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8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
2/16
LIBERALS SLIDE, PCs LEAD AS ELECTION NEARS END
April 7, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the Manitoba Liberals sliding while thePC party continues to lead the poll - now with their supporters more locked in than ever before. TheMainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.28%, 19 times out of 20.
We have seen a very poorly run Liberal campaign this election” said Quito Maggi, President of MainstreetResearch. “For a while now we’ve been wondering when a Liberal slide might occur. We thought it wouldake the televised debate for there to be signicant movement, but a series of missteps have now caughtp to the Liberal leader.”
Among Decided and Leaning Voters (province wide): PCs 50% (+5%), NDP 24% (+1%), Liberals 17% (-7),
Greens 9% (+1%)The Liberals have dropped candidates and are trying to be too clever by half. A candidate’s mangledemark about closing hospitals was labeled intentional, we were told it was in order to gain publicity. Afterrecent e-mail that appeared to be intended solely for Liberal candidates leaked to the press, we were told
t was meant to show the Liberals were transparent and open. We could continue to catalogue the misstepsere but why go on? The Liberals are now having their local candidates make platform announcements,iven the circumstances this isn’t a bad idea. Their silver lining is they are the top second choice of PC and
NDP supporters.”
This week we saw the Saskatchewan NDP wiped out - if support for the PC party in Winnipeg holds,Manitoba‘s NDP will meet the same fate. PC Party support is now stronger, 83% say they are locked in and
will now not switch their vote. That’s up 7% from our last poll. Meanwhile Liberal support is weaker thanefore and Liberal switcher favour the PCs slightly more than the PCs.”
Over the last few weeks we have been able to observe PC support in Winnipeg. We see no indication thatt is conned to a certain geographic area. PC support is wide and deep. The NDP are in an unenviableituation, there may not be much they can do, it’s now time to shore up as many of their incumbents as theyan and hope for major missteps from the PCs” he nished.
About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
overnment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of publicpinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rmn several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the onlyolling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30-
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protectedby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support? (Manitoba)
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 5
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support? (Winnipeg)
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 5
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support? (Rest of Manitoba)
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 5
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support?
PC
NDP
Liberal
Green
Undecided
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
Sample
Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB
PC
NDP
Liberal
Green
Undecided
Sample
PC
19%
39%
13%
7%
22%
1,844
24%
37%
11%
7%
21%
1,032
12%
44%
15%
6%
23%
812
17%
29%
18%
11%
24%
233
22%
39%
11%
6%
23%
399
17%
48%
10%
5%
20%
567
23%
44%
11%
2%
20%
645
19%
41%
10%
8%
22%
857
20%
38%
15%
5%
22%
987
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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And which party are youleaning towards voting for?
[Undecided Only]
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
6%
15%
9%
6%64%
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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DECIDED AND LEANING
NDP PC Liberal Green
5
0
5
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 5
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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DECIDED AND LEANINGWINNIPEG
NDP PC Liberal Green
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 5
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
10/16
DECIDED AND LEANINGREST OF MANITOBA
NDP PC Liberal Green
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 5
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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If the provincial electionwere held today,which party
would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]
PC
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
21%
40%
25%
15%
207
28%
47%
17%
9%
335
21%
60%
12%
7%
496
28%
53%
14%
5%
572
23%
51%
15%
12%
770
25%
48%
20%
7%
837
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Sample
Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB
24%
50%
17%
9%
1,607
29%
46%
16%
9%
907
16%
55%
20%
9%
700
NDP
PC
Liberal
Green
Sample
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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Support Strength
StrongMight Change
Not Sure
83%13%4%
PC
StrongMight Change
Not Sure
63%27%9%
NDP
StrongMight Change
Not Sure
51%38%10%
Liberals
83%
13%
4%
63%
27%
9%
51%
38%
10%
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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Second Choice
Liberal Voters Green Party Voters
NDP VotersPC Voters
16%
42%9%
33%
24%
58%
11%
8%
30%
26%
12%
33%
12%
6%
33%
49%
UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James BeddomeUndecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,or is there a chance you will change your mind before Election Day?
Strong SupporterMight Change Mind
Don’t Know
And who would be your second choice?
NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome
Undecided
SCRIPT
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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ONLY WECALLED
THELIBERAL
MAJORITY.
Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a weekbefore we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanationfor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7
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Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all threelevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadianpublic affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots ofpublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberalgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoralelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majoritygovernment in the 2015 federal election.
CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITEmainstreetresearch.ca
TWITTER@MainStResearch
FACEBOOKfb.com/mainstresearch