Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Financial Services
MEETING CONSUMER DEMAND FOR A BETTER WORLD FINANCIAL INNOVATION FOR A TRIPLE WIN FOR CONSUMERS, BANKS AND THE PLANET
AUTHORS
Ege Gurdeniz, Engagement Manager
Mark Ames, Partner
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The ideas in this report reflect the collaborative effort of many contributors across Oliver Wyman. The primary authors were Ege Gurdeniz and Mark Ames, supported by Sarah Alexander, Banna Girmay, Daniel Hermansson and Timothy Taylor. In addition, the authors received invaluable input from many partners across the firm, but in particular wish to acknowledge the help of Douglas Elliott, Aaron Fine, Ugur Koyluoglu, Anders Nemeth and Michael Zeltkevic.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 2
IMPACT CROWDFUNDING 7
POINT IMPACT: A NEW WAY TO USE CREDIT CARD POINTS 15
GREEN MORTGAGES 17
CHANGE FOR CHANGE: POOL YOUR CHANGE FOR IMPACT 23
SOLAR-PLUG 25
CONCLUSION 32
INTRODUCTION
Banks play a vital role in the evolution of societies and economies. By facilitating commerce,
creating liquid markets, brokering transactions and acting as intermediaries, banks
influence the flow of capital and significantly impact society’s purchases and investments. As
a result, from the emergence of Florentine moneylenders in the 1400s to the development
of the modern mortgage in the 1930s and the invention of mobile payments in the 2000s,
banks have helped shape societies and economies through the financial resources and tools
they provide.
Because of their crucial role, banks could find themselves at the center of one of the greatest
challenges today: the transition toward a world where financial gains and personal utility are
reconciled with social and environmental impact.
GLOBAL ISSUES AND THE NEED FOR CHANGE
The world is facing many pressing issues including climate change, global poverty, pollution,
water scarcity, energy crises, gender and racial inequality – the list is long. On the other
hand, the resources dedicated to address these issues appear slight and often fleeting in
comparison. Putting a cost on solutions to such issues is a difficult task, but we note that
achieving the United Nations’ 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, which would address
many issues on the long list, is estimated at a daunting cost of some $4.5 trillion per year.2
It is becoming increasingly clear that aid and public capital provided by governments, non-
governmental organizations, development banks and non-profits alone will not be sufficient
to meet this massive funding requirement. While certain members of government might be
so inclined, political constraints put real limits on the amount of capital that can be directed
to such efforts. A central assertion of this paper is that a new flow of mainstream private
capital can be enabled by innovative financial tools that empower consumers to redirect
their capital towards investments and purchases that not only generate personal utility and
financial gain, but also positive social and environmental impact – effectively shifting some
of the burden off of government and philanthropic institutions.
“Behind each great historical phenomenon there lies a financial secret.”
– NIALL FERGUSON THE ASCENT OF MONEY: A FINANCIAL HISTORY OF THE WORLD1
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 2
THE RISE OF THE CONSCIENTIOUS CONSUMER
Billions of people now have near real-time awareness of global events through the Internet
as events resonate and amplify through Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and other social media
platforms. This unprecedented exposure presents to people the causes and implications of
these global challenges, inspiring many to recognize their own role in solutions and spurring
meaningful change in individual behavior.
Indeed, recent studies and surveys suggest that consumers have an increasing desire to
take social and environmental factors into account when deciding where to shop, what to
buy, and which investments to make. However, consumer decisions are driven by many
layers of complex factors, so people might often say one thing but do another, and the
absence of financial tools designed to support conscientious decisions does not help to
close any gap between intention and action. Conversely, the availability of such tools could
help consumers achieve their articulated desires, and even actively encourage them to
incorporate social and environmental values in their purchasing and investment decisions.
NEED FOR THE RIGHT TOOLS
The development of the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in the late 1930s is considered by
many the key factor transforming America “from a nation of urban renters to suburban
homeowners”3. By providing an affordable financing product tailored to the needs of the
consumer, banks and the invention of the modern mortgage led to a steep increase in
homeownership. This and other historical examples demonstrate the importance of banks
and the investment tools they provide in driving systematic change in consumer behavior.
Let us assume then that, if presented with the appropriate tools, consumers would act to
align their financial decisions with social and environmental values. What kind of financial
tools or products would be needed in this case? A small investor might wish to fund a very
specific enterprise that would have a particularly favorable social impact. This would require
a financial tool that allows retail investors to make small investments in private enterprises
with specific social/environmental goals. A family might want to buy an energy efficient
home, say with solar panels and geothermal, in order to reduce their dependency on
coal-generated electricity. This would require a mortgage product that makes these costly
“green” upgrades financially more attractive to the family. There are many other instances
where consumers might consider incorporating social and environmental values when
making a financial decision. The availability of appropriate financial products – or lack
thereof – might be a key factor determining what kind of decision is made.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 3
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FINANCIAL SERVICES
The Financial Services (FS) industry has the opportunity and ability to catalyze this desired
change in consumer behavior while simultaneously building economic value for its
stakeholders – both in the short and long term. By offering retail banking and investment
products tailored to support purchases and investments that have positive social and
environmental impact, FS companies could cater to the demands of conscientious
consumers and create new platforms for direct revenue generation.
In regards to short term economics, it is a mistake to think that such products would require
an altruistic allowance for smaller profit margins. Indeed, we see quite the opposite as
improved consumer segmentation and targeted products typically result in a competitive
advantage. Furthermore, appealing to consumers’ social and environmental values could
meaningfully differentiate and strengthen a company’s brand, which can create economic
value through increased customer acquisition, trust and loyalty – this will be especially
important as competition increases from Silicon Valley financial technology companies.
Improved brand perception can help FS companies particularly when engaging customer
segments such as the millennial generation, many of whom have articulated a desire to
make the world a better place through their financial choices.
However, we must be careful to complement optimism with a healthy amount of caution
in these matters as there will be significant challenges along the way, as with any effort
involving innovation and new markets. These challenges and pitfalls are discussed
throughout this report and are not to be underestimated; though, neither should the
potential rewards on the other side.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
In this report, we present five ideas for products that financial institutions could offer to
cater to this growing demographic of conscientious consumers. Three of these would
necessitate significant market transformation within their relevant industries, requiring
meaningful and continuous collaboration among the financial services industry, the private
sector (e.g., technology, manufacturing, utilities) and the public sector. If successfully
implemented, these ideas have the promise to create new investment and lending products
tailored towards social and environmental impact.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 4
MARKET TRANSFORMATION IDEAS
IMPACTCROWDFUNDING
GREENMORTGAGES
SOLAR-PLUG
Establish specializedcrowdfunding platforms that allow mainstream investors to invest in enterprises with social/ environmental impact goals.
Consider the home’s green features when pricing a mortgage, and securitize“green mortgages” to create a new form of green bond.
Develop a specialized lending product for electric vehicle and solar energy bundles, and securitize these loans to create a new form of green bond.
The other two ideas represent “low hanging fruit” in the sense that they demonstrate how
existing capabilities and products within financial services could be leveraged and upgraded
to achieve substantial impact. Given the starting point for these ideas is existing capabilities,
mostly small technical upgrades would be needed for implementation. As a result, these
ideas could begin delivering meaningful impact relatively quickly.
