Market Performance and PlanningForum

October 26, 2011

Objective: Enable dialogue on implementation planning and market performance issues

• Review key market performance topics• Share updates to 2011-2012 release plans, resulting

from stakeholders inputs• Provide information on specific initiatives

– to support Market Participants in budget and resource planning

• Focus on implementation planning; not on policy• Clarify implementation timelines• Discuss external impacts of implementation plans• Launch joint implementation planning process

Slide 2

Agenda

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TIME TOPIC LEAD9:00 – 9:10 Introduction, Agenda Mercy Parker Helget

9:10 – 10:10 Market Analysis Mark Rothleder

10:10 – 10:40 Policy Update Eric Little

10:40 – 11:10 Distributed Energy Resources Visibility and Control Study Update

Heather Sanders

11:10 – 12:15 Technical Updates Khaled Abdul-Rahman & Li Zhou

12:15 – 1:00 LUNCH

1:00 – 1:30 RUG / TUG Updates Janet Morris, Kevin Colmer

1:30 – 2:00 OMS Phase 3 Requirements Gathering

Jami Herguth & Team

Market Performance and Quality Update

Mark Rothleder, Executive DirectorMarket Analysis & Development

Slide 4

Slide 5

1. Market Metrics

• Price volatility and market convergence

• RT energy imbalance offset

• Convergence bidding

• Exceptional Dispatch trends

• Bid cost recovery

2. Recent Market Events

3. Updates of Market Enhancements

4. Update of Renewable Integration Studies and Initiatives

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2010 2011

IFM HASP RTD

PG&E DLAP LMP Monthly Average (DA/HASP/RTD)

Page 6

Trend of improved price convergence continued in September

PG&E DLAP LMP Monthly Average (On Peak)

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2010 2011

IFM HASP RTD

Good On-Peak Convergence

PG&E DLAP LMP Monthly Average (Off Peak)

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2010 2011

IFM HASP RTD

Good Off-Peak ConvergenceObserved in September

Monthly Price Distributions: Observed reduced negative and positive price volatility in Aug and Sept.

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-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

JAN

FEB

MAR AP

R

MAY JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR AP

R

MAY JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

2010 2011

Perc

ent o

f Rea

l Tim

e In

terv

als

-$30 to -$5 -$100 to -$30 -$300 to -$100 < -300

$250 to < $500 $500 to < $750 $750 to $1000 > $1000

Monthly Average of RTD Intervals with Insufficient Up Ramping Capacity

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Steady in September

Monthly Average of RTD Intervals with Insufficient Down Ramping Capacity

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Uptick in September

HASP/RTD Price Differential: 30 day average price difference near $0.

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0.5

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2

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3.5

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10

3/2/2011 4/2/2011 5/2/2011 6/2/2011 7/2/2011 8/2/2011 9/2/2011 10/2/2011

Aver

age

Num

ber o

f Spi

ke/D

ay

Aver

ge H

ASP-

RT P

rice

Diffe

renc

e ($

/Mw

h)

30-Day Rolling Average

Average Difference in SMEC (RT-HASP) Average number of price spikes >$500

Daily Total Real-Time Imbalance Energy Offset (RTIEO) Continued to Stabilize in September (Based on LMP)

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-$5,000,000

$0

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$25,000,000

$30,000,000

3/2/2011 4/2/2011 5/2/2011 6/2/2011 7/2/2011 8/2/2011 9/2/2011

30-Day Rolling Cumulative Total Real Time Energy Offset

Virtual Contribution to RT Energy Offset Total Real-time Energy Offset

Balanced Convergence bids1/3 of RTIEO

Balanced convergence bidding volumes MW

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0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000

3/2/

2011

3/16

/201

1

3/30

/201

1

4/13

/201

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4/27

/201

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5/11

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5/25

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6/8/

2011

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10/1

2/20

11Volu

me

of B

alan

ced

Virt

ual (

MW

)

Date

30-Day Rolling Cumulative(Volume of balanced offsetting virtual intertie supply

and virtual internal demand)

SC Balanced Virtual Residual Balanced Virtual across SCs

Convergence bidding dual constraint impacts:Day-Ahead Intertie Overpayment and Shortages Due to Dual Intertie Constraint

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-$400,000

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$1,600,000

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Over Shortage

Exceptional Dispatches Average Remained low in August and September (in % of Total Dispatches).

