Market Outlook, 04.03.13

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Market OutlookMarch 4, 2013

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian market is expected to open in the red today mirroring negative opening

trades in the SGX Nifty and mixed opening in the Asian markets.

After recovering from an early move, US markets slid on Friday. They then sawmodest strength for much of the remainder of the trading session. The strength on

the day came as upbeat economic data overshadowed concerns about the impact

of automatic government spending cuts. The major averages moved roughly

sideways going into the close, hovering in positive territory. The European markets

ended Friday's session with mixed results. A number of weaker-than-expected

economic reports weighed on investor sentiments at the end of the trading week.

Manufacturing data from China and the UK were disappointing, while

unemployment in the Eurozone climbed to a record high. The markets managed to

recover some ground in the afternoon, following some better-than-expected

economic reports in the US, including the stronger-than-expected ISM

manufacturing data.

Meanwhile, Indian shares rose on Friday, rebounding from three-month lows after

the finance ministry clarified it would not question the validity of tax residency

certificates held by foreign investors. India's indexes, however, ended lower for a

fifth consecutive week after the budget on Thursday disappointed investors by

financing increased revenues in part by raising taxes on some companies and

high-earners.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,909 / 5,713 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 18,998 19,077 / 5,746 5,773 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

18,909 / 5,713 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

18,830 18,741 / 5,687 5,653 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 18,741 18,830 18,909 18,998 19,077

NIFTY 5,653 5,687 5,713 5,746 5,773

News Analysis Quick clarification on TRC issue to soothe investor sentiments Auto sales numbers February 2013 SKNL plans to raise `600cr by selling Reid & Taylor sharesRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (February 28, 2013)

` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 7,182 8,456 (1,275) 22,122 44,352

MFs 1,669 1,199 470 (848) (5,561)

FII Derivatives (March 01, 2013)

` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,707 1,970 (263) 8,662

Stock Futures 2,254 1,683 570 23,705

Gainers / Losers

Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Core Projects 65 18.8 NHPC 24 (10.6)

Suzlon Energy 19 18.1 DLF 260 (6.3)

Sun TV Network 438 6.0 REC 214 (6.2)

Gujarat Fluo 295 6.0 Astrazeneca Phar 898 (5.5)

Opto Circuits 53 5.8 MMTC 407 (5.5)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 0.3 57.0 18,919

Nifty 0.5 26.6 5,720

MID CAP 0.3 18.2 6,321

SMALL CAP (0.2) (10.9) 6,195

BSE HC 0.1 8.8 7,819

BSE PSU 0.1 3.6 6,866

BANKEX 0.3 38.0 13,242

AUTO 1.5 157.0 10,616

METAL 0.6 56.8 9,125

OIL & GAS (0.0) (3.5) 8,645

BSE IT 0.1 8.7 6,763

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 0.3 35.2 14,090NASDAQ 0.3 9.6 3,170

FTSE 0.3 17.8 6,379

Nikkei 0.4 47.0 11,606

Hang Seng (0.6) (140.1) 22,880

Straits Times (0.0) (0.5) 3,270

Shanghai Com (0.3) (6.1) 2,360

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY 0.1 0.0 $54.0

WIT 0.5 0.0 $9.7IBN (0.3) (0.1) $41.8

HDB 0.3 0.1 $38.2

Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,336 687

Declines 1,522 819

Unchanged 112 78

Volumes (` cr)BSE 2,045

NSE 12,135

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Quick clarification on TRC issue to soothe investor sentiments

Markets reacted negatively post the budget on account of confusion regarding

amendment to the requirements for claiming the benefit of DTAA (double taxation

avoidance agreement). But the finance ministry was quick to clear the confusion

regarding its statement on furnishing of TRC (tax residency certificate) being anecessary but not sufficient condition to qualify for the benefits. It elucidated that

the validity of TRCs held by foreign investors will not be questioned and accepted

as evidence of residence while concerns over DTAA will be addressed suitably in

the Finance Bill.

We believe that the government is unlikely to fray nerves of foreign investors since

capital inflows are of utmost importance to finance the widening current account

deficit. In fact, the Finance Minister in his budget speech admitted that the current

account deficit is more worrying than the fiscal deficit and the economy needs to

find over USD 75bn to finance the CAD in this as well as the coming year too.

Auto sales numbers February 2013

Ashok LeylandAshok Leyland (AL) reported slightly lower-than-expected volumes led by continued

weakness in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment, which

declined by 26% yoy (up 2.6% mom) to 7,045 units. Consequently, total volumes

declined 9.5% yoy (4.9% mom) to 10,046 units. Dost volumes, however,

maintained its steady performance and recorded sales of 3,001 units.

Tata Motors

Tata Motors (TTMT) reported in-line volumes for February 2013 with total volumes

registering a decline of 32.7% yoy to 61,998 units led by 33.1% and 26.2% yoy

decline in domestic and export volumes respectively. The domestic performance

was severely impacted on account of deteriorating sales performance in the MHCV

and passenger vehicle segments which witnessed a significant decline of 45% and

69.5% yoy respectively. The light commercial vehicle sales however, maintained its

momentum posting a strong growth of 13% yoy.

