Mainstreet Technologies - Alberta Issues May

The poll surveyed a random sample of 3,018 Alberta residents by Smart IVR on May 25th, 2015.

Mainstreet surveyed a mix of landlines and cell phones. Margin of error +/- 1.78%, 19/20.

ALBERTA ISSUES[MAY 2015]

ALBERTANS BACK ROYALTY REVIEW, MAJORITY OPPOSES CARBON TAX

May 27th, 2015. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of 3,018 Albertans finds 51% opposed to a carbon tax while 65% back a royalty review. The poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 1.78%, 19/20. It is the first monthly Alberta Issues poll since Mainstreets extensive coverage of the 2015 Alberta Election.

The trend in Alberta continues to show that a majority are much more optimistic about their own finances than that of the province as a whole, this was the case prior to Budget 2015 and Election 2015. Overall optimism in both personal finances and provincial finances has increased since the election of Premier Notley, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies.

A majority of Albertans support a royalty review and think Alberta should increase royalties. This is good news for the Notley government but not good news for the oil and gas industry. With oil prices remaining below $60 per barrel, new investments in the Alberta oil patch may be risky in the short term until the new royalty is determined. In the long term, it's unlikely this will aect the industry.

Approval for Premier Notley is very high; over 6 in 10 people indicated they approve of the new Premier, with almost 4 in 10 indicating "strong approval". This is a very strong number for a Premier who was recently elected by 41% of the popular vote.

A carbon tax continues to be widely unpopular across Alberta despite its potential for helping to fill the deficit gap left by plummeting oil prices in late 2014, he finished.

Highlights:- 62% approve of Premier Notley, approval jumps to 75% in Edmonton- 43% oppose a PC-Wildrose Merger; 34% oppose a Liberal-Alberta merger- 65% support a royalty review, 46% say rates should go up- 51% oppose a carbon tax, 42% support it

-30-For more information:David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected] Available for interview from Toronto:Quito Maggi, [email protected]

DetailsThe poll surveyed a random sample of 3,018 Alberta residents by Smart IVR on May 25th, 2015. Mainstreet polled a mixture of home phones and cell phones.

About Mainstreet TechnologiesMainstreet Technologies is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election and Februarys by-election in Sudbury.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?

BREAKDOWNS18-3436%29%13%16%6%295

35-4926%30%16%18%9%469

50-6440%21%11%12%15%967

65+43%24%6%11%15%1287

Female36%27%12%14%10%1572

Male35%26%13%16%10%1446

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE


REST OF AB31%27%14%16%12%1042

CALGARY37%25%13%16%10%1026

EDMONTON47%28%8%10%7%950

62%

28%

10%

Total ApprovalTotal Disapproval

Not Sure

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of the Alberta economy?

BREAKDOWNS18-3447%42%12%295

35-4939%54%8%469

50-6439%46%15%967

65+39%37%23%1287

Female44%44%13%1572

Male39%47%14%1446

OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURESAMPLE


REST OF AB40%47%14%1042

CALGARY45%43%12%1026

EDMONTON41%45%13%950

May

201

5Ja

nuar

y 201

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

41%

45%

13%

24%

49%

27%

Optimistic Pessimistic Not Sure

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?

BREAKDOWNS18-3452%26%22%295

35-4946%33%21%469

50-6454%29%17%967

65+56%22%21%1287

Female53%26%22%1572

Male50%31%19%1446



REST OF AB51%29%20%1042

CALGARY53%26%21%1026

EDMONTON51%28%21%950

May

201

5Ja

nuar

y 201

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

52%

28%

20%

48%

28%

24%

Optimistic Pessimistic Not Sure

Do you think Crude Oil Prices will increase, decrease or stay the same in the next 12 months?

BREAKDOWNS18-3444%40%8%8%295

35-4930%51%11%9%469

50-6430%46%14%9%967

65+37%40%15%8%

1287

Female35%44%12%9%

1572

Male36%45%11%8%

1446

INCREASESTAY THE SAMEDECREASENOT SURESAMPLE


REST OF AB36%43%12%9%

1042

CALGARY37%45%10%8%

1026

EDMONTON33%48%10%8%950

May

201

5Ja

nuar

y 201

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

36%

45%

11%

9%

46%

30%

14%

10%

Increase Decrease Stay the same Not Sure

Thinking about the Wildrose party and the Progressive Conservative party, do you support or oppose a merger?

BREAKDOWNS18-3423%29%14%17%17%295

35-4917%30%14%25%14%469

50-6416%13%19%38%15%967

65+14%17%20%33%15%1287

Female17%23%16%27%17%1572

Male20%25%16%27%13%1446

STRONGLY SUPPORTSOMEWHAT SUPPORTSOMEWHAT OPPOSESTRONGLY OPPOSENOT SURESAMPLE


REST OF AB19%23%16%27%15%1042

CALGARY16%25%16%27%15%1026

EDMONTON18%24%17%26%16%950

May

201

5De

cem

ber 2

014

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

42%

43%

15%

33%

58%

10%

Support Oppose Not Sure

Thinking about the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta Party, do you support or oppose a merger?

