Mass. special Democratic primary poll

8/14/2019 Mass. special Democratic primary poll

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BOSTON GLOBE

DECEMBER2009,MASPECIAL DEMOCRATIC

PRIMARY POLL

NOVEMBER2009

Prepared by:

Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.

Chad S. Novak

The Survey CenterUniversity of New Hampshire

November 22, 2009


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Contents

Technical Report.......................................................................... 1

Questionnaire............................................................................... 2

Data Tables ................................................................................14


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1

The Boston Globe Poll #24

December 2009 Special Democratic Primary

Conducted by the UNH Survey Center

November 2009

Technical Report

Field Period: November 13 - 18, 2009

Hours: 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.

Median Completion Time: 11 minutes

Sample Size: 537 randomly selected (RDD) Massachusetts likely Democratic primary voters

Sampling Error: Full sample +/- 4.4%. Sampling error for subgroups is larger.

Response Rate (AAPOR #4): 21%


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The Boston Globe Poll #24

December 2009 MA Democratic Primary Poll

Conducted by the UNH Survey Center

November 2009

* = DEFINED MISSING VALUE

INTROThis is the University of New Hampshire. My name is _____________________ and were conducting ashort, confidential survey of voters in Massachusetts about the upcoming Democratic primary election for USSenate, and we'd really appreciate your help and cooperation. The survey will only take about 10 minutes.

1 CONTINUE

2 NO DEMOCRATIC VOTERS VOLUNTEERED3 WONT VOTE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOLUNTEERED

99 REFUSED

INTRO2Are any of the voters who currently live in your household registered to vote as Democrats orIndependents?

1 YES SKIP TO BIR12 NO TERMINATE

98 DONT KNOW / NOT SURE SKIP TO INTRO3

99 REFUSED

INTRO3Could I please speak to the person who you think might be registered as a Democrat or an Independent?

1 YES SKIPTO INTRO42 NOT AVAILABLE ASK FOR NAME AND MAKE APPOINTMENT

99 REFUSED


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BIR1In order to determine who to interview, could you tell me, of the voters who are registered as Democrats orIndependents who currently live in your household -- including yourself -- who had the most recent birthday?I dont mean who is the youngest voter, but rather, who had the most recent birthday?

1 INFORMANT SKIP TO SEX2 SOMEONE ELSE (SPECIFY): ________________ SKIP TO INTRO4

3 DON'T KNOW ALL BIRTHDAYS, ONLY SOME

CONTINUE WITH BIR2 BELOW4 DON'T KNOW ANY BIRTHDAYS OTHER THAN OWN SKIP TO SEX

99 REFUSED -- ENTER NON-RESPONSE INFORMATION

BIR2Of the ones that you do know, who had the most recent birthday?

1 INFORMANT _____ SKIP TO SEX2 SOMEONE ELSE (SPECIFY): _______________________ SKIP TO INTRO43 PERSON NOT AVAILABLE

99 REFUSED

INT2ASK TO SPEAK TO THAT PERSONHello, this is _____________________ calling from the University of New Hampshire. We are wereconducting a very short, confidential survey of voters in Massachusetts about the upcoming Democraticprimary election for US Senate, and we'd really appreciate your help and cooperation. The survey will onlytake about 10 minutes. You have been identified as the registered voter in your household who had the mostrecent birthday. Is this correct?

1 YES2 APPOINTMENT

99 REFUSAL

SEXThank you very much for helping us with this important survey. We really appreciate your help. Before webegin I want to assure you that all of your answers are strictly confidential. They will be combined withanswers from other people from across the state. Your telephone number was randomly selected from allfamilies in Massachusetts. This call may be monitored for quality assurance.

Participation is voluntary. If you decide to participate, you may decline to answer any question or end theinterview at any time.

IF ASKED: This survey will take about ten minutes to complete.

RECORD SEX OF RESPONDENT

1 MALE2 FEMALE

* 99 NA


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REGVOTEAre you registered to vote as a Democrat, Independent, Republican or something else?

1 REGISTERED DEMOCRAT SKIP TO PR20082 REGISTERED INDEPENDENT / UNAFFILIATED CONTINUE WITH DKGOVPR3 REGISTERED REPUBLICAN TERMINATE4 REGISTERED OTHER TERMINATE

98 NOT REGISTERED / DK (DO NOT PROBE) TERMINATE* 99 NA / REFUSED

DKSENPRAs you probably know, there is a special primary election for US Senator from Massachusetts to fill TedKennedys seat. Will you be more likely to vote in the Republican primary the Democratic primary orwould you skip the special primary election?

1 VOTE IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY TERMINATE2 VOTE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY SKIPTO PR2008

3 DK / NOT SURE-PROBE: "As of today, which primary are you most likely to vote in?"TERMINATE

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN SPECIAL PRIMARY TERMINATE

* 99 NA / REFUSED

PR2008Thinking back, did you vote in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primary election in Massachusetts?

