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Jordan Center for Social ResearchAn Independent, Non-Profit Think Tank

Amman – Jordan

National Poll #2 of Jordanian Public National Poll #2 of Jordanian Public Opinion on:Opinion on:

Democratic Transformation and Political Democratic Transformation and Political Reform in JordanReform in Jordan

Dr. Musa Shteiwi

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ContentsContents

• Poll Objectives

• Poll Sample

• Poll Outcomes

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Poll ObjectivesPoll Objectives

• The most important challenges facing Jordanian society• Public perceptions of justice and procedural fairness• Levels of trust in national institutions• Levels of support for various electoral models• Public support for various political tendencies and electoral

quota systems• Attitudes on the urgency of political reform and the relative

importance of security vs. political reform; • Public support for passing an anti-terrorism law

JCSR and its partners produced their first national poll in September 2005. The main objective of this second poll is to examine Jordanian public opinion regarding issues related to the process of democratic

transformation and political reform in the wake of the hotel bombings in Amman, including the following issues:

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Poll SamplePoll Sample• The sample consisted of 1000 persons (50% males and

50% females) who are 18 years or older.

• The sampling methodology used was a random cluster sample which included 100 sites all over the Kingdom. The margin of error is ±2.5%.

• The frame of the 2004 census was used (courtesy of the Jordanian Department of Statistics.)

• The field work for the poll was conducted between the 10th and 14th of December 2005 by Middle East Marketing and Research Consultants.

• The poll was conducted with the support of the International Republican Institute (IRI).

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Summary of the Poll’s Most Summary of the Poll’s Most Important FindingsImportant Findings

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IN GENERAL, ARE THINGS IN JORDAN GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR THE WRONG DIRECTION?

48.3

44

6.9

0.8

70.6

23.8

5.20.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

September December

Things are going in the right direction Things are going in the wrong direction

Not sure/ do not know Refused to answer

7

27.4

18.3

5.9 5.12.3 1.5 1 1.1

3.7

30.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Rising cost of living Unemployment Poverty Deteriorating economic conditionsTerrorism Corruption Water scarcity Population Growth No Problems others

IN YOUR OPINION,WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING JORDAN TODAY? (OPEN ENDED)/ DECEMBER

8

38.2

26.6

10.1 9.6

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Rising cost of living UnemploymentWorsening economic conditions PovertyCorruption

IN YOUR OPINION,WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING JORDAN TODAY? (OPEN ENDED)/ September

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TAKING ALL THINGS INTO CONSIDERATION, WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POLTICAL PROBLEM FACING JORDAN TODAY?

(OPEN ENDED)/ December

29.1

11.5

3.11.4

3.1 2.1 1.5 2

17.8

26.6

1.1 0.50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Terrorism Instability of neighboring countries Opposition to Jordan’s policies Weak government performance Weak democratic practices The impact of weak economyCorruption Increased number of expatriates No problems Do not know Refused to answer Others

10

48.6

11.3 11.4 10.5

4.4 3.8 4.3 3.41.7

0.60

10

20

30

40

50

60

Corruption Weak party participationLack of freedom of expression Lack of personal freedomWeak loyalty Discrimination and inequalityLack of a free press Not sure/ don't knowGovernment interference in the parliament and judiciary Refused to answer

TAKING ALL THINGS INTO CONSIDERATION, WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POLTICAL PROBLEM FACING JORDAN TODAY?

(OPEN ENDED)/ SEPTMEBER

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THE BEST WAY TO GOVERN THE SOCIETY

69.6

63.867.3

71.1

80.2 8178.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

December SeptemberA government whose power is balanced by the parliament.Judges who apply the law whatever the government says.Newspapers free to criticize the government and enjoy freedom of expressionLocal authorities who are elected by the people

12

66.3

70.4

53.2

25

49

27.123.8

29.2

70.9

6.3 5.5

9.4

35.2

45.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

In court In a policeinvestigation

At the tax office In the hiringprocess

In a universityentrance

procedure

Likely Not Likely Not Sure

THINGS BEING AS THEY ARE AT PRESENT, IN WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS HAS ONE A GOOD CHANCE TO GET FAIR

AND JUST TREATMENT ?

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I WILL MENTION SEVERAL INSTITUTIONS/ORGANIZATIONS TO YOU. PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU FULLY TRUST THEM,

SOMEWHAT TRUST THEM, OR DO NOT TRUST THEM AT ALL.

98 97.690 89.8

78.6 78.475 73.8

1 2.16.7 8.8

14.9 18.111.4 12

31

54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

The Arm

y

Public

Sec

urity

The Gove

rnm

ent

The M

edia

Munic

ipal

ities

The Par

liam

ent

NGOs

Profe

ssio

nal U

nions

Politi

cal P

artie

s

Trust No Trust

14

96.1 96.2

84.7 86.180.4

75.3 77.4 79.5

54.2

2.9 3.1

13 12.416.8

6.7

35.9

17.515.2

0102030405060708090

100

Trust Not Trust

I WILL MENTION SEVERAL INSTITUTIONS/ORGANIZATIONS TO YOU. PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU FULLY TRUST THEM,

SOMEWHAT TRUST THEM, OR DO NOT TRUST THEM AT ALL.

15

93.3

56.4

97.7

43.5

5.1

37.4

1.3

61.6

1.35.7

0.7

24.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Prosecution of violentpolitical action

Prohibiting politicalactivities of the

opposition

Prosecuting peopleand groups workingagainst the national

interest

Censor and close thepress

Agree Disagree Not sure

A GOVERNMENT CAN USE DIFFERENT METHODS TO PROTECT ITS ABILITY TO GOVERN A COUNTRY. WHICH OF THE

FOLLOWING METHODS DO YOU AGREE OR DO NOT AGREE/ December

16

74.5

5.7

49.9

21.3

91.6

41.9

3.5 2.57.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Peaceful meetings andprotest?

