7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

1/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv Tnvint

Khghaiga Dhui|hm Cm`qt ig hgNd`g`kid D`kk~gi|y:\bn Dhtn `c HTNHG Dhui|hmHdd`~g| Mifnvhmizh|i`g

Y~ga Db~m Uhvohgl Tbigji \hohai

G`' 412H~a~t| 6586

Htihg Lnsnm`ukng| Fhgo Igt|i|~|n

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

2/23

\bn Q`voiga Uhunv tnvint it h d`g|ig~h|i`g `c |bn c`vknvmy ghknl Litd~tti`g Uhunv tnvint? |bng~kfnviga `c |bn uhunvt d`g|ig~nl qi|b`~| ig|nvv~u|i`g `v dbhgan' HLFIt q`voiga uhunvtvncmnd| igi|ihm ilnht `g h |`uid hgl hvn u`t|nl `gmign c`v litd~tti`g' HLFI ngd`~vhant vnhlnvt |`u`t| |bniv d`kkng|t `g |bn khig uhan c`v nhdb q`voiga uhunv "aisng ig |bn di|h|i`g fnm`q)'T`kn q`voiga uhunvt khy lnsnm`u ig|` `|bnv c`vkt `c u~fmidh|i`g'

T~aant|nl di|h|i`g:

Uhvo- Y' D' hgl T' \hohai' 6586' Khghaiga Dhui|hm Cm`qt ig hg Nd`g`kid D`kk~gi|y:\bn Dhtn `c HTNHG Dhui|hm Hdd`~g| Mifnvhmizh|i`g' HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412' \`oy`: HtihgLnsnm`ukng| Fhgo Igt|i|~|n' Hshimhfmn: b||u:qqq'hlfi'`vaq`voiga+

uhunv65865245>664'khghaiga'dhui|hm'cm`qt'htnhg'hdd`~g|'mifnvhmizh|i`g

Umnhtn d`g|hd| |bn h~|b`v c`v igc`vkh|i`g hf`~| |bit uhunv'

Nkhim: y~gaduEo`vnh'hd'ov? |hohaiEnd`g'`thoh+~'hd'ju

Y~ga Db~m Uhvo it lit|iga~itbnl uv`cntt`v h| |bn Lisiti`g `c Ig|nvgh|i`ghm T|~lint- O`vnh^gisnvti|y' Tbigji \hohai it uv`cntt`v `c nd`g`kidt h| |bn Avhl~h|n Tdb``m `c Nd`g`kidt-@thoh ^gisnvti|y'

Hg nhvminv snvti`g `c |bit uhunv qht uvntng|nl h| |bn U`midy Vntnhvdb Igt|i|~|n UVI)Htihg Lnsnm`ukng| Fhgo Igt|i|~|n "HLFI) d`gcnvngdn `g Hdbinsiga Cighgdihm T|hfimi|yMntt`gt cv`k |bn N~v`z`gn Dvitit c`v Khdv`nd`g`kid hgl Cighgdihm T|hfimi|y- bnml ig\`oy` `g8< Khvdb 6586' \bn h~|b`vt |bhgo Uv`cntt`v Bqnn Oqhg Db`q hgl `|bnvd`gcnvngdn uhv|idiuhg|t c`v ~tnc~m d`kkng|t `g hg nhvminv lvhc|' \bny vnkhig t`mnmyvntu`gtifmn c`v hgy vnkhigiga nvv`vt'

\bn sinqt nruvnttnl ig |bit uhunv hvn |bn sinqt `c |bn h~|b`v hgl l` g`| gndntthvimyvncmnd| |bn sinqt `v u`midint `c HLFI- |bn HLF- i|t F`hvl `c Livnd|`vt- `v |bn a`snvgkng|t|bny vnuvntng|' HLFI l`nt g`| a~hvhg|nn |bn hdd~vhdy `c |bn lh|h igdm~lnl ig |bit uhunv

Htihg Lnsnm`ukng| Fhgo Igt|i|~|nOht~kiahtnoi F~imliga 2C4+6+> Oht~kiahtnoi- Dbiy`lh+o~\`oy` 855+3552- Jhuhg

\nm: /28+4+4>94+>>55Chr: /28+4+4>94+>>18^VM: qqq'hlfi'`vaN+khim: igc`Ehlfi'`va

6586 Htihg Lnsnm`ukng| Fhgo Igt|i|~|n

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

3/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

Hft|vhd|

\bn uhunv ~tnt |bn nknvaiga Htt`dih|i`g `c T`~|bnht| Htihg Gh|i`gt "HTNHG) Nd`g`kidD`kk~gi|y ht h k`|ish|i`g |` nrum`vn |bn itt~n `c dhui|hm cm`q khghankng| ig hg nd`g`kidd`kk~gi|y' Hm|b`~ab |bnvn it hg igdvnhtigamy tbhvnl sinq |bh| dhui|hm cm`q khghankng|knht~vnt tb`~ml fn uhv| `c |bn v`~|ign u`midy |``moi| `c nknvaiga khvon| nd`g`kint- |bn m`aid `c

hg nd`g`kid d`kk~gi|y huunhvt igd`kuh|ifmn qi|b nr|ngtisn d`g|v`mt `g dhui|hm cm`qt'T~ft|hg|ihm- ic g`| d`kumn|n- dhui|hm hdd`~g| mifnvhmizh|i`g k~t| |bnvnc`vn |hon umhdn hdv`ttHTNHG' Cnq HTNHG d`~g|vint hvn nrund|nl |` bhsn litkhg|mnl hmm dhui|hm hdd`~g| vnt|vid|i`gtfy 658>- |b~t vnx~iviga mi||mn gnnl |` ig|v`l~dn hg ng|ivnmy gnq tn| `c dhui|hm cm`q khghankng|knht~vnt' @snv |bn m`ganv |nvk- |bn ~m|ikh|n vnx~ivnkng|t `c hg nd`g`kid d`kk~gi|y tnnk |`lid|h|n |bh| hgy vnkhigiga knht~vnt fn khvon|+fhtnl hgl g`| vntilngdy+fhtnl' Vnai`ghmd``unvh|i`g q`~ml fn ~tnc~m ig ngbhgdiga iglisil~hm d`~g|vy ncc`v|t- igdm~liga d`mmnd|isnmyhavnniga `g |bn lncigi|i`g `c h dvitit hgl hccivkiga |bn viab| `c h knkfnv d`~g|vy |` ig|v`l~dn hgnknvangdy knht~vn ig |bn nsng| `c h dvitit' @~v httnttkng| it |bh| k`t| `c |bn igcm`qvnt|vid|i`gt d`~ml fn vnk`snl x~idomy qi|b`~| dvnh|iga hlli|i`ghm vitot? d`g|v`mt `g uvish|n dhui|hm`~|cm`qt d`~ml hmt` fn vnmhrnl- hmfni| k`vn j~lidi`~tmy- ic c`v g` `|bnv vnht`g |bhg |` uv`k`|nvnai`ghm cighgdihm ig|navh|i`g'

JNM Dmhtticidh|i`g: C44- C43- @>4

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

4/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

D`g|ng|t

8' Ig|v`l~d|i`g ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 46'

Vh|i`ghmnt c`v Dhui|hm Cm`q Khghankng|

''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' >

6'8 Fngnci|t `c Dhui|hm Cm`qt ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' >6'6 Vitot `c Dhui|hm Cm`qt ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 36'4 \bn Nknvaiga D`gtngt~t ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 2

4' Dhui|hm Hdd`~g| Mifnvhmizh|i`g ig HTNHG '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 94'8 Uhdn hgl Tnx~ngdiga `c Dhui|hm Hdd`~g| Mifnvhmizh|i`g ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 94'6 Httnttiga Dhui|hm Hdd`~g| @unggntt ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''88

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

5/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

4

8' IG\V@L^D\I@G

\bit uhunv nrum`vnt |bn itt~n `c dhui|hm cm`q khghankng| ig h vnai`g d`kki||nl |` cvnn dhui|hm

k`fimi|y- ~tiga ht h dhtn t|~ly |bn nd`g`kid d`kk~gi|y d~vvng|my fniga c`vknl fy |bnHtt`dih|i`g `c T`~|bnht| Htihg Gh|i`gt "HTNHG)'