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Elevated amount of EDs on 8th and 9th due to San Diego outage

Daily Exceptional Dispatches in MWh

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Elevated amount of EDs on 8th and 9th due to San Diego outage

Daily Exceptional Dispatches in MWh – by Reason

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Elevated amount of EDs on 8th and 9th due to San Diego outage

Bid Cost Recovery Costs Resumed Downward Trend in September.

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$0$2,000,000$4,000,000$6,000,000$8,000,000

$10,000,000$12,000,000$14,000,000$16,000,000$18,000,000$20,000,000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

2010 2011

Total Bid Cost Recovery ($)

MIP Gap performance improved September.

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-$10,000

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,0008/

15/2

009

9/4/

2009

9/24

/200

910

/14/

2009

11/3

/200

911

/23/

2009

12/1

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101/

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010

2/11

/201

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3/20

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23/2

010

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/201

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22/2

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/201

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107/

21/2

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8/10

/201

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30/2

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9/19

/201

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1011

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2010

12/8

/201

012

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2010

1/17

/201

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011

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/201

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7/16

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5/20

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011

9/14

/201

110

/4/2

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4/20

1111

/13/

2011

MIP

Gap

($)

Day

MIP Gap ($ difference)

Series1 30 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)

Slide 21

1. October 13 price corrections: Outage incorrectly modeled in real-time. Two/Three transformer banks were modeled as out when only

one of the four transformer banks was actually out. Invalid congestion occurred at a number of locations. Total of 92 RTD and HASP interval prices were corrected. Working to improve process/software to avoid similar

modeling errors.2. October 14 price corrections:

CAS sent incorrect import/export schedules in real-time created false large supply/demand imbalance.

Total of 9 RTD interval prices were corrected, 15 RTD intervals filled.

Recent Market Events

Slide 22

3. San Diego Gas Pipeline Outages Outages are going well. No reliability issue encountered. Convergence bidding suspended on the weekends during the gas

pipeline outages. May finish one week ahead of schedule.

4. September 19 and 21 Day-Ahead Market Congestion Congestion in DA on a closed interface in a small area. Low ratio of local load relative to the total DLAP level load. Large DLAP load change to effect a small local area load change. Constraint relaxation may result in pricing run vs. scheduling run

differences Leads to high MCC and potential DLAP convergence bids

awarded off bid curve.

Recent Market Events (cont.)

Slide 23

• Flexi-ramp nomogram – expected implementation in December.

• Group constraint implemented in October.

• Reduces exceptional dispatch related to pump operations

• More planned in 2012.

• Dynamic Transfer approved by FERC -

• Effective Date: November 1, 2011

• Intra-hour scheduling pilot started in October ~ 25MW

Updates and upcoming enhancements

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1. 33% Renewable Integration studies

• Scope next step of analysis – October 7 meeting• Incorporate LCR/OTC in studies – January 2012- March 2012

2. Annual resource adequacy evaluation

• 2011 resource adequacy assessment – November 20113. Frequency/Inertia Study

• Evaluate frequency response high renewable / low inertia • Complete, Report finalized by GE, publish end of September

4. Distributed Energy Resources

• Evaluate the visibility / controllability cost and benefits• Scheduled completion: December 31, 2011

Renewable integration related studies in progress at

Policy Updates

Eric Little, ManagerMarket Design & Regulatory Policy

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Market initiatives going to the Board for approval in 2011

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Initiative Board PresentationMulti-Stage Generating unit modeling enhancements

October 2011

Renewable Integration Market &Product Review Phase 2 – Vision and Roadmap

October 2011 (briefing only)

Renewable Integration Market & Product Review Phase 1

December 2011

Review and update of the Operations & Maintenance cost adder

December 2011

Overview of current market design initiatives

• Multi Stage Generator Unit Modeling Enhancements – Increase number of configurations for MSG in RT– Required to bid from Minimum Operating Capacity to

