Mad Max, Star Trek, Big Brother, or Ecotopia: The Role of ...stephanopoulos-symposium.mit.edu/wp-content/...Mad Max, Star Trek, Big Brother, or Ecotopia: The Role of PSE in Enabling

Mad Max, Star Trek, Big Brother, or Ecotopia:The Role of PSE in Enabling Future Scenarios

Bhavik R. Bakshi

William G. Lowrie Department of Chemical and Biomolecular EngineeringThe Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA

2040 Visions of Process Systems EngineeringA Symposium on the Occasion of George Stephanopoulos’s 70th Birthday and Retirement

from MIT, June 1-2, 2017

2040 Visions of PSE 1 / 22

Alternate Worldviews: Technological Optimist

Technological Optimist

• Technology will find solutions to all problems facing humanity• No resource constraints• No environmental challenges

• Innovation and progress are encouraged by competition• The free market, as practiced today, is able to find appropriate

solutions and is the guiding principle

• Current engineering paradigm of dominating and controlling natureis appropriate

Costanza, Ecology and Society, 2000


Alternate Worldviews: Technological Skeptic

Technological Skeptic

• Technological breakthroughs may never happen or may not happensoon enough to avoid many negative impacts

• There are fundamental limits that cannot be overcome by humaningenuity

• Relies on human cooperation to devise goals and markets as oneoption for achieving the goals

• Current engineering paradigm needs to shift toward respectingnature by working within its limits

Optimist or Skeptic?

• Which worldview should we adopt now for a better future?

• What role can PSE play in either worldview?


Alternate Worldviews: Technological Skeptic

Technological Skeptic

• Technological breakthroughs may never happen or may not happensoon enough to avoid many negative impacts

• There are fundamental limits that cannot be overcome by humaningenuity

• Relies on human cooperation to devise goals and markets as oneoption for achieving the goals

• Current engineering paradigm needs to shift toward respectingnature by working within its limits

Optimist or Skeptic?

• Which worldview should we adopt now for a better future?

• What role can PSE play in either worldview?


A Star Trek Future

If we adopt the technological optimist worldview, and it turns out to becorrect =⇒ STAR TREK

• No limits to resources

• Population keeps increasing

• We colonize outer space


A Star Trek Future






A Star Trek Future






A Star Trek Future





Visions of PSE

• PSE will enable automation, manufacturing in and of space colonies,geoengineering the climate, personalized medicine

• We may already be on this path

This is a sustainable outcome


A Star Trek Future





Visions of PSE





A Star Trek Future





Visions of PSE





A Mad Max Future

If we adopt the technological optimist worldview, and it turns out to beincorrect =⇒ MAD MAX

• Resource depletion

• Ecological degradation

• Societal collapse


A Mad Max Future






A Mad Max Future






A Mad Max Future





Visions of PSE

• May need to rediscover PSE of the past!

This is an unsustainable outcome


A Mad Max Future





Visions of PSE

• May need to rediscover PSE of the past!

This is an unsustainable outcome


An Ecotopia Future

If we adopt the technological skeptic worldview, and it turns out to becorrect =⇒ ECOTOPIA

• Population stablizes

• Rampant consumerism is reined in

• Our activities stay within planetary boundaries

• Engineering respects and learns from nature


An Ecotopia Future







An Ecotopia Future

If we adopt the technological skeptic worldview, and it turns out to becorrect =⇒ ECOTOPIA• Population stablizes• Rampant consumerism is reined in• Our activities stay within planetary boundaries• Engineering respects and learns from nature


An Ecotopia Future






Visions of PSE

• PSE expands to include ecosystems within its system boundary


• Manufacturing operates with “net positive impact”



An Ecotopia Future






Visions of PSE

• PSE expands to include ecosystems within its system boundary


• Manufacturing operates with “net positive impact”



A Big Brother Future

If we adopt the technological skeptic worldview and it turns out to beincorrect =⇒ BIG BROTHER

• Government regulation is excessive

• Environmental taxes are unnecessary

• Respecting nature’s limits is constraining

• Economic growth is slower than it could have been





























Visions of PSE

• PSE will be needed to move toward the Star Trek future









Visions of PSE

• PSE will be needed to move toward the Star Trek future



Which is the Appropriate World View?

