Count of Households

1990


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21

Concentration of Middle IncomeConcentration of Middle Income



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22

Middle Income ComparisonMiddle Income Comparison

Middle Income Households per Square Mile

84

627

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700


Onondaga County

Trade Area



www.metro-edge.com


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23

Middle to Upper Income HouseholdsMiddle to Upper Income Households

Middle to Upper Income Households per Square Mile

169

813

050

100150200250

300350400450500550600650700750800850900


Onondaga County

Trade Area



www.metro-edge.com


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24

Income DistributionIncome Distribution

Household Annual Income Distribution

16%12% 12%

15%19%

12% 14%

50%

18% 16%

6% 5% 4% 2%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

Less than

$15,000

$15,000 to

$24,999

$25,000 to

$34,999

$35,000 to

$50,000

$50,000 to

$75,000

$75,000 to

$100,000

$100,000 plus

Fraction

ofHouseholds

Compar

Trade A



www.metro-edge.com


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25

Comparison of Trade Area withComparison of Trade Area with

Suburban Census TractSuburban Census Tract

*Tract ID: 36067012800*a suburban tract next to the lake (just outside the city limits)

5754615Population Density

779101Concentrated Middle Class

$ 82,585,564$ 8,462,203Concentrated Buying Power

$ 25,931$ 50,044Median Household Income

Syracuse CityComparison Tract*



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26

EducationEducation

2.22%0.88%36067

Onondaga County:

-9.14%-3.69%Total

-7.74%-0.28%36067005400

-11.35%-1.16%36067005300

-8.33%-11.97%36067004200

Population 25+ yearsold with an associatesdegree or higher persquare mile

Percent of Population25+ years old w/associates degree orhigherID

Change 2000 to 2004Trade Area:



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27

CrimeCrime Current YearCurrent YearCurrent Year Crimes (per 1,000 people)

9

45

16

65

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Violent Crimes Property Crimes

City of Syracuse

Salina Trade Area

Source: Local Crime Data

MetroEdge, 2230 South Michigan Ave. Suite 200, Chicago,

IL 60616


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28

Crime TrendsCrime Trends

Change in Crime 2002-2003

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

City of Syracuse

Salina Trade Area

City of Syracuse -8.17% 3.03%

Salina Trade

Area

-33.76% 20.79%

Violent Crimes Property Crimes

Source: Local Crime Data


IL 60616


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29

New Purchase LoansNew Purchase Loans

HMDA 2003 New Purchase Loans per 1,000 Households

36

20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Onondaga County

Trade Area

Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 2003


www.metro-edge.com


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30

New Purchase Loans Trade AreaNew Purchase Loans Trade Area

New Purchase Loans, 1993-2003

26.00 2521

15 14

19

26

1210

2 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Count

loans

Sourc e: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 1993-2003

MetroEdge, 2230 South Michigan Ave, Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60616

www.metro-edge.com


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New Purchase Loans Onondaga CountyNew Purchase Loans Onondaga County

New Purchase Loans, 1993-2003

4,544

5,4025,137

4,9565,259

5,654 5,494

6,023 6,011

6,501 6,638

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Count

loans

Comparison Loans

Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 1993-2003


www.metro-edge.com


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Rehab LoansRehab Loans

HMDA 2003 Rehab Loans per 1,000 Households

6

2

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00


Onondaga County

Trade Area



www.metro-edge.com


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Rehab Loans Trade AreaRehab Loans Trade Area

Rehab Loans, 1993-2003

13.00

20

26

19

12

20

13

6 79

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Countloans

Trade Area LoansSource: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 1993-2003


www.metro-edge.com


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34

Rehab Loans Onondaga CountyRehab Loans Onondaga County

Rehab Loans, 1993-2003

2,052

2,530

2,191 2,222 2,1042,246

2,096 2,149

1,6541,495

1,187

0200

400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,800

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Countloans

Comparison LoansSource: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 1993-2003


www.metro-edge.com


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35

Refinance LoansRefinance Loans

HMDA 2003 Refinance Loans per 1,000 Households

69

70

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75


Onondaga County

Trade Area



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Refinance Loans Trade AreaRefinance Loans Trade Area

Refinance Loans, 1993-2003

15.00 159 9

1620

50

3124

17 16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Countloans

Trade Area LoansSource: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 1993-2003


