Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data

8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data

1/15

MACROECONOMIC SITUATION OF

NEPAL

(Based on Annual Data of FY 20!"2#

Se$te%&e' 20!)

*at+%andu Ne$al


2/15

Mone, Su$$l,

The broad money supply (M2)

increased by 3.8 percent in the first

five months of FY 20!"# in

comparison to increase of $.%

percent in the correspondin& period

of the previous year 'hereas the

narro' money supply (M) decreased

by 0. percent in comparison to

decrease of %.8 percent in the

correspondin& period of previous

year.

M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)0

4

8

12

16

20

24

!1!!11

!

!1

3'o4t+ -n Mone, Su$$l,

B'oad Mone, (M2# Na''o4 Mone, (M!#

n other hand the hi&her &ro'th in inflo's of remittance and decelerated imports has led to

e*pansion of the net forei&n assets in the revie' period. n revie' period the +F, increased by

-s. !!.8# billion till mid/uly 20# that had increased by -s. 2$.3 billion in correspondin&

period of the previous FY. n percenta&e terms the +F, increased by 2!.2 this period a&ainst

an increase of 2$.2 in the previous year.

Do%est-5 C'ed-t


3/15

The increase in net claims on the

private sector and the financial

institutions has resulted in the &ro'th of

domestic credit. The domestic credit

has increased by !.1 durin& the

revie' period in comparison to 2.$

increase in the previous fiscal year.

imilarly the claims on the private

sector increased by 1.! as a&ainst

increase of 8.3 in the previous year.

n other hand the reserve money rose

by !.3 durin& the revie' period.uch reserve money had increased by

23.3 in the previous FY.

M-d./ul, 20!

M-d./ul, 20!)

0 ) !0 !) 20 2)

!2

!1

!67

!1

Do%est-5 C'ed-t S-tuat-on

Do%est-5 C'ed-t

Cla-%s on P'-8ate Se5to'

De$os-t Mo&-l-9at-on and C'ed-t Flo4s of F-nan5-al

Inst-tut-onsn a year on year basis the deposit mobili4ation of 5Fs increased by 20. or -s. 282.0%

billion in the revie' period. uch deposits had &ro'n by 8.! or -s. 28.%8 billion durin& the

correspondin& period of the previous FY. The deposit mobili4ation of the 6ommercial 5an7s

and evelopment 5an7s has increased by 2.! and #.2 respectively 'hereas the deposit

mobili4ation of the Finance 6ompanies decreased by 0.% durin& the revie' period. uch

deposit had increased by $.8 21. and #.$ respectively for 6ommercial 5an7s

evelopment 5an7s and Finance 6ompanies.

M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

!620!

3'o4t+ -n De$os-t Mo&-l-9at-on (:#

C o % % e ' 5 - a l

B a n

; s

D e 8 e

l o $ %

e n t B

a n ; s

F - n a

n 5 e C o

% $ a

n - e s

-505

1015202530

35

!6

21!

)

2!

)2

-0.6

C'ed-t 3'o4t+ of BFIs (:#

M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)

2


4/15

9oans and advances of 5Fs increased by $.# percent (-s. 221.30 billion) in the revie' year

compared to a &ro'th of !.! percent (-s. %#.!8 billion) in the previous year. n the revie'

period loans and advances of 6ommercial 5an7s evelopment 5an7s and Finance

6ompanies increased by 8.8 percent 3.# percent and 0.3 percent respectively.

C o m

m e r c i a l

B a n k s

D e v

e l o p

m e n

t B a n k s

F i n a n

c e C o m

p a n i e s

02468

1012141618

20 !66

!7)

07

'ed-t 3'o4t+ of BFIs (:# t-ll %-d./ul, 20!

M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)

0

50

100

150

200

250

!

C'ed-t >o4s f'o% BFIs

C'ed-t >o4s to $'-8ate se5to'

9i7e'ise credit to the private sector from 5Fs increased by 1.8 percent (-s. 22.% billion) in

the revie' year compared to an increase of 8.$ percent (-s. $%.! billion) in the previous

year. n the revie' year private sector credit from 6ommercial 5an7s evelopment 5an7s and

Finance 6ompanies increased by 22 percent % percent and 0.! percent respectively.

5Fs: credit e*posure to the industrial production construction 'holesale and retail trade

sho's a remar7able &ro'th in the revie' year. 6redit to the industrial production sector

increased by -s. 32.81 billion (!.8 percent) in the revie' year compared to an increase of -s.

32.0 billion (%.8 percent) in the previous year. 9i7e'ise credit to the construction sector

increased by -s. 33.3 billion (2$.1 percent) the 'holesale and retail trade sector by -s. #3.23

billion (2.8 percent) and the transportation communication and public service sector by -s.