RA capacity or Highest bid-in capacity• If not bid, ISO will insert cost-based bids

– Increase in the number of ramp rates per configuration

– Ability to schedule and MSG unit in RT into a configuration different that that scheduled DA

– Changes to BCR when transitioning between configurations

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Overview of current market design initiatives(continued)

• RIMPR Phase 2– Elements split into:

• Short-term (now – 2013)– Regulation Energy Management, Flexible Ramping Constraint, Bid

Cost Recovery, 72-Hour RUC, Start-up and Shut-down profiles, Dynamic Transfers, Energy bid floor, PIRP Modifications, VER Forecasting, Enhanced Operating Reserves Management

• Mid (2013 – 2015)– Flexi-Ramp Product, Intertie Pricing and Settlement, Flexible Capacity

Forward Procurement, PIRP Resource Decremental Bidding, Pay for Performance Regulation

• Long-term (2015 – 2020)– Frequency/Inertia Response, Real-time Settlement (15 minute market),

Evaluate need for RTIS

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Overview of current market design initiatives(continued)

• RIMPR Phase 1: 5th revised straw proposal:– Lower the energy bid floor– Make changes to PIRP cost allocation– Remove DA, RT netting, add performance metric

• Review and update of default O&M cost adders– Update of costs– More granularity added

• Moved from 2 to 10 resource types

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Market design initiatives coming soon

• Market design catalog update• Standard Capacity Product Phase III

– FERC order to apply SCP to all RA resources• Phase III will evaluate SCP for DR

• Marginal Loss Surplus Allocation– Targeted to start in the 4th quarter of 2011

• Post-emergency BCR filing review– Targeted to start in October, 2011

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Distributed Energy Resources Visibility and Control Study Update

Heather Sanders, DirectorSmart Grid Technologies and Strategy

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Briefing Overview

• Project Overview• Approach• Expected Deliverables• High-Level Timeline• Summary

Background

• Increased adoption of Distributed Energy Resources will have impacts and benefits on the ISO and IOUs

• ISO/IOUs have limited ability to monitor, exchange information with, and control Distributed Energy Resources – this has an impact on their reliability functions

• A review of current interconnection requirements and configurations is needed to assess adequacy of reliability monitoring, functions, processes and control systems

• A cost / benefit comparison of additional visibility and control options is needed

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Project Overview

Develop Forecasts and Impacts…Identify baseline and penetration forecasts of Distributed Energy Resources on the ISO’s system by 2020, including:• Solar Photovoltaics• Energy Storage• Dispatchable Demand and Price Response• Combined Heat and Power (CHP)• Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV)

Create a Framework to Assess…• ISO current visibility of these Distributed Energy Resources• ISO current control of these Distributed Energy Resources• Future resource and technology developments

Implications…• Assess reliability and market cost impacts, given Distributed

Energy Resource forecasts• Identify potential enabling technology improvements to current

visibility and control requirements

Objectives

• Do the current levels of visibility and control allow the ISO to manage the forecasted growth?

• How would additional visibility enhance the ISO’s ability to forecast and manage the system and markets?

• What are the costs and expected benefits to increased visibility and control?

• What are the technical requirements for monitoring and control to achieve market and operational benefits?

Overall project objective – To quantify operational, market, and implementation impacts of Distributed Energy Resource integration by answering these questions:

Approach

Benefit / Cost

Analysis

Phase 1 Model

Phase 2 Simulate

Phase 3 Tech

Road Map

Deliverables

Phase 1 -Model

• Monitoring and control technologies

• Current visibility and control requirements

• Baselines penetration forecasts

• Variability data• Impact of improved

visibility on forecasting error

• Technical feasibility and impact of variability management schemes

Phase 2 -Simulate

• Simulation results for base cases and additional scenarios

• Market impact analysis for baseline penetration and additional selected scenarios with varying visibility and control

Phase 3 –Technology Road Map

• Technology road map –identify most cost effective technologies for each visibility and control scenario