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BUILDING PERMITSBUILDING PERMITS

Building Permits, All Types (per 1,000 people)

3432

30

39 37

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2002 2003 2004

City of Syracuse

Salina Trade Area

Source: Building Permit Data


IL 60616


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BUILDING PERMITSBUILDING PERMITS

Change in Building Permits, 2002-2004

-10.4%

-31.9%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%Change, 2002-2004

City of Syracuse

Salina Trade Area

Source: Building Permits Data


IL 60616


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Traffic CountsTraffic Counts

Castle & Salina Brighton & Salina


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Retail Float By Zip CodeRetail Float By Zip Code


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Retail Float by Sector: Sales by Sq. ft.Retail Float by Sector: Sales by Sq. ft.

Source: Claritas [ 2004], International Council of Shopping Centers [2003] and MetroEdge Calculations

3,6263971,439,493Apparel and Accessory Stores

-18,542410-7,602,069Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores

1,7676311,115,269Household Appliances, Radio & TV Stores

4,5246863,103,264Food Stores

5,1494072,095,489Drug and Proprietary Stores

7,3965434,016,069Eating and Drinking Places

9,5983923,762,494Hardware/Building Materials

EstimatedSquareFootage

Sales PerSquareFoot

AdjustedfloatCategory

Based on average sales per square ft in each category, there is opportunityfor small to medium size retailers in hardware, restaurants, food stores, andappliances, without drawing customers from outside the Trade Area.


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Salina & Brighton ProfileSalina & Brighton Profile


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Salina & Castle ProfileSalina & Castle Profile


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University Trade AreaUniversity Trade Area


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Service Sector GapService Sector Gap -- UniversityUniversity

5.210.830.360.000.36Schools and Educational Services, NEC

3.090.840.360.000.36Automotive Services, Except Repair and Carwashes

1.900.880.380.000.38Photographic Studios, Portrait

7.240.890.390.000.39Computer Integrated Systems Design

4.310.890.390.000.39Tax Return Preparation Services

3.360.950.410.000.41Offices and Clinics of Chiropractors

14.711.130.490.000.49Computer Processing and Data Preparation and Processing

Services

10.191.150.500.000.50Business Consulting Services, NEC

8.701.160.500.000.50Architectural Services

43.091.230.530.000.53Hotels and Motels

31.531.610.700.000.70Engineering Services

6.791.950.850.431.28Miscellaneous Personal Services, NEC

19.822.090.910.000.91Building Cleaning and Maintenance Services, NEC

12.882.160.940.431.37Offices and Clinics of Dentists

19.882.230.970.431.40Business Services, NEC

22.502.250.980.000.98Accounting, Auditing, and Bookkeeping Services

17.012.861.241.302.54Beauty Shops

44.976.342.750.433.18Legal Services

GAPTrade AreaCounty

Employee

GAP

Additional

Potential

for

Establish

ments

Establishments Per 1000 People

Service Sector



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Employee

GAP

Additional

Potential for

Establishments


Service Sector GAPTrade AreaCounty

2.650.460.200.000.20Electrical and Electronic Repair Shops, NEC

13.920.480.210.000.21Detective, Guard, and Armored Car Services

3.410.480.210.000.21Carpet and Upholstery Cleaning

7.220.500.220.000.22Public Golf Courses

5.440.500.220.000.22Advertising Agencies

4.150.510.220.000.22Computer Maintenance and Repair

1.280.540.230.000.23Motion Picture and Video Tape Production

9.080.550.240.871.11Amusement and Recreation Services, NEC

3.650.580.250.000.25Help Supply Services

4.340.630.270.000.27Offices and Clinics of Optometrists

5.980.650.280.000.28Health and Allied Services, NEC

4.860.650.280.000.28Equipment Rental and Leasing, NEC

4.280.700.300.000.30Carwashes

3.750.700.300.000.30Garment Pressing, and Agents for Laundries and Drycleaners

9.800.710.310.000.31Employment Agencies

10.680.750.330.000.33Commercial Physical and Biological Research

8.900.790.340.000.34Physical Fitness Facilities2.910.800.350.000.35Commercial Art and Graphic Design

