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Meteorological Analysis and Prediction Laboratory

a.k.a. “The Forecasting Lab” – Who we are

Kevin Hill Ph.D student (MS)

Kelly Mahoney Ph.D. student (MS)

Christian Cassell (MS)

Gary Lackmann Megan Gentry

Ph.D. student (MS)

Richard Barnhill undergrad researcher

Also (not pictured):

Adam Baker (MS)

Blair Holloway (MS)

Morgan Silverman (MS)

Chris Hill (Ph.D.)

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Meteorological Analysis & Prediction Laboratory

Objectives: Enhance understanding & improve forecasting of high-impact weather systems via

observational and theoretical analysis, formulation & refinement of conceptual

models, & improvements to NWP models

Collaborations with NCEP, NWS emphasized

NWP Models Tropical Cyclones Winter Storms Flood Forecasting

What we do…

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What we study…Lake-effect snowstorm, Buffalo, NY

Convective storms, Apex, NC

Flash flood, Centennial Campus

Hurricane Opal, Gulf of Mexico ‘95

Ice storm during cold-air damming, 2002, Apex NC

Quebec ice storm, 1/’97

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Use of Numerical Models… Numerical models increasingly used in weather

analysis & prediction

In high-impact events (rare), model assumptions not always justified

Objectives and approach:- Diagnose, understand atmospheric processes in high impact weather

events

- Examine process representation in model atmosphere

- Seek ways to improve model, ideally leading to more accurate forecasts or simulations

- Alert model users to deficiencies, process recognition

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Identifying Research Problems Sometimes brought to us by NWS forecasters; more likely

to notice when model predictions fail in given situations: Appalachian cold-air damming Ice storms Heavy precipitation events Convective storms

Sometimes discover missing or misrepresented processes via other means: Precipitation mass sink effect Representing turbulence over windy oceans, esp. during

hurricanes

Combination of theoretical analysis, modeling, observational analysis: improve understanding, develop practical applications

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Example of Past Collaboration: Ice Storms

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Current Research Projects

NOAA Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research program (CSTAR)

3 Consecutive awards spanning ~10 years Project involves 10 regional NWS offices Many student thesis projects have led to:

Operational forecasting improvements

Employment opportunities in the NWS

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Current Research Projects

DOE Climate Change ProgramDOE Climate Change Program

Collaboration with Drs. Semazzi, Xie, Aiyyer Novel means of assessing future TC activity Use WRF model to answer the question:

What would the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season have been like in 2105?

Example WRF domain showing coverage of Atlantic MDR for a 36-km model simulation.

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NSF Convection project (collaboration with Dr. Parker) Convective system motion is complex; forecasting

challenge Accurate forecasts important: Precipitation, severe weather Interested in convective momentum transport: role in MCS

motion? Absent in some operational model parameterizations

Corfidi 1996, 2003

Current Research Projects

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Involved with Unidata program, emphasis on geoscience education, visualization software, multi-disciplinary focus

Currently involved with governance at Unidata

Current Activities

Idealized simulation of Hurricane:

3-D isosurfaces of potential temperature (blue), rainwater (yellow), and plan plot of SLP generated with Unidata’s Integrated Data Viewer (IDV)

The GEON-IDV is freely available, and offers exciting 3-D graphics capabilities.

This image shows earthquake locations under Mt. St. Helens

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2006 Summer workshop, with 80 Geoscience educators Theme was “Models as Educational Tools” See article in July BAMS for more details

Current Activities

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Models as Teaching Tools

Idealized model simulation, small initial disturbance

Idealized model simulation, larger initial disturbance

Topic: Scales of atmospheric adjustment, Rossby radius of deformation, tropical cyclogenesis

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Philosophies and Emphases

Encourage graduate students to help write proposals, especially for Ph.D. students

Support undergraduate research

Collaborate with NWS forecasters, scientists at National Centers (NCEP/HPC, NSSL/SPC)

I like to stay involved in the research Why should students have all the fun? Or, am I just a micromanager?

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Typically 1- 4 undergraduate research projects

Current Undergrad Researchers

Richard Barnhill

Bryce Tyner

Chris Webster

Mallory Nicholls

Monica Laureano (w/ SCO)

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Collaborations Lab located in RIII building, Centennial Campus –

facilitates interaction with NWS

Have also taken on consulting work with Progress Energy

Collaboration with scientists at National Centers (NCEP/HPC, NSSL/SPC)

Doing some work with RENCI (w/ SCO)

Collaboration with Greg Fishel, WRAL on NWP projects

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Where do our students get jobs?

National Weather Service field offices National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center

Private sector companies River Forecast Center Military services (Air Force)

Often “applied” interests; skills with modeling, data analysis and manipulation market well

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A typical day in the lab?

Snowbird, UT for the AMS conference in July…

Kevin likes to keep things neat in the lab

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What we do when computers misbehave…

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Acknowledgements

Amazingly good grad students

Collaborations with scientists at NWS, NSSL, NCEP, other agencies who have supported and utilized our research

Funding from the NSF, NOAA, NWS, and DOE has made it possible to organize this research group

Thanks to the GSA for organizing this symposium, and to you for your attention