8\bn HTNHG mnhlnvt- knn|iga h| |bn 86|b

\bit u`midy+lvisng uv`dntt `c cighgdihm ig|navh|i`g ig HTNHG d`knt hahigt| |bn fhdoav`~gl `c

hg `g+a`iga uhvhliak tbic| ig |bn qhy qn |bigo hf`~| ig|nvgh|i`ghm dhui|hm cm`qt' ^tn `c dhui|hm

d`g|v`mt hgl `|bnv dhui|hm cm`q khghankng| knht~vnt- `gdn d`glnkgnl fy |bn khigt|vnhk

|bigoiga `c |bn nd`g`kidt uv`cntti`g- bht htt~knl avnh|nv vntund|hfimi|y ig vndng| ynhvt "IN@

655 @d|`fnv 6588'

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

6/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

6' VH\I@GHMNT C@V DHUI\HM CM@Q KHGHANKNG\

6'8 Fngnci|t `c Dhui|hm Cm`qt

Ig gn`dmhttidhm nd`g`kidt- |bn dhtn c`v cvnn dhui|hm k`fimi|y it tikimhv |` |bn dhtn c`v cvnn |vhln:

i| uv`k`|nt hg ncciding| hmm`dh|i`g `c thsigat hdv`tt gh|i`ghm f`vlnvt- bngdn avnh|nv nd`g`kid

av`q|b hgl qnmchvn "Citdbnv 8992)' B`qnsnv- |bnvn bht fnng t~vuvitigamy mi||mn d`gdm~tisn

nsilngdn |` lh|n |` ni|bnv t~uu`v| `v vnc~|n t~db h sinq' K~db `c vndng| nkuividhm q`vo bht

hllvnttnl |bit itt~n cv`k |bn t|hglu`ig| `c |bn nccnd| `c dhui|hm mifnvhmizh|i`g `g nd`g`kid

av`q|b "tnn Nlit`g n| hm' 6556 c`v h t~vsny)' \bn lnfh|n vnkhigt igd`gdm~tisn igt`chv ht t~db

nkuividhm t|~lint igbnvng|my igs`msn h j`ig| |nt| `c |bn nccnd| `c mifnvhmizh|i`g `g av`q|b hgl |bn

uhv|id~mhv kn|b`l `c x~hg|icyiga |bn lnavnn `c mifnvhmizh|i`g' \bn igd`gdm~tisngntt `c |bntn

t|~lint khy hmt` fn l~n |` h c~glhkng|hm kittundicidh|i`g `c |bn qhy |bny |nt| |bn fngnci|t `c

dhui|hm hdd`~g| `unggntt' I| khy fn |bh| |bn av`q|b+ngbhgdiga nccnd| `c `unggntt it h `gn+

|ikn nsng|' H tnvint `c t|~lint |bh| livnd|my |nt|nl |bn `gn+|ikn fngnci| `c h litdvn|n dbhgan ig

dhui|hm hdd`~g| u`midyqbidb Bngvy "6551) dhmmt |bn u`midy+nrunvikng| huuv`hdbbhsn lvhqg

h k~db mntt hkfia~`~t d`gdm~ti`g hf`~| |bn u`ti|isn ikuhd| `c t|`do khvon| mifnvhmizh|i`g `g

av`q|b hgl igsnt|kng|' \bn u`ti|isn ikuhd| `c dhui|hm hdd`~g| `unggntt bht hmt` fnng tb`qg

|` fn mntt hkfia~`~t c`v c`vniag livnd| igsnt|kng| "CLI) cm`qt- nsng ic |bn d`gsng|i`ghm

huuv`hdb it ~tnl "Vnitng hgl T`|` 6558)'

Vndng| t|~lint hva~n |bh| |bn fngnci|t `c cvnn dhui|hm k`fimi|y hvitn g`| t` k~db cv`k |bn

avnh|nv hshimhfimi|y `c cighgdihm vnt`~vdnt ht cv`k |bn ngbhgdnl uv`l~d|isi|y htt`dih|nl qi|b

c`vniag dhui|hm "Uvhthl hgl Vhjhg 6552)' I| c`mm`qt |bh| h d`~g|vy k~t| fn hf`sn h dnv|hig|bvntb`ml `c igt|i|~|i`ghm hgl nd`g`kid lnsnm`ukng| |` fn hfmn |` |vhgtmh|n c`vniag dhui|hm ig|`

uv`l~d|isi|y av`q|b' O`tn- Uvhthl- hgl \hym`v "6559) uvntng| nsilngdn |bh| cighgdihm lnu|b hgl

igt|i|~|i`ghm x~hmi|y hvn |bn |q` k`t| iku`v|hg| shvihfmnt |bh| hmm`q c`vniag dhui|hm igcm`qt |`

bhsn h u`ti|isn nccnd| `g av`q|b' @|bnv t|~lint bhsn c`d~tnl `g |bn iglivnd| fngnci|t `c DHM-

t~db ht cighgdihm tnd|`v lnsnm`ukng|- igt|i|~|i`gt- a`snvghgdn- hgl khdv`nd`g`kid t|hfimi|y'

\bnvn it igdvnhtiga nsilngdn |bh| cighgdihm `unggntt uv`k`|nt |bn lnsnm`ukng| `c |bn

l`knt|id cighgdihm tnd|`v- iku`tn litdiumign `g khdv`nd`g`kid u`midint- angnvh|n nccidingdy

ahigt hk`ga l`knt|id civkt- hgl ~gmnhtb c`vdnt |bh| vnt~m| ig fn||nv u~fmid hgl d`vu`vh|n

a`snvghgdn "O`tn- Uvhthl- V`a`cc- hgl Qni 6559)' \bng- DHM bnmut f~iml |bn snvy d`gli|i`gt

|bh| qimm d`g|vif~|n |` khoiga |bn uv`dntt uv`l~d|isn'

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

8/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

3

6'6 Vitot `c Dhui|hm Cm`qt

I| k~t| fn hdog`qmnlanl |bh| nknvaiga khvon| hgl lnsnm`uiga d`~g|vint hvn ignsi|hfmn

vndiuing|t `c dhui|hm igcm`qt ig |bn uv`dntt `c f~imliga |bniv dhui|hm mhf`v vh|i` ~u |` |bn mnsnmtuvnshimiga ig kh|~vn nd`g`kint- f~| ig vnhmi|y |bn vndiuing|t `c mhvan dhui|hm igcm`qt bhsn

|yuidhmmy fnng d`gdng|vh|nl ig h bhglc~m `c nknvaiga khvon| nd`g`kint- ntundihmmy ig Nht|

Htih hgl Nht|nvg N~v`un "Avngsimmn 6585)' \bit t~aant|t |bh| u~mm chd|`vt bhsn umhynl h

uhv|id~mhvmy iku`v|hg| v`mn ig ln|nvkigiga |bn livnd|i`g hgl tizn `c am`fhm dhui|hm cm`qt' H| |bn

thkn |ikn- |bn uh||nvg `c dhui|hm cm`qt tnng ig khgy iglisil~hm d`~g|vint bht hmt`

d`vvntu`glnl vnkhvohfmy qnmm |` |bn uh||nvg `c am`fhm dhui|hm cm`qt ig|` nknvaiga hgl

lnsnm`uiga d`~g|vint' \b~t- |bn iku`v|hgdn `c u~tb chd|`vt it hmt` nsilng|'

Hllnl |` |bn am`fhm chd|`vt hvn vnai`ghm chd|`vt' Vndng| nrunvingdn t~aant|t |bh| |bnvn it h

an`avhubidhm d`ku`gng| |` |bn uh||nvg hgl tizn `c gn| dhui|hm igcm`qt- qbidb Tdbhlmnv "6585)

dhmmt |bn gniabf`vb``l nccnd|' D`gsnvtnmy- qbng t~llng `~|cm`qt dh~tn h d~vvngdy dvitit-

d`g|hai`g `c|ng bht h vnai`ghm c`d~t- ht qht |bn dhtn ig Htih h| |bn |ikn `c |bn 8991 dvitit `v

N~v`un h| |bn bniab| `c |bn 6552 am`fhm cighgdihm dvitit' Uhv| `c |bn vnht`g k~t| fn vnmh|nl |`

|bn t|vnga|bt `c ig|nvd`ggnd|nlgntt hk`ga |bn gniabf`viga nd`g`kint `c h vnai`g' F~| h| |bn

thkn |ikn- t`kn tnn ig |bit |bn v`mn `c tund~mh|i`g- bnvl fnbhsi`v hgl `|bnv g`g+nd`g`kid

chd|`vt "D``unv 8999)' Ig nknvaiga t|`do khvon|t ig uhv|id~mhv- |bnvn it nkuividhm nsilngdn |`

tb`q |bh| c`vniag igsnt|`vt litumhy avnh|nv bnvliga fnbhsi`v |bhg l`knt|id igsnt|`vt