31.360.830.360.000.36Labor Unions and Similar Labor Organizations

Service Sector GapService Sector Gap UniversityUniversity



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Employee

GAP

Additional

Potential for

Establishments


Service Sector GAPTrade AreaCounty

2.150.380.160.000.16Surveying Services

2.100.380.160.000.16Disinfecting and Pest Control Services

3.290.390.170.000.17Management Services

2.380.390.170.000.17Offices and Clinics of Podiatrists

0.740.390.170.000.17Commercial Photography

21.250.410.180.000.18Home Health Care Services

1.060.410.180.000.18Dance Studios, Schools, and Halls

3.660.410.180.000.18Truck Rental and Leasing, Without Drivers

1.640.410.180.000.18Secretarial and Court Reporting Services

0.950.430.180.430.62Bands, Orchestras, Actors, and Other Entertainersand Entertainment Groups

2.210.440.190.000.19Advertising, NEC

12.710.450.200.000.20Medical Laboratories

-8.950.450.200.871.06Management Consulting Services

Service Sector GapService Sector Gap -- UniversityUniversity



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CensusCensus

TractTractBoundariesBoundaries

and theand the



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CensusCensus


and theand the


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Zip CodeZip Code

BoundariesBoundaries

and theand the



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CensusCensus


and theand the


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Market Analysis: South Salina Street Corridor, Syracuse, NY

For internal audience only1

Market Analysis: South Salina Street CorridorSyracuse, NY

Phase One

I.BACKGROUND

MetroEdge, a market research company specialized in urban markets, has beencommissioned by Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation to conduct an analysis of thepotential for retail development in the South Salina Street corridor focus area of

Syracuse, New York. The South Salina Street corridor is within the GatewayNeighborhood. This work is being done in coordination with the City of SyracuseEconomic and Community Development Departments, Home Headquarters, NRCaffiliated and local neighborhood groups, Gateway Community Corporation and theGateway Business Association, collectively referred to herein as the Core Team.

Purpose of the Work

The purpose of the final study material is to provide a retail market analysis of the tradearea using both local and national data as well as business, community and consultant

observations. The final report, which will be presented in story board form, is to be usedby the City of Syracuse, The Gateway Business Association, and the GatewayCommunity Corporation in future conversations with potential investors, developers andretailers as well as local constituencies interested in improving the retail opportunities inthe trade area.

Other objectives of this work and particularly subsequent phases are:

Educate community and investors about the potential and the challenges ofthe Gateway area and the roles of both the south community andbusinesses in building a healthy neighborhood.

Attract initial development and investment opportunities. Support Core Team to choose action steps to advance development of the

area.

1 This is the Phase 1 report only and is intended for internal use. This is not the final study report. AsMetroEdge proceeds to Phase 2, we would welcome illustrations and examples of other success,opportunities or challenges. Those cited here are not meant to be comprehensive.

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This Phase 1 Report outlines MetroEdges initial findings and suggested next steps. Perthe contract, the City of Syracuse in consultation with the Core Team and MetroEdgeshould discuss this outline and come to a mutual decision on whether or not to proceed toPhase 2 and 3.

The Core Team:

Project funder -Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation: National nonprofitorganization created by Congress to provide financial support, technicalassistance, and training for community-based revitalization efforts.

Coordinating client -City of Syracuse: Department of CommunityDevelopment led by Commissioner Fernando Ortiz, Jr.

Support - Home HeadQuarters: a local nonprofit organization and NRCaffiliate, dedicated to revitalizing and stabilizing neighborhoods in Syracuse and

Onondaga County. Their main focus is housing opportunities in the city andparticularly for first time homebuyers. They are working actively in theGateway area. It has been engaged by the City to support the process.

Community organization - Gateway Community Development Corporation: arecently organized CDC focused on the development and representation of thearea surrounding and including the South Salina Street corridor.

Business Association Conformed by business people who either havebusinesses in the area or are interested in the development of the Gatewaycommunity.

Scope of work

The scope of work consists of three phases:

Phase 1 Initial Market Assessment: Analysis of national market data, definitionof trade area, and initial assessment of retail opportunity.

Phase 2 Retail Potential Analysis: Study of opportunity by retail category,nearby competition and service sector needs. Analysis of local data and on-the-groundinformation.

Phase 3 Marketing Package: Creation of document with highlights of retailopportunity in the trade area, which will support team to educate community and initiate

conversations with potential investors.