BUILDING ON EXISTING CAPABILITIES
POINT IMPACT:A NEW WAY TO USECREDIT CARD POINTS
CHANGE FOR CHANGE:POOL YOUR CHANGEFOR IMPACT
Use credit card points to crowdfund social and environmental impact loans; get points back when the loan is repaid.
O�er option to “round up” customers’ credit and debit card transactions to the nearest dollar, and pool this virtual “change” to crowdfund an impact project.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 5
Although we discuss these five ideas mostly from a US perspective – especially when
presenting potential challenges – we believe that they can indeed be applied in other
regions of the world, with of course varying benefits and challenges based on the
particular location.
LOOKING AHEAD: A WIN-WIN-WIN OPPORTUNITY
With the ideas presented in this report, we aim to demonstrate that engaging and
empowering consumers with products that generate positive social and environment impact
represents a triple-win opportunity: consumers who want to make conscientious purchasing
and investment decisions get the financial tools they need; banks evolve new profit streams
while strengthening loyalties and broadening their customer base; and the world gets much
needed support in the collective effort towards a more sustainable future.
Of course, tackling global issues will require more than just the five ideas discussed in
this report, and financial institutions have been leading a range of efforts to contribute to
solutions. Our goal here is to offer a complementary perspective that encourages further
innovative thinking and constructive debate on the topic, and help the FS industry fulfil its
full potential to drive positive social and environmental change.
We recognize that operationalizing such ideas and driving meaningful change may require
institutions to overcome organizational and operational challenges, legal and regulatory
requirements, and competing business priorities – such obstacles are unavoidable, but
not insurmountable. There is growing literature around how institutions can align business
strategy with social and environmental innovation to achieve growth. For example, the 2016
“Social Innovation: A Guide to Achieving Corporate and Societal Value” report published
by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Oliver Wyman presents a practical
framework to help institutions incorporate social innovation in their business strategy. Our
desire and commitment is to continue this kind of innovative thinking, work with the FS
industry and other stakeholders to overcome any challenges, and ultimately capture what
we see as a triple-win opportunity: for consumers, for banks, and for the planet.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 6
IMPACT CROWDFUNDING
INTRODUCTION: ADDING IMPACT TO CROWDFUNDING
Rewards-based crowdfunding is an Internet-based, alternative form of financing where
a large number of supporters can fund projects on platforms such as Kickstarter and
Indiegogo. In return for their monetary contribution, supporters typically receive non-
monetary rewards such as t-shirts or invitations to launch events.
Crowdfunding has turned raising money for a purpose into a social activity in which
millions of Internet users can seamlessly participate. Enabled by social media and inspired
by collective responses that can occasionally “go viral”, crowdfunding’s success has
demonstrated people’s desire to support projects aligned with their interests and values.
The empowering features of crowdfunding have made it a popular way to finance a wide
range of projects from film to technology. As a result, total funds raised worldwide through
crowdfunding reached $16 billion in 2014, a 167% increase from 2013.4
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 7
Exhibit 1: Rewards-based crowdfunding
Large group of supporters pledge funds.Pledged funds are pooled towards stated project goal on a crowdfunding platform.
Projects across a wide range of areas such as film, technology and music are funded.
Non-monetary rewards
Source: Oliver Wyman
Another form of crowdfunding is “securities-based crowdfunding” which allows companies
to raise equity or debt capital from a large number of investors. This form of crowdfunding
involves the offer and sale of an investment security, which aims to produce financial returns
for investors. Securities-based crowdfunding platforms exist today, but have had limited
reach since only accredited investors5 – the wealthiest and most sophisticated – have
been allowed to participate. However, the Jumpstart Our Business Startups ( JOBS) Act is
attempting to change this by creating a regulatory framework that allows non-accredited
investors to participate in this form of crowdfunding. By allowing mainstream participation,
the JOBS Act aims to unlock a new source of capital for small and early stage companies.
One category of companies which can particularly benefit from this new source of capital is
“impact enterprises” – companies conceived with the specific intent to generate
social/environmental returns in addition to financial returns. A potential new application
of securities-based crowdfunding – referred to as “impact crowdfunding” here – could allow
impact enterprises to raise capital from a large number of small investors who not only seek
financial returns, but also social/environmental returns. This new source of capital could
help small and early-stage impact enterprises address the funding gap they currently face.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 8
Exhibit 2: Impact crowdfunding
Large group of small retail investors pledge funds.With the proper crowdfunding platform, regulatory framework and financial expertise, funds are pooled in an investment vehicle.
Impact enterprises that generate financial returns in addition to social and environmental returns are funded.
Monetary rewards
+
Source: Oliver Wyman
The JOBS Act, and consequently impact crowdfunding, do bring considerable risks. Allowing
inexperienced investors to invest in start-ups could lead to large losses, fraud and investor
scams if proper measures are not taken. Furthermore, although investors seem to have a
growing desire for impact investments6, it is unclear whether this desire will translate into
action when presented with a new investment tool such as impact crowdfunding.
Exhibit 3: Two sides of the coin – Impact crowdfunding
POTENTIALBENEFITS
RISKS ANDCHALLENGES
• Enable impact enterprises to raise capital from a broad set of investors, using a new channel
• Allow the small, conscientious investor to participate inimpact investing
• Leverage social media and the internet to spread the word on impact investments
• Promote collaboration betweenthe FS industry and financial technology companies
• Investors can experience high loss rates due to the inherently risky nature of financing start-ups
• May increase fraud and investor scams due to presumed naiveté of many inexperienced investors
• Nascent and untested nature of the new financing method might deter participation
• Lack of data and track record regarding investments mayreduce transparency
Source: Oliver Wyman
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 9
The financial services industry may have much to gain from tackling these risks and
challenges. By offering impact crowdfunding solutions, financial institutions can engage
a new and growing group of investors, thereby expanding their client base. Related
commissions would represent a new revenue stream. As a technology-enabled and
socially/environmentally minded investment tool, impact crowdfunding also can also
significantly enhance an institution’s brand and increase loyalty. As competition for
consumer attention increases with the rise of Silicon Valley financial technology companies,
engaging younger demographics through such innovative and meaningful efforts will
become increasingly important for financial institutions.
INVESTORS SAY THEY WANT TO HAVE IMPACT
Studies show that consumers increasingly think of social and environmental values in the
context of investment decisions. According to a 2013 survey, 60% of US consumers say a
company’s social and environmental commitments are an important consideration when
deciding where to invest.7 According to another survey, 67% of high and ultra-high net worth
young adults have indicated that “investment decisions are a way to express [their] social,
political and environmental values.”8
These and many other studies demonstrate the promising desire many people have to align
investment decisions with social and environmental impact. However, these studies usually
reflect what people say, and not necessarily what they do. With limited availability of such
investments, we still do not have concrete evidence regarding whether actions will follow
words. Therefore, we also need to look at other relevant trends and related products in order
to better gauge the potential of impact crowdfunding.
EXAMPLES OF AVAILABLE TOOLS
Although platforms specifically dedicated to impact crowdfunding do not exist today,
Internet users are already leveraging other available tools to finance impact enterprises.