Violent action Waiting for the nextgovernment to be appointed

appropriate Not appropriate Not sure

THINK OF A SITUATION IN WHICH MANY PEOPLE ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND WANT TO CHANGE IT. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU CONSIDER APPROPRIATE OR

NOT APPROPRIATE?/ December

17

73.9

16

44.5

20.6

80.7

47.8

4.9 2.86.8

0.6 0.6 0.80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Peaceful meetings and protest? Violent action? Waiting for the next government to beappointed?

appropriate Not appropriate Not sure Refused to answer

THINK OF A SITUATION IN WHICH MANY PEOPLE ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND WANT TO CHANGE IT. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING

DO YOU CONSIDER APPROPRIATE OR NOT APPROPRIATE?/ September

18

4% 48.4%

48%

Guaranteed Not Guranteed Not sure

TO WHAT DEGREE DO YOU THINK THAT THE FREEDOM TO CRITICIZE THE GOVERNMENT’S DECISIONS AND POLICIES IS GUARANTEED

IN JORDAN/ December

19

35.2

60.0

3.41.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

GUARANTEED NOT GUARANTEED NOT SURE REFUSED TO ANSWER

TO WHAT DEGREE DO YOU THINK THE FREEDOM OF Criticizing the government publicly IS GUARANTEED IN JORDAN/ September

20

0%

10% 43%

6%

16%

23%

1%1%

Jordanian Nationalist Political IslamistArab nationalist Socialist/leftistWill not vote on the basis of political ideology Will not participate in the electionsNot sure Refused to answer

IF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHICH POLITICAL TENDENCY WOULD YOU MOST LIKELY VOTE FOR?/ December

21

0.2%14%

27%

12%

10%

37%

Jordanian Nationalist IslamistsArab nationalist Will not vote on the bases of political ideologyNot Sure Refused to Answer

IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS FOR OUR PARLIAMENT, WHICH POLITICAL TENDENCY WOULD YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR?/

September

22

Please tell us whether you approve or disapprove of the following election methods?

68.6

52.6

45.5

42

27.1

40.5

45.1

50.7

2.8

5

7.4

5.8

The same law as in2003.

One seat for eachdistrict.

Mix of list anddistrict seats.

Party/electoral listsat the national

level.

Not Sure

Disapprove

Approve

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WHICH OF THE ABOVE METHODS DO YOU THINK IS MOST APPROPRIATE FOR JORDAN?

48.8

17.517

10.45.6 0.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

The same law as in 2003

Party/electoral lists at the nationallevel

One seat for each district

Mixture of list and district seats

Do not know

Refused to answer.

24

8%

0.4%

15.2%

17.4%59%

Keeping the law Changing the law Does not matter to me Not sure Refuse to answer

ARE YOU IN FAVOR OF KEEPING THE PARLIAMENT ELECTION LAW OF 2003 OR CHANGING IT?/ September

43.1% of those who would like to change the law prefer a multiple voting system

25

53.7

35.6

9.2

1.70

10

20

30

40

50

60

One vote, where the voter chooses either the district candidate or the list.Two votes, one for the district seat and one for the list.Not SureRefused to Answer

LET US SUPPOSE THAT THE MIXED ELECTION SYSTEM HAS BEEN SELECTED; DO YOU AGREE THAT THE VOTER SHOULD HAVE….

26

62.4

25.6

10.5

1.20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

The district candidate The national list Not sure/do not know Refused to answer

LET US SUPPOSE THAT VOTERS WERE GIVEN ONE VOTE ONLY, WHICH ONE WOULD YOU GIVE YOUR VOTE

TO?

27

THE JORDANIAN ELECTION LAW OF 2003 SET ASIDE A QUOTA OF SEATS FOR MEMBERS OF CERTAIN GROUPS. DO YOU AGREE, OR

DISAGREE WITH KEEPING THE QUOTA IN PARLIAMENT FOR:

75 72.969.9

82.3

23.5 23.7 26

15.6

1.5 2.9 3.5 1.60

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Women Christians Circassians Bedouin

Agree Disagree Not Sure

28

50%

14.6%

34.7

0.7%

Yes No Not Sure Refused to Answer

DO YOU SUPPORT THE DISSOLUTION OF THE CURRENT PARLIAMENT AND HOLDING EARLY PARLIAMENTARY

ELECTIONS?

29

0.2%5.1%4.3%

90.4%

Yes No Not Sure Refused to Answer

AFTER THE ATTACKS ON HOTELS IN AMMAN, THE GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING TO INTRODUCE AN ANTI-

TERRORISM LAW. DO YOU SUPPORT ENACTING SUCH A LAW?

30

75.7

11.26.5 6.3

0.30

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Continued as planned Slowed down. Not sureCompletely stopped Refused to answer

IN LIGHT OF THE ATTACKS ON HOTELS IN AMMAN, DO YOU THINK THAT CURRENT POLITICAL REFORM

EFFORTS WILL BE:

31

25.8%69.4%

0.1%

3.5%

1.2%

Both the stability of the country and political reform. Maintaining the stability of the country.Proceeding with the political reform. Not SureRefused to Answer

WHICH IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR YOU TODAY: TO MAINTAIN THE SECURITY AND STABILITY OF THE COUNTRY OR TO

PROCEED WITH POLITICAL REFORM, OR BOTH?