Education Policy and PlanningMasters in Human Rights and Ethics of International Cooperation

University of Bergamo

Morocco Education Sector Analysis

Sobhi TAWIL8-10 March 2012

Contents

1. Context : Development trends and challenges in Morocco

2. Education sector diagnosis : AccessEquityQualityEfficiency (Internal & External)Governance

3. Analysis : How can the educational crisis be explained?

ContextDevelopment trends and challenges

in Morocco

Average per capita income 2005

Country GDP per capita (USD)

Income Level

Qatar 52,240 Kuwait 31,861 UAE 28,612 Bahrain 17,773 Saudi Arabia 13,399

Oman 9,584

High

Libya 6,621 Lebanon 6,135

Algeria 3,112 Tunisia 2,860 Jordan 2,323 Morocco 1,711 Syria 1,382

Egypt 1,207 Palestine 1,107 Djibouti 894

Medium

Yemen 718 Sudan 760 Mauritania 603

Low

Source: Données adaptées du Rapport sur le Développement dans le Monde 2007-08 (PNUD, 2007).

Levels of Human Development 2005

Human Development Index (HDI)

Country

HDI value

International Ranking

HDI Level

Kuweait 0.891 33 Qatar 0.875 35 UAE 0.868 39 Bahrain 0.866 41 Libya 0.818 56 Oman 0.814 58 Saudi Arabia 0.812 61

High

Jordan 0.773 86 Lebanon 0.772 88 Tunisia 0.766 91

Algeria 0.733 104 Palestine 0.731 106 Syria 0.724 108 Morocco 0.646 126 Egypt 0.708 112

Mauritania 0.550 137 Sudan 0.526 147 Djibouti 0.516 149 Yemen 0.508 153

Medium

Source : UNDP 2007. Note : Un niveau IDH élevé est défini par une valeur de 0.800 ou plus. Un niveau IDH moyen est défini par une valeur se situant entre 5.00 et 0.799.

Population and Demographic Structure

Source: UNDP 2007.

Pays

Population Totale (millions)

Population urbaine

(% du total)

Population moins de 15

ans (% du total)

Algérie 32.9 63.3 29.6 Arabie saoudite 23.6 81.0 34.5 Bahreïn 0.7 96.5 26.3 Djibouti 0.8 86.1 38.5

Egypte 72.8 42.8 33.3 Emirats Arabes Unis 4.1 76.7 19.8 Jordanie 5.5 82.3 37.2 Kuweit 2.7 98.3 23.8 Liban 4.0 86.6 28.6 Libye 5.9 84.8 30.3

Maroc 30.5 58.7 30.3 Mauritanie 3.0 40.4 40.3 Palestine 3.8 71.6 45.9 Oman 2.5 71.5 33.8 Qatar 0.8 95.4 21.7

Soudan 36.9 40.8 40.7 Syrie 18.9 50.6 36.6 Tunisie 10.1 65.3 26.0 Yémen 21.1 27.3 45.8

Evolution of rural and urban poverty 1984 -1999 Relative number of persons living in poverty & pove rty rates

Evolution of people living in poverty and rate of p overty in Morocco Date

Residence

Poverty line

(in DH)

Absolute number of persons living in poverty (‘000)

Poverty rate (%)

Urban

1966

1300

13.8

Rural 1760 3300 26.7

1984/85

Total - 4600 21.1

Urban

2725

912

7.6

Rural 2439 2448 18.0

1990/91

Total - 3360 13.1

Urban

3922

1814

12.0

Rural 3037 3496 27.2

1998/99

Total - 5310 19.0

Source : Direction de la Statistique. Based on LSMS data for 1991 and 1999.

• The weight of the share of youth in total population

• Significant social and regional disparities

• High incidence of rural poverty

• Urban poverty and economic vulnerability

2. Educational Sector Diagnosis

• Access and equity• Quality• Internal efficiency• External efficiency• Governance

Access and Equity

Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) in primary (1991-2008) :Distribution by sex

Source : Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.

Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) primary (1991-2008) :Distribution by Urban/Rural residence

Source : Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.

Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) Lower secondary (1991-200 8) : Distribution by sex

Source : Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.

Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) Lower Secondary (1991-200 8) : Distribution by U/R residence

Source : Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.

Adult Literacy 2000

40 41.2

4950.7

55.6

59.9

68.9

73.2 74.477.3 77.9

81.7 82.9 82.9 84.287

88.590.9

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Iraq

Mau

ritan

iaYem

enM

orocc

o

Egypt

Sudan

Algeria

Tunisi

a

Oman

UAES. A

rabia

Libya

Kuwait

Syria

Qatar

Leba

non

Bahra

inJo

rdan

Countries

% o

f the

pop

ulat

ion

Declining Adult Illiteracy (1960-2008)

87

75

65

54

4338,5

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60 71 82 94 04 06 08Année

taux d'analphabétisme

Source : Bilan 2007-2008 et Enquête nationale sur l’analphabétisme, la non scolarisation et la déscolarisation au

Maroc, décembre 2006, Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Alphabétisation et à l’Education Non Formelle

Literacy Rates (10+) Morocco: Distribution by gender and residence (2004)

Source : Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Alphabétisation et à l’Education Non Formelle, bilan 2004-2005.