• Benefit/Cost Analysis

All deliverables pertain to Distributed Energy Resources

High-level Timeline

Phase 1 - Model

• Penetration scenarios• Late October

2011

• Variability characteristics for penetration scenarios• Late October

2011

Phase 2 -Simulate

• Simulation results for selected scenarios• Mid to late

November 2011

Phase 3 –Technology Road Map

• Technology road maps for studied scenarios• Mid to late

December 2011

• Benefit/Cost Analysis• Late December

2011, Early January 2012

• Final Report• January/February

2012

Summary

• This study should give the ISO and stakeholders an increased understanding of Distributed Energy Resources impacts and benefits

• The cost / benefit comparison of additional visibility and control options will inform ongoing ISO and other stakeholder policy activities

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Technical Updates

Khaled Abdul-Rahman, DirectorLi Zhou, Senior AdvisorPower Systems Technology Development

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Technical Updates

Flexible RampingMarket Systems, CMRI and SaMC: All in testCMRI/OASIS/SaMC: External specifications published

NRS-RAA gap has been identified in testing for case when there is a self schedule not meeting the RA. It should use the “generated bid” to fill in the gap between the self schedule and RA capacity. But current rule does not do that. New SIBR rule set will be published this week. No impact to Market Participants.

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Technical Updates

MSG Enhancements (Phase 1)IFM/RTM in test

Changes in DAM and RTM for:• Terminal condition logic for MSG configurations• Ramp-rate segment limit for MSG configurations• Ability to self-schedule into Real-Time for different

configurations that have Day-Ahead energy or Ancillary Service awards

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Technical Updates

Example with MSG Terminal Condition

A MSG resource has the ability to transition between Configuration1 (C1) and Configuration2 (C2).Assume that C1 (minimum up time = 6) can transition to C2 (Minimum down time is 4 hours). In DA we commit them in C2 in HE 7. The terminal condition is to say that, in RTPD,

assuming we put this unit in C2 (HE 1), we cannot Transition to C1 within HE2 to HE6 (because we would have to maintain that Minimum up time and in this example would not make it to C2 by HE 7).

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Technical Updates

NGR/REMMarket Participants: Continue to sign up for participation in market simulation scheduled for Spring 2012. Six physical

resources. Nine pseudo resources.

Market Participant Inputs: We have made some adjustments based on MP’s inputs.

New Functional Updates: SLIC will allow for the de-rate of minimum charging andmaximum charging limits;

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Technical UpdatesNew Functional Updates: State of Charge will be calculated based on prior day’s IFM results, not submitted by MPs;Energy Curtailment Limit will be enforced in IFM as well as in RTM for demand response resources;Direct Telemetry and Metering requirement will be enforced for both LESR and DDR.Update of external BRS will follow.

CAISO Status: The main challenge and focus is the logic to recognize the continuous energy limit in both market applications and settlement.

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Technical Updates

LMPM Enhancements

OASIS Publication for market transparency (IFM/HASP)1. Interval based competitive and non competitive LMPs

including components with associated reference bus;2. AC run binding constraints with their shadow prices;3. Competitive and non competitive path designations.

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Release Plan Update

Janet Morris, DirectorProgram Office

Slide 48

Release Plan - 2011• Fall 2011 release – http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/ReleasePlanning/Default.aspx

– RDRP (DRS deployment on 11/1)– FERC Order 741 Credit Reform / Settlements Timeline Improvements - deployed– Convergence Bidding limit changes - deployed– Dynamic Transfer – interim solution (deployed; to be activated 11/1/11)– Grouping Constraints - deployed– SIBR Interface Specification for Bidding Services - deployed

• October monthly release – OMS Phase 2 - deployed

• Seasonal rating change- 11/1/11• Daylight Savings Time Change – 11/06/11• Removal of Convergence Bidding on the Interties – 11/29• December monthly release – 12/13/11

– Generation of bids for NRS-RA– GMC rate structure change– Flexible Ramping– MSG Enhancements Phase 1– Contingency Flag enhancement (OASIS 6.0.4)