A specific example is the LowLine, which is a Kickstarter campaign that aims to “transform
an abandoned New York City trolley terminal into a vibrant community green space using
new solar technology.” The LowLine team surpassed its funding goal of $100,000, and
raised ~$155,000 from over 3,000 supporters.9 These supporters effectively participated in
something similar to impact crowdfunding, but without the expectation of direct financial
returns. Instead, the reward for their contributions ranged from acknowledgments on the
LowLine website to t-shirts and other trinkets.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 10
A broader example is Kiva, which allows users to crowdfund microloans to underprivileged
entrepreneurs by contributing as little as $25. If the loan is repaid, Kiva users may get their
money back without interest. Again, there is no expectation of financial return. As of 2015,
1.4 million Kiva lenders have crowdfunded $785 million in Kiva loans.10 The $136 million lent
in 2014 alone represents an 18% compound annual growth rate since 2010.11
These are a few examples of how Internet users are leveraging available tools to finance
impact enterprises, without expecting direct financial returns. Indeed, these examples
merely represent a fraction of total capital raised every year for countless efforts. It is also
possible that these examples reflect a reallocation of existing charitable donations rather
than a net increase in socially/environmentally impactful financing. So, while these select
stories may not be sufficient to prove the more general rule, they are certainly encouraging
signs showing that crowdfunding could actually be a tool that enables and accelerates the
incorporation of mainstream capital in impact investing.
ADDRESSING THE FUNDING GAP FOR SMALL AND EARLY-STAGE IMPACT ENTERPRISES
The primary participants in impact investing are currently institutional investors,
development banks, international organizations, foundations and ultra-high net worth
individuals who often seek large and relatively safe investments in mature impact
enterprises. According to J.P. Morgan, 91% of capital invested in impact enterprises in 2014
was invested in post-venture stage companies (growth, mature or publicly traded) whereas
only 9% was invested in early-stage enterprises (start-up or venture stage). The average
investment size during the same period was $72 million.12
On the other hand, according to a Duke University survey, 50% of impact enterprises in
the US were targeting to raise less than $2 million in capital over three years (2014-2016).13
Similarly, a Social Enterprise UK survey showed that social enterprises seeking financing in
the UK most commonly aimed for between £10,000 and £50,000 in 2015.14 There is a clear
mismatch between the supply and demand for impact investments. Impact crowdfunding
could potentially reconcile this mismatch.
The amounts sought by individual impact enterprises are comparable to amounts provided
for projects through rewards-based crowdfunding platforms. For example, across the
~96,000 projects funded on Kickstarter since 2009, the average amount raised was around
$22,000. A few thousand projects received more than $100,000, just over 100 received more
than $1 million, and a few dozen received $3 million or more.15 These figures are comparable
to those reported in the Duke University and the Social Enterprise UK surveys in terms of
how much investment individual impact enterprises seek. Internet users have shown that
they are willing to meet the funding demands of projects this size, making crowdfunding a
good fit for impact enterprises.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 11
“One can think of a charitable donation as an investment, just as debt and equity are investments. The difference is that the return on the donation is not financial. The donor does not expect to get its money back; it expects its money to generate a social benefit.”
– “A NEW APPROACH TO FUNDING SOCIAL ENTERPRISE”
RETHINKING RISK-ADJUSTED RETURNS
Risk-adjusted returns offered by small and early-stage impact
enterprises are often not sufficient to attract traditional investors
seeking risk-adjusted financial returns only. Therefore, impact
crowdfunding will likely attract investors who are not only seeking
financial returns, but are also weighing social and environmental
benefits, and thereby considering risk-adjusted total returns when
making investment decisions.
The notion that social and environmental benefits can be
considered a “return on investment” is discussed in a Harvard
Business Review article in the context of charitable donations. In
“A New Approach to Funding Social Enterprises” the authors argue
that one “can think of a charitable donation as an investment, just
as debt and equity are investments. The difference is that the return
on the donation is not financial. The donor does not expect to get
its money back; it expects its money to generate a social benefit.”16
The implications of this logic can be observed in the context of
impact investments. For example, according to Goldman Sachs
research and a US Trust survey, 72% of young adults indicated
they would be “willing to accept a higher risk in companies that
have a positive impact on society/environment.”17 This is a sign
that these individuals may be implicitly accounting for social and
environmental returns, in addition to financial returns, when
considering the risk-adjusted total return on their investment.
The story so far is encouraging: impact enterprises seem to be in
need of capital, and retail investors seem to be willing to supply
the necessary capital if given the appropriate investment tools.
Impact crowdfunding could be the tool that enables this flow
of capital. However, a legal framework is needed to allow and
regulate mainstream investor participation in securities-based
crowdfunding. This is where the Jumpstart Our Business Startups
Act (“JOBS Act” or “the rule”) comes into play.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 12
SECURITIES-BASED CROWDFUNDING UNDER THE JOBS ACT
The JOBS Act, which was approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in
2015 and is expected to come into effect in mid-2016, allows both accredited and non-
accredited investors to participate in securities-based crowdfunding. The excitement
surrounding the JOBS Act is largely driven by this inclusive nature of the rule, which could
allow securities-based crowdfunding to become a mainstream tool. However, this source of
excitement is also the source of controversy surrounding the JOBS Act.
Allowing small and inexperienced (non-accredited) investors to invest in start-ups can
create substantial risk. Investors might experience large losses even in the absence of any
ill-intention, simply due to the high fail rate of start-ups. Since the JOBS Act eases certain
securities regulations to allow small businesses to raise capital more easily, it could also
increase the risk of fraud or investor scams. Investors may especially be susceptible to
fraud and scams if they are led to believe they are doing a good deed with positive social/
environmental outcomes. However, while easing certain regulations, the JOBS Act does
enforce a number of requirements to provide investor protection.
The rule requires all securities-based crowdfunding transactions to occur through an
SEC-registered intermediary (“intermediary”) such as a broker-dealer. Under the rule,
an intermediary could choose to build its own crowdfunding platform. Alternatively, a
crowdfunding platform could choose to register with the SEC. However, a more practical
solution could be a partnership between an intermediary and a crowdfunding platform
where the relative strengths of the two parties are leveraged across areas such as user
engagement, risk management, technology and finance. The SEC also expects that “some
brokers might acquire or form partnerships with funding portals to obtain access to a new
and diverse investor base.”18
Intermediaries involved in securities-based crowdfunding are required to carry out a number
of tasks to protect investors: providing educational materials for investors, establishing
communication channels to facilitate discussion around investment offerings, taking
measures to reduce fraud risk and making company disclosures available to investors, to
name a few. These requirements combined with limits on how much capital a company
can raise, and income-based limits on how much an individual can invest within a year are
intended to limit potential downside for investors.
The effectiveness of these measures in providing investor protection while facilitating a
favorable funding process remains to be seen. However, with a regulatory framework in
place, securities-based crowdfunding now has a legal steppingstone towards becoming a
mainstream tool. Helping it grow is up to the financial services industry.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 13
TAKING THE NEXT STEP
Impact crowdfunding could play a vital role in directing
mainstream capital towards funding small and early-stage impact
enterprises. In fact, the SEC acknowledges this as one of the core
purposes of the JOBS Act: “We understand that Title III [of the rule]
was designed to help alleviate the funding gap and accompanying
regulatory concerns faced by startups and small businesses in
connection with raising capital in relatively low dollar amounts.”19
With investor demand for impact crowdfunding apparently
growing, and the necessary regulatory framework now in place,
financial institutions can take the next step towards establishing
impact crowdfunding platforms and seize the associated
business opportunity. Some institutions are already moving in
this direction. For example, in Europe, ING Belgium formed a
partnership with two crowdfunding platforms to allow small/
medium enterprises (SMEs) to raise equity through crowdfunding.