"Fiobdbhglhgi hgl Tbhvkh 6558)'

Ht h vnt~m|- dhui|hm cm`qt bhsn fnng biabmy dydmidhm h| |bn am`fhm mnsnm hgl- h| |bn mnsnm `c

iglisil~hm nknvaiga khvon|t- biabmy uv`dymidhm' Am`fhmmy- dv`tt+f`vlnv dhui|hm cm`qt |` nknvaigahgl lnsnm`uiga d`~g|vint bhsn tnng |bvnn dydmnt `c hf`~| 85 ynhvt nhdb `snv |bn uht| |bvnn

lndhlnt "Cia~vn 8)' Ig |bn nhvmy 8925t gn| dhui|hm igcm`qt lvinl ~u hgl |~vgnl gnah|isn- ig |bn

hc|nvkh|b `c |bn lnsnm`uiga d`~g|vy lnf| dvitit' \bit qht c`mm`qnl fy h t~van ig gn| dhui|hm

igcm`qt- qbidb mht|nl ~g|im |bn Htihg cighgdihm dvitit `c 899192' Gn| dhui|hm igcm`qt |bng |~vgnl

gnah|isn ~g|im |bn kil+6555t' Gn| dhui|hm igcm`qt t~vanl ig 6551 fnc`vn d`mmhutiga hc|nv |bn

am`fhm cighgdihm dvitit' I| tb`~ml fn u`ig|nl `~| |bh| |bit dydmidhmi|y l`nt g`| huumy |` CLI- h| mnht|

|` |bn thkn nr|ng|' \b`~ab gn| CLI igcm`qt l` nrbifi| cm~d|~h|i`gt- |bny bhsn d`gtit|ng|my fnng

u`ti|isn l~viga 89256585' K`vn`snv- |bn tizn `c gn| CLI igcm`qt vnmh|isn |` ALU bht tnng h

t~ft|hg|ihm hgl unvkhgng| igdvnhtn `snv |bit unvi`l'

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

9/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

1

Cia~vn 8: Gn| Uvish|n Dhui|hm Igcm`qt |` Nknvaiga hgl Lnsnm`uiga Nd`g`kint

". `c ALU)

T`~vdn: IKC- QN@ lh|hfhtn

H| |bn d`~g|vy mnsnm- h d`mmnd|isn hd|i`g uv`fmnk huunhvt |` `unvh|n ig |bn lyghkidt `c

nknvaiga cighgdihm khvon|t' Qbng hg nd`g`ky ng|nvt ig|` |bn ~utqiga ubhtn `c h f~tigntt

dydmn- fhgot hgl `|bnv g`g+fhgo cighgdihm igt|i|~|i`gt nruhgl |bniv mngliga ig |bn fnminc |bh|

dvnli| vito bht lndvnhtnl' \vhli|i`ghm vn|him lnu`ti|t "d`vn mihfimi|int) l` g`| `c|ng onnu uhdn

qi|b httn| av`q|b hgl fhgot |~vg |` `|bnv c~gliga t`~vdnt- t~db ht l`knt|id hgl ig|nvgh|i`ghm

qb`mnthmn c~gliga khvon|t "g`g+d`vn mihfimi|int) |` cighgdn |bniv mngliga- dh~tiga h t~van ig

dhui|hm igcm`qt' Bhbk n| hm' "6586) ~tn O`vnhg lh|h |` lnk`gt|vh|n |bh| |bn g`g+d`vn fhgo

mihfimi|int hvn iglnnl k`vn uv`dydmidhm |bhg |bn d`vn mihfimi|int' H mhvan tbhvn `c |bn mngliga t`

c~glnl it `c|ng hmm`dh|nl |` cighgdiga |bn d`gt|v~d|i`g `c vntilng|ihm b`~tnt hgl d`kknvdihm

nt|h|nt- tn||iga `cc h f``k hgl h f~ffmn ig |bn vnhm nt|h|n khvon|t'

H dvnli| nruhgti`g cnnlt- hgl it `c|ng cnl fy- hg httn| khvon| f``k' Fhgot hgl `|bnv cighgdihm

igt|i|~|i`gt khy vnhmizn |bh| |bniv mngliga `unvh|i`gt d`~ml iglnnl dvnh|n hg httn| khvon|

f``k- t`qiga |bn tnnlt `c h f~ffmn- qbidb qimm nsng|~hmmy f~vt|' I| q`~ml fn ig |bniv ig|nvnt| |`

vnt|vhig |bniv mngliga d`mmnd|isnmy- f~| |bnvn it g` khvon| kndbhgitk |` fviga hf`~| t~db hg

havnnkng| hk`ga cighgdihm igt|i|~|i`gt' Nsng|~hmmy- |bn nruhgti`g ubhtn d`knt |` hg ngl hgl

|bn nd`g`ky ng|nvt |bn d`g|vhd|i`ghvy unvi`l `c |bn f~tigntt dydmn' H| |bit u`ig|- c`vniagmnglnvt fnd`kn d`gtdi`~t `c |bn u`|ng|ihm igdvnhtn ig |bn dvnli| vito `c |bniv nru`t~vn hgl

fnaig |` vndhmm |bn nrit|iga m`hgt qbimn vnc~tiga |` nr|ngl gnq `gnt' \bnvn c`mm`qt h t~llng

t|`u `c dhui|hm igcm`qt hgl- q`vtn t|imm- mhvan dhui|hm `~|cm`qt' Fndh~tn hmm c`vniag cighgdihm

igt|i|~|i`gt hgl `|bnv mnglnvt fnbhsn |bn thkn qhy- |bny ngl ~u lnnungiga |bn d`g|vhd|i`g ig

|bn uv`dntt'

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

10/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

2

6'4 \bn Nknvaiga D`gtngt~t

Qi|b |bn vnd`agi|i`g |bh| dhui|hm igcm`qt hvn uv`dydmidhm hgl |bh| am`fhm chd|`vt umhy h dvi|idhm

v`mn ig |bn uv`uhah|i`g `c dydmidhmi|y- |bnvn it g`q h lnsnm`uiga d`gtngt~t |bh| nknvaiga

khvon| nd`g`kint dhg "`v tb`~ml) iku`tn dhui|hm d`g|v`mt hgl `|bnv dhui|hm cm`q khghankng|

knht~vnt' Ig uhv|id~mhv- lnuhv|iga cv`k i|t m`ga+t|hgliga u`ti|i`g- |bn IKC "f`|b i|t t|hcc hgl

|bn Nrnd~|isn F`hvl) bht vndng|my d`kn `~| c`v hls`dh|iga |bn iku`ti|i`g `c qbh| |bny g`q dhmm

dhui|hm cm`q khghankng| knht~vnt "DCKt) ~glnv dnv|hig divd~kt|hgdnt "@t|vy n| hm' 6585-

6588? IKC 6588h)' Chdnl qi|b |bn u`|ng|ihm lhkhan h t~llng t~van ig dhui|hm igcm`qt d`~ml

dh~tn- |bn IKC hva~nt- nknvaiga nd`g`kint khy fn j~t|icinl ig ig|v`l~diga d`g|v`mt ntundihmmy

`g |bn vitoy c`vkt `c c`vniag f`vv`qiga- |` uvnsng| h mhvan hgl ~gt~t|highfmn d~vvngdy

huuvndih|i`g hgl |` cngl `cc h d~vvngdy `v fhgoiga dvitit |bh| khy ngt~n'