Mahindra and Mahindra

Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) reported an in-line volume growth of 7.3% yoy

(down 6.4% mom) in February 2013 as the farm equipment segment continued to

post decline in sales. However, the automotive segment registered a healthy

growth of 11% yoy (down 3.4% mom) driven by continued traction in the

passenger vehicle segment (up 13.8% yoy) on the back of the new launches

XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton. The three-wheeler segment however registered a

sluggish growth with volumes declining by 6% yoy (17.3% mom). The export

volumes staged a recovery during the month and posted a strong 30.4% yoy

growth (106.1% mom) to 3,425 units. In the farm-equipment segment, MM

posted a decline of 3% yoy led by weakness in domestic markets, which posted a

decline of 3% yoy during the month.

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Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported in-line volumes for February 2013, primarily driven

by growth in the Super Compact (up 21.6% yoy and 7.4% mom) and Utility Vehicle

segments led by Dzire and Ertiga respectively. Total volumes for the month

registered a decline of 7.9% yoy (4.1% mom) to 109,567 units largely due to theslowdown in the demand for entry levels cars and vans. As a result, the Mini and

Vans segments witnessed a steep decline of 15.9% yoy (11.1% mom) and 38.9%

yoy (2.9% mom) respectively. The Compact segment too registered a decline of

13.9% yoy during the month. Export volumes on the other hand registered a

modest growth of 2.8% yoy (3.9% mom) as demand in key export markets

continues to remain weak. We believe that MSIL will miss out on its volume growth

guidance of 5.5-6% for FY2013; though by a small amount. MSIL has registered a

total volume growth of 4.3% YTD in FY2013.

Hero MotoCorp

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) registered lower-than-expected performance in February

2013 with total sales posting a decline of 4.2% yoy (10.1% mom) to 501,271 units

led by slowdown in the industry volumes. Meanwhile, the workers at the companys

Gurgaon plant have resorted to indefinite hunger strike as announced earlier to

pressurize the management to reach a wage settlement. This is following an

inconclusive meeting with the management on February 22, 2013. However, as

per the reports, the production at the plant has not been impacted.

TVS Motor

TVS Motor (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected volumes in February 2013 with

total volumes posting a decline of 3.7% yoy (5.8% mom) to 165,696 units. Theweakness was primarily on account of slowdown in two-wheeler volumes (down

4.8% yoy) led by motorcycle and scooter sales which registered a decline of 3.2%

and 16.6% yoy during the month. The three-wheeler sales however, maintained its

momentum and posted an impressive growth of 56.6% yoy.

SKNL plans to raise `600cr by selling Reid & Taylor shares

According to the media news, S. Kumars Nationwide (SKNL) plans to raise

~`600cr by selling shares of subsidiary, Reid & Taylor (R&T), through a QIP. The

money raised will be used to pay off the companys debt. SKNL had planned to listits Reid and Taylor business in 2010, however, due to the unfavorable market

conditions, the listing didnt happen. As per the article, the promoters have

dropped the IPO plans as of now as the market conditions has not improved

substantially yet; and, in addition, the performance of SKNLs stock isnt well either

in the market. We currently have a Neutral view on the stock.

Economic and Political News

Government says FY2014 gross borrowing at `5.79 lakh cr Diesel price for bulk consumers up by`1/litre Budget poses fertiliser spending crunch in FY2014 Digitisation Phase II: Over 55% target achieved SIAM wants roll-back of extra tax on SUVs

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Corporate News

HDFC Bank raises USD 500mn in overseas bond sale at 3% coupon ONGC plans capex of `35,050cr for next fiscal Tata Comm transfers data center biz to subsidiary NTPC plans `20,200cr capex for FY2014 UltraTech shuts Awarpur plant as workers go on strikeSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

March 5, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Feb F 54.10 54.10

March 6, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 4Q P (0.60) (0.60)

March 7, 2013 7:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Mar 2 344.00 355.00

5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Mar 7 0.50 0.50

6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Mar 7 0.75 0.75

March 8, 2013 5:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Feb 25.00 7.60

7:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Feb 157.00 151.00

7:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Feb 7.90 7.90

March 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Feb 2.00 3.00

11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Feb 10.30 10.30

March 11, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Feb 6.10 --

4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Feb 0.80 --

March 12, 2013 3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jan (1.70) --

March 14, 2013 6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Feb 0.20 --

12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Feb 6.62 --

March 15, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Feb 2.00 --

6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Feb -- --

6:45PM US Industrial Production % Feb (0.10) --

March 19, 2013 6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Feb 890.00 --

6:00PM US Building permits Thousands Feb 904.00 --

3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Feb 2.70 --

11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Mar 19 7.75 --

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Mar 19 4.00 --

11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Mar 19 6.75 --March 20, 2013 8:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Mar A (23.60) --