Although this partnership targets SMEs in general and not only
impact enterprises, it is a promising sign which shows impact
crowdfunding can become a reality if there is commitment from
financial services.
“We understand that Title III was designed to help alleviate the funding gap and accompanying regulatory concerns faced by startups and small businesses in connection with raising capital in relatively low dollar amounts.”
– SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 14
POINT IMPACT: A NEW WAY TO USE CREDIT CARD POINTS
DORMANT POINTS
Credit card holders, when using their cards, often earn “points” that can be exchanged for
additional goods or services. However, it can take a significant amount of time to accumulate
sufficient points for any desired redemption option. While working toward a target balance,
card holders have “dormant points” – effectively a store of value that is not being used.
In many cases these can be several hundred or thousand points that sit in an account for
months or even years as the card holder works his/her way towards, for example, a 50,000
point airline ticket.
PUTTING UNUSED CAPACITY TO WORK
Taken in aggregate, these dormant points could be used to crowdfund a loan to an
enterprise with social or environmental goals. This “Point Impact” approach could be
structured similarly to a campaign on Kickstarter or Indiegogo, but where the card holders
would use their points to fund a project – and
they would get their points back once the loan
is repaid. This would allow card holders to use
their dormant points to have a positive impact
on society or the environment while they wait
to buy that airline ticket.
ENHANCING THE EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE
Card issuers could leverage their existing
infrastructure to operationalize this idea. The
main enhancement required would be to build
the crowdfunding capability and the “point
lending” infrastructure so that card holders are
able to lend their points towards crowdfunding
a loan.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 15
The card issuer could partner with an organization such as Kiva to identify the enterprises
that will be included in the crowdfunding campaigns. The partner organization could also
be responsible for the origination and servicing of the loan and the collection of payments.
However, the exact mechanics behind the end-to-end process (e.g., accounting) will depend
on the institutions involved and may take a number of forms.
THE IMPACT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
Using American Express’s program as an example, the card issuer was carrying a
“Membership Rewards liability” of some $7 billion based on outstanding points as of
December 2014.20 A mere 0.05% participation rate in the Point Impact program would
represent ~$4 million, enough to fund some 9,000 micro loans through Kiva; a 10%
participation level would correspond to ~$700 million, enough to build ~5,000 affordable
housing units.
While such a program may come with some cost, for example in terms of new systems and
potential loss of float income, the advantages gained by a firm evidencing such innovation,
along with the subsequent upsides in the form of branding and customer loyalty, would
seem to hold potential to dominate any marginal costs involved.
Exhibit 4: How point impact works
Cardholders lend points, which are pooled.1
The card issuer writes a check to the partner organization based on pooled points.
2Partner organizationmakes a loan to the impact enterprise involved in the campaign.
3$Points
Cardholders get backthe points they hadoriginally lent.6
The card issuer purchases points with the check received from the partner organization.
5Partner organization receives loan payments and writes a check to the card issuer.
4$Points
Source: Oliver Wyman
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 16
GREEN MORTGAGES
INTRODUCTION: ADDING COLOR TO YOUR HOME
A “green home” is one that is designed and built to minimize the structure’s impact on the
environment by efficiently using energy, water and other resources, protecting occupant
health, and reducing waste, pollution and environmental degradation.21 As a result of being
efficient, employing clean technologies and using high-quality materials, green homes can
have greater value and durability, reduce utility bills, and generate environmental benefits.
These qualities have fueled demand for green homes in recent years. In
2005, green homes’ share of single family housing starts was only 2%,
but by 2013 it was up to 23%. For 2016, green homes are estimated
to account for ~30% of new single family homes, representing
a ~$90 billion market.22 Clearly the market has changed
and continues to evolve; new homes are increasingly
expected to be green in order to engender demand
in the market place.
While the appeals of a green home
to a prospective homeowner are
numerous and fairly obvious, less
broadly appreciated is that
mortgages on such properties
tend to carry less default and
prepayment risk.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 17
Some have speculated that this is due to smaller utility bills,
providing the homeowner greater liquidity within a fixed income.
But whatever the underlying reasons, data appear to show
that even after controlling for the usual underwriting variables,
“green mortgages” are less risky.
Despite the rapid growth of this market segment, and an
increasingly clear understanding of the data trends and risk
differentiation, customized mortgage options for green homes
have lagged behind. Government involvement has largely been
limited to the 1990s era Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and
Veterans Administration (VA) Energy Efficient Mortgage (EEM)
programs that mainly allow low and moderate-income homebuyers
to qualify for larger mortgages to finance energy efficiency
improvements. Unfortunately, the FHA and VA programs have
seen limited take-up at this lower, less expensive end of the green
homes market. The limited success of these older programs may
unfortunately have had an inhibiting effect on financial innovation
that could better and more comprehensively address the needs of
today’s green home market.
We highlight in this section the opportunity surrounding mortgage
products that are designed and priced specifically for green homes.
By offering mortgages differentiated for green homes, the prospect
is that banks could capture a larger share of a growing new market,
and do so at an attractive level of risk and return, without giving up
profits. This too could come with coincident branding advantages.
Of course, attempting to introduce a new “green mortgage”
product comes with challenges. It is hard to underestimate the
importance of the collaboration that would be needed between
banks and government sponsored entities, particularly
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The product would require significant
procedural changes, such as the development of new underwriting
guidelines, additional collection and analysis of data on home
efficiency, use of renewable energy, etc. The potential cost and
effort associated with implementing these changes will likely be the
first roadblock that needs to be overcome. It will be critical to learn
from past experiences that have had limited success, to create a
truly innovative mortgage product that fully caters to today’s green
home buyer.
SHARE OF GREEN HOMES
2005
2%
2013
23%
2016estimation
~30%
Source: McGraw Hill Construction
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 18
Exhibit 5: Two sides of the coin – Green mortgages
POTENTIALBENEFITS
RISKS ANDCHALLENGES
• Enable customers to lower energy use, save money and reduce environmental impact by adopting green homes
• Establish a new, high-quality mortgage product that may create a new source of revenue
• Pave the way towards a new type of “green bond” based on pooled“green mortgages”
• Limited success of past e�orts highlight challenges that lie ahead
• Necessary systematic procedural changes can be costly and require significant e�ort
• Developing a secondary market for “green mortgages” will require support from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Source: Oliver Wyman
Challenges exist, but this is common to most endeavors involving the introduction of a
new product, service or process that would require systematic change. Underneath these
procedural and operational challenges, we see a fundamental opportunity. As the green
home market continues to grow – primarily driven by increased customer demand – we
believe green homes will merit their own dedicated mortgages. The creation of such a
mortgage product can benefit home buyers, the financial services industry and the planet.
SHADES OF GREEN
A green home typically will include features such as high-performance windows that
minimize heat loss, energy-efficient HVAC systems, effective insulation throughout the
house and efficient lighting and appliances. Taking it further, a green home may employ
renewable energy systems such as solar (passive or active), wind and/or micro-hydro, smart
technologies such as “learning thermostats”, water catchment systems and others. New
architecture may highlight use of recycled materials and adhere to high construction and
material requirements that minimize occupant exposure to airborne contaminants.