\bn d`g|v`snvtihm htund| `c |bn IKCt u`ti|i`g d`gdnvgt |bn binvhvdbidhm huuv`hdb i|

uv`u`tnt`v |bn tnx~ngdn fy qbidb liccnvng| knht~vnt hvn |` fn ikumnkng|nl' IKC "6588h)-c`v nrhkumn- uv`u`tnt |` fvnho l`qg DCKt ig|` "i) vntilngdy+fhtnl DCKt "`c|ng dhmmnl dhui|hm

d`g|v`mt) hgl "ii) `|bnv DCKt- qbidb ig |~vg d`gtit| `c "h) uv~lng|ihm knht~vnt |bh| liccnvng|ih|n

|vhgthd|i`gt `g |bn fhtit `c d~vvngdy? hgl "f) `|bnvt' @g |bit fhtit- |bny t~aant| a~ilnmignt c`v

u`midykhonvt qb` hvn chdnl qi|b h t~van ig dhui|hm igcm`qt: "8) |bn civt| mign `c lncngtn it

khdv`nd`g`kid u`midint- t~db ht |iab|nv citdhm u`midy `v avnh|nv nrdbhgan vh|n cmnrifimi|y? "6) |bn

tnd`gl mign `c lncngtn it |hvan|nl DCKt |bh| l` g`| litdvikigh|n |vhgthd|i`gt `g |bn fhtit `c

vntilngdy? hgl "4) ht |bn mht| vnt`v|- vntilngdy+fhtnl DCKt khy fn ~tnl' DCKt k~t| hmt` fn

uv`u`v|i`ghm |` |bn tundicid khdv`nd`g`kid `v cighgdihm t|hfimi|y d`gdnvg h| bhgl' C`v nrhkumn-

vntilngdy+fhtnl DCKt khy fn huuv`uvih|n c`v cm`qt |bh| hvn g`| ig|nvknlih|nl fy vna~mh|nl

cighgdihm igt|i|~|i`gt? uv~lng|ihm knht~vnt hvn k`vn huuv`uvih|n c`v cm`qt |bh| hvn ig|nvknlih|nl

fy vna~mh|nl cighgdihm igt|i|~|i`gt'

Ig |bit binvhvdbidhm cvhknq`vo- |bn |ikiga `c k`siga cv`k m`qnv+|yun |` biabnv+|yun knht~vnt it

ln|nvkignl fy |bn unvdnisnl gh|~vn `c |bn uv`fmnk "qbn|bnv khdv`nd`g`kid `v uv~lng|ihm) ht

qnmm ht fy |bn hshimhfmn u`midy tuhdn "@t|vy n| hm' 6585)' Ic |bn uv`fmnk it khdv`nd`g`kid "c`v

qbidb gn| cm`qt hvn vnmnshg|)- khdv`nd`g`kid u`midy tb`~ml fn |bn civt| mign `c lncngtn? ic i| it

uv~lng|ihm "c`v qbidb av`tt cm`qt fnd`kn k`vn vnmnshg|)- uv~lng|ihm u`midint d`~ml fn |bn civt|

|` fn nkum`ynl' I| it `gmy qbng "i) |bn nd`g`ky d`gdnvgnl it `unvh|iga gnhv u`|ng|ihm- "ii) |bn

mnsnm `c vntnvsnt it hlnx~h|n- "iii) |bn nrdbhgan vh|n it g`| ~glnvshm~nl- hgl "is) |bn cm`qt hvn

mionmy |` fn |vhgti|`vy- ~tn `c vntilngdy+fhtnl DCKt "i'n'- dhui|hm d`g|v`mt) it j~t|icinl' \bn ~tn`c dhui|hm d`g|v`mt tb`~ml d`kn hc|nv |bn ~tn `c `|bnv |``mt bht fnng nrbh~t|nl- aisng |bn vito

|bh| |bny khy fn iku`tnl c`v fnaahv+|by+gniabf`v vnht`gt' @t|vy n| hm' "6588)- b`qnsnv- g`|n

|bh| qbng igcm`qt fyuhtt khvon|t hgl igt|i|~|i`gt- dhui|hm d`g|v`mt d`~ml fn |bn fnt| `u|i`g'

T`kn `fjnd| |` |bn h||nku| fy hg ig|nvgh|i`ghm `vahgizh|i`g |` nt|hfmitb h d`ln `c d`gl~d| c`v

dhui|hm cm`q khghankng|? ig uhv|id~mhv- |bny vnjnd| |bn g`|i`g |bh| h d`~g|vy dhg ~tn dhui|hm

d`g|v`mt `gmy ht h mht| vnt`v| hc|nv bhsiga nrbh~t|nl |bn k`vn d`gsng|i`ghm khdv`nd`g`kid

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

11/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

9

knht~vnt' Fh|it|h "6586)- c`v nrhkumn- hva~nt |bh| khdv`nd`g`kid knht~vnt hvn `c|ng g`|

t~cciding| |` lnhm qi|b h t~van ig dhui|hm igcm`qt hgl |bh| |bn fnaahv+|by+gniabf`v |yun nccnd| `c

dhui|hm d`g|v`mt bht fnng nrhaanvh|nl' Mionqitn- K`bhg "6586) uv`u`tnt |bh| DCKt tb`~ml fn

uhv| `c |bn g`vkhm |``moi| `c `snvhmm khdv`nd`g`kid khghankng|' \bntn kiab| igdm~ln |hrnt

hgl ~gvnk~gnvh|nl vntnvsn vnx~ivnkng|t "^VV)- tundihm midngtiga vnx~ivnkng|t `g nr|nvghmf`vv`qiga- hgl nsng `~|viab| miki|t `v fhgt `g c`vniag f`vv`qiga? |bny d`~ml d`snv hmm igcm`qt `v

kiab| liccnvng|ih|n fn|qnng liccnvng| |yunt hgl kh|~vi|int'

D`gtuid~`~tmy mhdoiga ig |bit litd~tti`g- b`qnsnv- it |bn gnnl "`v |bn mhdo |bnvn`c) |` khghan

dhui|hm `~|cm`qt' @t|vy n| hm' "6585- 6588) huunhv |` htt~kn |bh| d`g|v`mmiga igcm`qt q`~ml fn

t~cciding| |` k`lnvh|n dhui|hm `~|cm`qt- |bnvnfy ki|iah|iga |bn uv`dydmidhmi|y `c gn| c`vniag

f`vv`qiga' F~| qbng c`vniag mnglnvt hgl igsnt|`vt bnhl c`v |bn nri|- |bn tizn `c u`|ng|ihm

dhui|hm `~|cm`qt it aisng fy |bn nrit|iga t|`do `c c`vniag mihfimi|int' Ht ig|nvgh|i`ghm dvnli|`vt

lnmnsnvhan- hg nknvaiga khvon| nd`g`ky d`~ml nrunvingdn h chmm ig vito |`mnvhgdn- h |iab|ngiga

`c cighgdiga d`gt|vhig|t- hgl um~kkn|iga httn| uvidnt' C`vniag fhgot khy |bng d~| `cc dvnli|

mignt hgl vnc~tn |` v`mm `snv tb`v|+|nvk m`hgt? c`vniag igsnt|`vt khy dhtb ig |bniv b`mligat `c

f`glt hgl nx~i|int? m`dhm fhgot hgl `|bnv cighgdihm igt|i|~|i`gt khy m`tn hddntt |` am`fhm

qb`mnthmn c~gliga khvon|t' Ht h vnt~m|- |bn nd`g`ky ~glnv t|vhig it mionmy |` chdn tb`v|hant `c

vntnvsn d~vvngdy mix~ili|y- k`t|my ^T l`mmhv c~gliga- t|nkkiga cv`k |bn tbvigohan `c |bniv

t|`dot`c c`vniag mihfimi|int'

Qbng chdnl qi|b h khttisn `~|cm`q `c dhui|hm- qbh| tb`~ml |bn h~|b`vi|int `c nknvaiga khvon|

nd`g`kint l`0 \bny d`~ml qi|blvhq t`kn `v hmm `c |bn DCKt `g igcm`qt- |bn oiglt uv`u`tnl

fy @t|vy n| hm' "6585- 6588) hgl `|bnvt- qbidb khy qnmm t~ddnnl ig litd`~vhaiga |bn `~|cm`q `c

dnv|hig |yunt `c dhui|hm' \bit- b`qnsnv- qimm g`| uvnsng| |bn `~|cm`q `c |bn c`vniag mihfimi|int g`|

d`snvnl ~glnv |bn DCKt- igdm~liga c`vniag b`mligat `c l`knt|id f`glt- nx~i|int- hgl `|bnvlnvish|isn uv`l~d|t' \bn dhui|hm cm`q vnsnvthm khy dhmm c`v livnd| ig|nvsng|i`g `g |bn uhv| `c |bn

h~|b`vi|int |` d`g|v`m |bn `~|cm`q `c c`vniag dhui|hm' \bh| it |` thy- ic |bnvn it h gnnl c`v

d`g|v`mmiga dhui|hm igcm`qt- |bnvn it hmt` h gnnl c`v d`g|v`mmiga dhui|hm `~|cm`qt'