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Release Plan - 2012

• February 2012 monthly release– Enhanced Operating Reserve Management

• Spring 2012 release– Non-Generator Resources / Regulation Energy Management - Phase 1– LMPM Enhancements – MSG Enhancements Phase 2– Revisions to Default O&M Adder Values

• Fall 2012 Release– Non-Generator Resources / Regulation Energy Management - Phase 2– Data Release Phase 3– Enterprise Model Management (tentative)– Outage Management System (tentative)

Note: 72 Hour RUC schedule to be determined

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Fall 2011 Release - Reliability Demand Response Product (RDRP) FERC Order

• FERC opened a comment period for the ISO’s response to the Commission’s deficiency filing (Docket # ER11-3616-001)

• No Demand Response Agreements (and thus RDRR registrations) may be accepted by the ISO until FERC approval is received

• The ISO expects a FERC order on or about November 20th

• It is possible the FERC order could require software revisions, which may in turn impact the schedule up to an including the April 1, 2012 implementation

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Fall 2011 Release - Reliability Demand Response Product (RDRP) Release MilestonesMilestone DatePublish business requirementshttp://www.caiso.com/2b51/2b519218728d0.pdf

March 29

Publish draft BPM June 30Technical specificationshttp://www.caiso.com/27ab/27ab6e875c2e0.html

June 30

Implementation Planhttp://www.caiso.com/Documents/ReliabilityDemandResponseProductImplementationPlan.pdf

July 22

Market Simulation Plan http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Fall2011Release_OctoberMonthlyReleaseMarketSimulationPlan.pdf

July 29

Market Simulation(Registration & Settlement simulation delayed & expanded due to environment issues. Additional details in Market Sim meeting)

Aug 23 – Sept 9 (Bidding)Oct 17-21 (Settlement) Rescheduled

Production Deployment October 10 (Bidding)November 1 (DRS)

Production Activation April 1, 2012 On TrackPage 52

December Monthly Release - Generation of Bids for NRS-RA

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Milestone Date StatusFrequently Asked Questions http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/StakeholderProcesses/GeneratedBidsOutageReporting-ResourceSpecificRAResources.aspx

Oct 13, 2011

RA Template Availabilityhttp://www.caiso.com/Documents/December%202011%20release%7CPlan%20templates/ProposedISOSupplyPlanTemplate.xls

http://www.caiso.com/Documents/December%202011%20release%7CPlan%20templates/ProposedISOResourceAdequacyPlanTemplate.xls

Sep 9, 2011

Technical specificationsSIBR Ruleshttp://www.caiso.com/Documents/December%202011%20release/ReleaseNotes-SchedulingInfrastructureBusinessRulesBusinessRulesforBidding-Version4.7.2_DecemberRelease.pdfMaster Filehttp://www.caiso.com/Documents/December%202011%20release/TechnicalInterfaceSpecificationforMasterFileDataExchangeServices.pdf

SIBR Rules – Aug 25, 2011

Master File – Aug 19, 2011

BPM change management submittal dates:Reliability Requirements: PR0487Settlements: PR0484Market Instruments: PR0486

Reliability Requirements - Sep 26 2011Settlements – Sep 12, 2011Market Instruments - Sept 21, 2011

IRR User GuideConfiguration guides Oct 27, 2011 On Track

Market Participant - NRS-RA Web Training Conference Oct 27, 2011 On Track

Market simulation Nov 8 - 14 On Track

Production deployment

IRR UI avail Nov 21, 2011 to load Jan 2012 monthly RA data Full deployment on Dec 13, 2011 Effective date is Jan 1, 2012

On Track

December Monthly Release - GMC Rate Structure

Milestone Date

Application Software Changes • Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR)• Settlements

BPM Changes • Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR)• Settlements & Billing• Definitions & Acronyms

Board Approval May 2011

Configuration Guides September 26

FERC ruling September 30

Training Session - WebEx October 19 On Track

Statement Publication(3 daily statements +1 monthly statement +1 invoice)

Nov 8 – Nov 14 On Track

Production Activation January 1, 2012 On Track

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December Monthly Release – Flexible Ramping