Since there is a wide range of construction options, certification programs such as LEED
and ENERGY STAR, and efficiency rating systems such the Home Efficiency Rating System
(“HERS”) have emerged to assess “greenness”. These are very similar to the energy efficiency
ratings seen on appliances such as dishwashers and refrigerators, except applied to entire
homes. These ratings today are primarily a selling point for new homebuyers. However,
there is more to these ratings and green features than meets the eye.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 19
MORE GREEN, LESS RISK
While green construction features often cost more money up front, improved efficiency
reduces utility bills and decreases exposure to energy price fluctuations over the life of the
structure. Such construction can also result in lower maintenance and repair costs, and
tend to carry health benefits for those living in green homes. The consequent financial
benefits last over time – by lowering monthly costs, homeowners can create an extra cushion
of savings to possibly cover mortgage payments when times are rough. It has also been
suggested that since a green home is an investment that comes with higher initial costs that
are covered by future savings, green homebuyers tend to be more calculating, forward-
looking and financially savvy. Green features may also improve resale value, which obviously
would represent more valuable loan collateral.
An increasing number of academics and industry participants have been exploring whether
the greenness of a home can impact mortgage performance. A 2013 University of North
Carolina (UNC) study23 shows that there is indeed a relationship between the “greenness” of
a home and mortgage performance, unexplained by other variables. The UNC study found
that ENERGY STAR certified homes have 32% lower default and 25% lower prepayment risk
compared to similar non-ENERGY STAR certified homes, after accounting for key factors
such as borrower credit score, neighborhood income, neighborhood unemployment rate,
size of the house, age of the house, loan-to-value ratio, debt-to-income ratio and other key
loan and household characteristics. The study also found a direct relationship between the
level of a home’s efficiency and mortgage risks. For each point decrease in the HERS score
(indicating higher efficiency) default risk is decreased by 4% and prepayment risk by 2%.
These findings show that a home’s greenness really represents additional factors that could
be used to better assess and price mortgage risk. However, despite much discussion, and for
a variety of reasons, the current mainstream mortgage market does not explicitly account for
green features of homes.
THE STATE OF THE GREEN MORTGAGE MARKET
As indicated in the introduction, the current market for green mortgages is almost
exclusively limited to Energy Efficient Mortgages (EEM), essentially experimental offerings
by the FHA and VA. These EEM programs allow borrowers to qualify for a larger mortgage
by including the cost of energy efficiency features in the loan. For example, if a borrower
originally qualified for a 150,000 loan under a conventional mortgage program, but needs an
extra $5,000 to add efficiency features to the home, he/she can qualify for a $155,000 loan
under the EEM program, thereby allowing borrowers to “stretch” their debt-to-income ratio.
EEMs were launched in the 1990s to encourage incremental efficiency upgrades to homes,
and they come with caps and limits on the potential increase in the loan size (e.g., $6,000 for
VA EEM24).
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 20
Today, EEMs remain an obscure segment of the mortgage market. Most lenders do not offer
them as there is limited demand and benefit: the customer base qualifying for the FHA and
VA programs is (by relative measures) small and the additional paper work increases costs.
Further, selling EEMs in the secondary market is problematic as neither Fannie Mae nor
Freddie Mac has programs for purchasing EEMs. From the borrowers’ perspective, while
the EEM might facilitate a slightly larger mortgage, it does not provide the kind of financial
advantage that would be a due consequent of lower risk.
A NEW KIND OF ASSET NEEDS A NEW KIND OF MORTGAGE
Mortgages for green homes need to be more than just a larger loan. To develop the right
product, lenders must build a fundamental understanding of this emerging segment, the
drivers of financial performance and the characteristics of the customers seeking these
investments. Based on this understanding, lenders could develop new underwriting
guidelines and incorporate new pricing variables that would systematically account for
green features of a house such as its energy and water efficiency, renewable energy use,
sustainable material use and water catchment capabilities.
With this deeper understanding, lenders would be positioned to offer a more sophisticated,
affordable and streamlined product tailored to today’s green home market. Strategically, the
banks leading the charge could establish brand presence in this expanding new segment
of the housing market, and capture a larger share of a market estimated at ~$90 billion
originating in 2016 alone. By offering green mortgages, banks can also open up a whole new
investment opportunity: Green Mortgage Backed Securities.
GREEN BONDS ON THE RISE
According to the World Bank, “green bonds” are fixed income instruments that raise funds
for projects with environmental benefits.25 Green bonds are used to fund a wide range of
environmental projects and have been gaining popularity over the past few years. Issuance
of green bonds increased from only $1 billion in 201226 to $36 billion in 201427 – still a small
fraction of total bond issuances, but an impressive increase from 2012. Demand for green
bonds is expected to continue to increase significantly, especially as the world tackles
pressing environmental issues such as climate change.
The increased presence of major investment banks is an indicator of the significant potential
in this niche market. For example, in June 2015, Morgan Stanley issued its first green bond
to provide $500 million in funding for various renewable energy projects such as a 150 MW
wind farm under construction in Texas.28
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 21
In November 2015, Barclays reached its target of investing more than £1 billion in green
bonds and committed to investing a further £1 billion, representing the largest green
bond investment commitment by any institution in the world.29 An increasing number of
institutional investors such as insurance companies are also committing to green bonds. For
example, in 2013, Zurich Insurance committed to invest $1 billion in green bonds.30 These
trends indicate that satisfying the demand for these investments will require an increasing
supply of attractive green bonds. This is where green homes can help.
FROM GREEN HOME TO GREEN BOND
Securitizing green mortgages under a Green Mortgage Backed Security (GMBS) would
create an investment vehicle perfectly consistent with the definition of a green bond – that
is, a fixed income instrument with environmental benefits. Since it would be based on an
underlying asset class that investors are already very familiar with (i.e., mortgages) GMBS
could be highly attractive to investors seeking green bonds, but want to avoid more exotic
investments such as large scale renewable energy projects.
In addition to being a familiar asset class, GBMS would also offer attractive risk adjusted
returns, especially as green mortgages are shown to carry measurably lower default and
prepayment risk compared to traditional mortgages. These features could make GMBS
a highly attractive green bond investment for those seeking long duration, low risk and
relatively attractive yield.
NEED FOR FANNIE AND FREDDIE TO TAKE THE LEAD
Liquidity in the US mortgage market fundamentally depends on the secondary market for
agency mortgage backed securities facilitated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A lender
selling its loans to these GSEs frontloads the profit stream and frees up space on its balance
sheet, allowing it to originate yet more loans. It’s clear that a key factor that will determine a
lender’s willingness to offer green mortgages will be their ability to sell these mortgages in
the secondary market. To help establish the secondary market for green mortgages, Fannie
and Freddie would need to develop guidelines for “conforming green mortgages” and
establish a program to routinely purchase these mortgages.
With its Green Rewards program that was launched in 2015, Fannie Mae has started down
this path, rewarding green-certified multifamily buildings with a 10 bps reduction in rate,
among other benefits. This encouraging program is a significant step and demonstrates
Fannie Mae’s acknowledgement of the positive impact of green features on mortgage
performance. In this spirit, a program for single family homes would not only encourage
banks to originate more green mortgages, but it would allow the GSEs to better differentiate
and so manage the credit risk associated with the mortgages they buy.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 22
CHANGE FOR CHANGE: POOL YOUR CHANGE FOR IMPACT
A NEW WAY TO SAVE FOR A CAUSE
Change for Change would allow participants to “round up” their
debit or credit card transactions to the nearest dollar and put their
virtual “change” in an account (“piggy bank”) reserved for raising
funds towards a social or environmental cause.