4' DHUI\HM HDD@^G\ MIFNVHMIZH\I@G IG HTNHG

4'8 Uhdn hgl Tnx~ngdiga `c Dhui|hm Hdd`~g| Mifnvhmizh|i`g

\bn ilnh |bh| dhui|hm hdd`~g| mifnvhmizh|i`g k~t| fn khghanl uv`unvmy c`vkt |bn fhtit `c |bn

gnq `v|b`l`ry |bh| nknvanl ig |bn hc|nvkh|b `c |bn dhui|hm hdd`~g| dvitnt `c |bn mh|n 8995t'

\bn gnq `v|b`l`ry chs`vt h avhl~hmit| huuv`hdb- nkubhtiziga |bn gnnl c`v tnx~ngdiga hgl c`v

nt|hfmitbiga uvnd`gli|i`gt "Itbii n| hm' 6556)' Qbimn |bnvn hvn g` tikumn v~mnt c`v tnx~ngdiga-

|bn fv`hl uvigdiumnt hvn |` u~vt~n khdv`nd`g`kid u`midint hgl t|v~d|~vhm vnc`vkt |bh| uv`k`|n

cighgdihm tnd|`v t|hfimi|y- qbimn avhl~hmmy mifnvhmiziga |bn dhui|hm hdd`~g| ht uvnd`gli|i`gt hvn

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

12/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

85

kn|' Nmnkng|t `c t`~gl khdv`nd`g`kid u`midint kiab| igdm~ln citdhm litdiumign- uv~lng|

nr|nvghm lnf| khghankng|- h cmnrifmn nrdbhgan vh|n- hgl |vhgtuhvngdy ig |bn d`gl~d| `c

k`gn|hvy hgl nrdbhgan vh|n u`midint' Cighgdihm u`midint k~t| fn lntiagnl |` uv`k`|n uv~lng|

vito khghankng|- t~uu`v|nl fy h t|v`ga dhui|hm fhtn- t|vid| litdm`t~vn vnx~ivnkng|t- hgl qnmm+

lntiagnl mix~ili|y khghankng|' \` lnsnm`u fv`hl- ncciding|- hgl mix~il l`knt|id cighgdihmkhvon|t q`~ml fn uhv|id~mhvmy iku`v|hg|'

Qi|big |bn d`g|nr| `c HTNHG- |bn HND Fm~nuvig| "~glnv Cvnnv Cm`q `c Dhui|hm) dhmmt c`v |bn

c`mm`qiga tundicid hd|i`gt ht uvnd`gli|i`gt c`v DHM: "i) hdbinsn avnh|nv bhvk`gizh|i`g ig dhui|hm

khvon| t|hglhvlt ig HTNHG ig |bn hvnht `c `ccnviga v~mnt c`v lnf| tnd~vi|int- litdm`t~vn

vnx~ivnkng|t hgl lit|vif~|i`g v~mnt? "ii) chdimi|h|n k~|~hm vnd`agi|i`g hvvhgankng| `v havnnkng|

c`v |bn dv`tt vnd`agi|i`g `c x~hmicidh|i`g hgl nl~dh|i`g hgl nrunvingdn `c khvon| uv`cntti`ghmt?

"iii) hdbinsn avnh|nv cmnrifimi|y ig mhga~han hgl a`snvgiga mhq vnx~ivnkng|t c`v tnd~vi|int

itt~hgdn? "is) ngbhgdn qi|bb`mliga |hr t|v~d|~vn- qbnvn u`ttifmn- |` uv`k`|n |bn fv`hlngiga `c

igsnt|`v fhtn ig HTNHG lnf| itt~hgdn? hgl "s) chdimi|h|n khvon| lvisng ncc`v|t |` nt|hfmitb

nrdbhgan hgl lnf| khvon| migohant- igdm~liga dv`tt+f`vlnv dhui|hm vhitiga hd|isi|int'

\bn Fm~nuvig|- c`v |bn mifnvhmizh|i`g `c dhui|hm k`snkng|t- bht c~v|bnvk`vn nt|hfmitbnl |bn

c`mm`qiga a~ilnmignt:

Ngt~viga hg `vlnvmy dhui|hm hdd`~g| mifnvhmizh|i`g d`gtit|ng| qi|b knkfnv d`~g|vint

gh|i`ghm hanglh hgl vnhligntt `c |bn nd`g`ky?

Hmm`qiga hlnx~h|n thcna~hvl hahigt| u`|ng|ihm khdv`nd`g`kid igt|hfimi|y hgl tyt|nkid

vito |bh| khy hvitn cv`k |bn mifnvhmizh|i`g uv`dntt- igdm~liga |bn viab| |` hl`u|

gndntthvy knht~vnt |` ngt~vn khdv`nd`g`kid t|hfimi|y? hgl

Ngt~viga |bn fngnci|t `c mifnvhmizh|i`g |` fn tbhvnl fy hmm HTNHG d`~g|vint'

Ig hlli|i`g |` |bntn fv`hl a~ilnmignt- |bn |iknmign `c shvi`~t knht~vnt bhsn fnng u~| c`v|b fy

|bvnn HTNHG cvhknq`vot `g dhui|hm hdd`~g| mifnvhmizh|i`g- ghknmy: "i) |bn HND T|vh|naid

Tdbnl~mn- |bv`~ab 658>? "ii) |bn HTNHG Dhui|hm Khvon| C`v~k "HDKC) Ikumnkng|h|i`g Umhg-

|bv`~ab 658>? hgl "iii) |bn Q`voiga D`kki||nn `g DHM "QD+DHM) Q`vo Umhg- |bv`~ab 658>' H

vnhliga `c |bntn l`d~kng|t t~aant|t |bh| g`|biga d`gdvn|n `v figliga bht yn| fnng havnnl `g'

Ig uhv|id~mhv- |bn HTNHG T|vh|naid Tdbnl~mn huunhvt |` fn x~i|n angnvhm- qbimn |bn QD+DHM

Q`vo Umhg it t|imm h| hg nhvmy t|han- qi|b mit|t `c tundicid v~mnt thil |` fn fniga uvnuhvnl' \bn

uvigdiumnt `c bhvk`gizh|i`g hgl k~|~hm vnd`agi|i`g hvn hls`dh|nl fy |bn HDKC

Ikumnkng|h|i`g Umhg ht h knhgt `c uv`k`|iga |bn vnai`ghm cm`q `c cighgdihm uv`l~d|t' I| it g`|dmnhv qbh| it ngsiti`gnl c`v |bn ynhvt fny`gl 658>- ht i| it ~gvnhmit|id |` nrund| c~mm dhui|hm

hdd`~g| mifnvhmizh|i`g |` fn hdbinsnl fy 658> ig hmm d`~g|vint'

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

13/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

88

4'6 Httnttiga Dhui|hm Hdd`~g| @unggntt

Ilng|icyiga hvnht qbnvn nrit|iga dhui|hm hdd`~g| vnt|vid|i`gt kiab| fn vnk`snl ig |bn d`kiga

ynhvt q`~ml vnx~ivn httnttiga |bn nrit|iga dhui|hm hdd`~g| `unggntt `c iglisil~hm knkfnv

d`~g|vint' H| mnht|- |bit qimm aisn hg iglidh|i`g `c b`q chv |bny k~t| a` |` hdbinsn DHM' H a``l

t|hv|iga u`ig| c`v |bit u~vu`tn it |bn iglnr `c dhui|hm hdd`~g| `unggntt lnsnm`unl hgl

unvi`lidhmmy ~ulh|nl fy Dbigg hgl I|` "6559) fhtnl `g |bn IKCt Hgg~hm Vnu`v| `g Nrdbhgan

Hvvhgankng|t hgl Nrdbhgan Vnt|vid|i`gt "Cia~vn 6)' Ht `c 6559- |bn dhui|hm hdd`~g| `unggntt

`c HTNHG d`~g|vint vhganl qilnmy- cv`k +8'2

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

14/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

86

H ln|himnl vnhliga `c |bn mh|nt| itt~n `c |bn IKCt Hgg~hm Vnu`v| `g Nrdbhgan Hvvhgankng|t

hgl Nrdbhgan Vnt|vid|i`gt"IKC 6588f) t~aant|t |bn c`mm`qiga cnh|~vnt `c |bn HTNHG dhui|hm

hdd`~g| vnaikn' Civt|- |b`~ab t`kn d`~g|vint hvn biabmy `ung- khgy t|imm khig|hig shvi`~t

vnt|vid|i`gt `g dhui|hm cm`qt' Tnd`gl- d`g|v`mt hvn |iab|nv `g `~|cm`qt c`v k`t| d`~g|vint' Ht

nknvaiga khvon| hgl lnsnm`uiga nd`g`kint- i| it g`| t~vuvitiga |bh| |bny bhsn h gn| nr|nvghmlnf|`v u`ti|i`g' Qbh| it t~vuvitiga it |bn tkhmm av`tt dvnli|`v u`ti|i`g ig t~db d`~g|vint ht