Residence

Gender

Urban

Rural

Total

Male

81,2

54

69,2

Female

60,5

25,5

45,3

Total

70,6

39,5

57

Literacy Rates (10+ ) Morocco Distribution by income group and gender

Income quintile Gender

I II III IV V

Total

Male

42.4

50.2

56.8

66.6

81.6

60.5

Female

16.5

19.5

28.9

37.4

52.4

31.7

Total

28.3

34.6

42.0

50.9

66.6

45.3

Note: Groupe de revenu (quintile) base sur estimation des dépenses par habitant. Quintile I représente le niveau de dépenses le plus faible. Quintile V représente le niveau de dépenses le plus élevé. Source: Données issues de l’Ennvm 1991.

Quality of Learning

TIMSS 2003 : Results for Grade 8

TIMSS 2007 : Results in mathematics

TIMSS 2007 : Results in science

Internal & External Efficiency

Drop Out RatesPrimary and Lower Secondary (1991-2006)

Drop Out RatesUpper Secondary Education 1991-2006

Repeater RatesDistribution by level (1991-2006)

Unemployment and levels of educational attainment i n MoroccoDistribution by residence

Unemploment rates by level of educational attainmen t Maghreb 2005

Source : Ammour, L. (2006). « Changement social et immobilisme politique au Maghreb central ». In Dufourcq, J. & L. Borgomano-Loup (Eds). Le Maghreb stratégique (2ème partie). Rome. NATO Defense College. NDC Occasional Papers Series.

Level of Educational Attainment Country

None

Primary

Secondary

Higher

Share of youth (15-29) in overall unemployment (en %)

Algeria

10

30

30

68

67

Morocco

9

28

31

38

39

Tunisia

10

21

16

8

69

Education as a « Ticket to Nowhere »

"Literacy and education are for many a ticket to nowhere. The longer this phenomenon persists, the more likely a growing disillusionment with such skills will set in, with undoubtedly drastic long-term results".

Lavy, Spratt & Leboucher (1995: 29)

Symptoms of multidimensional crisis

Educational Crisis in Morocco

• Incomplete and inequitable access to basic education

• High graduate unemployment

• The paradox of public spending in education

Growth in public educational expenditure (1966-1995 )

Year

MoE

Budget (current)

(1)

CPI

(average)

(2)

MoE

Budget (adjusted)

(3)

Growth in Spending

(in real terms)

(4)

Pop.

Growth Rate

(5)

Growth in Spending (per cap)

(6)

GDP

(per cap)

(7)

1966

523

100

523

1.0

1.0

-

1.0

1970

669

133.0

503

0.962

1.10

- 0.04

1.095

1976

2547

188.7

1349.8

2.58

1.28

1.30

1.26

1980

3529

238.2

1481.5

2.83

1.41

1.42

1.37

1985

6079

340.4

1785.8

3.41

1.60

1.81

1.54

1990

10187

486.4

2094.4

4.0

1.82

2.18

1.73

1995

15215

695.0

2189.2

4.19

2.07

2.12

1.93

Note: Data based on a rate of inflation of 5.9 percent for 1965-1980 and of 7.4 percent for 1980-1989 (World Development Report: The World Bank, 1990). Key: (1) MoE budget in current prices (000,000 Dh.). (2) Average Consumer Price Index. (3) MoE budget adjusted to 1966 Dh. (000,000 Dh.). (4) Rate of growth of public expenditure in real terms. (5) Rate of demographic growth in terms of the 1966 population. (6) Rate of per capita public expenditure in real terms. (7) Rate of growth of GDP per capita.

Growth in primary educational expenditure

1966-1995

Year

MoE Budget

(current)

MoE Budget (adjusted)

Growth of

Educational Spending

Per Capita

Educational Spending

GDP

Per capita

1966

303.7

303.7

1.0

-

1.0

1970

313.4

235.6

0.775

-0.325

1.095

1976

864.7

458.2

1.508

0.228

1.26

1981

1801.3

704.2

2.318

0.872

1.41

1988

3192.3

757.0

2.492

0.764

1.649

1995

5010.7

721.0

2.374

0.304

1.93

Note: All figures adjusted to 1966.

Causes of non-take up of primary schooling in Morocco Urban/rural disaggregation Causes (% of total)

Urban

Rural

Total

1

Provision of schooling

6.3

25.8

23.7

2

Economic constraints

39.7

39.4

39.4

3

Attitudes and values

13.5

22.6

21.6

4

Family difficulties

14.3

6.2

7.0

5

Other factors

33.2

6.7

9.4

Source : Based on Moroccan Living Standards Measurement Survey data . Note (1) = Local school unavailable (2) = Lack of money and demand for child work within or outside the family. (3) = Negative attitudes towards schooling & benefits, lack of interest.

3. Explaining the educational crisis

• The weight of history : colonial heritage

• The high incidence of poverty

• Weak strategic sector management

• Inequitable educational policies

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