Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture. P.K. Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi, India. Global climate change. Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74 o C during last 100 years - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture
P.K. Aggarwal
Indian Agricultural Research InstituteNew Delhi, India
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) increase, caused by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons. Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100 AD. Greater increase in rabi Precipitation likely to increase in kharif Snow cover is projected to contract More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.
Global climate change
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change. (Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)
Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change. (Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)
Source: IPCC 2007
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
What is the contribution of different sectors in India to climate change? (Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in India)
What is the contribution of different sectors in India to climate change? (Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in India)
Industrial processes
8%
Wastes2%
Land use changes
1%
Agriculture28%
Energy61%
Source: India’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004
Fossil fuel used in agriculture considered in energy sector
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h Rice cultivation
23%
Manure management
5%
Emission from soils12%
Enteric fermentation
59%
Crop residues1%
Source: India’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004
What sectors of agriculture in India contribute to climate change?What sectors of agriculture in India contribute to climate change?
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agricultureProjected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture
Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100.
Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers could plant in time.
Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard
Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agricultureProjected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture
Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N.America, and negative impacts on us
Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production
Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Adaptation and mitigation framework: Need to consider emerging scenarioAdaptation and mitigation framework: Need to consider emerging scenario
Greater demand for (quality) food; yields need to increase by 30-50% by 2030
Increasing urbanization and globalization Increasing competition from other sectors
for land, energy, water and capital
Climate change a continuous process; greater focus on short-term actions on adaptation and mitigation
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Key adaptation strategiesKey adaptation strategies
1. Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks
2. Intensifying food production systems
3. Improving land and water management
4. Enabling policies
5. Strengthening adaptation research
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Sequestering soil carbon and mitigating GHGsSequestering soil carbon and mitigating GHGs
Addition of organic manures, minimal tillage, agro-forestry
Alternate drying in irrigated paddies
Management practices to increase nitrogen use efficiency
Increasing fuel efficiency in agri. machines
Improved management of livestock diet
These strategies have costs and other implications
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Facilitating mechanisms for payments to farmers for carbon sequestrationFacilitating mechanisms for payments to farmers for carbon sequestration
CDM does not specifically include carbon sequestration and mitigation in agriculture
Agricultural GHG mitigation options are cost-competitive
If included in future agreements, would also lead to better soil fertility and higher income for the farmers in addition to the primary goal of carbon sequestration.
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
ConclusionsConclusions
Climate change is a reality Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses due to
heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability
Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts
These need research, funding, and policy support Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown
but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher
Start with ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
New initiatives of ICARNew initiatives of ICAR
Thrust areas prioritized based on consultation
A Network - ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climatic Change’ launched in 2004
Network expanded in 11th plan with 23 centers
Multi-Disciplinary Expert Group established for planning and monitoring
Climate change identified as a priority area for National Agricultural Innovations Project (NAIP) funding
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Adaptation framework for South Asia: Assist farmers to cope with current climatic risksAdaptation framework for South Asia: Assist farmers to cope with current climatic risks
Improving collection and dissemination of weather related information
Establishing a regional early warning system of climatic risks/disasters
Promoting insurance for climatic risk management
Strengthening pest surveillance and forecasting mechanisms
Facilitating establishment of community partnership in food, forage and seed banks
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Adaptation framework for South Asia: Improve land, water and forests managementAdaptation framework for South Asia: Improve land, water and forests management
Implementing strategies for water conservation and use efficiency
Managing coastal ecosystems Increasing the penetration of
resource conserving technologies Exploiting the irrigation and manure
potential of treated wastewaters Forests management
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Adaptation framework for South Asia: Enabling policies and regional cooperationAdaptation framework for South Asia: Enabling policies and regional cooperation
Mainstreaming adaptation perspectives in current policy considerations
Providing financial incentives for resource conservation
Establishing regional food security programs
Raising capacity in global climate change assessments
Securing finances and technologies for adaptation
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Several global funds for adaptation and mitigation; tap these funds for ‘climate proofing’ of food supplies in vulnerable regions Climate stress response fund Adaptation related infrastructure- e.g. food banks Premiums for climate risk coverage Payments to farmers for carbon sequestration/
environmental services Knowledge / technology provision of adaptation
strategies, including germplasm / genes Capacity building
Adaptation framework for South Asia: Secure global funds and technologies for adaptationAdaptation framework for South Asia: Secure global funds and technologies for adaptation
Ind
i an C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l I n
dia
n C
ounci
l of
Ag
r icu
ltura
l R
ese
arc
h
Rese
arc
h
Assess regional impacts on crops, livestock, fisheries, pests, and microbes
Evolve ‘adverse climate tolerant’ genotypes and land use systems
Evaluating the biophysical and economic potential of various adaptation strategies
Study dynamics of pest movements and virulence Re-examine water and fertilizer management for
adaptation and mitigation Compile a compendium of indigenous, traditional
knowledge and explore its suitability for climate change adaptation
Adaptation framework for South Asia:
Strengthen research on adaptationAdaptation framework for South Asia:
Strengthen research on adaptation