BREAKDOWNS18-3412%23%3%

24%38%295

35-4911%23%5%

29%32%469

50-6412%17%10%29%32%967

65+11%14%9%32%34%1287

Female11%21%6%27%35%1572

Male12%19%6%

29%34%1446



REST OF AB12%20%6%27%35%1042

CALGARY11%21%7%

30%32%1026

EDMONTON10%22%6%27%35%950

31%

34%

34%

SupportOpposeNot Sure

Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty rates for oil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?

BREAKDOWNS18-3436%31%14%15%4%295

35-4938%25%14%16%6%469

50-6443%21%9%

20%8%967

65+41%24%12%14%9%

1287

Female40%25%13%16%7%

1572

Male38%27%13%17%6%

1446



REST OF AB36%28%14%15%7%

1042

CALGARY42%24%10%19%6%

1026

EDMONTON43%23%12%16%6%950

65%

29%

6%

Approve

Disapprove

Not Sure

From everything you have seen, heard or read, should Albertas royalty rates for oil, the oil sands and natural gas production go up, stay the same, or go down?

BREAKDOWNS18-3450%34%5%11%295

35-4951%30%6%13%469

50-6440%34%8%18%967

65+40%35%9%17%1287

Female46%33%7%14%1572

Male47%33%6%14%1446



REST OF AB47%32%7%14%1042

CALGARY46%33%6%14%1026

EDMONTON46%34%7%14%950

46%

33%

7%

14%

Increase

Stay The Same

Decrease

Not Sure

Of these two options, should Alberta energy companies pay more for royalties, or pay more in fees for greenhouse gas emissions?

BREAKDOWNS18-3427%36%26%11%295

35-4929%26%34%12%469

50-6433%25%23%20%967

65+36%25%17%21%1287

Female31%27%25%17%1572

Male30%30%27%13%1446

PAY MORE IN ROYALTIESPAY MORE BASED ON EMMISSIONSNEITHERNOT SURESAMPLE

PAY MORE IN ROYALTIESPAY MORE BASED ON EMMISSIONSNEITHERNOT SURESAMPLE

REST OF AB28%31%25%15%1042

CALGARY36%24%27%14%1026

EDMONTON31%26%28%16%950

30%

29%

26%

15%

Pay More In RoyaltiesPay More Based On Emissions

NeitherNot Sure

And, do you approve or disapprove of a carbon tax that would be paid by both business and consumers?

BREAKDOWNS18-3414%29%20%33%3%295

35-4912%29%19%35%5%469

50-6421%23%15%30%10%967

65+20%20%15%35%10%1287

Female17%26%18%31%7%

1572

Male16%27%17%35%6%

1446



REST OF AB16%28%17%33%7%

1042

CALGARY16%25%19%34%6%

1026

EDMONTON17%24%18%34%7%950

42%

51%

7%

Approve

Disapprove

Not Sure

SCRIPT

Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Not sure

Q2. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of the Alberta economy?

Optimistic Pessimistic Not sure

Q3. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?


Q4. Do you think Crude Oil Prices will increase, decrease or stay the same in the next 12 months?

Crude Oil Prices will increase Crude Oil Prices will stay the same Crude Oil Prices will decrease Not sure

Q5. Thinking about the Wildrose party and the Progressive Conservative party, do you support or oppose a merger?

Strongly support a merger Somewhat support a merger Somewhat oppose a merger Strongly oppose a merger Not sure

Q6. Thinking about the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta Party, do you support or oppose a merger?


Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty rates for oil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?

Strongly approve of a royalty review Somewhat approve of a royalty review Somewhat disapprove of a royalty review Strongly disapprove of a royalty review Not sure

Q8. From everything you have seen, heard or read, should Albertas royalty rates for oil, the oil sands and natural gas production go up, stay the same, or go down?

Rates should go up Rates should stay the same Rates should go down Not sure

Q9. Of these two options, should Alberta energy companies pay more for royalties, or pay more in fees for greenhouse gas emissions?

Energy companies should pay more in royalties Energy companies should pay more based on greenhouse gas emissions Neither Not sure

Q10. And, do you approve or disapprove of a carbon tax that would be paid by both business and consumers?


SCRIPT (CONT.)

Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?


Q2. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of the Alberta economy?


Q3. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?


Q4. Do you think Crude Oil Prices will increase, decrease or stay the same in the next 12 months?

Crude Oil Prices will increase Crude Oil Prices will stay the same Crude Oil Prices will decrease Not sure

Q5. Thinking about the Wildrose party and the Progressive Conservative party, do you support or oppose a merger?


Q6. Thinking about the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta Party, do you support or oppose a merger?


Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty rates for oil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?

Strongly approve of a royalty review Somewhat approve of a royalty review Somewhat disapprove of a royalty review Strongly disapprove of a royalty review Not sure

Q8. From everything you have seen, heard or read, should Albertas royalty rates for oil, the oil sands and natural gas production go up, stay the same, or go down?

Rates should go up Rates should stay the same Rates should go down Not sure

Q9. Of these two options, should Alberta energy companies pay more for royalties, or pay more in fees for greenhouse gas emissions?

Energy companies should pay more in royalties Energy companies should pay more based on greenhouse gas emissions Neither Not sure

Q10. And, do you approve or disapprove of a carbon tax that would be paid by both business and consumers?


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Mainstreet Technologies - Alberta Issues May