Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31

8/18/2019 Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mainstreet-poll-manitoba-march-31 1/16

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,860 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR™ on March 29th, 2016. A mixture of landlines

cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.27%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.07%; ReManitoba: +/-3.4%; ; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Ce

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, MARCH 31st, 2016PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK

MANITOBA ELECTION



PCs GAIN IN WINNIPEG

March 31, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC party picking up suppoWinnipeg as the number of undecided voters drops. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of e

of +/- 2.27%, 19 times out of 20.

Following the Easter weekend it’s the PC party that seems to have gained momentum” said Quito Ma

President of Mainstreet Research. “The PCs are now leading definitively in Winnipeg. While their leveupport has dropped outside Winnipeg they hold such a large lead it almost doesn’t matter. If the PCs

hold onto these numbers the NDP and Liberals will find themselves virtually wiped out.”

Among Decided and Leaning Voters (province wide): PCs 45% (+1%), NDP 23% (-1%), Liberals 24%

Greens 7% (-)

In Winnipeg the PCs hold a 13% among decided and leaning voters” continued Maggi. “Support is be

plit by the NDP and Liberals, it’s the perfect storm.”

When we look at party support strength the PCs are leading there as well with the vast majority of t

upporters reporting they will not change their minds. Among second ballot preference for voters wmight switch their ballots it‘s the Liberals who come out on top if there is slippage for the PCs or NDP. PCs are essentially tied as the second choice of Liberal supporters, essentially a wash.”

The last opportunity for the NDP and Liberals is now the televised debate. After weeks of campaignBrian Pallister and the PC Party have not made any significant mistakes. The televised leaders’ debate

kely be the last best opportunity to turn this campaign around,” he finished.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three level

government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in Br

Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected]

For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.



If the provincial electionwere held today,which party

would you support? (Manitoba)

UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green

0

5

0

5

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29




would you support? (Winnipeg)


0

5

0

5

20

25

30

35





would you support? (Rest of Manitoba)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55





would you support?

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Sample

Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Sample

PC

18%

36%

18%

6%

22%

1,860

22%

33%

19%

5%

21%

1,021

12%

42%

17%

6%

23%

839

15%

26%

28%

10%

21%

220

20%

38%

14%

4%

25%

391

18%

43%

14%

5%

20%

572

19%

42%

15%

3%

21%

677

19%

38%

17%

8%

18%

869

16%

35%

20%

3%

26%

991



And which party are youleaning towards voting for?

[Undecided Only]


9%

11%

12%

6%

62%




would you support?

DECIDED & LEANING

DECIDED ONLY

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55




DECIDED AND LEANINGWINNIPEG

NDP PC Liberal Green

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

NDP PC MLP GP

2 7 %

4 0 %

2 5 %

8 %



DECIDED AND LEANINGREST OF MANITOBA

NDP PC Liberal Green

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

5

0

5

0

NDP PC MLP GP

1 5 %

5 3 %

2 2 %

9 %




would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]

PC

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB

20%

32%

35%

13%

184

25%

46%

21%

8%

325

23%

53%

18%

6%

499

24%

52%

20%

4%

561

22%

44%

22%

11%

759

24%

45%

26%

5%

810

23%

45%

24%

8%

1,569

27%

40%

25%

8%

836

15%

53%

22%

9%

733

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Sample

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Sample



Support Strength

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

76%16%8%

PC

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

60%29%12%

NDP

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

59%28%12%

Liberals



Second Choice

Liberal Voters Green Party Voters

NDP VotersPC Voters

23%

37%

9%

31%

14%

52%

17%

17%

34%

31%

15%

20%

9%

9%

44%

38%



If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari

Green Party led James BeddomeUndecided

And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

SCRIPT



ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015



Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber

government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major

government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

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Mainstreet poll, Manitoba March 31