T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 1

TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETE R

Mei 2013

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 2

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 3

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2* Jan Feb Maret Apr

2011 2012 2013 2013Sumber: BI, BPS, Roy Morgan, Danareksa, AC Nielsen

Kadin-Roy Morgan

BI

AC Nielsen

BPS

Danareksa

Indeks

penjualan eceran

penjualan sepeda motor

penjualan mobil

Total Lainnya

Sk.Cadang Otomotif Mamin Bensin

Rekreasi

Peralatan RT Komunikasi

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 4

Investasi - SKDU

Indeks Tendensi Bisnis (sk.kanan)

Konsumsi Semen (sk.kanan)

Impor Barang Konstruksi

Penjualan Alat Konstruksi Berat

IPI Prod.Mineral non Metal (sk.kanan)

PMTB:Bangunan (sk.kanan)

PMTB Mesin Konsumsi Listrik:Industri

Impor Mesin&Peralatan (sk.kanan) IPI Mesin

Impor Mesin kec. Transportasi (sk.kanan)

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 5

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 , Jan Feb Mar

2011 2012 2013 , 2013

Total

Pertambangan

Pertanian

Manufaktur

% yoy

PDB Ekspor(sk.kanan)

% yoy

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 , Jan Feb Mar

2011 2012 2013 , 2013

Total

Brg Modal

Brg Konsumsi

Bhn Baku

% yoy

PDB Impor

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 6

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 7

5.57

4.12

2.72

13.03

-10

-4

2

8

14

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91

011

12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12 1 2 3 4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CPI

Core

Administered Prices

Volatile Food

%, yoy %, yoy

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 8

60

65

70

75

80

Tw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IV

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan (SKDU)

%

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 9

Apr-13

Kontribusi (%, mtm)

Deflasi

Bawang Putih 0,18

Beras 0,06

Tomat 0,03

Cabe Rawit 0,03

Daging Ayam 0,02

Telur Ayam 0,01

Inflasi

Bawang Merah 0,07

Apel 0,04

Jeruk 0,03

Anggur 0,01

Cabe Merah 0,01

Sumber: BPS

Komoditas

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan

-08

Ap

r-0

8

Jul-

08

Oc

t-0

8

Jan

-09

Ap

r-0

9

Jul-

09

Oc

t-0

9

Jan

-10

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Oc

t-1

0

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jul-

11

Oc

t-1

1

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oc

t-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

%,yoy

Horti-20 Komoditas (Pengaturan RIPH & Penutupan Impor Sementara)

Horti-39 Komoditas (Pengaturan titik masuk, aspek keamanan, dll)

Komposit bawang

%, mtm Kontribusi (%, mtm)

Inflasi

Rokok kretek filter 0,44 0,01

Bahan Bakar Rumah Tangga 0,33 0,01

Rokok kretek filter 0,41 0,01

Sumber: BPS

KomoditasApr-13

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 10

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 11

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12

5.75

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

3.6

4.1

4.6

5.1

5.6

21-M

ar-1

2

10-A

pr-1

2

30-A

pr-1

2

20-M

ay-1

2

9-Ju

n-12

29-J

un-1

2

19-J

ul-1

2

8-Au

g-12

28-A

ug-1

2

17-S

ep-1

2

7-O

ct-1

2

27-O

ct-1

2

16-N

ov-1

2

6-D

ec-1

2

26-D

ec-1

2

15-J

an-1

3

4-Fe

b-13

24-F

eb-1

3

16-M

ar-1

3

5-Ap

r-13

25-A

pr-1

3

Vol DF O/N (RHS)

Vol PUAB O/N

BI Rate

rPUAB O/N

rDF O/N

% Rp T% Rp T% Rp T% Rp T

Avg Vol DF: Rp51,1 TRRT Vol PUAB : Rp11,7 T

rPUAB : 4,17%

Vol PUAB O/N (Skala Kanan) Vol DF O/N (Skala Kanan)

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 13

.