3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Feb (12.50) --

10:00PM US FOMC rate decision % Mar 20 0.25 --

March 21, 2013 7:30PM US Existing home sales Millions Feb 4.92 --

March 26, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Mar 69.60 --

7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Feb 437.00 --

March 27, 2013 3:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q F 0.30 --

March 28, 2013 2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Mar (3.00) --

6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 4Q T 0.10 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

March 04, 2013

Market Outlook

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Macro watch

Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

5.7

9.0

7.5

11.2

8.5

7.68.2

9.2

7.5

6.56.0

5.3 5.5 5.34.5

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)

1.0

4.3

2.5 2.0

8.3

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

(%)

7.6 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.58.0 8.1

7.3 7.2 7.26.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Feb

-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

Ma-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

No-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(30.0)

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

30.0

Feb

-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

7.75

6.75

4.00

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

7.50

8.50

9.50

Mar-12

Apr-12

Ma-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 113 - 2,205 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 16.2 14.0 3.4 2.9 22.6 22.5 1.6 1.4

United Phosphorus Buy 116 170 5,125 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 7.7 6.8 1.1 1.0 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 271 323 4,632 2,983 3,477 16.1 16.1 18.5 21.6 14.7 12.6 4.2 3.2 32.9 29.1 1.5 1.3

Apollo Tyres Buy 83 97 4,181 13,066 14,503 11.5 11.8 13.0 14.5 6.4 5.7 1.2 1.0 21.0 19.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 22 28 5,907 12,910 14,836 8.8 9.6 1.5 2.2 15.0 10.0 2.0 1.8 9.3 13.4 0.5 0.5

Automotive Axle# Neutral 329 - 497 934 1,103 10.2 10.7 24.5 34.3 13.4 9.6 1.7 1.5 13.2 16.9 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,972 - 57,052 20,775 23,889 18.5 19.0 107.6 126.4 18.3 15.6 7.6 6.0 45.8 42.8 2.4 2.0

Bharat Forge Accumulate 214 242 4,976 5,973 6,707 14.4 15.2 13.4 18.6 16.0 11.5 2.1 1.8 13.6 16.9 1.0 0.8

Bosch India* Accumulate 8,771 9,570 27,540 9,973 11,320 17.8 18.0 396.2 455.7 22.1 19.3 4.2 3.5 18.8 18.2 2.4 2.0

CEAT Buy 92 163 314 4,822 5,403 8.2 8.3 29.8 40.8 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.4 14.5 17.0 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Neutral 125 - 10,612 6,016 7,026 12.7 14.4 5.8 7.8 21.4 15.9 3.1 2.7 15.4 18.2 1.5 1.2

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,522 - 2,529 1,619 1,879 16.0 16.6 108.6 130.7 14.0 11.6 2.4 2.1 18.8 19.1 1.3 1.1

Hero Motocorp Buy 1,668 1,923 33,304 23,990 27,038 13.8 14.6 105.8 120.2 15.8 13.9 6.4 5.1 44.3 41.0 1.1 0.9

JK Tyre Buy 104 165 426 7,169 7,929 6.9 7.1 40.4 41.3 2.6 2.5 0.5 0.4 20.5 18.0 0.4 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 871 1,019 53,481 40,060 46,301 11.5 11.7 55.3 64.3 15.8 13.6 3.6 3.0 24.5 23.8 1.1 0.9

Maruti Buy 1,357 1,563 39,195 43,381 52,411 7.5 8.9 65.6 97.7 20.7 13.9 2.3 2.0 11.8 15.6 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Accumulate 196 209 11,534 25,769 29,010 7.1 7.5 10.2 13.1 19.3 15.0 4.9 3.8 28.1 28.3 0.6 0.5

Subros Buy 25 35 152 1,296 1,476 9.8 9.9 3.4 5.0 7.5 5.0 0.5 0.5 7.2 10.2 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Accumulate 287 326 76,607 184,201 209,642 12.4 13.5 28.0 36.3 10.3 7.9 2.3 1.8 24.6 25.4 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 39 47 1,834 7,019 7,827 6.0 6.3 4.3 5.3 9.1 7.3 1.4 1.2 16.4 18.0 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Reduce 571 487 12,097 8,073 9,052 5.5 7.2 11.3 17.4 50.7 32.8 4.4 4.0 8.9 12.8 1.5 1.3BGR Energy Neutral 209 - 1,507 3,412 4,104 13.0 11.6 24.6 26.2 8.5 8.0 1.2 1.1 30.7 25.7 0.8 0.7

BHEL Neutral 201 - 49,246 47,801 43,757 18.0 17.1 24.1 20.8 8.4 9.7 2.5 2.1 32.9 23.6 0.9 1.0

Blue Star Buy 171 238 1,540 2,748 2,896 4.4 5.6 6.8 9.3 25.2 18.4 3.5 3.0 14.5 17.6 0.7 0.6

Crompton Greaves Buy 91 129 5,822 12,136 13,790 3.8 6.3 3.3 6.9 27.5 13.2 1.6 1.5 5.8 11.5 0.5 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 33 49 267 2,802 3,074 9.5 9.8 7.7 10.9 4.2 3.0 0.4 0.3 9.6 12.1 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 51 75 1,302 6,909 7,723 6.2 7.2 5.4 8.4 9.4 6.0 1.1 1.0 17.0 22.8 0.3 0.3