1 YES2 NO

98 DK / NOT SURE99 NA/REFUSED

PR2006And did you vote in the 2006 Democratic primary election for candidates for Governor and other offices?

1 YES2 NO

98 DK / NOT SURE99 NA/REFUSED


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VOTEINTAs you know, there is a special Democratic primary election for the nominee for US Senator being held onDecember 8. How interested would you say you are in the special primary election US Senator ... extremelyinterested ... very interested ... somewhat interested ... or not very interested?

1 EXTREMELY INTERESTED2 VERY INTERESTED

3 SOMEWHAT INTERESTED4 NOT VERY INTERESTED

98 DK (DO NOT PROBE)* 99 NA

LIKEVOTEWhich of the following statements best describes you ... (READ NUMBERS 1 TO 5)

1 I will probably NOT vote in the December special Democratic primary election,TERMINATE

2 I MAY vote in the Democratic primary election, TERMINATE

3 Unless some emergency comes up, I WILL vote in the Democratic primary election,4 I will DEFINITELY vote in the Democratic primary election, or5 I just don't know at this time. TERMINATE

* 99 NA/REFUSED TERMINATE

FAVI'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you know enough about him or her to say. First ...how about ... ROTATE FAV1 TO FAV4

FAV1Congressman Michael Capuano (cap-you-AH-no).(READ IF NECESSARY)"Would you say you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him or dont you know enough about him to

say?"

1 FAVORABLE2 NEITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE - VOLUNTEERED3 UNFAVORABLE

98 DK / NEVER HEARD OF / KNOW TOO LITTLE TO SAY* 99 NA / REFUSED

FAV2 Attorney General Martha Coakley.

(READ IF NECESSARY)"Would you say you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her or dont you know enough about her to

say?"

FAV3 City Year Founder Alan Khazei (KAY-zee).

FAV4 Businessman Steve Pagliuca (pal-ee-YOU-ka).


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PRIMFIRMHave you definitely decided who you will vote for in the special primary election for US Senator are youleaning toward a candidate or have you considered the candidates and still trying to make up your mind?

1 DEFINITELYDECIDED2 LEANINGTOWARDACANDIDATE3 STILLTRYINGTODECIDE

98 DK (DO NOT PROBE)99 NA / REFUSED

DEMSENIf the Democratic primary for US Senator from Massachusetts were held today, which of the followingcandidates would you vote for ... Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or StevePagliuca?" (ROTATE CANDIDATES)

1 MICHAEL CAPUANO2 MARTHA COAKELY

3 ALAN KHAZEI4 STEVE PAGLIUCA5 OTHER CANDIDATE SPECIFY

97 WILL NOT VOTE TERMINATE98 DK / NOT SURE SKIP TO LEAN

* 99 NA / REFUSED

LEANWhich candidate would you say you are leaning toward at this time ... Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca?"

1 MICHAEL CAPUANO2 MARTHA COAKELY3 ALAN KHAZEI4 STEVE PAGLIUCA5 OTHER CANDIDATE SPECIFY

98 DK / NOT SURE SKIP TO ISS1* 99 NA / REFUSED

SECONDWhich candidate would be your second choice (READ LIST WITHOUT 1ST CHOICE) ... Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca?"

1 MICHAEL CAPUANO2 MARTHA COAKELY3 ALAN KHAZEI4 STEVE PAGLIUCA5 OTHER CANDIDATE SPECIFY

97 NO SECOND CHOICE - VOLUNTEERED98 DK / NOT SURE SKIP TO ISS1

* 99 NA / REFUSED


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MIPSENWhat do you think is the most IMPORTANT problem or issue in the race for Senator from Massachusetts?

PROBE: Could you be more SPECIFIC or give me an example?

RECORD VERBATIM PROBE FOR SPECIFIC RESPONSE

ISSNow I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handlethat issue if they were elected Senator. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting forthat person. Which candidate do you think would do the best job handling

ROTATE ISS1 TO ISS3

ISS1Health care reform?

READ IF NECESSARY: Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca?"

1 MICHAEL CAPUANO2 MARTHA COAKELY3 ALAN KHAZEI4 STEVE PAGLIUCA5 ALL EQUAL

98 DK / NOT SURE* 99 NA / REFUSED

ISS2The war in Afghanistan?

ISS3Improving the US economy?

PACHow important is it that a candidate refuses to accept contributions from PACs and lobbyists in decidingwho you will vote for very important somewhat important or not important at all?

1 VERY IMPORTANT2 SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT3 NOT IMPORTANT AT ALL



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KENNEDY1How important is it that a candidate shares the values of Ted Kennedy in deciding who you will vote for very important somewhat important or not important at all?

1 VERY IMPORTANT2 SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT3 NOT IMPORTANT AT ALL


HC1As you may know, Congress is debating a major health care reform bill that could end up restricting federalfunding for abortions. Which of the following best represents your position on this issue ... the bill should bepassed even with limits on abortion funding ... the bill should be passed only if the limits are removed ... orthe bill should not be passed either way.