THE MORE THE MERRIER
Change for Change would be a social and collaborative
crowdfunding effort. For example, if a participant wants to raise
$500 for a Kiva loan or a donation for breast cancer research, he/
she could start a campaign and invite friends and family to join.
The more people join, the more quickly the campaign succeeds
and the smaller amount of money each person would need
to contribute.
Although the person launching a campaign would need to have
an account with a bank offering Change for Change, people with
accounts at other banks could also be invited to participate.
Herein lies a challenge as this kind of collective response will
require coordination across banks to facilitate the transfer of
“change” from many transactions into a common campaign
piggy bank.
TECHNOLOGY IS A KEY FACTOR
Change for Change will require technological capabilities in order
to pull transaction-level data, as well as solid security measures to
protect user privacy. Luckily, there is precedent for this. Personal
financial management apps such as “Mint” have already paved
the way for accessing transaction data with the permission of
the user.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 23
Other precedents also have paved the way. For example, Bank of America’s Keep the Change
program allows participants to round up transactions to the nearest dollar and transfer the
change to a personal savings account. Change for Change would add a social/environmental
twist to this program and make it a collaborative effort.
BENEFITS FOR BANKS
While empowering their customers and encouraging them to collectively save for the causes
they care about, banks offering Change for Change would be building their brand while
also increasing their deposits base. A quick calculation assuming three transactions per day
and $0.5 per transaction, the program could potentially generate ~$50 million in additional
deposits annually per 100,000 users captured.
Exhibit 6: How change for change works
Assemble a group of friends/family with a shared savings mission.
FIND FRIENDS ANDA CAUSE1 2 3
Keep track of how much you are contributing to the piggy bank by seeing your recent transactions rounded up.
ROUND UP FORSAVINGS
Watch savings accumulate for 6–24 months and once goal is met, cash is deployed towards the cause.
POOL YOURCHANGE
CHANGE FOR CHANGE CHANGE FOR CHANGECHANGE FOR CHANGE
We’re looking for: Sarah, you’re saving for:
$4.82
$3.26
$10.54
$9.01
$22.91
$5.37
$0.18
$0.74
$0.46
$0.99
$0.09
$0.63
SUSTAINABILITY THE FORT GREENCOMMUNITY GARDEN
We’re saving for:
We have $1023 in our piggy bank.
THE FORT GREENCOMMUNITY GARDEN
0months
5.5months
12months
TODAY
YESTERDAY
TUESDAY
FOOD
COMMUNITY-LED
Propose our own project
Total savings this week:
The Fort Green Community GardenGuerilla gardening with a focus on community education about food.
Ideal piggy bank size6-12 months
x x
x
Location:
NEAR ME US
INTERNATIONAL
x x
x
$12.00
$423.00Total savings to date:
Ari Sarah Meegs Julie Tom
Source: Oliver Wyman
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 24
INTRODUCTION: RUNNING ON SUNSHINE
The concept of driving an Electric Vehicle (EV), using solar energy to charge it at home
and enjoying “free” transportation is enticing to many. The combined investment would
eliminate trips to the gas pump, generate cost savings and immunize one from fuel price
fluctuations while supporting the broader efforts to reduce dependency on fossil fuels,
strengthen national energy security and decrease carbon emissions. An EV-solar bundle
represents a natural endpoint for those environmentally-minded consumers inclined to
“think globally and act locally”.
While this high-tech bundle has historically been considered out-of-reach for the average
consumer, the substantial and continued reduction in the cost of EVs and solar is starting
to make it an attractive and accessible option. In their 2014 report31 entitled “Will solar,
batteries and electric cars re-shape the electricity system?”, UBS Global Research
concluded that the EV-solar bundle is already an economically viable investment, with
SOLAR-PLUG
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 25
returns expected to rise and payback times to shorten dramatically given further expected
cost reductions. The prospects for this new, cost-effective and environmentally-friendly
consumer opportunity are also reverberating through mainstream media with major
outlets broadcasting spirited assertions as “the solar-EV combo may just be too good for
suburbanites to pass up.”32
However, here again challenges exist. Facilitating the mainstream adoption of EV-solar
bundles will require addressing overall process inefficiencies and administrative obstacles
associated with the purchase of these technologies, and creating a streamlined end-to-end
experience to help consumers switch to EV-solar. EV manufacturers, solar manufacturers,
financial institutions and utilities will need to collaborate to achieve these goals. The
synergies between EVs and solar can create economic value for everyone involved in this
collaboration: manufacturers can sell more EVs and solar panels; banks can finance more
EV-solar bundles; utility companies can earn credits towards renewable energy standards
and reduce the need for new and costly power generation plants; and customers can make
the switch to clean energy and save money. Indeed, government agencies also have a stake
to address regulation-related inefficiencies.
Exhibit 7: Two sides of the coin – Solar-plug
POTENTIALBENEFITS
RISKS ANDCHALLENGES
• Enable customers to save on gas and home utility bills by switching to EV-solar
• Support e�orts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and strengthen energy security
• Establish a new source of revenue through a specialized lending product
• Pave the way towards a new type of “green bond” based on pooled EV-solar loans
• High-cost of EV-solar relative to fossil-fuel based alternatives might continue to inhibit uptake
• Lack of established and ubiquitous infrastructure for EVs continues to be key deterrent
• Potential reduction or discontinuation of government incentives may slow down transition
• Certain interest groups might work against the mainstream adoption of EV-solar
Source: Oliver Wyman
Despite these challenges, momentum is building. Progress is being made through
meaningful government efforts and collaboration across manufacturers and utilities to
promote the adoption of EV-solar. What is not seen yet are customized financing options
for EV-solar bundles that would take into account the financial benefits of the bundled
investment. Here is yet another triple-win opportunity for banks.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 26
EVs AND SOLAR ENERGY: A COSTLY PAST, BUT AN AFFORDABLE FUTURE
EVs are powered by lithium-ion batteries, and the high cost of producing these batteries is
seen as one of the factors slowing EVs’ mainstream adoption. However, advances in battery
production are making EVs increasingly affordable. The average cost of producing a lithium-
ion battery was $1,000 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2007.33 By 2014, it was down to the
$300-$400 range.34 In 2015, General Motors announced that the batteries used in the 2016
Chevrolet Bolt costs only $145 per kWh.35 This represents tremendous progress, as these
costs are cheaper even than earlier estimates for 2020-2025. $145 per kWh is also below
the crucial $150 mark, which is widely considered to be the point at which EVs become cost
competitive with gasoline vehicles.36
A similar cost reduction has been observed for solar energy. In 2010, the cost of installing
a residential solar energy system was around $7 per watt.37 This meant that a typical
residential five kilowatt (kW) system cost roughly $35,000. Just five years later, this cost
decreased by almost 50%.38 By 2025, the cost per watt is expected to be closer to $2.39
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the price of solar energy will continue to fall
and “by 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than electricity from the grid.”40
In just a few years, the cost argument against EVs and solar may well become obsolete. This
is not to say that there are no further technological challenges to overcome, especially with
EVs due to their infancy. For example, “range anxiety”, the fear of running out of electricity
before getting to a charging station, remains a concern among those who otherwise might
be disposed to switch to an EV. However, with major auto manufacturers such as Ford and
General Motors, not to forget the innovative start-up Tesla, making significant investments
in EV development, it is likely these types of concerns will diminish as EV production reaches
scale, and the supporting technologies mature.