LMW Neutral 1,989 - 2,241 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 13.9 12.0 2.3 2.1 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.3

Thermax Neutral 581 - 6,927 5,529 5,798 9.0 9.6 27.1 30.3 21.4 19.2 3.7 3.3 18.6 18.2 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

March 04, 2013

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Cement

ACC Neutral 1,271 - 23,864 11,358 12,366 19.9 19.6 75.1 74.9 16.9 17.0 3.2 2.9 19.4 18.1 1.8 1.7

Ambuja Cements Neutral 192 - 29,587 9,730 11,221 25.6 25.0 10.2 11.3 18.8 16.9 3.4 3.1 18.7 19.0 2.6 2.2

India Cements Neutral 84 - 2,591 4,439 4,789 16.7 17.2 6.8 9.1 12.4 9.3 0.7 0.7 6.0 7.7 1.0 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements Accumulate 131 143 1,607 2,119 2,478 22.9 22.3 20.3 22.8 6.5 5.8 1.1 1.0 18.0 17.7 0.9 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 243 - 5,777 3,960 4,270 27.4 27.0 18.6 21.1 13.1 11.5 2.4 2.0 19.7 18.9 2.1 1.8

Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,358 - 15,180 5,678 6,251 29.0 28.6 288.1 334.0 15.1 13.1 4.2 3.3 31.7 28.4 2.1 1.7

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,870 - 51,274 20,466 23,017 23.3 24.3 100.0 117.1 18.7 16.0 3.4 2.9 19.6 19.5 2.5 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 205 268 1,078 20,466 23,017 22.5 22.5 24.4 27.0 8.4 7.6 1.0 0.9 12.3 12.1 0.2 0.2

Consolidated Co Neutral 11 - 212 2,262 2,522 5.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 12.5 7.4 0.3 0.3 2.7 4.6 0.4 0.4

IRB Infra Buy 115 164 3,809 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 6.8 6.4 1.2 1.0 18.3 17.0 3.1 3.4

ITNL Buy 190 225 3,696 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.3 6.6 1.2 1.0 17.0 16.3 2.7 2.7

IVRCL Infra Buy 26 35 789 3,773 6,706 6.9 8.4 (3.9) 2.9 (6.6) 8.9 0.4 0.4 (5.4) 4.1 0.9 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 70 97 15,456 14,243 16,382 26.2 26.1 3.2 4.3 21.7 16.1 1.2 1.1 5.4 7.0 2.5 2.3

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,366 1,788 84,049 60,666 69,525 10.6 11.2 71.9 85.0 19.0 16.1 3.0 2.6 14.5 15.2 1.6 1.4

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 38 44 962 5,863 6,576 8.1 8.2 3.1 4.1 12.2 9.2 0.4 0.4 3.2 4.2 0.6 0.5

Punj Lloyd Neutral 41 - 1,350 11,892 13,116 10.2 10.2 (0.4) 3.0 (95.4) 13.7 0.5 0.5 3.8 0.5 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 108 157 1,632 1,642 2,642 9.7 10.1 3.2 7.2 33.7 15.0 1.9 1.7 6.0 12.1 1.2 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 152 197 752 6,026 7,135 9.1 9.3 14.1 24.6 10.8 6.2 0.6 0.6 5.6 9.2 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Buy 31 58 228 2,180 2,455 13.7 13.4 12.9 14.8 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.2 12.1 12.5 0.5 0.5

Financials

Allahabad Bank Buy 138 160 6,900 6,509 7,264 2.7 2.8 28.2 33.5 4.9 4.1 0.7 0.6 13.8 14.7 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 92 - 5,126 4,795 5,475 3.0 3.0 21.8 21.9 4.2 4.2 0.7 0.6 15.4 13.8 - -Axis Bank Buy 1,343 1,678 62,731 15,959 18,660 3.2 3.2 119.2 139.0 11.3 9.7 2.1 1.8 20.3 20.1 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 703 850 28,898 14,889 17,393 2.5 2.6 108.2 134.0 6.5 5.3 1.0 0.8 15.3 16.7 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 320 350 18,367 12,793 14,823 2.3 2.4 49.5 65.1 6.5 4.9 0.9 0.8 13.6 16.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 53 56 3,119 3,720 4,268 2.9 2.8 10.9 13.0 4.9 4.1 0.7 0.6 16.2 16.9 - -

Canara Bank Accumulate 416 463 18,431 10,783 12,000 2.1 2.3 64.8 82.2 6.4 5.1 0.9 0.8 13.2 15.0 - -

Central Bank Neutral 71 - 5,252 7,158 8,217 2.4 2.6 13.1 20.1 5.4 3.6 0.8 0.7 10.3 14.3 - -

Corporation Bank Buy 399 465 5,906 4,919 5,634 2.1 2.2 96.7 99.9 4.1 4.0 0.7 0.6 16.3 14.9 - -