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II. INITIAL MARKET ASSESSMENT

Purpose of Phase One

This report outlines an initial retail market assessment of the area intended to determinewhether the potential for development in the trade area is sufficient to move to a secondand third phase of work.

Methodology

1. Site visit On February 15 of 2005, the MetroEdge team (Cynthia Luna andHelen Dunlap) and Larry Kilduff, a commercial development consultant, visited

Syracuse, toured around the area and met with the Core Team, key stakeholdersand potential partners, to learn first hand about the area and the issues ofimportance to each team member.

2. Analysis MetroEdge did an analysis of national datasets (Claritas and others) ofthe focus area and the city, including: population change, population density, age,race and ethnicity, income, float, concentrated middle income, concentration ofbuying power and housing tenure.

3. Local Data Some local data was received as part of this phase and was alsoreviewed in the course of the analysis.

Initial Recommendation

Based on this analysis, MetroEdge recommends proceeding with Phase 2 and 3. Thisrecommendation is predicated on a fuller discussion and commitment by the Core Teamregarding next steps focused in who will champion the critical education and communitymarketing.

III. FINDINGS & OBSERVATIONS

The findings and observations are based on the initial assessment work and are not meantto be comprehensive. Metro Edge would welcome additional examples particularly ofkey opportunities or challenges.

1. Site Visit Geographic OverviewThe Core Team defined the trade area as the South Salina Street corridor, withboundaries of Adams on the north, Brighton on the south, Midland on the west andHighway 81 on the east.

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The South Salina Street corridor is part of a principal transit route connecting Syracusesdowntown with the citys southern neighborhoods, resulting in good traffic counts.

The development from downtown is interrupted at Taylor Street, where a bridge withtrain tracks divides of downtown and the south side of the city. This division acts as abarrier to the continuity of development north of the railroad bridge.

Regardless of this division, MetroEdge observed successful businesses south of the traintracks, such as Kentucky Fried Chicken, just south of Furman Street, with profits over 2million dollars (one of the most successful KFCs in the region), and Dunk and Bright, atthe corner of Salina St and Brighton, a furniture store that attracts clients from all overthe region. The corridor has other retailers and service providers including Burger Kingand the Family Dollar Store, Key Bank, Library, Post Office and Syracuse CommunityHealth Center.

In addition to the retail businesses and services on the corridor, there also are some lightmanufacturing and processing businesses that have been in the neighborhood for manyyears, some of them are: Byrne Dairy, Coyne Textile, G.C. Hanford Manufacturing,HSM Packaging Corporation.

Two blocks on South Salina Street have been recognized as being part of a HistoricDistrict. These blocks include several historic homes which, although they needrehabilitation, represent an opportunity. There are numerous vacant and underdevelopedsites along the corridor, in particular north of Kennedy. Castle Street currently serves asaccess to the University from the Gateway area. In addition to the homes in the area, theSouth Side Presbterian Church located at the corner of Salina and Colvin is a center ofcommunity activity.

East of the neighborhood is a freeway (81) and just on the other side for several blocks isSyracuse University with 12,447 undergraduate students as well as graduate students,faculty and administrative personnel.

2. AnalysisDefinitions

Median Household Income: Median annual Household Income

Concentrated Buying Power: Potential dollars available to be spent in retail stores byconsumers who live the study area per square mile

Concentrated Middle Income: Total number of households with annual householdincome between $25K and $60K, per square mile

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Population Density: Population count for the study area per square mile

* Please note that a complete glossary of terms will be included in the final report.

Data

The City of Syracuse has a geographic area of 26 square miles, a population of over147,306 people

2, median household income of $25,931 and concentration of buying

power of $82,585,5643

per square mile.

Density plays an important factor in looking at the opportunity in the city. If we compareSyracuse with tract 36067012800 (Town of Geddes), located next to the lake (just outsidethe city limits) in the suburbs, we can see the opportunity in the buying power andnumber of middle class households per square mile. This tract is used as sample of areasnorth of the City. It is not meant to suggest that this tract is a statistically rigorouscomparison.

A quick scan of this representative comparison shows the misconception that there aremore households of means in the suburban areas than in what has been traditionallyperceived to be a poor inner city community of color. The comparision demonstates thediversity of the city and the potential economic energy within the neighborhoods. Inessence these simple calculations illustrate that there are more middle income householdsin the area than in the suburbs and more buying power (retail dollars to be spent) in thearea than the average for either the comparison or other city census tracts. This would becritical to an investor or a retailer.