1 PASS HEALTH CARE BILL WITH ABORTION LIMITS

2 DO NOT PASS UNLESS ABORTION LIMITS ARE REMOVED3 SHOULD NOT PASS EITHER WAY


CANDNow, Id like you to think about the kinds of experience that different candidates might have and how thatmay impact your vote.

ROTATE CAND1 TO CAND4

CAND1If a candidate has extensive experience in Congress, would that make you more or less likely to vote forthem, or would that make little difference in your vote?

1 MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR2 NO DIFFERENCE IN VOTE3 LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR


CAND2If a candidate is a political outsider with extensive experience in non profit organizations, would that makeyou more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?




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CAND3If a candidate has extensive experience as a prosecutor, would that make you more or less likely to vote forthem, or would that make little difference in your vote?



CAND4If a candidate has extensive business experience, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them,or would that make little difference in your vote?



CAND5Which candidate do you think best understands the problems of people like yourself Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca?" ROTATE CANDIDATE NAMES



CAND6Which candidate do you think is the most qualified candidate Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca?" ROTATE CANDIDATE NAMES




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CAND7Which candidate would you most like to have a beer with Michael Capuano Martha Coakley AlanKhazei or Steve Pagliuca?" ROTATE CANDIDATE NAMES

1 MICHAEL CAPUANO2 MARTHA COAKELY3 ALAN KHAZEI

4 STEVE PAGLIUCA5 ALL EQUAL


WINWhich candidate do you think will win the Democratic nomination for US Senate Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca?" ROTATE CANDIDATE NAMES

1 MICHAEL CAPUANO

2 MARTHA COAKELY3 ALAN KHAZEI4 STEVE PAGLIUCA5 ALL EQUAL


EXPER"Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who has had government experience from holding anelected office ... would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who is a newcomer to politics and whocould bring other kinds of experience to the job ... or would that make little difference in your vote?"

1 PREFER CANDIDATE WITH POLITICAL EXPERIENCE2 PREFER NEWCOMER TO POLITICS3 MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE


WOMAN1All things being equal, would you prefer to vote for a man or a woman for US Senator, or would that makelittle difference in your vote?

1 WANT TO VOTE FOR A MAN2 WANT TO VOTE FOR A WOMAN3 MAKES NO DIFFERENCE



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TOWNNow, a few final questions . . .

What town do you live? ENTER NUMBER OF TOWN FROM SHEET.

997 OTHER SPECIFY _____________________________998 DK - DO NOT PROBE

* 999 NA / REFUSED

D1What is the highest grade in school, or level of education that youve completed and got credit for ...[READ RESPONSES]

1 Eighth grade or less,2 Some high school,3 High school graduate, (INCLUDES G.E.D.)4 Technical school,5 Some college,

6 College graduate,7 Or postgraduate work?

8 DK (DO NOT PROBE)* 9 NA / REFUSED

D2We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. What about yourself -- that is, in politics,do you generally think of yourself as a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative? (PROBE: In general . . .)

(IF LIBERAL): Would you say you are EXTREMELY liberal, FAIRLY liberal, or just SOMEWHATliberal?(IF CONSERVATIVE): Would you say you are EXTREMELY conservative, FAIRLY conservative, or justSOMEWHAT conservative?(IF MODERATE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD): Would you say that you LEAN a little more toward theLIBERAL side or the CONSERVATIVE side?

1 EXTREMELY LIBERAL2 FAIRLY LIBERAL3 SOMEWHAT LIBERAL4 MODERATE--LEANS LIBERAL5 MODERATE--LEANS NEITHER6 MODERATE--LEANS CONSERVATIVE7 SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE8 FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE9 EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE

* 97 REFUSED* 98 DK (PROBE: In general . . .)* 99 NA / REFUSED


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D3What is your current age?

___ ___: : : : (RECORD EXACT NUMBER OF YEARS OLD -- E.G., 45): : : :

96 NINETY-SIX YEARS OF AGE OR OLDER

* 97 REFUSED* 98 DK* 99 NA

D4Are you of Hispanic or Spanish origin?"

1 YES2 NO

98 DON'T KNOW

* 99 REFUSED

D5Which of the following best describes your race? Is it ...White ... African-American ... Asian ... Native-American ... or some other race?

1 WHITE (CAUCASIAN)2 BLACK (AFRICAN-AMERICAN)3 HISPANIC4 ASIAN5 NATIVE AMERICAN6 OTHER SPECIFY: ________________________________

98 DONT KNOW99 NO ANSWER/REFUSED

D6Including yourself, how many DEMOCRATIC VOTERS CURRENTLY live in your household?

1 ONE2 TWO3 THREE4 FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7 SEVEN OR MORE

98 DK* 99 NA / REFUSED


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D7Not counting business lines, extension phones, or cellular phones -- on how many different telephoneNUMBERS can your household be reached?