2.$# billion (2$.0 percent) durin& the revie' year.

3


5/15

The credit to the construction

sector 'holesale and retail trade

sector and transportation

communication and public service

sector had increased by -s. 23.!1

billion (2!.# percent) -s. !#.1!

billion (23.2 percent) and -s. 3.!#

billion ($.1 percent) respectively in

the previous year. n the revie'

year credit to the a&riculture

sector increased by -s. !.2#

billion (28.0 percent) compared toan increase of -s. .3 billion

(28.0 percent) in the previous year.

I n d u

s t ' - a

l S e 5

t o '

C o n s t ' u

5 t - o n S e

5 t o '

A ? ' - 5

u l t u ' e

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

!


6/15

M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

200<

7

!!0<

22ei&hted avera&e interest rate spread of commercial ban7s inched do'n

to !.% percent in the revie' month from #.2 percent a year a&o and the avera&e base rate

came do'n to $.88 percent from 8.3% percent a year a&o.

Se5u'-t-es Ma';et Nat-onal a?e Sala', and In>at-on

+?@? inde* decreased by $.2 percent to

1%.2 points in mid/uly 20#. The inde* had

increased by 11.1 percent to 03%. points a

year a&o. The stoc7 mar7et capitali4ation

decreased by %.! percent to -s. 181.!0 billion

in mid/uly 20#. The ratio of mar7et

capitali4ation to A@ stood at !%.% percent in

mid/uly 20# compared to #!.! percent a

year a&o.

M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56)


7/15

f the total mar7et capitali4ation as of mid/uly 20# the share of 5an7s and Financial

nstitutions (includin& insurance companies) stood at $$.$ percent. Bydropo'er manufacturin&

and processin& companies hotels tradin& and others recorded a share of $.0 percent 3.0

percent 2.# percent 0. percent and 1.% percent respectively.

BFIs (-n5lud-n? -nsu'an5e 5o%$an-es# 6:

Manuacturin! an" #rocessin!$ 3%

&'"ropo(er$ )%

&otels$ 3%

Ot+e's !0:

S+a'e on Ma';et Ca$-tal-9at-on (:#

Total number of companies listed at the

+?@? decreased from 23$ in mid/uly

20! to 232 in mid/uly 20#. Mer&er of

some ban7 and financial institutions durin&

this period resulted in a decline in the

number of listed companies. f the total

listed companies the number of ban7s and

financial institutions (includin& insurance

companies) stood at 18 follo'ed by

production and processin& industries (8)hotels (!) business entities (!)

hydropo'er (%) and other companies (2).

BFIs (-n5lud-n? -nsu'an5e 5o%$an-es#

Manufa5tu'-n? and P'o5ess-n?

Bus-ness Ent-t-es

,d'o$o4e'

otels

Ot+e's

0 100 200 300

!16

!6

<

2

Nu%&e's of L-sted Co%$an-es

%


8/15

The annual avera&e consumer price

inflation increased by $.2 percent in

20!"# compared to an increase of 1.

percent in 203"!. The inflation remained

belo' the 8.0 percent proat-on (:#

-ll, Re?-ons Te'a-

*at+%andu alle,

The annual avera&e price indices of a&ricultural commodities domestic manufactured

commodities and imported commodities increased by 8.8 percent #.% percent and 0.$ percent

respectively in the revie' year compared to the &ro'th of .3 percent %.0 percent and !.2

percent in the previous year. The annual avera&e salary and 'a&e rate inde* increased by 8.!

percent in 20!"# 'hereas it had increased by 3.$ percent in the previous year. n the revie'

year both the annual avera&e salary inde* and the annual avera&e 'a&e rate inde* rose by the

same rate of 8.! percent compared to an increase of 2#.! percent and . percent

respectively in the previous year. n the revie' year the 'a&e rate inde* of construction

laborers industrial laborers and a&ricultural laborers have increased by 2.1 percent 8.3

percent and $.$ percent respectively.

3o8e'n%ent Bud?et E$end-tu'e and Re8enue

$


9/15

n 20!"# revenue mobili4ation of the Aovernment of +epal (Ao+) increased by 3.8 percent

to -s. !0#.8# billion 'hich 'as 1%.0 percent of annual bud&et estimate of -s. !22.10 billion.

The revenue had risen by 20.# percent to -s. 3#%.%2 billion in 203"!. espite the slo'do'n

in economic activities after ,pril earth;ua7e and the deceleration of imports revenue to A@

ratio stood at 1. percent in the revie' year. uch ratio 'as 8.! percent in 203"!. f the

total revenue mobili4ation D,T revenue &re' by .3 percent to -s. 2.#2 billion in 20!"#.