Dena Bank Buy 89 107 3,116 3,090 3,462 2.7 2.7 25.6 24.6 3.5 3.6 0.6 0.5 19.2 15.9 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

March 04, 2013

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Financials

Federal Bank Accumulate 494 536 8,439 2,667 2,920 3.2 3.2 49.1 51.4 10.1 9.6 1.3 1.2 13.9 13.1 - -

HDFC Neutral 760 - 117,385 7,446 8,923 3.5 3.5 32.2 38.5 23.6 19.7 4.8 4.3 35.4 32.6 - -

HDFC Bank Accumulate 626 666 148,409 21,724 26,578 4.3 4.3 28.7 36.1 21.8 17.3 4.2 3.5 20.7 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,040 1,302 119,632 22,317 26,217 2.9 3.0 72.0 84.6 14.4 12.3 1.8 1.7 14.9 15.9 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 89 106 11,340 8,196 9,305 1.9 2.1 15.4 22.3 5.8 4.0 0.6 0.6 10.7 14.1 - -

Indian Bank Buy 177 208 7,611 5,716 6,362 3.2 3.2 37.7 41.1 4.7 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.9 16.2 - -

IOB Buy 70 85 5,571 7,231 8,369 2.4 2.5 10.2 20.2 6.8 3.5 0.6 0.5 7.4 13.4 - -J & K Bank Accumulate 1,265 1,406 6,131 2,784 2,932 3.7 3.7 229.2 199.6 5.5 6.3 1.2 1.1 24.6 18.2 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 232 257 11,706 1,722 2,080 2.2 2.2 19.9 24.6 11.7 9.4 1.8 1.6 16.6 17.9 - -

Oriental Bank Accumulate 276 314 8,038 6,360 7,004 2.6 2.8 48.1 59.4 5.7 4.6 0.7 0.6 12.1 13.5 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 788 957 26,724 19,202 22,040 3.2 3.4 146.8 167.9 5.4 4.7 1.0 0.8 17.6 17.5 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 25 30 3,360 1,583 1,789 3.0 2.9 3.5 4.1 7.2 6.2 1.2 1.0 19.1 17.7 - -

St Bk of India Buy 2,085 2,514 139,940 60,594 70,439 3.3 3.3 221.9 257.4 9.4 8.1 1.6 1.4 17.4 17.7 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 117 135 7,028 6,673 7,644 2.9 3.0 32.0 27.9 3.7 4.2 0.7 0.7 22.0 16.5 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 57 - 3,772 5,388 6,262 2.4 2.6 9.0 14.9 6.3 3.8 0.8 0.7 9.1 13.8 - -

Union Bank Buy 212 256 11,680 10,006 11,558 2.8 2.8 36.4 47.0 5.8 4.5 0.8 0.7 14.6 16.6 - -

United Bank Buy 62 75 2,240 3,549 3,814 2.5 2.7 12.0 21.4 5.2 2.9 0.5 0.5 10.1 16.3 - -

Vijaya Bank Accumulate 50 54 2,465 2,342 2,763 1.9 2.1 8.0 10.9 6.2 4.6 0.7 0.6 10.1 12.6 - -

Yes Bank Accumulate 473 526 16,919 3,364 4,260 2.8 3.0 36.3 42.6 13.0 11.1 2.9 2.4 24.6 23.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 4,290 - 41,154 11,198 13,319 15.9 15.7 122.1 147.1 35.1 29.2 11.9 9.3 37.7 35.7 3.6 3.0

Britannia Buy 480 564 5,741 5,580 6,417 4.8 5.0 18.1 21.7 26.6 22.2 9.6 7.7 38.7 38.7 0.9 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,276 - 17,348 3,120 3,588 20.3 21.1 38.4 45.1 33.3 28.3 30.9 24.8 104.6 97.0 5.4 4.6

Dabur India Neutral 126 - 22,039 6,196 7,183 16.3 16.8 4.5 5.5 28.1 23.1 11.6 9.0 43.4 44.0 3.6 3.0

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,957 - 16,639 3,084 3,617 15.2 16.3 103.9 123.0 38.1 32.2 12.2 10.1 34.9 34.3 4.9 4.2

Godrej Consumer Neutral 723 - 24,612 6,386 7,743 15.7 17.0 20.8 27.1 34.7 26.7 7.5 6.1 23.7 26.4 4.1 3.3

HUL Neutral 444 - 95,974 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 15.1 17.0 29.4 26.2 23.4 16.7 85.7 74.3 3.6 3.1

ITC Neutral 295 - 232,758 29,148 34,191 35.7 36.1 9.4 11.1 31.5 26.6 10.5 8.7 35.9 35.7 7.7 6.5

Marico Neutral 214 - 13,768 4,747 5,402 13.6 13.6 6.3 7.8 33.7 27.3 6.9 5.6 26.0 22.6 3.0 2.5

Nestle* Neutral 4,753 - 45,825 8,302 9,739 22.0 21.5 110.7 130.8 43.0 36.3 25.5 18.3 69.5 58.6 5.6 4.6