1 ONE2 TWO3 THREE

4 FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7 SEVEN OR MORE

98 DK* 99 NA / REFUSED

D8How much TOTAL income did you and your family receive in 2008, not just from wages or salaries butfrom ALL sources -- that is, before taxes and other deductions were made? Was it ... (READ

CATEGORIES)

ANNUAL MONTHLY EQUIVALENT1 Less than $15,000, LESS THAN $1,2502 $15,000 - $29,999, $1,250 - $2,4993 $30,000 - $44,999, $2,500 - $3,7494 $45,000 - $59,999, $3,750 - $4,9995 $60,000 - $74,999, $5,000 - $6,2496 $75,000 - $99,999, or $6,250 - $8,3337 $100,000 and over? $8,334 AND OVER

* 97 REFUSED* 98 DK* 99 NA

D9Finally, would you be willing to be interviewed by a reporter to discuss your reactions to some of the topicsweve been talking about?

1 YES Could I have just your first name in case a reporter wants to call you? _________2 NO / DK (DO NOT PROBE)

99 NA / REFUSED

Thank you for your time and participation. Your input has been very valuable. Goodbye.


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Tabular Results


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If the Democratic primary for US Senator from Massachusetts were held today, which of the following candidates would you votefor ... Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca? [WITH LEANERS]

Don't

Capuano Coakley Khazei Pagliuca Other Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 22% 43% 6% 15% 1% 13% 536

Registered Democrat 26% 42% 6% 11% 1% 14% 336Registered Unaffiliated 16% 43% 6% 21% 1% 12% 200

Definitely decided Vote 24% 54% 9% 11% 0% 0% 136Leaning towards someone 27% 53% 6% 14% 0% 0% 126Still trying to decide 20% 33% 4% 17% 1% 25% 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 32% 37% 8% 10% 0% 12% 176Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 16% 48% 6% 19% 0% 12% 180Moderate to Conservative 19% 44% 2% 16% 2% 17% 152

Capuano as 2nd choice 4% 71% 5% 18% 0% 2% 140Coakley as 2nd choice 59% 2% 12% 28% 0% 0% 123Khazei as 2nd choice 21% 59% 0% 20% 0% 0% 43Pagliuca as 2nd choice 32% 67% 0% 0% 0% 1% 64Other/Undecided 6% 28% 3% 2% 0% 60% 92

No Second Choice 12% 45% 11% 13% 3% 16% 73

Male 24% 33% 9% 24% 1% 10% 213Female 22% 49% 4% 9% 0% 15% 323

35 or under 21% 27% 4% 29% 0% 18% 3335 to 49 24% 41% 8% 16% 0% 12% 13450 to 64 21% 44% 5% 13% 1% 15% 21965 and over 25% 44% 5% 16% 0% 8% 126

White 22% 43% 6% 16% 1% 12% 476African American 22% 47% 8% 8% 0% 16% 29Other 22% 36% 0% 14% 0% 28% 24

High school or less 28% 38% 2% 17% 0% 15% 73Some college 18% 52% 1% 18% 1% 10% 103College graduate 22% 40% 6% 19% 0% 14% 185

Post-graduate 24% 42% 11% 8% 1% 14% 174

Less than $30K 26% 45% 1% 20% 0% 7% 47$30K to $60K 22% 41% 6% 18% 0% 14% 75$60K to $75K 33% 36% 2% 13% 0% 15% 40$75K to $100K 21% 44% 6% 20% 0% 10% 65$100K or more 23% 45% 10% 14% 1% 7% 147

Western MA 25% 33% 5% 17% 0% 20% 72Central MA 14% 51% 4% 21% 1% 10% 68Essex 26% 52% 3% 9% 0% 10% 65Middlesex 28% 44% 8% 8% 2% 10% 128

Norfolk/Suffolk 19% 41% 10% 18% 0% 12% 111Southern/Cape 21% 39% 4% 18% 0% 19% 92

Extremely interested 20% 40% 8% 17% 2% 13% 157Very interested 27% 43% 5% 14% 0% 11% 230Somewhat interested 17% 47% 4% 16% 0% 16% 140

Not very interested 39% 7% 28% 5% 0% 21% 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 19% 34% 0% 31% 0% 16% 17Voted once 18% 40% 8% 16% 2% 16% 86Voted twice 24% 44% 6% 14% 0% 13% 433


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If the Democratic primary for US Senator from Massachusetts were held today, which of the following candidates would you votefor ... Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca? [NO LEANERS]

Don't

Capuano Coakley Khazei Pagliuca Other Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 21% 40% 6% 13% 0% 19% 535




Capuano as 2nd choice 4% 69% 5% 18% 0% 4% 140Coakley as 2nd choice 55% 2% 12% 22% 0% 10% 123Khazei as 2nd choice 18% 51% 0% 16% 0% 15% 43Pagliuca as 2nd choice 32% 61% 0% 0% 0% 7% 63Other/Undecided 5% 26% 3% 2% 0% 64% 92

No Second Choice 12% 41% 11% 12% 2% 22% 73

Male 22% 32% 9% 20% 1% 16% 213Female 21% 45% 4% 8% 0% 21% 322




Post-graduate 23% 39% 11% 7% 1% 19% 174








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Which candidate would be your second choice (READ LIST WITHOUT 1ST CHOICE) ... Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca?"