Table 1 Comparison Syracuse City and Suburban Census Tract

Comparison Tract* Syracuse City

Median Household Income $ 50,044 $ 25,931

Concentrated Buying Power $ 8,462,203 $ 82,585,564

Concentrated Middle Class 101 779

Population Density 615 5754

*Tract ID: 36067012800

Table 2 Trade Area Data Analysis

Trade AreaCensus Tracts

MedianHouseholdIncome

PopulationDensity*

ConcentratedMiddleIncome*

ConcentratedBuying Power*

36067004200 $14,999 5,697 427 $79,609,677

2 2000 US Census Bureau3 Claritas Population Facts 2004

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36067005300 $14,999 6,202 433 $68,734,264

36067005400 $21,134 9,969 1037 $114,153,408

* Per square mile

Table 3 Trade Area Retail Float

Float is a representation of dollars being spent outside the area for goods and services

by residents of the community.

Trade Area Zip Codes Retail Float

13202 ($62,669,781)

13205 $122, 751,307

The trade area south of Castle presents significant potential opportunity for retaildevelopment. The positive data found in the south tract is a consequence of its populationdensity, which is 9,969 per square mile vs. only 5,754 per square mile in the City of

Syracuse. As a result the concentration of middle class in the south tract of the trade areais 1037 and concentration of buying power of $114,153,408 over $31 million abovethe concentration of buying power of the City of Syracuse.

The retail float numbers also point to the south of the trade area for future development.Zip code 13205, located in the trade area just south of Castle Street has $122,751,307 ofretail float, and even though float is positive there, it is greater in the zip codes east andwest of the trade area. Therefore, further analysis would determine the real opportunity.

The population in Onondaga County is primarily white (81.8%), and 10.0% black, 3.2%Hispanic, and 2.8% Asian. The African-American community is located in zip codes

south and straight east of downtown Syracuse, excluding the University area zip codes.The Gateway trade area is located in zip codes south of downtown, where there is a largeAfrican-American population.

Major Investors

Over the past ten years there has been over $25 million invested in the area. Some ofthese investors are: The Syracuse Housing Authority, Syracuse School District, SalvationArmy, Department of Community Development, Central New York Services, Gifford

and Community Foundations, Syracuse Model Neighborhood (housing revitalization) andSoutheast Gateway Community Development Corporation.

The regional transportation authority CENTRO has its headquarters in the Gateway tradearea. Transit is a critical component for community linkage.

Additionally, there has been private investment in recent years by major businessesincluding Byrne Dairy, Dunk and Bright and Coyne Textiles, plus other businesses in the

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adjacent business park. Each of these owners has made a conscious decision to be wherethey are in this community. Over 1,653 employees work in the area.

The Department of Community Development has provided funding as part of the City

Capital Plan for streetscape improvements over the past three years to improve thephysical condition of the corridor.

University of Syracuse: Located just east of the Gateway trade area, with CastleStreet as an access to the main campus. It serves over 12,000 undergraduatestudents in addition to graduate students, faculty and administrative staff. TheUniversity has demonstrated the linkage between its mission of education and thedowntowns goal of economic health and diversity. To take that commitment southwill require concentrated engagement which the University has indicated an interestin provided it is clearly linked to the learning outcomes of a university.

Gifford: The Neighborhood Initiative commenced with inclusive dialogs andresulted in the creation of an organization called Southside Neighborhood ActionGroup (SNAG). SNAG is led by project coordinator Steven Muhammad and anadvisory committee comprised of neighborhood residents and members of theSouthside Neighborhood Association, Interfaith Housing, and the SoutheastGateway Community Development Corporation, among others. They identified a30 block area in one of the poorest sections of inner city Syracuse, an areadisenfranchised both physically and fiscally, as their focus for revitalization.

Central New York Community Foundation: The Central New York CommunityFoundation is a union of many gifts and bequests contributed by the people of our

community for the benefit of our community. A few examples are:o Alliance of Communities Transforming Syracuse - 9/29/2004

support an economic development summit and voter education workshopsfor residents of Syracuse.amount: $15,000.00 General Fund

o Home Headquarters, Inc. - 9/19/2001Conduct urban vacant land s

Documents

Metro EDGE Study