• The technological skeptic world view is a safer bet

• 2040 Visions of PSE for the technological skeptic• Shift engineering paradigm to respect and learn from nature• Expand engineering to include ecosystems within its system boundary• Operate manufacturing with “net positive impact”



Current World View & Policies

Real State of the World

TechnologicalOptimist

Optimists right

Skepticsright








Optimists right

Skepticsright

Star Trek








Optimists right

Skepticsright

Star Trek Mad Max








TechnologicalSkeptic

Optimists right

Skepticsright

Star Trek Mad Max

EcotopiaBig Brother









Optimists right

Skepticsright

Star Trek Mad Max

EcotopiaBig Brother









Optimists right

Skepticsright

Star Trek Mad Max

EcotopiaBig Brother




Toward Techno-Ecological Synergy

TechnologicalSystems

Products

Pollutants

Raw Materials

Wastes

• Eco-efficiency, life cycle design

• Circular economy, industrial symbiosis, byproduct synergy• Techno-ecological synergy• Sustainable TES

Bakshi, Ziv, Lepech, Env. Sci. Technol., 2015




Products

Pollutants

Raw Materials

WastesWasteConversion

• Eco-efficiency, life cycle design• Circular economy, industrial symbiosis, byproduct synergy

• Techno-ecological synergy• Sustainable TES





EcologicalSystems

Products

Pollutants

Raw MaterialsCo-benefits

Capital &Management

Wastes

EcologicalInputs

WasteConversion

NaturalResources

• Eco-efficiency, life cycle design• Circular economy, industrial symbiosis, byproduct synergy• Techno-ecological synergy

• Sustainable TES





EcologicalSystems

Products

Co-benefits

Capital &Management

Wastes

EcologicalInputs

WasteConversion

NaturalResources

• Eco-efficiency, life cycle design• Circular economy, industrial symbiosis, byproduct synergy• Techno-ecological synergy• Sustainable TES



Process Design with Ecosystems as Unit Operations

Feed StreamSoybeans

Miscella

Counter2currentKextractor

Coalescer

ScrewKpress

OilKphase

EvaporatorK2stripper

Condenser

Rectificationcolumn

Hexanephase

DT1DC

Methanol

KOH

SoybeanOil

Water

HBPOk

KBPOk

Transesterificationreactor Methanol

distillationK Waterwashing

Neutralizationreactor

GlyceroldistillationK

FAMEdistillationK

Methanol1Water

Glycerol

FAME

Oil

WetlandKecosystem

ForestKecosystem

CO&AKPMI0AKOB

InfluentKwaterstream EffluentK

stream

Coal

CoalKCHPKsteamK4Kelectricity

Baghousefilter

WetKFGD

Ammonia

SCR

Ash

StackKemissionsKNCO&AKSO&AKPMI0AKNO&z

ElectricityKandKsteam

StackKemissionsKNCO&AKSO&AKPMI0AKNO&z

Do local ecosystems have enough capacity to supply goods and servicesto biodiesel manufacturing?


Biodiesel Manufacturing Site

Gopalakrishnan, Bakshi, Ziv, AIChE J., 2016


TES Design of Biodiesel Process with Wetlands

Net WaterSupply(kg/yr)

-8.0e+6 -4.0e+6 0

-5.5e+6

-5.0e+6

-4.5e+6

-4.0e+6

Innovative designs

FeasibleDesigns

End of pipedesign

With anaerobicbaffledreactor

Annualized NPV ($)



-8.0e+6 -4.0e+6 0

-5.5e+6

-5.0e+6

-4.5e+6

-4.0e+6

End of pipedesign

With treatmentwetlandWith

anaerobicbaffledreactor

Annualized NPV ($)




-8.0e+6 -4.0e+6 0

-5.5e+6

-5.0e+6

-4.5e+6

-4.0e+6

End of pipedesign

Integrateddesign

Annualized NPV ($)



