Mainstreet - Calgary Greenway

8/19/2019 Mainstreet - Calgary Greenway

1/14

[MARCH 11, 2016]

#YYCGREENWAY

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 523 Calgary Greenway voters by Smart IVR™ on Ma9th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 4.26%imes out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canad

Census.

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM MST, MARCH 12, 2016PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.


2/14

PCs LEAD GREENWAY BUT NDP, WILDROSE & LIBERALS IN CONTENTION

March 12, 2016 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party leading CalgGreenway - but a breakdown of the numbers shows a potential 4 way race. The Mainstreet/Postmedia has a margin of error of +/- 4.26%, 19 times out of 20.

It looks like a four way race may be underway in Calgary Greenway with a by election less than two weaway,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research “. It appears that the PC candidate has a cead, but with a 4 point margin of error, this could be a lot closer than it appears.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the second place NDP is just 3 points above the 4th place Liberal pwith a strong Wildrose Party showing just two points back of the NDP.

Among voters ‘certain’ to vote the race is tight with the PCs and NDP at 26% and the Wildrose Party at 2

While the Liberals are only at 13% with ‘Certain’ voters they make up for it by taking 42% of those ‘likelyvote.

Rachel Notley’s approval in Calgary Greenway is substantially better than previous province wide resumonth ago. Total approval is 42% vs 42% total disapproval, these results should be encouraging for

Premier and the NDP.”

The economy is by far the largest factor affecting voters in Calgary Greenway with 47% of respondendicating it would be a factor in deciding their vote.”

Calgary Greenway voters blame the economic woes of the Province primarily on the prolonged low

prices (rightfully so) followed closely by an over reliance on Oil. A smaller percentage of voters place blame with the current NDP government (19%) and the previous PC government (11%).”

This by election may have province wide implications as the PCs appear poised to hold the seat previoheld by Manmeet Bhullar. A PC win could stall talks to unite the right. A combined Liberal and NDP v

would surpass both the Wildrose and PCs. If the NDP can reproduce their success in attracting Libvoters from 2015, they could win this by election. Such a win would be good news for Rachel Notley whas faced increased criticism as the economy continues to under-perform,” he finished.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levelgovernment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling

n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.


3/14

PC

NDP

Wildrose

Liberal

Green

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Sample

UndecidedNDP Wildrose PC Liberal Green

If the provincial by electionwere held today,which candidate

would you support?

25%

19%

19%

25%

0%

12%

65

25%

13%

33%

18%

2%

9%

105

16%

22%

22%

13%

2%

24%

157

15%

28%

39%

3%

0%

15%

196

27%

18%

27%

16%

2%

10%

237

16%

20%

27%

18%

1%

19%

286

All Decided + Leaning

2 2 %

1 9 %

2 7 %

1 7 %

1 %

1 4 %

2 4 %

2 2 %

3 1 %

2 1 %

1 %


4/14

And which Party are youleaning towards voting for?

[Undecided Only]

1%8%

13%

14%

64%



5/14

Economy

Taxes

Energy

Education

Healthcare

Ethics

Environment

Something Else

Not Sure

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

And, which of these is the mostimportant issue in deciding your vote

in the provincial by election?

56%

12%

13%

13%

0%

0%

6%

0%

0%

48%

10%

12%

8%

8%

2%

2%

2%

8%

48%

14%

10%

4%

9%

4%

0%

4%

9%

21%

13%

10%

5%

14%

4%

1%

8%

23%

50%

8%

11%

7%

7%

2%

6%

3%

5%

44%

17%

11%

9%

5%

2%

0%

2%

10%

Not Sure7%

S o m e t h i n g E l s e

2 %

E n v i r o n m

e n t

3 %Healthcare

6%

Education8%

Energy11%

Taxes12%

Economy47%

E t h i c s

2 %

EconomyTaxes

EnergyEducation

HealthcareEthics

Environment

Something ElseNot Sure

47%12%11%8%6%2%

3%

2%7%


6/14

And, do you approve or disapprove of thway Rachel Notley is handling her job a

Premier?