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FMCG

Tata Global Neutral 125 - 7,742 7,272 7,998 9.1 9.5 6.9 8.1 18.3 15.4 1.9 1.8 8.9 9.8 1.0 0.9

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 725 765 50,341 25,325 28,476 21.7 20.7 51.0 52.8 14.2 13.7 3.8 3.1 26.8 22.9 1.9 1.6

Hexaware* Buy 86 113 2,553 1,948 2,136 20.9 18.3 10.9 10.1 7.9 8.5 2.1 1.7 27.2 21.0 1.1 0.9

Infosys Neutral 2,906 - 166,873 40,746 44,283 28.9 28.8 162.6 172.9 17.9 16.8 4.2 3.6 23.5 21.3 3.5 3.1

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 169 184 1,884 1,881 1,987 17.9 17.4 18.5 19.4 9.1 8.7 1.4 1.2 14.8 13.6 0.7 0.5

KPIT Cummins Buy 107 134 2,067 2,234 2,477 15.8 15.2 10.9 12.8 9.8 8.4 2.1 1.7 22.2 20.6 0.9 0.7Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 119 125 13,954 7,711 8,683 21.6 20.3 8.7 11.3 13.6 10.5 3.2 2.5 30.6 23.7 1.4 1.2

Mindtree Neutral 858 - 3,562 2,357 2,580 21.0 19.3 84.4 86.8 10.2 9.9 2.7 2.1 26.8 21.7 1.2 1.0

Mphasis& Accumulate 374 396 7,854 5,531 5,874 17.6 17.5 35.4 37.7 10.6 9.9 1.6 1.3 14.7 13.5 0.9 0.8

NIIT Buy 23 36 381 1,048 1,161 9.1 10.9 4.1 6.2 5.6 3.8 0.6 0.5 10.3 14.1 0.2 0.1

Persistent Neutral 550 - 2,202 1,297 1,433 25.6 24.1 46.5 54.0 11.8 10.2 2.2 1.8 18.5 18.0 1.4 1.2

TCS Neutral 1,515 - 296,470 62,954 70,871 29.0 28.9 71.6 79.1 21.2 19.1 7.0 5.7 33.2 29.7 4.5 3.9

Tech Mahindra Buy 1,047 1,205 13,394 6,789 7,609 21.0 19.6 95.8 110.7 10.9 9.5 2.6 2.1 24.3 22.3 2.0 1.7

Wipro Neutral 417 - 102,576 43,514 47,304 20.1 19.4 26.6 27.7 15.7 15.1 3.1 2.7 19.7 17.9 2.0 1.8

Media

D B Corp Buy 232 276 4,263 1,583 1,787 23.9 25.4 11.9 14.5 19.6 16.0 3.9 3.3 21.4 22.4 2.6 2.2

HT Media Accumulate 104 113 2,447 2,061 2,205 14.0 15.1 6.6 7.9 15.7 13.3 1.5 1.4 10.3 11.0 0.8 0.7

Jagran Prakashan Buy 97 125 3,080 1,511 1,698 23.2 23.4 6.4 7.3 15.1 13.3 3.8 3.4 25.9 26.6 2.2 1.9

PVR Neutral 267 - 773 820 1,307 17.3 17.3 11.2 17.8 23.9 15.0 1.1 1.0 9.7 10.8 1.0 0.6

Sun TV Network Neutral 413 - 16,278 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 23.5 21.6 5.7 5.1 25.8 25.2 7.9 6.8

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 462 - 10,454 10,746 13,982 30.8 31.1 43.3 55.5 10.7 8.3 1.1 1.0 11.4 12.6 3.1 2.4Coal India Buy 310 368 195,997 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 12.8 11.7 3.8 3.1 33.1 29.1 2.0 1.7

Electrosteel Castings Buy 20 28 687 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 1.8 2.6 11.3 7.7 0.4 0.2 3.6 5.1 0.5 0.5

Hind. Zinc Buy 115 149 48,760 12,002 13,759 49.7 50.8 14.7 16.4 7.9 7.1 1.5 1.3 21.1 19.8 2.1 1.5

Hindalco Neutral 99 - 19,021 80,205 88,987 9.0 9.2 13.4 13.8 7.4 7.2 0.6 0.5 7.9 7.6 0.6 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 738 - 16,471 39,072 40,493 16.5 18.2 82.4 90.3 9.0 8.2 0.9 0.8 10.7 10.7 0.8 0.8

MOIL Neutral 242 - 4,066 933 954 46.9 45.5 25.8 26.1 9.4 9.3 1.5 1.3 16.7 15.1 1.9 1.8

Monnet Ispat Buy 235 318 1,496 2,287 2,883 21.8 21.8 35.3 40.7 6.7 5.8 0.6 0.5 9.6 10.2 1.8 1.4

Nalco Neutral 44 - 11,379 6,630 8,357 11.4 14.5 2.1 3.3 20.8 13.6 1.0 0.9 4.6 6.9 1.0 0.9