Milestone Date

Application Software Changes • DAM/RTM• CMRI• OASIS• Settlements

BPM Changes • Settlements & Billing• Market Operations, Market Instruments

Business Process Changes • Manage Billing & Settlements• Manage Real Time Market

Board Approval August 2011

Configuration Guides September 26, 2011

Technical Specifications September 26, 2011

Market Simulation Nov 8, 2011 – Nov 18, 2011 On Track

Production Activation December 13, 2011 On Track

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December Monthly Release – MSG Enhancements (Phase 1)

Milestone DateApplication Software Changes Master File

Changes in DAM and RTM for:• Terminal condition logic for MSG configurations• Ramp-rate segment limit for MSG configurations• Ability to self-schedule into Real-Time for different configurations that have Day-Ahead energy or Ancillary Service awards

BPM Changes • Market OperationsBusiness Process Changes • TBD

Board Approval October 2011

Configuration Guides N/A

Technical Specifications N/A

Market Simulation Nov 8, 2011 – Nov 23, 2011

Production Deployment December 13, 2011

Production Activation Upon FERC order

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December Monthly Release – OASIS Contingency Flag

Milestone Date

Application Software Changes • DAM/RTM• CMRI• OASIS• Settlements

BPM Changes •Market Instruments

Technical Specifications http://www.caiso.com/Documents/InterfaceSpecification_OASIS

3-08_Clean.pdf

October 7, 2011

Release Notes http://www.caiso.com/Documents/OASIS6-0-4ReleaseNotes.pdf

October 7, 2011

Market Simulation Nov 8, 2011 – Nov 18, 2011 On Track

Production Activation December 13, 2011 On Track

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Milestone DateApplication Software Changes Phase I & II Phase III

DAM/HASP RTMMaster File (MF) CMRIOASIS OASIS

BPM Changes Market OperationsMarket InstrumentsSettlements & BillingDefinitions & Acronyms

Board Approval July 14, 2011

Tariff Filing October 2011

External Business Requirements Specifications November 15, 2011

BPM PRR December 5, 2011

Technical Specifications December 19, 2011

Market Simulation Starts February 6, 2012

Production Activation Phase I, April 10, 2012 Phase II, May 2012Phase III, Q4 2012

Spring 2012 Release – LMPM Enhancements

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Milestone DateApplication Software Changes SIBR

DAM/RTM SettlementsMaster File (MF) RIMSOASIS SLIC

BPM Changes

PRR submittal

Manage Full Network ModelMarket OperationsMarket InstrumentsOutage ManagementReliability RequirementsSettlements & BillingCompliance Monitoring December 5, 2011

External Business Requirements Specifications& FAQ

Posted; to be revised October 26, 2011

Tariff Filing August 22, 2011

Technical Specifications December 19, 2011

Market Simulation February 2012

Production Activation Spring 2012 (Phase 1)Fall 2012 (Phase 2)

Spring 2012 Release – NGR/REM

Page 59

Technical Users Group Update

Kevin Colmer, ManagerIT Architecture

Page 60

Technical Users GroupTopics Discussed since last update

• Web Service Versioning– Proposed methodology and policy tabled for review

Page 61

Future topics

• Endpoint consolidation

• ECN Strategy

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Outage Management System Phase 3

Jami Herguth, DirectorBusiness Solutions and Quality

Page 63

Outage Management System Phase 3 - Requirements

Page 64

Milestone Date

External User Checkpoint 1 September 14 Completed

External User Checkpoint 2 November 15 On Track

Requirements Walkthrough December 13 On Track

Use Cases Walkthrough January 18 On Track

Stakeholder Participation

Posted Market Notice October 19 Notifying users that we have posted market participant scope requests and are

soliciting comments. Scope Requests are posted to

http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/StakeholderProcesses/OutageManagementSystemProject.aspx

Comments are due October 31. Participants can submit comments to OMSReq@caiso.com

ISO Executive sign-off on Phase 3 scope by early November

Planning an external Business Requirements Specification walk-through in mid-December

Subsequent reviews of user interface prototypes, sequence diagrams for B2B integration and use cases

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