No Second Don't

Capuano Coakley Khazei Pagliuca Other Choice Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 26% 23% 8% 12% 0% 14% 17% 536

Capuano voter 4% 60% 7% 17% 0% 7% 5% 120Coakley voter 44% 1% 11% 19% 1% 14% 11% 229Khazei voter 20% 45% 0% 0% 0% 25% 9% 32Pagliuca voter 32% 42% 11% 0% 1% 12% 2% 80Other/Undecided voter 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 19% 75% 74

Registered Democrat 25% 25% 9% 11% 0% 12% 18% 336Registered Unaffiliated 28% 19% 7% 14% 1% 16% 15% 200

Definitely decided Vote 30% 22% 11% 11% 0% 18% 6% 136Leaning towards someone 28% 29% 10% 11% 1% 15% 6% 126Still trying to decide 24% 21% 6% 13% 0% 11% 26% 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 29% 28% 9% 7% 0% 12% 14% 176Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 24% 24% 9% 12% 0% 13% 18% 180Moderate to Conservative 24% 17% 7% 19% 1% 16% 17% 152

Male 26% 28% 6% 11% 0% 16% 12% 213

Female 26% 19% 9% 13% 1% 12% 20% 323

35 or under 37% 13% 0% 13% 0% 18% 19% 3335 to 49 22% 33% 3% 14% 0% 12% 17% 13450 to 64 27% 21% 11% 9% 1% 14% 17% 21965 and over 27% 20% 9% 14% 1% 14% 15% 126

White 26% 23% 8% 12% 1% 14% 17% 476African American 24% 23% 17% 13% 0% 5% 17% 29Other 26% 23% 6% 13% 0% 12% 20% 24

High school or less 31% 19% 4% 19% 1% 10% 17% 73Some college 23% 15% 11% 15% 2% 18% 16% 103College graduate 27% 26% 9% 7% 0% 12% 18% 185Post-graduate 25% 27% 7% 12% 0% 14% 15% 174

Less than $30K 31% 12% 8% 21% 1% 15% 12% 47$30K to $60K 28% 24% 6% 9% 0% 16% 16% 75$60K to $75K 16% 23% 12% 18% 0% 9% 23% 40$75K to $100K 24% 19% 17% 8% 0% 19% 13% 65$100K or more 36% 28% 8% 12% 0% 9% 7% 147

Western MA 18% 35% 5% 6% 0% 12% 23% 72Central MA 27% 16% 4% 15% 1% 23% 15% 68Essex 30% 17% 8% 14% 0% 18% 12% 65Middlesex 25% 29% 6% 12% 0% 13% 15% 128

Norfolk/Suffolk 30% 20% 17% 8% 2% 9% 14% 111Southern/Cape 25% 18% 6% 17% 0% 12% 22% 92


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Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the special primary election for US Senator are you leaning toward acandidate or have you considered the candidates and still trying to make up your mind?

Definitely Still Trying Dont

Decided Leaning To Decide Know (N=)DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 26% 24% 50% 1% 537

Capuano voter 28% 28% 44% 0% 120Coakley voter 32% 29% 38% 0% 229Khazei voter 40% 24% 36% 0% 32Pagliuca voter 19% 22% 59% 0% 80Other/Undecided voter 1% 0% 94% 4% 74

Registered Democrat 29% 22% 48% 1% 336Registered Unaffiliated 19% 27% 54% 0% 201

Fairly to Extremely Lib 26% 30% 43% 0% 176Moderate to Somewhat Lib 25% 23% 52% 0% 180Indep. to Conservative 26% 19% 54% 2% 154

Male 25% 24% 51% 0% 213Female 26% 23% 50% 1% 324

35 or under 16% 20% 64% 0% 3335 to 49 29% 21% 50% 0% 134

50 to 64 20% 26% 54% 1% 21965 and over 36% 25% 39% 0% 126

White 27% 24% 48% 0% 477African American 24% 21% 55% 0% 29Other 12% 14% 67% 7% 24

High school or less 29% 15% 55% 1% 73Some college 23% 37% 37% 3% 105College graduate 25% 19% 56% 0% 185Post-graduate 26% 24% 50% 0% 174

Less than $30K 24% 29% 47% 0% 47$30K to $60K 27% 23% 49% 1% 75$60K to $75K 26% 19% 54% 0% 40

$75K to $100K 28% 26% 45% 1% 65$100K or more 22% 25% 53% 0% 147

Western MA 19% 17% 61% 3% 72Central MA 29% 14% 56% 1% 68Essex 31% 25% 44% 0% 65Middlesex 28% 25% 47% 0% 129

Norfolk/Suffolk 24% 26% 50% 0% 111Southern/Cape 23% 30% 48% 0% 92


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What do you think is the most IMPORTANT problem or issue in the race for Senator from Massachusetts?