NMDC Buy 137 181 54,317 9,674 11,536 75.2 76.6 16.0 18.6 8.6 7.4 1.9 1.6 23.6 23.0 3.4 2.7


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Metals & Mining

SAIL Neutral 71 - 29,368 43,438 56,199 12.0 12.2 6.5 8.5 10.9 8.4 0.7 0.7 6.6 8.2 0.9 0.7

Sesa Goa Buy 155 183 13,428 2,412 3,911 30.8 33.1 29.6 31.8 5.2 4.9 0.8 0.7 16.3 15.4 7.0 4.4

Sterlite Inds Buy 94 110 31,557 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 5.6 5.2 0.6 0.6 11.6 11.2 0.7 0.6

Tata Steel Buy 342 443 33,250 142,732 146,575 7.4 9.9 7.2 34.7 47.7 9.9 0.8 0.7 1.6 7.5 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 101 148 363 1,442 1,494 19.0 19.1 29.2 31.7 3.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 12.3 12.0 0.6 0.6

Prakash Industries Buy 33 52 449 2,512 2,816 12.4 13.7 10.0 12.6 3.4 2.7 0.2 0.2 7.2 8.4 0.5 0.4

Godawari Power andIspat Buy 90 112 287 2,367 2,425 14.2 13.7 33.3 33.5 2.7 2.7 0.3 0.3 12.9 11.2 0.6 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 298 383 56,922 17,394 17,034 76.4 72.3 60.8 55.1 4.9 5.4 1.0 0.9 21.9 17.0 2.4 2.1

GAIL Neutral 333 - 42,190 48,077 55,815 15.3 15.3 34.9 35.9 9.5 9.3 1.7 1.5 19.0 17.0 0.6 0.5

ONGC Accumulate 313 357 268,086 144,089 158,065 32.8 34.7 28.7 34.4 10.9 9.1 1.8 1.6 17.0 18.3 1.6 1.4

Reliance Industries Neutral 815 - 263,008 362,700 380,031 8.9 8.9 68.1 71.5 12.0 11.4 1.3 1.2 12.4 11.8 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 277 - 3,555 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 11.7 10.8 3.3 2.8 29.6 28.2 0.8 0.8

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 256 - 3,589 3,365 3,700 22.8 23.4 25.3 26.6 10.1 9.6 2.4 2.0 26.0 22.6 1.2 1.0

Petronet LNG Buy 141 179 10,564 32,210 41,362 6.1 5.8 15.4 15.6 9.2 9.0 2.4 2.0 29.1 24.1 0.4 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 65 - 3,655 1,079 983 91.8 91.9 8.8 7.8 7.4 8.3 1.2 1.1 17.8 14.1 3.1 3.4

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Accumulate 83 95 1,569 1,490 1,714 16.2 17.1 7.4 9.5 11.3 8.8 3.1 2.4 30.7 30.2 1.2 1.0

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 162 208 4,703 5,463 6,279 15.0 15.0 12.4 14.0 13.0 11.5 1.7 1.4 18.8 17.8 1.4 1.3

Aventis* Neutral 2,341 - 5,391 1,482 1,682 17.5 16.6 82.9 87.8 28.2 26.7 4.4 3.6 16.3 14.8 3.4 2.9

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 759 817 15,542 6,148 7,386 15.3 18.0 24.6 39.5 30.9 19.2 5.8 4.7 18.4 25.1 2.9 2.4

Cipla Buy 361 419 28,965 8,151 9,130 25.8 24.8 20.2 21.6 17.9 16.7 3.2 2.7 19.4 17.6 3.3 2.9

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,761 1,859 29,887 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 21.0 19.0 4.3 3.6 22.4 20.8 3.1 2.7

Dishman Pharma Buy 69 155 557 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 12.1 15.5 5.7 4.5 0.6 0.5 10.0 11.6 1.1 1.0

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,110 - 17,873 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.8 25.6 8.0 7.2 20.1 26.3 5.9 5.2

Indoco Remedies Buy 65 78 596 642 784 14.2 15.2 5.7 7.8 11.4 8.3 1.4 1.2 12.9 16.4 1.1 1.0

Ipca labs Accumulate 497 559 6,276 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 16.6 13.3 4.0 3.2 26.7 26.4 2.4 2.0

Lupin Accumulate 585 655 26,187 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.1 31.1 22.4 18.8 5.2 4.2 25.8 24.7 3.2 2.7

Ranbaxy* Neutral 380 - 16,059 12,253 11,400 14.1 12.5 31.2 21.6 12.2 17.6 3.9 3.4 37.9 20.6 1.3 1.3

Sun Pharma Neutral 803 - 82,977 10,111 12,563 42.6 42.6 28.9 29.8 27.8 26.9 5.6 4.8 22.3 19.2 7.6 5.9

Power

GIPCL Accumulate 72 78 1,089 1,502 1,535 32.1 31.9 11.4 12.5 6.3 5.8 0.7 0.7 7.6 11.9 1.2 1.0