M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

7)


10/15

Aovernment e*penditure on cash basis

increased by 1.8 percent to -s. !11.1%

billion in 20!"# compared to an increase

of %.3 percent to -s. !$.!$ billion in

203"!. ,n increase in recurrent and

capital e*penditure contributed to such a

&ro'th of total e*penditure durin& the

revie' year. urin& the revie' year

recurrent e*penditure increased by 0.1

percent to -s. 328.18 billion compared to a

&ro'th of 2.$ percent in the precedin&

year.

Re5u''ent E$end-tu'e

Ca$-tal E$end-tu'e

F-nan5-al E$end-tu'e

0 100 200 300 400

328.8


11/15

to -s. 1.11 billion in the previous year. The total e*ports decreased due to a fall in e*ports to

ndia 6hina and other countries. ?*ports to ndia dropped by %.3 percent durin& the revie'

year in contrast to an increase of %.1 percent in the previous year. ?*ports to ndia decreased

mainly due to the decrease in the e*ports of 4inc sheet te*tiles cardamom copper 'ire rod

amon& others. imilarly e*ports to 6hina decreased by 2.# percent in the revie' year in

contrast to an increase of 3%.2 percent in the previous year. This decrease is mainly attributed

to the decrease in the e*ports of 'heat flour handicraft &oods a&arbatti pashmina amon&

others. imilarly e*ports to other countries decreased by $.8 percent in the revie' year in

contrast to an increase of 23.1 percent in the previous year.

M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

)00

800

00

1!11 6)72

!7


12/15

amon& others. 9i7e'ise imports from 6hina increased sharply by 3%.% percent in the revie'

year compared to a &ro'th of $.! percent in the previous year. mports from 6hina increased

due to the increase in the imports of telecommunication e;uipments and parts machinery and

parts chemical fertili4er electrical e;uipments amon& others. imilarly imports from other

countries increased by 2. percent in the revie' year compared to a &ro'th of 28.2 percent in

the previous year. mports from other countries rose mainly due to an increase in the imports of

helicopter"aircraft and spare parts silver medicine crude palm oil amon& others. n = dollar

terms imports from 6hina increased by 3!.1 percent to = .0 billion in the revie' year

compared to an increase of #.2 percent durin& the previous year.

Ind-a C+-na Ot+e's

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

702

!

262

21

7


13/15

M a l a , s - a

S a u d

- A ' a & - a

* u 4 a - t

O t + e

' s

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

202626

!27


14/15

The forei&n e*chan&e reserve of +-5 increased by 22.8 percent to -s. $02.88 billion at mid

/uly 20# compared to -s. #$2.!0 billion as of mid/uly 20!. The forei&n e*chan&e reserve of

5an7s and Financial nstitutions (e*cept +-5) increased by 30. percent at mid/uly 20# to

-s. 2.00 billion compared to -s. 13.0 billion as of mid/uly 20!. The &ross forei&n

e*chan&e reserves increased by 23.8 percent to -s. 823.8$ billion in mid/uly 20# from -s.

%%#.! billion as of mid/uly 20!. uch reserves had increased by 2!.8 percent in the previous

year. The &ross forei&n e*chan&e reserves in = dollar terms increased by $.! percent to

= 8.# billion in mid/uly 20#. uch reserves had increased by 23.% percent in the previous

year. urin& the revie' year the ndian currency reserve increased by 2%.$ percent to -s

20.28 billion. uch reserves had increased by 2$.! percent in the previous year. 9i7e'ise

convertible forei&n e*chan&e increased by %.% percent to = %.2! billion in the revie' year

'hich 'as increased by 22.1 percent in the previous year.n addition the nternational nvestment @osition (@) sho's that the forei&n assets of +epal

are -s. 8!$.%% billion and the liabilities are -s. !8$.32 billion at mid/uly 20#. ,ccordin&ly the

net @ remained in surplus by -s. 3%0.3# billon 'hich 'as in surplus by -s. 20!.03 billion as

at mid/uly 20!.

Price of il and !old in the International "ar#et and Exchange Rate "ovement

The price of oil (6rude il 5rent) in the international mar7et decreased sharply by !#.3 percent

to = #$.3 per barrel in mid/uly 20# from = 0!.$3 per barrel a year a&o. The

decrease in the price of petroleum product is attributed to the decrease in the demand of the

petroleum products in /apan 6hina and ?uro area coupled 'ith constant production by the

@?6 and increase in production by the =,. imilarly the price of &old declined by 2.%

percent to = !!.!0 per ounce from = 30.00 per ounce a year a&o. +epalese

currency visvis the = dollar depreciated by #.2 percent in mid/uly 20# from the level of

mid/uly 20!. t had depreciated by 0.1 percent in the previous year. The e*chan&e rate per

= dollar remained -s. 0.! in mid/uly 20# compared to -s. 1#.10 in mid/uly 20!.

3


15/15

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Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data