11.99

5,50

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

5

7

9

11

13

15

Jan-

05

Jul-

05

Jan-

06

Jul-

06

Jan-

07

Jul-

07

Jan-

08

Jul-

08

Jan-

09

Jul-

09

Jan-

10

Jul-

10

Jan-

11

Jul-

11

Jan-

12

Jul-

12

Jan-

13

Spread (Rhs) Credit rate Deposit rateBI rate Sb LPS

%

Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 6.48%

Per Mar 2013korelasi: rLPS dan rDep :0.89

korelasi ; BI rate dan rDep: 0.85

%

11

.49

11

.27

13

.58

11

.49

11

.29

13

.40

11

.45

11

.27

13

.22

11

.44

11

.24

13

.28

11

12

13

14

Sb KMK Sb KI Sb KK

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

%

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar

BI Rate 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75

Penjaminan Deposito 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50

Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang) 6.26 5.97 5.66 5.42 5.35 5.39 5.39 5.42 5.40 5.49 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51

Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK) 12.14 12.11 12.01 11.86 11.78 11.79 11.78 11.73 11.70 11.68 11.61 11.49 11.49 11.45 11.44

Kredit Investasi (KI) 11.73 11.69 11.62 11.56 11.51 11.46 11.42 11.35 11.36 11.29 11.24 11.27 11.29 11.27 11.24

Kredit Konsumsi (KK) 14.14 14.15 14.13 14.10 14.03 13.90 13.92 13.69 13.67 13.60 13.53 13.58 13.40 13.22 13.28

2013Suku Bunga (%)

2012

5,5

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 14

14.013.4

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep-

12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

M2 M1 BI Rate (RHS)%, yoy %, yoy

Per Mar 2013

Indikator

Utama Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar

Total Aset (T Rp) 3,598.7 3,628.1 3,708.7 3,745.1 3,827.4 3,891.1 3,902.5 3,923.8 4,009.4 4,028.8 4,103.5 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8

DPK (T Rp) 2,770.6 2,763.9 2,826.0 2,841.4 2,909.0 2,955.8 2,961.4 2,984.1 3,050.0 3,070.6 3,130.5 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1

Kredit * (T Rp) 2,160.2 2,203.0 2,266.2 2,317.2 2,386.1 2,452.9 2,470.1 2,510.6 2,555.9 2,585.4 2,631.0 2,742.7 2,687.4 2,742.7 2,792.7

LDR* (%) 78.8 79.7 80.2 81.6 82.0 83.0 83.4 84.1 83.8 84.2 84.0 84.7 83.9 85.5 86.1

NPLs Gross* (%) 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0

CAR (%) 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.0 17.9 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9

NIM (%) 6.1 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4

ROA (%) 3.7 3.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0

* tanpa channeling

2012 2013

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 15

22.16

14.765.75

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan

-08

Mar

-08

Mei

-08

Juli-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8Ja

n-0

9M

ar-0

9M

ei-0

9Ju

li-0

9Se

pt-

09

No

v-0

9Ja

n-1

0M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

l-1

0Se

p-1

0N

ov-

10

Jan

-11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

l-1

2Se

p-1

2N

ov-

12

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

Kredit DPK BI rate (RHS)%

Per Mar 2013 -10

0

10

20

30

40

50Total Kredit KMK

KI KK

% yoy

Per Maret 13

23,223,718,9

24.0

25.5

19.8

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-08

Jun

-08

No

v-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Sep

-09

Feb

-10

Jul-

10

Dec

-10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Au

g-1

2

Jan

-13

Total Kredit KMK KI KK% yoy

Per jan 2013

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 16

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Jan

-07

Ap

r-0

7Ju

l-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-0

9Ju

l-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

1Ju

l-1

1O

ct-1

1Ja

n-1

2A

pr-

12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

JCI BI RATE

1,9%

3,2%

-1,2%

1,4%

3,8%

-5,5%

8,5%

0,7%

-9,3%

4,7%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

IHSG

Infrastructure

Mining

Finance

Basic Industry

Misc. Industry

Consumption

Trade

Agriculture

Property

Monthly Changes

-0,20

-0,15

-0,10

-0,05

0,00

0,05

0,10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Deviasi Apr '13 and Maret '13 April 2013 Maret 2013

%

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

4

4,5

5

5,5

6

6,5

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30

Jan 2013 - Feb 2013 (mtm)Jan-13Feb-13

%bps

Tenor

3,39

9,50

3,48 3,37

5,50

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

ThaiLand Vietnam Philippine Malaysia Indonesia

Yield SBN

Inflation

%

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 17

(1.9)

1.4

5.2 5.8 5.3 4.1

2.8

(2.9)

(11.0)

1.4

(1.6)

5.7

7.3

(5.8)

(2.9)

4.1

(3.9)

(8.6)

3.7

(7.7)

3.5

(2.0)

5.5

(2.8)

0.6 2.0

(5.6)

4.4

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Jan

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Me

i

Jun

i

Juli

Agu

stu

s

Sep

t

Okt

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

2011 2012 2013

Short Term Medium Term

Long Term Imbal hasil SBN (skala kanan)