CONSUMER MOTIVATION TO BUNDLE EV AND SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS
Electric vehicles and residential solar energy systems represent complementary
technologies that together amplify the environmental and financial benefits generated
from the investment. If an EV is purchased without solar, consumers (in most places) would
be switching effectively from petroleum to coal as the base energy source to fuel their
vehicles. This would reduce the environmental benefits of the EV as coal is known to be more
carbon-intensive than petrol. On the other hand, if solar is bought without an EV – say to
cover the home’s electricity use alone – any future purchase of an EV would require resizing
the solar energy system since the EV could add some 30% to an average household’s
electricity consumption.41
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 27
Purchasing an EV and EV-dedicated solar system (ignoring the
home’s electricity consumption) is also an option. However,
considering the energy needs of both the new car and the home
has advantages. In essence, by making a bundled purchase,
customers could choose a solar energy system that meets the
combined energy needs of the home and EV, thereby optimizing
against aggregate cost savings as well as environmental benefits.
Despite these potential benefits, however, administrative and
process-related obstacles associated with solar energy continue
to cast a shadow that may discourage customers from making
the switch.
THE ROCKY PATH TO SOLAR
The physical and legal processes required to “go solar” includes
permitting, installation, inspection, grid-interconnection and
testing. This is an arduous and often lengthy process that can take
up to six months.42 In fact, the US Department of Energy’s “Race to
7-day solar” competition was launched in 2015 to spur innovation
and to cut the permit-to-plug-in time to seven days for residential
solar energy systems.
Bringing in the financial dimension adds another layer of
complexity. For most homeowners, the tradeoffs over time between
lower energy costs and payments on a new loan can make or break
the decision to go solar. However, evaluating these tradeoffs is
challenging. Both gasoline and electricity costs fluctuate over
time and are difficult to predict. Even with solar energy, costs are
dependent on the local utility’s offered incentives and rate plans,
which in turn are dependent on state-level requirements. These
requirements may change through time. Thus, going solar requires
homeowners to make complex financial decisions in addition to
enduring lengthy physical and legal processes.
The implication here is that the viability of the EV-solar option is
fundamentally part of the larger challenge to encourage a switch
to renewables that will require close collaboration between
government and utilities, manufacturers and ultimately financial
institutions. Manufacturers and financial institutions should
already be motivated to collaborate on this effort as the benefits
of increased adoption of EV-solar are relatively clear for them:
increased sales and financing opportunities. However, the story is
different for utilities for which the downside may be more obvious
than the upside.
EV AND SOLAR OPTIONS
Electric vehicle only;No solar
Solar only;No electric vehicle
Solar for electric vehicle only
BEST OPTION:Solar for electric vehicle and home
Source: Oliver Wyman
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 28
THE UTILITY’S COMPLEX PREDICAMENT
Increased adoption of rooftop solar presents a difficult set of conflicting issues to the utility
industry. The potential reduction in utilities’ retail electricity sales and revenue due to
increased customer electricity generation is the obvious issue. However, the more nuanced
and complex problem is around how solar energy can impact the costs of utilities.
The sun doesn’t always shine; nighttime and cloudy days are a problem for solar panels. So
even if they can offset 100% of their electricity usage, households with solar energy systems
would generally still need to connect to the utility grid for provision of continuous power
during “dark” times. This is where the issue lies – the large scale integration of residential
solar energy systems into the electricity grid complicates the grid’s management and
increases the utility’s grid management costs. The flow of power in and out of the grid based
on time and weather makes maintaining stable voltage very difficult. This is fundamentally
different than the historical one-way operation of the grid, where centralized power
plants can be managed to provide just the right amount of power to meet demand. With
decentralized generation, utilities now have uncertainty on both the supply and demand
sides of the equation. As solar take-up grows further, these uncertainties will also grow,
requiring ever more sophisticated and flexible power generation and distribution.
RENEWABLE INCENTIVES
Today, 29 states43 in the US have Renewable Energy Standards (RES) which require utilities to
produce a specified portion of their electricity from renewable energy sources in the next few
years. For example, New York must produce 50% of its electricity from renewable resources
by 2030. A 2016 study by the US Department of Energy shows that state RES programs
have led to public health benefits equivalent to $7.4 billion, supported 200,000 jobs, saved
consumers $1.2 billion in lower electricity prices and led to many other benefits in 2013
alone.44 These findings will likely be a powerful incentive as states consider launching new or
extending and strengthening existing RES programs over the next decade.
Increased adoption of residential solar energy may help utilities meet these standards as
power generated through distributed residential solar contributes to their quota.45 This
could also reduce the need for new and costly centralized power plants, which can offset
the increased grid costs. In addition, utilities have recognized the opportunity to establish
new sources of revenue by offering solar energy systems and providing related installation
and maintenance services. For example, ConEdison of New York (ConEd) has partnered
with a manufacturer of solar panels to offer their customers the option to lease solar energy
systems owned by ConEd. Similarly, Georgia Power launched a residential solar energy
system sales and installation business. By adapting early to this imminent shift in electricity
generation, these utilities will likely maximize the upside of this transition while mitigating
the downside.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 29
Exhibit 8: States with Renewable Energy Standards (RES)
HI
AK
VT
NHWA
OR
CA
NV
MT
ID
AZ
CO
NM
TX
MN
IA
MO
IL
WIMI
OHPA
NY
NC
ME
CT
RI
MA
NJ
DE
MD
DC
WY
UTNE
AR
LAMS AL GA
FL
TN
KYWV
SD
ND
KS
OK
IN
SC
VA
States and territories with RenewablePortfolio Standards.
States and territories with no standardor target.
States and territories with a voluntary renewable energy standard or target.
Source: NCSL
CHARGING FORWARD WITH EV-SOLAR
Signs of the movement towards EV-solar can be seen across recent efforts of manufacturers
as well. Audi’s launch of its first plug-in hybrid electric vehicle in 2015 was accompanied by
the “Audi energy program”, which allows customers to purchase a residential solar energy
system with their new car. Tesla has launched a home battery solution, Powerwall, which
allows for the collection and storage of solar energy during the day so it can be used to
power the home or charge an EV at any time. eMotorWerks, a manufacturer of EV charging
stations, partnered with a manufacturer of solar energy systems to offer solar-powered EV
charging stations at a reduced bundled price.
Government authorities are also leading efforts to educate consumers in EV-solar bundles.
The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and California
Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) partnered with Clean Power Research to offer an online
“EV-solar planning tool” that automatically determines the optimal size of a residential solar
energy system based on inputs such as the make and model of the EV and current electricity
bill. The tool also calculates the expected cost savings and environmental benefits of
switching to EV-solar.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 30
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR BANKS
As government bodies, manufacturers and utilities continue efforts to facilitate and
promote the adoption of EV-solar bundles, banks have an opportunity to contribute to
and benefit from this transition. Currently no major bank is differentiated or established
as the leader in this market. Thus, those who take the lead in providing customized EV-
solar financing options may establish competitive advantage as the go-to financer of these
investments, enhancing their brand and capturing a larger share of the market.
Assuming EV share of new auto sales46 in the US reaches a level between 10% and 50% by
2025, we expect the cumulative interest revenue that banks can generate from financing
EV-solar bundles to be in the range of $9 billion to $26 billion over the next 10 years. By
offering a customized financing option that takes into account the financial benefits of
EV-solar bundles, banks can promote the adoption of these technologies while establishing
a new platform for revenue generation.