Health Care Jobs/ Kennedy Educa- Iraq/ Character/ Don't

Reform Economy Legacy tion Afghan. Personal Other Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 38% 28% 5% 2% 4% 5% 13% 5% 532

Capuano voter 40% 26% 5% 1% 6% 5% 9% 7% 120Coakley voter 40% 29% 5% 1% 3% 7% 10% 4% 227Khazei voter 47% 2% 0% 7% 2% 10% 25% 7% 32Pagliuca voter 25% 42% 6% 1% 1% 1% 17% 7% 78Other/Undecided voter 39% 23% 5% 7% 3% 3% 15% 5% 73

Registered Democrat 42% 25% 3% 2% 3% 5% 13% 6% 334Registered Unaffiliated 31% 33% 8% 2% 4% 6% 12% 4% 198

Definitely decided Vote 39% 28% 6% 3% 1% 3% 14% 8% 137Leaning towards someone 39% 31% 4% 1% 4% 7% 11% 4% 126Still trying to decide 37% 26% 5% 3% 5% 6% 13% 5% 266

Fairly to Extremely Lib 46% 23% 4% 2% 5% 6% 6% 8% 174Moderate to Somewhat Lib 35% 29% 8% 2% 4% 6% 12% 3% 179Moderate to Conservative 35% 32% 2% 3% 2% 3% 20% 3% 152

Male 29% 33% 3% 1% 4% 6% 18% 6% 211Female 44% 25% 6% 3% 3% 4% 9% 5% 321

35 or under 28% 32% 8% 7% 4% 5% 7% 9% 3035 to 49 40% 27% 6% 2% 3% 4% 14% 5% 13450 to 64 40% 27% 2% 3% 5% 7% 11% 6% 21965 and over 35% 30% 5% 1% 2% 6% 16% 5% 126

White 40% 27% 5% 2% 3% 5% 13% 6% 474African American 35% 41% 0% 8% 0% 0% 8% 8% 28Other 12% 39% 0% 7% 8% 14% 20% 0% 24

High school or less 28% 28% 8% 3% 6% 4% 12% 12% 73Some college 33% 36% 5% 1% 1% 3% 15% 6% 102College graduate 43% 25% 5% 2% 2% 6% 12% 5% 183Post-graduate 39% 27% 4% 3% 6% 6% 12% 3% 174

Less than $30K 26% 32% 6% 0% 10% 3% 14% 9% 43$30K to $60K 37% 20% 2% 6% 7% 4% 13% 10% 75$60K to $75K 29% 54% 0% 4% 0% 0% 7% 5% 40$75K to $100K 51% 25% 6% 2% 3% 4% 9% 1% 65$100K or more 39% 29% 5% 2% 1% 7% 15% 2% 147

Western MA 40% 30% 8% 3% 3% 1% 11% 5% 71Central MA 29% 31% 12% 2% 3% 7% 10% 6% 66Essex 34% 21% 6% 5% 10% 8% 8% 7% 65Middlesex 41% 28% 1% 1% 2% 6% 14% 7% 128

Norfolk/Suffolk 38% 28% 3% 4% 0% 6% 19% 2% 110Southern/Cape 41% 30% 3% 1% 5% 4% 9% 7% 92


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"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable orunfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, how about ... Congressman Michael Capuano."

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N=)DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 56% 8% 14% 22% 536



Definitely decided Vote 57% 7% 20% 16% 138Leaning towards someone 60% 13% 12% 15% 126Still trying to decide 54% 6% 11% 28% 269

Fairly to Extremely Lib 70% 8% 7% 15% 176Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 50% 13% 15% 22% 180Moderate to Conservative 45% 5% 19% 31% 154

Male 56% 9% 14% 20% 213Female 56% 8% 13% 23% 323

35 or under 47% 11% 2% 40% 3335 to 49 48% 8% 12% 33% 13450 to 64 57% 8% 18% 16% 21865 and over 64% 8% 13% 16% 126



Less than $30K 52% 6% 13% 29% 46$30K to $60K 55% 5% 14% 26% 74$60K to $75K 58% 1% 15% 26% 40$75K to $100K 55% 4% 13% 28% 65$100K or more 63% 11% 13% 13% 147



Extremely interested 61% 9% 15% 15% 157Very interested 59% 8% 14% 19% 229

Somewhat interested 45% 9% 11% 35% 140 Not very interested 67% 12% 7% 13% 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 44% 15% 15% 26% 17Voted once 44% 10% 20% 25% 86Voted twice 59% 8% 12% 21% 433


23/41

21

"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable orunfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, how about ... Attorney General Martha Coakley."


VOTERS 71% 7% 13% 9% 535





Male 64% 6% 20% 10% 212Female 76% 8% 8% 8% 323











24/41

22

"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable orunfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, how about ... City Year Founder Alan Khazei."