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 18

Apr Mei Juni Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr

SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM

Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) 3.93 4.24 4.32 4.46 4.54 4.67 4.75 4.77 4.80 4.84 4.86 4.87 -

Suku bunga deposito 1 bln 2) 5.42 5.35 5.39 5.39 5.42 5.40 5.49 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 -

Suku bunga deposito 3 bln 2) 6.00 5.89 5.76 5.67 5.61 5.69 5.66 5.81 5.76 5.89 5.92 5.64 -

JIBOR satu minggu 2) 3.81 3.83 4.10 4.17 4.29 4.24 4.27 4.29 4.32 4.30 4.28 4.28 -

IHSG Indeks 3) 4,181 3,833 3,956 4,142 4,060 4,263 4,350 4,276 4,317 4,454 4,796 4,941 5,034

BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)

Uang Primer 596,592 604,979 627,359 634,993 657,955 638,869 648,106 647,979 704,843 664,007 655,486 664,935 -

M1(C+D) 720,924 749,450 779,416 771,792 772,429 795,518 774,983 801,403 841,721 787,916 786,606 807,571 -

Uang Kartal (C) 290,861 294,768 314,670 315,375 327,059 325,566 326,119 327,069 361,967 326,885 321,541 328,684 -

Uang giral (D) 430,064 454,682 464,746 456,417 445,370 469,952 448,864 474,334 479,755 461,031 465,065 478,886 -

Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 2,927,259 2,992,057 3,050,355 3,054,534 3,089,011 3,125,533 3,161,726 3,205,129 3,304,645 3,265,869 3,277,426 3,277,426 -

Uang kuasi (T) 2,190,885 2,227,527 2,254,329 2,269,809 2,304,474 2,318,559 2,376,102 2,393,320 2,452,503 2,467,124 2,479,959 2,479,959 -

Uang kuasi (Rupiah) 1,887,124 1,900,824 1,915,625 1,926,046 1,960,339 1,968,062 2,009,812 2,022,975 2,092,654 2,095,427 2,105,861 2,123,895 -

Deposito 1,020,792 1,027,151 1,016,060 1,017,021 1,030,262 1,030,830 1,060,357 1,058,871 1,066,527 1,079,275 1,098,083 1,123,533 -

Tabungan Total 866,332 873,673 899,565 909,025 930,077 937,232 949,456 964,105 1,026,127 1,016,152 1,007,778 1,000,362 -

Deposito (Valas) 148,486 159,186 164,762 170,722 171,517 180,380 187,859 190,178 177,508 173,616 169,755 182,383 -

Simpanan Giro Valuta Asing 155,275 167,516 173,942 173,041 172,617 170,117 178,430 180,166 182,341 198,081 204,343 190,841 -

Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 15,450 15,081 16,610 12,932 12,108 11,457 10,640 10,406 10,420 10,829 10,861 12,132 -

Tagihan kepada Sektor Lainnya 2,519,946 2,586,786 2,653,871 2,668,447 2,696,876 2,758,170 2,791,363 2,833,571 2,920,934 2,897,711 2,921,209 2,969,119 -

Tagihan pada Sektor Swasta 2,230,960 2,289,504 2,361,812 2,378,914 2,406,188 2,471,071 2,504,939 2,504,347 2,584,819 2,556,620 2,571,080 2,615,049 -

Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) 0.21 0.07 0.62 0.70 0.95 0.01 0.16 0.07 0.54 1.03 0.75 0.63 -0.10

Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) 4.50 4.45 4.53 4.56 4.58 4.31 4.61 4.32 4.30 4.57 5.31 5.90 5.57

Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) 9,190 9,565 9,480 9,485 9,560 9,588 9,615 9,605 9,670 9,698 9,667 9,719 9,722

Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) 12,698 13,315 12,420 13,168 11,238 13,011 12,636 13,202 12,313 12,386 11,897 - -

Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) 12,381 13,363 12,918 13,282 10,366 11,733 13,053 12,479 11,715 11,608 11,619 - -

2013

Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) 6.2 6.1 6.0

Konsumsi 4.5 3.9 4.7

Investasi (PMTB) 9.8 7.3 5.9

Perubahan Stok -9.5 94.6 10.2

Ekspor -2.6 0.5 3.4

Impor -0.2 6.8 -0.4

1) minggu terakhir

2) rata-rata tertimbang

3) penutupan pada akhir periode

4) closed file

Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS

2013

Tw.I

5.6

SEKTOR KEUANGAN

11.3

12.5

H A R G A

SEKTOR EKSTERNAL

INDIKATOR KUARTALAN

2012

Tw.IV

2012

Tw.III

108.7

2.6

Tw.II

6.4