The financing options offered for EV-solar bundles may take various forms. One innovative
option could be financing the bundled purchase with a single loan that has a term
structure, interest rate and other features that are reflective of the combined cash flow
and risk characteristics of the bundle. A single loan to the consumer could simplify the
purchasing and financing process, which would contribute to efforts around facilitating the
switch to EV-solar.
Since EV-solar bundles are investments made with a particular environmental goal, loans
on EV-solar bundles could also be securitized to create another form of “green bond”,
similar to the Green Mortgage Backed Securities discussed in the “Green Mortgages”
section. By helping expand investments in green bonds, EV-solar loans can open yet
another avenue for banks to create value for their shareholders, customers, and the planet.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 31
CONCLUSION
Following the 2008 crisis, most of the FS industry’s energy and attention focused on damage
control and recovery, compliance with new regulatory requirements, and the overall
enhancement of risk management practices. After almost a decade of efforts to build a more
resilient financial system, banks are now slowly entering a new and stronger steady state
where management attention can finally be turned to other proactive efforts that can create
substantial value for customers and shareholders. The creation of new products that allow
consumers and investors to make sound financial decisions that generate positive
social/environmental impact could be one of these forward-looking efforts.
The financial services industry should not see these products as an altruistic endeavor that
would require the sacrifice of profits in order to save the planet. To the contrary, just as any
new product is designed to meet a certain type of new demand, socially and environmentally
focused financial products would cater to a growing segment of conscientious consumers
and investors, leading to new growth and branding opportunities – all while helping the
world transition to a more sustainable future.
Financial institutions that move swiftly and seize this triple-win opportunity will establish
themselves as an empowering ally in the effort towards a better future and will enjoy the
trust, loyalty and business opportunities that arise from this position for years to come.
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 32
SOURCES1. Ferguson, Niall. The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. New York: Penguin Press, 2008
2. http://www.cfr.org/global-governance/sustainable-development-goals/p37051
3. Green, S., & Wachter, S. The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context. University of Pennsylvania Institute for Urban Research. September 21, 2005
4. http://www.crowdsourcing.org/editorial/global-crowdfunding-market-to-reach-344b-in-2015-predicts-massolutions-2015cf-industry-report/45376
5. “Accredited” may refer to investors who earn an annual income that exceeds $200,000, have a net worth over $1 million or are financially sophisticated (e.g. executive officer of the securities being offered). A detailed definition of the term can be found in Rule 501 of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Regulation D
6. The term “impact investing” is used to refer to investments made in impact enterprises
7. Cone Communications. Cone Communications Social Impact Study: The Next Cause Evolution, 2013
8. US Trust Impact Forum. Millennials: The Rise of Generation Next. August 2015
9. https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/855802805/lowline-an-underground-park-on-nycs-lower-east-sid/description
10. http://www.kiva.org/about/stats (data as of November 30, 2015)
11. http://www.kiva.org/annualreport/2014
12. Saltuk, Y., & El Idrissi, A. Eyes on the Horizon: The Impact Investor Survey. J.P. Morgan. May 4, 2015
13. Clark, C., Allen, M. et al. Accelerating Impact Enterprises: How to Lock, Stock and Anchor Impact Enterprises for Maximum Impact. SFJ Institute and Duke University, 2013
14. Villeneuve-Smith, F., & Temple, N. State of Social Enterprise Survey 2015. Social Enterprise UK, 2015
15. https://www.kickstarter.com/help/stats
16. Bugg-Levine, A., Kogut, B., & Kulatilaka, N. A New Approach to Funding Social Enterprise. Harvard Business Review, 2012
17. Terry, Heath P., Schwartz, Debra et al. The Future of Finance Part 3: The Socialization of Finance. Goldman Sachs, 2015
18. JOBS Act,17 C.F.R. §§ 200, 227, 232, 239, 240 and 249 (2014 proposed rule)
19. Id
20. American Express 2015 10-K filing for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014
21. http://archive.epa.gov/greenbuilding/web/html/about.html
22. Green Multifamily and Single Family Homes: Growth in a recovering market. McGraw Hill Construction, 2014
23. Kaza, Nikhil, Quercia, Roberto G. and Tian, Chao Yue. Home Energy Efficiency and Mortgage Risks. UNC Center of Community Capital and Institute of Market Transformation. March 2013
24. http://benefits.va.gov/WARMS/docs/admin26/handbook/ChapterLendersHanbookChapter7.pdf
25. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/green-bonds-climate-finance
26. http://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/morgan-stanley-green-bond-issue
27. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/green-bonds-climate-finance
28. http://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/morgan-stanley-green-bond-issue
29. http://www.newsroom.barclays.com/r/3268/barclays_reaches__1_billion_green_bonds_target_and_commits
30. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-11-18/zurich-insurance-to-spend-up-to-1-billion-in-green-bonds
31. Hummel, Patrick et al. Will solar, batteries and electric cars re-shape the electricity system? UBS Global Research. August 20, 2014
32. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/12/24/how-solar-power-and-electric-cars-could-make-suburban-living-awesome-again/
33. Nykvist, B., & Nilsson, M. Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Nature Climate Change, 2015 (pre-publication version)
34. Id
35. General Motors 2015 Global Business Conference. October 2015
36. Nykvist, B., & Nilsson, M. Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Nature Climate Change, 2015 (pre-publication version)
37. On average across the 50 US states; including all equipment, engineering and soft costs such as permits and professional services, excluding subsidies. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/in-the-time-it-takes-to-read-this-story-another-solar-project-will-go-up
38. Id
39. Id
40. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/the-way-humans-get-electricity-is-about-to-change-forever
41. The average US household uses ~900 kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity per month (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3). An EV would consume ~300 kWh per month assuming 37 miles driven daily on average (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm) and three miles driven per kWh based on industry average
42. http://energy.gov/articles/race-7-day-solar-0
43. http://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx#ca
44. Wiser, R., G. Barbose et al. A Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of US Renewable Portfolio Standards. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2016
45. The types of renewable energy that count towards the mandate may differ by state, and some states may not count electricity produced by residential rooftop solar energy towards RES goals
46. 16.5 million automobiles were sold in the US in 2014 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/06/business/us-auto-sales-jump-for-2014.html). We assume 16.5 million automobiles will be sold in 2025
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman 33
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Ege GurdenizEngagement Manager in the Americas Finance & Risk and Public Policy Practice
Mark AmesPartner in the Americas Finance & Risk and Public Policy Practice
Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting that combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organization transformation.
For more information please contact the marketing department by email at [email protected] or by phone at one of the following locations:
AMERICAS
+1 212 541 8100
EMEA
+44 20 7333 8333
ASIA PACIFIC
+65 6510 9700
Copyright © 2016 Oliver Wyman
All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Oliver Wyman and Oliver Wyman accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Oliver Wyman. This report is not investment advice and should not be relied on for such advice or as a substitute for consultation with professional accountants, tax, legal or financial advisors. Oliver Wyman has made every effort to use reliable, up-to-date and comprehensive information and analysis, but all information is provided without warranty of any kind, express or implied. Oliver Wyman disclaims any responsibility to update the information or conclusions in this report. Oliver Wyman accepts no liability for any loss arising from any action taken or refrained from as a result of information contained in this report or any reports or sources of information referred to herein, or for any consequential, special or similar damages even if advised of the possibility of such damages. The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This report may not be sold without the written consent of Oliver Wyman.
www.oliverwyman.com