Igl`gntih "`gmy >. `c ALU- igdm~liga livnd|- u`v|c`mi` hgl `|bnv igsnt|kng|t)- |bn Ubimiuuignt

"83.)- hgl \bhimhgl "82.)'4

\bivl- hm|b`~ab hmm d`~g|vint nrdnu| Kyhgkhv bhsn hddnu|nl |bn `fmiah|i`gt ~glnv Hv|idmn SIII

`c |bn IKC Hv|idmnt `c Havnnkng| "|b~t havnniga g`| |` iku`tn vnt|vid|i`gt `g |bn khoiga `c

uhykng|t hgl |vhgtcnvt c`v d~vvng| hdd`~g| |vhgthd|i`gt)- khgy d`~g|vint khig|hig d~vvng|

hdd`~g|+vnmh|nl uhykng| vnt|vid|i`gt- t~db ht |bn vnuh|vih|i`g `v t~vvnglnv vnx~ivnkng|t hgl

t|vid| snvicidh|i`g uv`dnl~vnt c`v tnvsidn uhykng|t' C`~v|b- hmk`t| hmm d`~g|vint bhsn

vnt|vid|i`gt `g |bn `cctb`vn ~tn `c |bniv d~vvngdint- u`ttifmy ht h thcna~hvl hahigt| tund~mh|i`g'

Qbimn |bit it h mnai|ikh|n vnht`g- ic hmm d`~g|vint vnt|vid| |bn `cctb`vn ~tn `c |bniv d~vvngdint- i|

d`~ml hd| ht hg ikunlikng| |` |bn uv`k`|i`g `c vnai`ghm cighgdihm ig|navh|i`g'

\bn vnai`gt fiht |`qhvl igcm`qt bht bhl |bn nccnd| `c

litd`~vhaiga dhui|hm igcm`qt cv`k qi|big HTNHG- f~| bht hd|nl |` ngd`~vhan igcm`qt cv`k

hlshgdnl d`~g|vint `~|tiln |bn vnai`g'

Cic|b- khgy d`~g|vint umhdn k`vn vnt|vid|i`gt `g nr|nvghm f`vv`qiga |bhg u`v|c`mi` igcm`qt?

mionqitn- khgy- igdm~liga Tigahu`vn- umhdn t`kn vnt|vid|i`gt `g nr|nvghm mngliga- ntundihmmy ig

|bniv gh|i`ghm d~vvngdint' \bn h~|b`vi|int khy bhsn lvhqg h mntt`g cv`k |bn Htihg dvitit |bh|

tb`v|+|nvk fhgo f`vv`qiga it nhtimy vnsnvtifmn- f~| ig h fhgo+l`kigh|nl cighgdihm tyt|nk-

vnai`ghm cighgdihm ig|navh|i`g qimm g`| uv`avntt snvy chv ~gmntt fhgot hvn hmm`qnl |` l` |bniv

f~tigntt k`vn cvnnmy' Tir|b- khgy d`~g|vint miki| |bn hfimi|y `c igsnt|`vt |` bnlan c`vniagd~vvngdy vitot- igdm~liga |bn ~tn `c lnvish|isn |vhgthd|i`gt' Mnai|ikh|n bnlaiga c`v |vhln `v

igsnt|kng| u~vu`tnt hvn `c|ng hmm`qnl- f~| |`` k~db `c h aviu `g h~|`g`k`~t cighgdihm

|vhgthd|i`gt d`~ml miki| khvon| mix~ili|y hgl v~gt d`~g|nv |` ngd`~vhaiga cighgdihm ig|navh|i`g'

? khgy `c |bntn d`~g|vint qimm mionmy vn|hig t`kn- ic g`| hmm-

`c |bn vnt|vid|i`gt |bny g`q iku`tn `g dhui|hm |vhgthd|i`gt' HTNHG dhui|hm hdd`~g|

4\bntn g~kfnvt hvn `f|hignl cv`k |bn ig|nvgh|i`ghm igsnt|`v u`ti|i`gt `c |bntn d`~g|vint h| |bn ngl `c 6552- ht

vnu`v|nl ig IKC- Ig|nvgh|i`ghm Cighgdihm T|h|it|idt'

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

15/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

84

mifnvhmizh|i`g qimm fn hg `ga`iga uv`dntt `snv |bn d`kiga ynhvt- qi|b |bn ngl a`hm `c hdbinsiga

h biab lnavnn `c dhui|hm hdd`~g| `unggntt qbimn uvntnvsiga hlnx~h|n cighgdihm t|hfimi|y' Ig

k`t| d`~g|vint- |bnvnc`vn- |bnvn it mi||mn gnnl |` ig|v`l~dn hg ng|ivnmy gnq tn| `c dhui|hm cm`q

khghankng| knht~vnt' F~| i| it ~tnc~m |` d`gtilnv |bn |yunt `c DCKt |bh| |bn d`~g|vint khy

qhg| |` ig|v`l~dn `v vn|hig ig `vlnv |` khig|hig cighgdihm t|hfimi|y ig h biabmy mifnvhmiznlngsiv`gkng|- aisng |bn ~m|ikh|n vnx~ivnkng|t `c hg nd`g`kid d`kk~gi|y'

Qn uv`u`tn |bh| |bn c`mm`qiga |q` uvigdiumnt tb`~ml a~iln |bn tnmnd|i`g `c dhui|hm cm`q

khghankng| knht~vnt |` nkum`y qbng HTNHG bht t~ft|hg|ihmmy hdbinsnl dhui|hm hdd`~g|

mifnvhmizh|i`g:

G`g+vntilng| HTNHG nd`g`kid ng|i|int tb`~ml bhsn |bn thkn hddntt |` hmm gh|i`ghm

khvon|t qi|big HTNHG ht |bn vntilng| d`~g|nvuhv|t' \bit knhgt |bh| vntilngdy+fhtnl

knht~vnt tb`~ml fn hs`ilnl- nsng ic i| it u`ttifmn |` |vnh| g`g+gh|i`ghm HTNHG ng|i|int

k`vn chs`vhfmy |bhg g`g+HTNHG ng|i|int'

Ig |nvkt `c chdimi|h|iga |bn hfimi|y `c HTNHG+fhtnl ng|i|int |` l` f~tigntt hdv`ttHTNHG- |bny tb`~ml g`| fn t~fjnd|nl |` huuv`shm vnx~ivnkng|t c`v ngahaiga ig dhui|hm

|vhgthd|i`gt' \bit dhmmt c`v khvon|+fhtnl knht~vnt'

HTNHG k~t| havnn `g |bntn hgl `|bnv uvigdiumnt a`snvgiga qbidb dhui|hm cm`q khghankng|

knht~vnt hvn d`kuh|ifmn qi|b |bn HND'

^g|im t~db |ikn ht l`knt|id cighgdihm khvon|t fnd`kn t~cciding|my lnnu hgl vito khghankng|

toimmt c~mmy lnsnm`unl- u`ttifmn thcna~hvl knht~vnt d`~ml igdm~ln: "i) vnx~iviga dv`tt+f`vlnv

cm`qt |` fn nccnd|nl |bv`~ab h~|b`viznl l`knt|id ig|nvknlihvint?5 |`

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

17/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

8>

`c s~mgnvhfimi|y |` dvitit' \bn mnsy vitnt ht |bn kh|~vi|y igdvnhtnt- c`v nrhkumn: 5'6. c`v mntt

|bhg h ynhv hgl 5'5>. c`v k`vn |bhg cisn ynhvt' \b~t- |bn mnsy it ig|nglnl |` d~v|him ntundihmmy

tb`v|+|nvk nr|nvghm f`vv`qiga fy fhgot- ht q`~ml h |vhccid d`gant|i`g mnsy fn nrund|nl |`

k`lnvh|n v~tb b`~v |vhccid "Tbig hgl Tbig 6588)' \bn mnsint d`mmnd|nl hvn ~tnl |` c~gl h

c`vniag d~vvngdy mix~ili|y chdimi|y'\hfmn 6: Khdv`+uv~lng|ihm T|hfimi|y Mnsy ig |bn Vnu~fmid `c O`vnh- H~a~t| 6588

Dh|na`vy Lntdviu|i`g

Huumidhfmn c`vniagmihfimi|int

G`g+lnu`ti| c`vniag d~vvngdy mihfimi|y fhmhgdnt 8

Huumidhfmn igt|i|~|i`gt Hmm cighgdihm igt|i|~|i`gt

Vh|n iku`tnl

Mntt |bhg 5'>. ht ln|nvkignl fy |bn kh|~vi|y `c g`g+d`vnmihfimi|int? |bn a`snvgkng| dhg iku`tn h khrik~k t~vdbhvan `c

5'>. |bh| shvint hdd`vliga |` gn| dhui|hm igcm`qt? |bn `snvhmm mnsydhgg`| nrdnnl 8.