VOTERS 28% 10% 12% 50% 536





Male 27% 9% 15% 49% 213Female 29% 11% 10% 50% 323











25/41

23

"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable orunfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, how about ... Businessman Steve Pagliuca."


VOTERS 40% 13% 22% 25% 537





Male 42% 18% 19% 21% 213Female 38% 10% 25% 27% 324











26/41

24

Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if they wereelected Senator. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which candidate do you thinkwould do the best job handling health care reform.

All Don't

Capuano Coakley Khazei Pagliuca Equal Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 20% 42% 4% 11% 2% 20% 534

Capuano voter 60% 17% 1% 4% 1% 16% 120Coakley voter 5% 78% 2% 3% 1% 11% 229Khazei voter 23% 1% 45% 0% 12% 19% 32Pagliuca voter 10% 18% 3% 52% 1% 16% 80Other/Undecided voter 12% 19% 0% 4% 6% 60% 72




Male 21% 37% 5% 15% 4% 18% 210Female 20% 46% 3% 8% 1% 22% 324




Post-graduate 25% 39% 6% 6% 1% 22% 172








27/41

25

Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if they wereelected Senator. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which candidate do you thinkwould do the best job handling the war in Afghanistan.

All Don't


DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 27% 20% 3% 8% 3% 39% 532





Male 28% 16% 2% 13% 5% 36% 210

Female 26% 22% 4% 5% 2% 41% 322



High school or less 31% 15% 2% 8% 2% 42% 73Some college 26% 28% 1% 14% 2% 29% 102College graduate 26% 17% 3% 9% 3% 43% 184Post-graduate 26% 20% 6% 3% 4% 40% 173




Extremely interested 31% 22% 4% 11% 3% 30% 158

Very interested 30% 22% 4% 6% 2% 36% 229Somewhat interested 17% 14% 2% 8% 5% 55% 136




28/41

26

Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if they wereelected Senator. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which candidate do you thinkwould do the best job handling improving the US economy.

All Don't


DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 18% 23% 4% 27% 3% 25% 536





Male 20% 16% 2% 37% 3% 22% 212

Female 17% 28% 5% 21% 3% 27% 324












29/41

27

How important is it that a candidate refuses to accept contributions from PACs and lobbyists in deciding who you will vote for very important somewhat important or not important at all?

Very Somewhat Not Important Don't

Important Important At All Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 42% 38% 17% 2% 537





Male 36% 38% 21% 4% 213

Female 46% 38% 15% 1% 324







Extremely interested 43% 39% 18% 0% 158

Very interested 43% 38% 17% 2% 230Somewhat interested 41% 38% 17% 3% 140

Not very interested 26% 10% 36% 28% 9



30/41

28

How important is it that a candidate shares the values of Ted Kennedy in deciding who you will vote for very important somewhat important or not important at all?

Very Somewhat Not Important Don't

Important Important At All Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 40% 37% 22% 1% 537





Male 28% 39% 32% 1% 213

Female 47% 36% 16% 0% 324







Extremely interested 48% 36% 15% 1% 158

Very interested 41% 39% 19% 1% 230Somewhat interested 31% 37% 32% 0% 140




31/41

29

As you may know, Congress is debating a major health care reform bill that could end up restricting federal funding for abortions.Which of the following best represents your position on this issue ... the bill should be passed even with limits on abortion funding ...the bill should be passed only if the limits are removed ... or the bill should not be passed either way.

Pass w/ Only Pass Dont Pass

Abortion w/Abortion Either Don't

Limits Limits Removed Way Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 43% 32% 19% 6% 532





Male 49% 24% 23% 4% 211Female 40% 37% 16% 7% 322



High school or less 39% 29% 28% 3% 72Some college 43% 22% 27% 8% 103

College graduate 37% 37% 19% 7% 184Post-graduate 53% 33% 10% 4% 173




Extremely interested 44% 36% 15% 4% 156Very interested 46% 30% 15% 9% 227Somewhat interested 39% 30% 27% 4% 140




32/41

30

If a candidate has extensive experience in Congress, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that makelittle difference in your vote?

More No Less Likely

Likely Difference To Vote Dont

Vote For In Vote For Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 43% 46% 10% 1% 537





Male 38% 47% 13% 2% 213Female 46% 45% 9% 1% 324



High school or less 58% 31% 8% 3% 73Some college 37% 50% 14% 0% 105College graduate 37% 48% 14% 2% 185

Post-graduate 46% 48% 6% 1% 174








33/41

31

If a candidate is a political outsider with extensive experience in non profit organizations, would that make you more or less likely tovote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?

More No Less Likely



DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 27% 56% 16% 2% 534





Male 27% 58% 15% 0% 211Female 27% 54% 16% 3% 323




Post-graduate 25% 57% 17% 1% 174








34/41

32

If a candidate has extensive experience as a prosecutor, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that makelittle difference in your vote?

More No Less Likely



DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 22% 65% 11% 2% 537





Male 25% 64% 10% 1% 213Female 21% 66% 11% 3% 324




Post-graduate 18% 70% 11% 1% 174








35/41

33

If a candidate has extensive business experience, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make littledifference in your vote?

