locusts & systems

rain, temperature, wind

solutions & challenges

locusts & systems

rain, temperature, wind

solutions & challenges

Meteorological information forlocust control operations

Meteorological information forlocust control operations

Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting Officer

19 April 2005

Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting Officer

19 April 2005

Desert Locust countriesDesert Locust countries

2 / 14

Invasion area = 32 million km2 (20% of world land mass)

25 key (front-line) countries

Invasion area = 32 million km2 (20% of world land mass)

25 key (front-line) countries

summer

winter

springRecession area = 16 million km2Recession area = 16 million km2

Desert Locust biologyDesert Locust biology

3 / 14

summer (W Africa)

25d 14d 30 days (2-3 months: July-Nov)

spring (NW Africa)

150 days 35 days 35 days (2.5-7 months: Oct-Mar / Apr-Jun)

summer (W Africa)

25d 14d 30 days (2-3 months: July-Nov)

spring (NW Africa)

150 days 35 days 35 days (2.5-7 months: Oct-Mar / Apr-Jun)

adults invade egg hopper

a e h

Grouping & concentration= increasing threatGrouping & concentration= increasing threat

transienstransiens

Individual locusts= no threatIndividual locusts= no threat

solitarioussolitarious

Desert Locust phase changeDesert Locust phase change

4 / 14

gregariousgregarious

hopper bands & swarms (gregarious) = THREAT!

Desert Locust migrationDesert Locust migration

5 / 14

recessions: Sahel (summer)

Outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: Sahel (summer) + NWA (spring)

recessions: Sahel (summer)

Outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: Sahel (summer) + NWA (spring)

summer

winter

spring

Desert Locust programmesDesert Locust programmes

6 / 14

National (Locust Control Centres)

Outputs

• assess situation• forecasts (short)• plan surveys and control ops

field data

10-day sit reps

monthly bulletins

Regional (FAO Commissions)• national strengthening

International (FAO HQ)• assess situation• forecast (6 weeks – 6 months)• advise NLCCs / donors

monthly bulletins

interim updates

warnings

Desert Locust information flowDesert Locust information flow

7 / 14

International -

National -

Field -

International -

National -

Field -

FAO Desert LocustInformation Service (DLIS)

Locust Control Centre

survey and control teams

FAO Desert LocustInformation Service (DLIS)

Locust Control Centre

survey and control teams

( RAMSES data files, reports )

( forms, eLocust data files )

Direct two-way communication

National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS

Direct two-way communication

National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS

Desert Locust networkDesert Locust network

8 / 14

FAO DLISFAO DLIS

Weather data and Desert LocustsWeather data and Desert Locusts

9 / 14

Data Actual Forecast Use

Rainfall total daily

decadal

monthly

+1 day

+10 day

+30 day

seasonal

breeding

migration

planning

Temperatur

e

min/max daily

decadal

monthly

+1 day

+10 day

+30 day

seasonal

maturation

migration

planning

Wind direction

speed

height

12 h migration

Weather thresholdsWeather thresholds

10 / 14

> 25 mm in two consecutive monthsunusual events

> 20°C (egg & hopper development)> 20°C (take-off)> 18°C (sustained flight)

< 10 m/s (take-off)10 - 2000 m (migration heights)

> 25 mm in two consecutive monthsunusual events

> 20°C (egg & hopper development)> 20°C (take-off)> 18°C (sustained flight)

< 10 m/s (take-off)10 - 2000 m (migration heights)

RainRain

TempTemp

WindWind

ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station

61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN

61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN

61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN

62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD

62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD

62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD

62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD

62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD

62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD

62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD

62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD

62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD

Tools available to NLCCsTools available to NLCCs

11 / 14

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains

• US Navy

• NOAA Africa data

• IBIMET

• other web sites

SPOT vegetation imagery

RAMSES GIS

rainfall station reports

estimate / forecast rains

• US Navy

• NOAA Africa data

• IBIMET

• other web sites

SPOT vegetation imagery

RAMSES GIS

Primary rainfall stations (GTS)Primary rainfall stations (GTS)

Senegal

Mauritania

Mali

Niger Chad

BurkinaFaso

Algeria

Tunisia

Morocco

7 rainfall stations in 1.1 million km27 rainfall stations in 1.1 million km2 12 / 14

summer breeding area

Tamanrassett

Agadez

B.B. Mokhtar

Menaka

Gao

Tessalit

Kidal

1300 km

900 km

Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses

13 / 14

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not make use of data

• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not make use of data

• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

increase rains stations?

reduce transmission errors?

indicate data requirements?

use forecast products?

regional workshop

increase rains stations?

reduce transmission errors?

indicate data requirements?

use forecast products?

regional workshop

Potential solutionsPotential solutions

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not make use of data

• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

• poor rain station coverage

• national station data incomplete / errors

• NLCC does not make use of data

• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products

• weak NLCC / NMHS link

ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station

61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN

61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN

61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN

62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD

62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD

62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD

62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD

62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD

62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD

62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD

62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD

62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD

This week’s challenges …This week’s challenges …

improve NMHS support to NLCCs

provide useful weather data

improve weather forecasts

improve NMHS support to NLCCs

provide useful weather data

improve weather forecasts

Keith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting OfficerKeith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting Officer