C~gl ~tn ^tnl |` t~uumy c`vniag d~vvngdy mix~ili|y ig |bn nsng| `c dvitit

D`mmnd|i`g hglkhghankng|

+T~unvsitiga hangdy: Kigit|vy `c T|vh|nay hgl Cighgdn+D`mmnd|i`g hgl khghankng| `c mnsy: Fhgo `c O`vnh

G`|n:8

\bn ubim`t`ubidhm x~nt|i`g `c qbn|bnv dhui|hm cm`q khghankng| knht~vnt tb`~ml `v d`~ml fn

~tnl ~glnv dnv|hig divd~kt|hgdnt it liccnvng| cv`k |bn uvhd|idhm itt~n `c qbn|bnv |bny hvn

nccnd|isn' \bn nccnd|isngntt `c d`g|v`mt ht h knhgt `c k`lnvh|iga dhui|hm igcm`qt bht m`ga fnnghgl qimm mionmy vnkhig h d`g|v`snvtihm |`uid- |` qbidb gni|bnv |bn`vy g`v nkuividhm nsilngdn bht

fnng hfmn |` uv`siln lncigi|isn hgtqnvt- ntundihmmy ig |bn d`g|nr| `c hg iku`ti|i`g `c d`g|v`mt fy

d`~g|vint |bh| hmvnhly bhsn h mhvanmy `ung dhui|hm hdd`~g|' Hc|nv hmm- |bn h~|b`vi|int |bnktnmsnt

k~t| lndiln ig |bn d`g|nr| `c |bniv `qg d`~g|vy qbh| q`vot fnt| hgl qbh| |bny k~t| |` l`

khon hgy knht~vn |bny hl`u| q`vo fn||nv' Nccnd|isngntt ~m|ikh|nmy lnunglt- hk`ga `|bnv

|bigat- `g |bn d`~g|vyt hlkigit|vh|isn dhuhdi|y- |bn qimmigagntt `c khvon| uhv|idiuhg|t |`

d`kumy qi|b |bn vnx~ivnkng|t- hgl |bn td`un c`v t~ft|i|~|i`g hgl divd~ksng|i`g- ht ln|nvkignl

fy |bn d`snvhan `c |bn knht~vn ht qnmm ht d`~g|vy+tundicid d`gli|i`gt "Bnfnvkninv n| hm'

6588)'

Lncignl ht c`vniag d~vvngdy mihfimi|int mntt c`vniag d~vvngdy lnu`ti|t- nrdm~liga dnv|hig mihfimi|int hvitiga

|nku`vhvimy cv`k c`vniag d~vvngdy |vhgthd|i`gt- qbidb hvn lnnknl g`| hoig |` f`vv`qiga'

Ig d`g|vht|- i| it liccid~m| |` d`gdnisn `c hg nccnd|isn knhgt `c d`g|v`mmiga dhui|hm `~|cm`qt ig |bn

nsng| `c h dvitit' Nsng ic t~db h knht~vn nrit|nl- c`vniag dvnli|`vt- hg|idiuh|iga i|t iku`ti|i`g-

q`~ml d`~g|nvhd| fy db``tiga tb`v|nv kh|~vi|int `v hs`iliga |bn d`~g|vy hm|`an|bnv ht |bn

lnt|igh|i`g c`v igsnt|kng|' Ig khgy nknvaiga nd`g`kint qb`tn d~vvngdint hvn g`|

ig|nvgh|i`ghmiznl- |bnvn it mi||mn hm|nvgh|isn |` hdd~k~mh|iga c`vniag nrdbhgan vntnvsnt |` lnhm

qi|b h tb`v|han `c vntnvsn d~vvngdy mix~ili|y t~llng dhui|hm `~|cm`qt q`~ml dh~tn' Igcm`q

d`g|v`mt hvn `c mi||mn ~tn ig |hkiga dhui|hm `~|cm`qt- ig uhv|id~mhv h| |bn |ikn `c h dvitit' Qbng hg

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

18/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

83

nd`g`ky it nga~mcnl ig h dvitit- cvnn cm`h|iga `c|ng chimt |` tnvsn ht |bn civt| mign `c lncngtn-

fndh~tn h mhvan lnuvndih|i`g `c |bn nrdbhgan vh|n |viaanvnl fy h dhui|hm `~|cm`q d`~ml u~| i| `g

hg ikum`tisn |vhjnd|`vy' \bn am`fhm qb`mnthmn c~gliga khvon| it mionmy |` cvnnzn ~u- hgl

ig|nvgh|i`ghm d`kknvdihm fhgot khy vnc~tn |` v`mm `snv |bniv tb`v|+|nvk vntnvsn d~vvngdy m`hgt

|` nknvaiga nd`g`kint- qbidb d`~ml t~ccnv k`vn ic c`vniag igsnt|`vt l~ku |bniv b`mligat `ctnd~vi|int h| h m`tt'

3

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

19/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

81

vh|iga hangdint- hgl k~|~hm vnd`agi|i`g d`~ml fn ~tnl fy h knkfnv d`~g|vy |` hmm`q i|t

vntilng|t cvnnmy |` igsnt| ig tnd~vi|int itt~nl ig `|bnv HTNHG d`~g|vint- nsng qbng i| t|imm

mhvanmy vnt|vid|t dhui|hm `~|cm`qt |` |bn vnt| `c |bn q`vml'1

Tnd`gl- aisng |bn filiga iku`ttifmn |vigi|y- |bn a`snvgkng| `c hg HTNHG knkfnv d`~g|vy

k~t| igdvnhtigamy db``tn fn|qnng h t|hfmn nrdbhgan vh|n- `g |bn `gn bhgl- hgl iglnunglng|k`gn|hvy u`midy- `g |bn `|bnv- ht dhui|hm k`fimi|y it mifnvhmiznl hdv`tt |bn vnai`g' Vnai`ghm

nrdbhgan vh|n hgl k`gn|hvy u`midy d``vligh|i`g it |bn `gmy qhy |` hmm`q avnh|nv nrdbhgan vh|n

cmnrifimi|y sit++sit |bn vnt| `c |bn q`vml qbimn vn|higiga ig|vh+HTNHG nrdbhgan vh|n t|hfimi|y- h

cnh|~vn |bh| qimm fnd`kn nsng k`vn iku`v|hg| ht |bn HND c~mmy d`knt ig|` c`vdn'

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

20/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

82

umhyiga |bn ig|nvknlihvy v`mn)- t` |bh| h dhtn dhg fn khln c`v uv`k`|iga uvish|n dhui|hm

`~|cm`qt ig `vlnv |` ki|iah|n huuvndih|i`g uvntt~vn' K`vn`snv- |bn htykkn|vy `c igcm`q hgl

`~|cm`q d`g|v`mt knhgt |bh|- ~gmntt t`kn HTNHG d`~g|vint fnd`kn tiagicidhg| dvnli|`vt |` |bn

vnt| `c HTNHG- g` knhgigac~m vnai`ghm cighgdihm ig|navh|i`g q`~ml |hon umhdn' @g fhmhgdn-

t`kn nhtiga `c `~|cm`q d`g|v`mt it dhmmnl c`v- ntundihmmy ig biabnv igd`kn knkfnv d`~g|vint'

