McGraw-HillMcGraw-Hill © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.© 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Trend Forecastin

gChapter Five

Core Concepts in Fashion by Laura Portolese DiasCore Concepts in Fashion by Laura Portolese Dias

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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting

Fashion forecasting is the process of predicting new trends– Can use a variety of tools to predict– Newspapers, magazines

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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting

Trickle-up theory– Thorstein Veblen

First discussed the idea of social classes

– George Simmel Believed in order for a fashion to become accepted, it

first had to be accepted by upper classes Theory suggests because people in the lower classes

prefer to associate themselves with upper class, they would eventually adopt the fashion of upper class.

At this point in time, the fashion would be rejected by the upper class

Theory is hard to apply today because there are many more classes and social structure is much different

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Trickle up theory– Sometimes called the “bottom up

theory”– Fashion begins in lower classes of

society and trickles up, then is eventually copied by upper classes

– Example: Grunge fashion

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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting

Trickle across theory – Sometimes called the horizontal flow theory – Believes that fashion flows in between

social groups– Sometimes lower classes will start trends,

and sometimes upper classes will start trends

– Mass communication, such as the internet allows people to see all forms of fashion

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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting

External Forces effecting fashion– Social– Economic– Political– Legal– Technological – Global

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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting

Social issues effecting fashion– Age

View on age has changed People in the upper years of their life are

more active No longer an “expected” outfit for someone

based solely on age

– Women in the workforce Needed new types of clothing as women

entered the workforce

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Social Issues effecting fashion– Men and their appearance

Acceptable for men to care about their appearance

Special creams, lotion and clothing developed for men in recent years

– Ethnic influences Ethnic clothing can inspire new designs Immigrant population of United States brings

many forms of fashion together

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Economic Forces effecting fashion– Consumer income

Total income– The amount a person makes from all sources

Personal income– The total amount of income less social security

taxes Disposable income

– The total amount of income less federal income taxes, sales tax and property tax

Discretionary income– The amount left over after paying all taxes and

paying for necessities like food and rent

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Economic Forces effecting fashion– Purchasing power

The amount of goods which can be purchased for the same amount of money in a given time period

Things effecting purchasing power:– Interest rates– Inflation– Recessions and layoffs

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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting

Legal forces effecting fashion– Mergers or acquisition

The sale of a company to another

– Importing regulations Importing is when a good from one country

is sent to another country

– Requirements for labeling Concerns how products should be labeled For example, requirements for care of

garment

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Political forces effecting fashion– Clothing can change depending on

which party is in office Technological forces effecting

fashion– Ability to communicate new fashions

quicker through internet– Use of computers for garment design– Online shopping

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Global Issues effecting fashion– Trade agreements

For example, NAFTA made it possible to have clothing made in Mexico and ship to the United States at no additional cost

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Tools to predict fashion– Primary data

Data which is researched and gathered For example, watching for new trends at a

local club would be considered primary data

– Secondary data Newspapers, magazines, websites-any type

of data which was not gathered by you

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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting

Collection reports– Expensive but helpful– Shows sketches, textile selection and

other important data about a designer collection

Trend reports– Similar to collection reports, but focus

on a variety of designers, rather than just one designer

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Color services– Research and predict new upcoming colors

Websites– Can research websites to find out about

street trends Trade publications– Any publication made for a specific

industry– Women’s Wear Daily is an example

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Music/Movies/Television– Watching what stars are wearing can be

a good predictor of new fashions Street Fashion– Watching what the everyday trendsetter

is wearing can help predict fashion