More No Less Likely



DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 39% 48% 10% 3% 537





Male 44% 48% 6% 2% 213Female 35% 47% 13% 4% 324




Post-graduate 27% 54% 16% 3% 174








36/41

34

Which candidate do you think best understands the problems of people like yourself Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca?"

All Don't


DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 19% 35% 6% 13% 5% 22% 533





Male 21% 25% 9% 18% 5% 22% 210

Female 18% 41% 5% 10% 5% 21% 323












37/41

35

Which candidate do you think is the most qualified candidate Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or StevePagliuca?"

All Don't


DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 25% 35% 2% 10% 6% 23% 532





Male 29% 30% 3% 13% 6% 20% 212

Female 22% 39% 1% 7% 5% 25% 320












38/41

36

Which candidate would you most like to have a beer with Michael Capuano Martha Coakley Alan Khazei or StevePagliuca?"

All Don't


DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 15% 26% 7% 20% 8% 24% 522





Male 17% 14% 8% 28% 7% 26% 207

Female 14% 33% 7% 15% 9% 23% 316












39/41

37

Which candidate do you think will win the Democratic nomination for US Senate Michael Capuano Martha Coakley AlanKhazei or Steve Pagliuca?"

Don't

Capuano Coakley Khazei Pagliuca Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 13% 57% 1% 7% 22% 535

Capuano voter 30% 44% 0% 5% 21% 120Coakley voter 8% 77% 0% 2% 13% 228Khazei voter 13% 68% 12% 0% 7% 32Pagliuca voter 12% 41% 0% 30% 17% 80Other/Undecided voter 4% 29% 0% 3% 65% 74

Registered Democrat 13% 56% 0% 6% 24% 335Registered Unaffiliated 13% 58% 1% 8% 20% 200

Definitely decided Vote 16% 70% 2% 4% 8% 137Leaning towards someone 11% 71% 1% 7% 10% 126Still trying to decide 13% 44% 0% 8% 35% 269

Fairly to Extremely Lib 11% 60% 1% 6% 23% 176Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 13% 59% 1% 8% 18% 180Moderate to Conservative 13% 53% 0% 6% 28% 153

Male 12% 63% 0% 9% 15% 212

Female 14% 53% 1% 6% 27% 323

35 or under 2% 45% 0% 25% 28% 3335 to 49 17% 54% 1% 4% 24% 13350 to 64 11% 64% 0% 5% 19% 21865 and over 14% 54% 1% 9% 23% 126

White 13% 57% 1% 7% 22% 475African American 9% 63% 0% 11% 17% 29Other 10% 50% 0% 4% 37% 24

High school or less 22% 38% 1% 12% 26% 72Some college 15% 51% 1% 11% 22% 104College graduate 11% 62% 0% 7% 20% 185Post-graduate 10% 63% 1% 2% 24% 174

Less than $30K 24% 43% 0% 6% 27% 47$30K to $60K 12% 47% 1% 16% 24% 73$60K to $75K 26% 48% 2% 7% 18% 40$75K to $100K 8% 66% 0% 7% 19% 65$100K or more 13% 65% 0% 6% 16% 147

Western MA 8% 51% 1% 10% 31% 72Central MA 9% 49% 2% 13% 27% 68Essex 14% 60% 1% 6% 19% 65Middlesex 18% 63% 0% 5% 14% 128

Norfolk/Suffolk 10% 64% 1% 6% 18% 111Southern/Cape 17% 47% 0% 5% 31% 92

Extremely interested 15% 59% 1% 6% 20% 157

Very interested 14% 57% 1% 7% 20% 230Somewhat interested 7% 56% 0% 9% 28% 140

Not very interested 48% 30% 0% 0% 23% 8

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 4% 64% 0% 13% 18% 17Voted once 17% 50% 1% 6% 26% 86Voted twice 13% 58% 1% 7% 22% 432


40/41

38

"Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who has had government experience from holding an elected office ... would yoube more likely to vote for a candidate who is a newcomer to politics and who could bring other kinds of experience to the job ... orwould that make little difference in your vote?"

Prefer Makes

Cand. Prefer Little Dont

w/Exper. Newcomer Difference Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 32% 21% 45% 2% 536





Male 28% 27% 42% 3% 212Female 34% 17% 48% 1% 324



High school or less 35% 20% 44% 2% 73Some college 28% 24% 46% 2% 105

College graduate 28% 27% 42% 3% 185Post-graduate 37% 13% 49% 1% 173








41/41

All things being equal, would you prefer to vote for a man or a woman for US Senator, or would that make little difference in yourvote?

Want to Want to Makes

Vote for Vote For No Dont

Man Woman Difference Know (N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY

VOTERS 1% 16% 82% 1% 537





Male 2% 10% 88% 0% 213Female 0% 20% 79% 1% 324




Post-graduate 1% 27% 72% 0% 174







Documents

Mass. special Democratic primary poll