>' D@GDM^TI@G

\bit uhunv bht ~tnl |bn nknvaiga HTNHG Nd`g`kid D`kk~gi|y ht h k`|ish|i`g |` nrum`vn

|bn itt~n `c dhui|hm cm`q khghankng| ig hg nd`g`kid d`kk~gi|y' \bn u`midy+lvisng uv`dntt `c

cighgdihm ig|navh|i`g ig HTNHG d`knt hahigt| |bn igdvnhtigamy qilnmy tbhvnl sinq |bh| ~tn `c

dhui|hm d`g|v`mt hgl `|bnv dhui|hm cm`q khghankng| knht~vnt tb`~ml fn uhv| `c |bn v`~|ign

u`midy |``moi| `c nknvaiga khvon| nd`g`kint' F~| |bn m`aid `c hg nd`g`kid d`kk~gi|y huunhvt

igd`kuh|ifmn qi|b nr|ngtisn d`g|v`mt `g vnai`ghm- ic g`| am`fhm- dhui|hm cm`qt' Aisng |bn m`qlnavnn `c dhui|hm hdd`~g| `unggntt ig t`kn HTNHG d`~g|vint- |bit knhgt |bh| t~ft|hg|ihm

dhui|hm hdd`~g| mifnvhmizh|i`g qimm bhsn |` |hon umhdn vnmh|isnmy x~idomy hdv`tt HTNHG' \bn

dbhmmngan it khln nsng avnh|nv fy |bn uvntngdn `c ig|nvgh|i`ghm cighgdihm dng|nvt qi|big |bn

vnai`g- qbidb d`~ml tnvsn ht h d`gl~i| |bh| likigitbnt |bn lit|igd|i`g fn|qnng vnai`ghm hgl

am`fhm cm`qt' HTNHG d`~g|vint |b~t chdn |bn ikunvh|isn `c litkhg|miga vnt|vid|i`gt `g dv`tt+

f`vlnv dhui|hm cm`qt qbimn khoiga t~vn |bh| |bny hvn uv`|nd|nl cv`k |bn s`mh|imi|y `c am`fhm

dhui|hm cm`qt' \bit |bny k~t| l` ig h khggnv d`gtit|ng| qi|b |bn ~m|ikh|n vnx~ivnkng|t `c hg

nd`g`kid d`kk~gi|y'

Hc|nv vnsinqiga |bn fngnci|t hgl vitot `c cvnn dhui|hm k`fimi|y- |bn nknvaiga d`gtngt~t `g |bn

gnnl c`v dhui|hm cm`q khghankng|- hgl |bn uhdn hgl tnx~ngdiga `c dhui|hm hdd`~g|

mifnvhmizh|i`g- qn bhsn httnttnl |bn dhui|hm hdd`~g| vnaikn `c iglisil~hm HTNHG d`~g|vint ig

`vlnv |` tnn b`q chv |bny k~t| k`sn' @~v d`gdm~ti`g it |bh| k`t| `c |bn d~vvng| hdd`~g| hgl

CLI vnmh|nl vnt|vid|i`gt tb`~ml fn vnk`snl ht x~idomy ht u`ttifmn? k`t| `c |bn dhui|hm igcm`q

d`g|v`mt d`~ml hmt` fn vnk`snl x~idomy qi|b`~| dvnh|iga hlli|i`ghm vitot? |b`~ab t`kn

j~lidi`~tgntt it vnx~ivnl uvish|n dhui|hm `~|cm`qt d`~ml hmt` fn uv`k`|nl- h| mnht| ig |bn k`vn

hlshgdnl HTNHG d`~g|vint- ic c`v g` `|bnv vnht`g |bhg |` uv`k`|n vnai`ghm cighgdihm

ig|navh|i`g' Nsng ig |bn k`t| `u|ikit|id tdnghvi`- g` HTNHG d`~g|vy "qi|b |bn u`ttifmn

nrdnu|i`g `c Tigahu`vn) it nrund|nl |` bhsn litkhg|mnl hmm dhui|hm hdd`~g| hgl vnmh|nl

vnt|vid|i`gt fy 658>' \bit knhgt |bh| HTNHG d`~g|vint bhsn mi||mn gnnl |` ig|v`l~dn hg ng|ivnmygnq tn| `c dhui|hm cm`q khghankng| knht~vnt ig `vlnv |` khig|hig cighgdihm t|hfimi|y'

Ig vn|higiga `v ig|v`l~diga |bntn hgl `|bnv knht~vnt- |bn ~m|ikh|n vnx~ivnkng|t `c hg

nd`g`kid d`kk~gi|y tnnk |` lid|h|n |bh| |bny fn khvon|+fhtnl hgl g`| vntilngdy+fhtnl'

\b`~ab h shvin|y `c knht~vnt hvn d`gdnishfmn- ht bht fnng nrunvikng|nl qi|b ig vndng|

k`g|bt fy tnsnvhm d`~g|vint |` lnhm qi|b h vngnqnl t~van ig dhui|hm igcm`qt- |bny hvn g`

uhghdnh' Ntundihmmy `g |bn `~|cm`q tiln- g` knht~vn it mionmy |` fn nccnd|isn' Vnai`ghm

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

21/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

89

d``unvh|i`g q`~ml fn ~tnc~m ig vnk`siga |bn t|iakh `c h ~gimh|nvhm ig|nvsng|i`g hgl ig

ngbhgdiga iglisil~hm d`~g|vy ncc`v|t k`vn angnvhmmy' HTNHG d`~ml- c`v nrhkumn- havnn `g |bn

lncigi|i`g `c h dvitit hgl hccivk |bn viab| `c h knkfnv d`~g|vy |` ig|v`l~dn hg nknvangdy

knht~vn ig |bn nsng| `c h dvitit' Vnai`ghm d``unvh|i`g q`~ml hmt` fn bnmuc~m ig dvnh|iga

u`|ng|ihm td`un c`v mnai|ikh|nmy |vnh|iga ig|vh+HTNHG hgl g`g+HTNHG cm`qt liccnvng|my- hglhmm`qiga d`~g|vint |` ig|v`l~dn avnh|nv nrdbhgan vh|n cmnrifimi|y ig vntu`gtn |` dhui|hm igcm`qt

qbimn vn|higiga ig|vh+HTNHG nrdbhgan vh|n t|hfimi|y- h cnh|~vn |bh| qimm fnd`kn nsng k`vn

iku`v|hg| ht |bn HND c~mmy d`knt ig|` c`vdn'

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

22/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

65

VNCNVNGDNT

Fh|it|h- U' G' 6586- \bn IKC- Dhui|hm Hdd`~g| Vna~mh|i`g- hgl Nknvaiga Khvon| Nd`g`kint'

Ig: Vna~mh|iga Am`fhm Dhui|hm Cm`qt c`v M`ga+v~g Lnsnm`ukng|- nli|nl fy O' U'

Ahmmhabnv- T' Avicci|b+J`gnt- hgl J' H' @dhku`' Uhvlnn Dng|nv c`v |bn T|~ly `c |bn

M`ganv+Vhgan C~|~vn- F`t|`g ^gisnvti|y- 94856'

Fiobdbhglhgi- T'- hgl T' Tbhvkh- 6558- Bnvl Fnbhsi`v ig Cighgdihm Khvon|t' Ig|nvgh|i`ghm

K`gn|hvy C~gl T|hcc Uhunvt'

Bhfnvkninv- O'- H' O`ongygn- hgl D' Fhfh- 6588' \bn Nccnd|isngntt `c Dhui|hm D`g|v`mt hgl

Uv~lng|ihm U`midint ig Khghaiga Mhvan Igcm`qt' IKC T|hcc Litd~tti`g G`|n 888

7/31/2019 Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital account Liberalization

23/23

HLFI Q`voiga Uhunv 412 Uhvo hgl \hohai

68

Itbii- T'- O' Bhfnvkninv- J' I' Dhghmnt+Ovimjngo`- F' Mh~vngt- J' Mnik`gn- hgl J' Shlhtz- 6556'

Dhui|hm Hdd`~g| Mifnvhmizh|i`g hgl Cighgdihm Tnd|`v T|hfimi|y' IKC @ddhti`ghm Uhunv G`'

688'

O`tn- K' H'- N' Uvhthl- O' V`a`cc- hgl T'+J' Qni' 6559' Cighgdihm Am`fhmizh|i`g: H Vnhuuvhithm'

Ig|nvgh|i`ghm K`gn|hvy C~gl T|hcc Uhunvt>3: 236'

O`tn- K' H'- N' T' Uvhthl- hgl H' \hym`v' 6559' \bvntb`mlt ig |bn Uv`dntt `c Ig|nvgh|i`ghm

Cighgdihm Ig|navh|i`g' GFNV Q`voiga Uhunv G`' 8