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Managing Economic Future: The future has already begun . The 2010 SEE Management Forum Bled- Kopaonik , 16 September 2010. International environment – key features. Two-speed world recovery (Asia , USA: Europe) Rising risk of inflation , interest rates , commodity prices - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Managing Economic Future: The future has already begun
The 2010 SEE Management Forum Bled-Kopaonik, 16 September 2010
International environment – key features
Source: SORS; OECD Economic Outlook, May 2010
2009 2010 2011
World GDP growth in % -0.9 4.6 4.5
- USA -2.4 3.2 3.2
- China 8.7 11.1 9.7
- EMU -4.1 1.2 1.8
• Germany -4.9 2.0 2.1
• Slovenia -7.8 1.4 2.4
World trade -11.0 10.6 8.4
Two-speed world recovery (Asia, USA: Europe)Rising risk of inflation, interest rates, commodity pricesSovereign debt crisis(New) sources of growth: innovation, green growth, trade
3
Many challenges ahead for businesses
3
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Low economic growth potential
Public debt
Financial stability
Access, price and availability of energy and raw materials
Demography
Eff icient use of resources
Climate change
Source: Commission’s analysis of the contributions to the public consultation on Europe 2020, November 2009-February 2010. Nearly 300 business stakeholders replied.
Governments and markets after the crisis: finding a new balance
• Where do we stand with fair and measured regulatory reform to strengthen the global financial system? How to reduce the risks posed to taxpayers and to broader social objectives ?
• What is the respective role of markets and government to rebalance the world economy? What can improved co-ordination and better governance at the supra-national level achieve?
• How to restore the sustainability of public finances without running into persistently high unemployment? Do high levels of public debt impair growth prospects?
• How to match efficiency with fairness in modern welfare systems when public coffers are empty? What are the limits of market-driven growth to combat inequality, poverty and social exclusion?
Post-crisis economic challenges for governments
– Bringing public finance back to sustainable levels
– Bolster growth prospects and strengthen credibility of institutions
– Simultaneously tackle fiscal challenges and competitiveness problems
– Implementation of structural reform efforts– Improving economic governance
Improving EU Economic Governance
• Reinforcing the Stability and Growth Pact and budgetary discipline– Introduction of the European Semester as of 2011– Minimum requirements for national fiscal
frameworks– Strengthening the debt criterion– New or better enforced existing sanctions
• Surveillance of the macroeconomic imbalances in the EU based on a scoreboard
7
Europe 2020: Seven Flagship Initiatives
Smart Growth Sustainable Growth
Inclusive Growth
Innovation« Innovation Union »
Climate, energy and mobility
« Resource efficient Europe »
Employment and skills
« An agenda for new skills and jobs »
Education« Youth on the
move »
Competitiveness« An industrial policy for the
globalisation era »
Fighting poverty« European platform against poverty »
Digital society« A digital agenda for
Europe »
7
Regional challenge: Danube Strategy Danube Strategy (EUSDR) - a framework for the
implementation of Europe 2020 goals on a macro-regional level (8 EU MS)
Enhanced co-operation of 14 countries of the Danube area in limited number of priority areas, based on existing financial and institutional resources
SEE Management Forum Bled-Kopaonik - a valuable contribution of the management sector to the
EUSDR implementation(to be included in the Action Plan)
Domestic challenge: Slovenian Exit Strategy 2010–2013
The Slovenian Exit Strategy Policy MixB.DEVELOPMENT
PRIORITIES:• SETTING PRIORITY
MEASURES AND PROJECTS TO ACHIEVE DEVELOPMENT
• ADJUSTMENTS OF THE
• COHESION POLICY
A.CONSOLIDATION OF PUBLIC FINANCES:• EXPENDITURE
FISCAL RULE• TARGET DEFICIT
AND PUBLIC DEBT
C.FINANCIAL
INSTRUMENTS FOR DEVELOPMENT:
• GUARANTEE SCHEMES
• COORDINATION OF FINANCING MECHANISMS
• DEALING WITH IMPAIRED ASSETS
D2.SOCIAL COHESION:• SOCIAL RIGHTS TO
PUBLIC FUNDS• SOCIAL
PROTECTION CASH BENEFITS
D1.FLEXICURITY ELEMENTS
ON THE LABOUR MARKET:
• A CEILING ON SOCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS
• ACTIVE EMPLOYMENT POLICY
• IMPROVEMENTS OF LABOUR RELATIONS
E1. INSTITUTIONAL ADJUSTMENTS:· CORPORATE
GOVERNANCE· FINANCIAL
SUPERVISION· PUBLIC SERVICES· COMPETITIONE2. STRUCTURAL
MEASURES:· PENSION SYSTEM· HEALTH SYSTEM· LONG-TERM CARE
Fiscal stability Goal: government deficit reduction below 3% GDP until 2013 Guiding principle: fiscal consolidation to be achieved by
adjusting expenditure and not by increasing taxes Fiscal rule: government expenditure linked to trend in growth
of GDP Program based budgeting: improving budgeting procedures National development priorities:
►creation of new jobs and development of knowledge ► promotion and setting up of innovative businesses
► improved employability - qualifications of individuals► development-oriented transport and energy infrastructure
Sources: SORS, APG-2004; Sambt 2009.
DEFICIT
SURPLUS
DEFICIT
AGE25 years
AGE 56 years
Aging-related challenge
31 years
Labour income
Total consumption
Age
Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Report, 2009.
Improving competitiveness
Source: World Bank: Doing Business, 2007-2010.
2007 2008 2009 2010
Starting a business (rank) 98 120 41 26
Procedures (number) 9 9 5 3
Time (days) 60 60 19 6
Cost (% of income per capita) 9.4 8.5 0.1 0
Min. capital (% of income per capita) 16.1 49.8 46.8 43.3
Construction permits (rank) 63 62 69 59
Procedures (number) 14 15 15 14
Time (days) 207 208 208 197
Cost (% of income per capita) 122 114 112.2 79.9
Employing workers (rank) 146 166 158 162
Difficulty of hiring index (0-100) 61 78 78 78
Rigidity of hours index (0-100) 60 60 60 53
Difficulty of redundancy index (0-100) 50 50 40 30
Rigidity of employment index (0-100) 57 63 59 54
Redundancy cost (0-100) 40 40 37 37
Doing Business-rankings of Slovenia
Simplifying the administrative procedures
Thank you for your attention.