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

19%

31%

12%

19%

19%

18%

28%

7%

36%

12%

13%

20%

16%

33%

18%

15%

10%

16%

41%

17%

29%

24%

6%

29%

12%

5%

26%

17%

31%

20%

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

Total

17%

25%

12%

30%

16%

42%

42%

16%


7/14

Alberta is in the midst of an economicdownturn. In your opinion, which of thefollowing is the primary reason for the

current state of the provincial economy

Low Price of Oil

Reliance on Oil

Oil Companies

Current NDP Gov.

Previous PC Gov.

Current Liberal Gov.

Previous Tory Gov.

Not Sure

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Femal

13%

38%

6%

19%

13%

6%

0%

6%

26%

26%

5%

21%

13%

3%

2%

5%

27%

26%

9%

13%

10%

4%

1%

11%

25%

22%

4%

25%

4%

6%

1%

12%

26%

29%

3%

22%

10%

5%

2%

3%

17%

30%

9%

16%

12%

4%

0%

12%

NotSure

8%

Liberal Gov5%

PC Gov11%

NDP Gov19%

O i l C o m p a n i e s

6 %

Oil Reliance29%

Low Oil21%

Low OilOil Reliance

Oil Companies

NDP GovPC Gov

Liberal GovTory GovNot Sure

21%29%6%

19%11%

5%1%8%


8/14

LIKELYHOOD TO VOTEvs.

PARTY SUPPORT

NDP

Wildrose

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Certain Likely Might Unlikely

26%

25%

26%

13%

1%

9%

10%

17%

11%

42%

1%

18%

19%

14%

39%

6%

0%

22%

25%

8%

31%

18%

2%

16%

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0Certain Likely Might Unlikely



9/14

TOP ISSUEvs.

PARTY SUPPORT

NDP

Wildrose

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Economy Energy Healthcare Taxes

28%

15%

26%

19%

0%

12%

17%

39%

31%

3%

0%

10%

17%

21%

24%

10%

0%

28%

4%

39%

29%

3%

0%

25%

Economy

Energy

Healthcare

Taxes

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

28% 15% 26% 19% 12%

17% 39% 31% 10%

17% 21% 24% 10% 28%

39% 29% 25%



10/14

NOTLEY APPROVALvs.

PARTY SUPPORT

Approve

Disapprove

Not Sure

NDP Wildrose PC UD

90%

8%

2%

11%

68%

20%

18%

63%

19%

27%

33%

39%

NDP Wildrose

PC Undecided

Approve Disapprove Not Sure


11/14

BLAMEvs.

PARTY SUPPORT

NDP

Wildrose

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Oil Reliance NDP Gov. PC Gov.Oil Price

37%

17%

26%

11%

3%

7%

24%

10%

18%

30%

0%

18%

4%

46%

40%

3%

0%

8%

5%

4%

19%

35%

0%

36%

Oil Price

Oil Reliance

NDP Gov

PC Gov

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

37% 17% 26% 11% 7%

24% 10% 18% 30% 18%

46% 40% 8%

19% 35% 36%



12/14

If the provincial by election were held today, which candidate would you support?

Roop Rai of the NDP led by Rachel NotleyDevinder Toor of the Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean

Prab Gill of the Progressive Conservatives led by Ric McIvorKhalil Karbani of the Liberals led by David Swann

Thana Boonlert of the provincial Green Party led by Janet Keeping

Undecided

And, which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the provincial by election? IsJobs and the Economy, Taxes and Government Finances, Energy Policy and the Royalty Review,

Education and Schools, Health Care, Ethics within Government, the Environment or Something Else

Jobs and the Economy

Taxes and Government FinancesEnergy Policy and the Royalty Review

Education and SchoolsHealth Care

Ethics within GovernmentEnvironment

Something ElseNot sure

And, do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly DisapproveNot Sure

Alberta is in the midst of an economic downturn. In your opinion, which of the following is the prima

reason for the current state of the provincial economy? Low oil prices, too much reliance on the oiindustry, management of the oil companies, the current NDP government, the previous Progressive

Conservative government, the current Federal Liberal Government, or the previous Federal

Conservative Government.

Low oil prices is mainly to blameToo much reliance on the oil industry is mainly to blame

Management at the oil companies is mainly to blameThe current provincial NDP government is mainly to blame

The previous provincial Progressive Conservative government is mainly to blameThe current federal Liberal government is mainly to blame

The previous federal Conservative government is mainly to blameNot sure

SCRIPT


13/14

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


14/14

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber

government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major

government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

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Mainstreet - Calgary Greenway