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Power

NTPC Accumulate 151 163 124,300 72,809 81,951 23.4 24.1 12.2 13.6 12.4 11.1 1.5 1.4 12.2 12.5 2.3 2.2

Real Estate

DLF Neutral 277 - 47,020 7,953 9,699 34.7 37.0 4.4 6.0 63.3 46.4 1.8 1.7 3.1 3.8 8.0 6.3

MLIFE Accumulate 403 446 1,647 786 888 26.3 26.7 31.0 36.3 13.0 11.1 1.3 1.2 10.1 10.8 2.4 2.1

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Accumulate 324 350 122,869 80,521 87,160 30.5 30.5 6.4 10.4 50.6 31.1 2.3 2.2 4.6 7.0 2.4 2.1

Idea Cellular Neutral 117 - 38,867 22,087 23,927 26.6 27.7 2.9 3.9 40.1 30.1 2.8 2.5 6.9 8.4 2.3 2.1Rcom Neutral 61 - 12,622 21,087 22,067 31.8 31.9 2.6 4.0 23.3 15.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.1

zOthers

Abbott India Buy 1,361 1,590 2,891 1,629 1,886 11.8 13.3 60.8 79.5 22.4 17.1 4.6 3.8 22.0 24.4 1.6 1.3

Bajaj Electricals Buy 180 217 1,795 3,450 3,929 4.5 7.4 10.0 15.5 18.0 11.6 2.3 2.0 13.0 17.4 0.5 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Buy 413 495 523 460 596 16.4 16.2 34.7 45.0 11.9 9.2 2.9 2.3 27.7 27.8 1.2 1.0

Cravatex Buy 354 545 91 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 9.4 7.8 2.2 1.8 23.7 22.7 0.4 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 962 - 6,757 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 28.0 24.1 12.7 10.1 50.9 46.9 6.5 5.4

Finolex Cables Buy 48 61 727 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 5.8 4.7 0.8 0.7 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.2

Force Motors Buy 401 550 522 2,027 2,299 4.6 5.1 35.3 50.0 11.4 8.0 0.5 0.4 3.9 5.3 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India Buy 285 360 657 1,494 1,607 6.4 7.8 23.9 33.0 11.9 8.6 1.9 1.6 16.5 20.1 0.2 0.2

Greenply Industries Reduce 344 309 831 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 11.6 7.8 1.9 1.5 16.8 21.0 0.7 0.6

Hitachi Neutral 131 - 301 905 1,025 4.8 6.0 7.7 12.4 17.1 10.6 1.6 1.4 9.9 14.4 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,600 2,842 2,299 2,117 2,491 8.1 7.8 140.5 157.9 18.5 16.5 2.8 2.4 16.3 15.8 1.0 0.8

Styrolution ABS India* Buy 617 744 1,085 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 17.1 14.7 2.5 2.2 15.4 16.0 1.1 1.0

ITD Cementation Buy 201 334 232 1,455 1,630 12.4 12.6 29.8 40.5 6.8 5.0 0.5 0.5 8.2 9.8 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 158 167 2,548 816 979 14.5 14.9 5.2 6.0 30.7 26.3 3.5 3.3 8.8 10.2 3.4 2.7MCX Buy 1,145 1,440 5,839 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 18.3 15.9 5.0 4.4 27.5 27.4 7.6 6.2

MRF Buy 11,491 13,416 4,874 13,030 14,405 10.3 10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1 8.1 6.9 1.4 1.2 19.1 18.7 0.5 0.4

Page Industries Neutral 3,298 - 3,679 856 1,047 19.1 19.6 101.2 127.3 32.6 25.9 16.7 12.4 58.5 54.9 4.4 3.6

Relaxo Footwears Buy 636 887 763 989 1,148 10.7 11.7 41.8 55.5 15.2 11.5 3.5 2.7 25.5 26.3 0.9 0.8

Sintex Industries Buy 55 79 1,721 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.0 3.5 0.5 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 264 332 248 1,048 1,157 11.3 12.0 58.7 66.5 4.5 4.0 0.8 0.7 18.9 18.3 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 9 - 269 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.6 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 35 43 1,717 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 9.8 6.6 14.2 4.5 - - 0.4 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 66 108 412 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.3 7.2 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.4


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zOthers

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 308 379 475 782 818 16.5 17.0 61.8 65.4 5.0 4.7 0.7 0.7 15.7 14.7 0.3 0.2

TTK Healthcare Buy 428 643 333 374 425 7.9 9.5 24.1 32.7 17.8 13.1 19.7 22.5 0.7 0.6

TVS Srichakra Buy 212 276 162 1,461 1,591 5.6 7.1 6.9 39.4 30.6 5.4 1.2 1.0 3.8 20.6 0.3 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,841 - 24,075 10,473 11,939 15.0 15.8 30.4 56.9 60.6 32.4 4.6 2.9 10.8 12.3 3.0 2.3

Vesuvius India Neutral 325 - 659 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 13.2 11.3 2.0 1.7 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 01, 2013


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Documents

Market Outlook, 04.03.13