locusts & systems

meteorological data

solutions & challenges

locusts & systems

meteorological data

solutions & challenges

Meteorological information forlocust monitoring & control

Meteorological information forlocust monitoring & control

Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting Officer 9 April 2006

Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting Officer 9 April 2006

Desert Locust countriesDesert Locust countries

Invasion area = 32 million km2 (20% of world land mass)

25 key (front-line) countries

Invasion area = 32 million km2 (20% of world land mass)

25 key (front-line) countries

summerwinter

springRecession area = 16 million km2Recession area = 16 million km2

Desert Locust biologyDesert Locust biology

25d 14d 30 days

summer (Sudan interior + IND/PAK)

winter (Red Sea coasts)

spring (PAK/IRN)

25d 14d 30 days

summer (Sudan interior + IND/PAK)

winter (Red Sea coasts)

spring (PAK/IRN)

a e h

Desert Locust phase changeDesert Locust phase change

Individual locusts= no threatIndividual locusts= no threat

solitarioussolitarious

Desert Locust phase changeDesert Locust phase change

Individual locusts= no threatIndividual locusts= no threat

solitarioussolitarious

Grouping & concentration= increasing threatGrouping & concentration= increasing threat

transienstransiens

Desert Locust phase changeDesert Locust phase change

Individual locusts= no threatIndividual locusts= no threat

solitarioussolitarious

Grouping & concentration= increasing threatGrouping & concentration= increasing threat

transienstransiens

hopper bands & swarms (gregarious) = THREAT!

gregariousgregarious

Desert Locust migrationDesert Locust migration

recessions: move within regionsoutbreaks/upsurges/plagues: move across continentsrecessions: move within regionsoutbreaks/upsurges/plagues: move across continents

summerwinter

spring

Desert Locust programmesDesert Locust programmes

OutputsNational (Locust Control Centres)

Regional (FAO Commissions)

International (FAO HQ)monthly bulletins

interim updates

warnings

• assess situation

• forecast (6 weeks – 6 months)

• advise NLCCs / donors

• national strengthening

field data

10-day sit reps

monthly bulletins

• assess situation

• forecasts (short)

• plan surveys and control ops

Desert Locust information flowDesert Locust information flow

International -

National -

Field -

International -

National -

Field -

FAO Desert LocustInformation Service (DLIS)

Locust Control Centre

survey and control teams

FAO Desert LocustInformation Service (DLIS)

Locust Control Centre

survey and control teams

( RAMSES data files, reports )

( forms, eLocust2 data files )

Direct two-way communication

National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS

Direct two-way communication

National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS

Desert Locust networkDesert Locust network

FAO DLISFAO DLIS

Weather data and Desert LocustsWeather data and Desert Locusts

12 h

dailydecadalmonthly

dailydecadalmonthly

Actual UseForecastData

migrationdirectionspeedheight

Wind

maturationmigrationplanning

+1 day+10 day+30 dayseasonal

min/maxTemperature

breedingmigrationplanning

+1 day+10 day+30 dayseasonal

totalRainfall

Weather thresholdsWeather thresholds

> 25 mm in two consecutive monthsunusual events

> 20°C (egg & hopper development)> 20°C (take-off)> 18°C (sustained flight)0 - 50°C (survival range)13 - 45°C (active range)

< 10 m/s (take-off; control limits)10 - 2000 m (migration heights)

> 25 mm in two consecutive monthsunusual events

> 20°C (egg & hopper development)> 20°C (take-off)> 18°C (sustained flight)0 - 50°C (survival range)13 - 45°C (active range)

< 10 m/s (take-off; control limits)10 - 2000 m (migration heights)

RainRain

TempTemp

WindWind

Who collects & needs weather data?Who collects & needs weather data?

Survey teams (on site) collect rain dataSurvey teams (on site) collect rain data

Control teams (on site)wind direction & speedControl teams (on site)wind direction & speed

FAO DLISanalysis & forecastingFAO DLISanalysis & forecasting

NLCCsanalysis & planning field opsNLCCsanalysis & planning field ops

ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station

61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN

61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN

61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN

62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD

62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD

62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD

62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD

62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD

62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD

62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD

62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD

62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains• US Navy• NOAA Africa data• IBIMET• other web sites

vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS)

RAMSES GIS

Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)

very few stations in the desert where locusts breed

Libya

Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)

Insufficient number of rainfall stationsInsufficient number of rainfall stations

very few stations in the desert where locusts breed

Libya spring summer1500 km

20 stations / 2.3 million km2

Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)

Insufficient number of rainfall stationsInsufficient number of rainfall stations

very few stations in the desert where locusts breed

Libya spring summer1500 km

20 stations / 2.3 million km2

13 stations

3

1000 km

Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)

Insufficient number of rainfall stationsInsufficient number of rainfall stations

very few stations in the desert where locusts breed

Libya spring summer1500 km

20 stations / 2.3 million km2

13 stations

3

1000 km

7 stations

Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station

61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN

61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN

61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN

62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD

62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD

62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD

62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD

62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD

62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD

62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD

62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD

62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD

Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station

61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN

61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN

61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN

62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD

62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD

62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD

62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD

62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD

62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD

62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD

62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD

62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD

Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

increase rain data?

reduce transmission errors?

indicate data requirements?

regional workshop

increase rain data?

reduce transmission errors?

indicate data requirements?

regional workshop

Potential solutionsPotential solutions

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not use data

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station

61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN

61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN

61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN

62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD

62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD

62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD

62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD

62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD

62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD

62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD

62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD

62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD

This workshop’s challenges …This workshop’s challenges …

what decisions do NLCCs make that require meteo data ?

what data is needed (frequency, type, format) ?

what can NMHSs provide ?

how can any gaps be filled ?

what decisions do NLCCs make that require meteo data ?

what data is needed (frequency, type, format) ?

what can NMHSs provide ?

how can any gaps be filled ?

Keith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting OfficerKeith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting Officer