TES Design with Water Recycle

-5.0e+6

-4.5e+6

-4.0e+6

-5.5e+6

-1.5e+6

-1.0e+6

-0.5e+6

0

-8.0e+6-1.2e+7 -4.0e+6 0

Annualized NPV ($)


End of pipedesign

Integrateddesign

Integrated wetland

Integrated ABRwith waterrecycle

• Integrated design ofbiodiesel process withwetlands and feedbackof water results in new“win-win” designs

• Including vegetationalong with wetlandsresults in furtherimprovement


TES Across the United States: Air Quality Regulation

Fraction of SO2 captured

> 100% 75-100%

50-75% 25-50% 0-25%

• Fraction of SO2 emissions taken up by current vegetation

• Vegetation can capture significant fraction of air emissions• Ecosystem restoration is less expensive than technology for majority

of counties• Can identify sectors that are “low hanging fruit” for policy makers



Sustainability Index

Local sustainabilityN/A -1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0

Demand:13,747 MT/yr

Current supply:1543 MT/yr

Additional supply:1335 MT/yr

NO2

Demand:5330 MT/yr



PM2.5

Demand:5775 MT/yr



SO2

Current Potential


Demand:18,450 MT/yr


PM10

• Fraction of SO2 emissions taken up by current vegetation• Vegetation can capture significant fraction of air emissions• Ecosystem restoration is less expensive than technology for majority




Restoration cost > equipment cost

Restoration cost < equipment cost

N/A

• Fraction of SO2 emissions taken up by current vegetation• Vegetation can capture significant fraction of air emissions• Ecosystem restoration is less expensive than technology for majority




Restoration cost > equipment cost

Restoration cost < equipment cost

N/A

• Fraction of SO2 emissions taken up by current vegetation

• Vegetation can capture significant fraction of air emissions• Ecosystem restoration is less expensive than technology for majority



Dynamics and Control of TES

Manufac-turingSystem

Wastetreatmenttechnology

Forest

Wetland

Products

Byproducts

WasteRawMaterials

RecycledWater

Biofuel


Dynamics and Control of TES

Manufac-turing

System

Wastetreatmenttechnology

FeedbackControl

Data Analysis

Sensors

Sensors

Forest

Wetland

Products

Byproducts

WasteRawMaterials

RecycledWater

Biofuel


TES at Multiple Scales

Process

Equipment

Supply Chain

Enterprise

mm m km Mms

h

day

month

year

decade



Process

Life Cycle

Economy

Equipment

Supply Chain

Enterprise

mm m km Mms

h

day

month

year

decade



Process

Life Cycle

Economy

Equipment

Supply Chain

Enterprise

mm m km Mms

h

day

month

year

decade

Site

Organism

Regions

Regions

Nation

Campus


Challenges Across Disciplines

Engineering

• Shifting paradigms is not easy

• Engineers have low ecological literacy

Economics and Policy

• Economics also takes nature for granted

• Trading schemes and taxes need to be devised and implemented

• Policies need to acknowledge role of ecosystems

Human Attitude and Behavior

• Consider socio-ecological-technological system

2040 Vision of PSE

PSE enables engineering that functions in synergy with nature



Engineering









2040 Vision of PSE




Engineering









2040 Vision of PSE




Engineering









2040 Vision of PSE



Salute to my Guru

Guru is verily the representative ofBrahma, Vishnu, Shiva.

He creates, sustains knowledge, anddestroys the weeds of ignorance.

I salute such a Guru.

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/497858933788145694/


Salute to my Guru

Guru is verily the representative ofBrahma, Vishnu, Shiva.

He creates, sustains knowledge, anddestroys the weeds of ignorance.

I salute such a Guru.

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/497858933788145694/


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Mad Max, Star Trek, Big Brother, or Ecotopia: The Role of ...stephanopoulos-symposium.mit.edu/wp-content/...Mad Max, Star Trek, Big Brother, or Ecotopia: The Role of PSE in Enabling