Upload
trinhhanh
View
251
Download
3
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Deutsch-Portugiesische Industrie- und HandelskammerCâmara de Comércio e Indústria Luso-Alemã
Macroeconomic perspective for Angola
Gustavo Lopes da Silva,Partner
Lisbon, 15th November 2010
2Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx© 2010 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Content Page
A. Roland Berger experience 3
B. Country macroeconomic perspectives 6
C. Recommendations for investing in Angola 15
3Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
A. Roland Berger experience
4Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Our profile
Founded in 1967 in Germany by Roland Berger
41 offices in 29 countries, with approx. 2,000 employees
180 RB Partners currently serving approximately
1,000 international clients
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants is a truly global firm –We provide strategic advice to the world's top decision makers
Presence in 4 continents – Europe, America, Asia and Africa
Source: Roland Berger analysis
5Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Roland Berger is deeply involved with the Angolan market, supporting key players in several industries
INDUSTRY TOPICS
Source: Roland Berger analysis
> AVIATION
> CEMENT
> CONSTRUCTION
> TOURISM
> OIL & GAS
> Market entry strategy
> Building local partnerships
> Business Valuation
> Development strategy
> Governance and organization
6Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
B. Country macroeconomic perspectives
7Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
0,7
Angola is located in sub-saharan Africa and has borders with Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Zambia and Namibia
Luanda 4,5
0,5 Uige
0,7 Malange
1,0Huambo
1,2 Kuito
0,8 Lubango
Benguela
0,1 Namibe
Estimated city population [2009; M]
0,2 Luena
Source: Angola Global; Press; Roland Berger analysis
200 km
Angola – key facts
Namibia
Congo
Botswana
South Africa
Angola ZambiaZimbabwe
Mozambique
Dem. Rep. Congo
> Capital: Luanda
> Area: 1,25 million km2
(3,5x Germany)
> Population: 18,5 M
> GDP09: $81,4 Bn
> OPEC member since early 2007
> SADC member
8Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Angola has been experiencing tremendous economic growth, which is expected to continue going forward
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; Roland Berger analysis
Angola – historical GDP growth and forecasts [2005-2014; % yoy]
7,2%7,8%9,5%6,2%
9,4%
-0,5%
11,7%
21,1%18,6%
20,6%
2005 2006 2007 20132012 20142008 20102009 2011
> Real GDP is expectedto reach $191,6 Bn in2014, 1,3x currentPortuguese GDP and8,6% of currentGerman GDP
> World GDP CAGR11-14is 2,9%
> Sub-saharan AfricaGDP CAGR11-14 is5,0%
CAGR05-10: 11,8% CAGR11-14: 8,2%historical estimate
Presidential elections
Oil pricesand production
9Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Despite a strong decrease in the dependence of Oil & Gas, Angola is still in the early stages of development
Source: Angola Ministry of Finance; Economist Intelligence Unit; Roland Berger analysis
GDP breakdown by industry / economic sector ($ Bn)
23%
17% 12%7% 9%
9%7%2%
Commerce
Agriculture, forestryand fishing
Services (telco, banking)ConstructionManufacturingOther
2009
81,4
40%
8%1%
2006
45,2
56%
4%5%
Angola is still in the early stages ofdevelopment…
> … with construction doubling itsweight in the GDP
> …with agriculture, forestry andfishing gaining significant share
> … with tertiary services growingin line with overall economic growth
… having strong growth potential
$25,2 Bn$32,8 Bn
Oil & Gas
-5,1%
+9,2%
+34,7%
+42,8%+21,7%+48,8%+40,9%
CAGR06-09
10Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Angola ranks #18 in proven oil reserves – oil production is expected to continue stable after an initial growth period
Source: Angola Ministry of Finance; Economist Intelligence Unit; Roland Berger analysis
Oil environment in AngolaPROVEN OIL RESERVES(2010; Bn bbl)
OIL PRODUCTION('000 bpd)
77
AngolaAzerbaijan
…Kuwait
AlgeriaMexico
138IranIraq
262Saudi ArabiaCanada 175
Norway
115104
121010
RANK
#1#2#3#4#5
#16#17#18#19#20
2.1502.1252.1052.0351.9501.8351.8991.820
1.421
878
20072006 2009 20112008 20102005 2012 2013
+44%
2014
+2%
OPEC member
11Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
China, USA and Brasil are now key trading partners – imports and exports are expected to grow ~ 15% annually until 2014
Note: Consumer goods are goods that are ready to be consumed (such as clothes and food); Capital goods are goods that are used as capital in the productiveprocess (such as plant machinery); Intermediate goods are goods that still need to be transformed in order to become consumer goods (such as clinker)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; Roland Berger analysis
Characterization of key economic foreign flows
17,1%
15,2%
Brazil
11,0%
10,2%
USA
China
Portugal
IMPORTS(2008; % of total)
EXPORTS(2008; % of total)
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT(2009; $ Bn)
CAGR11-14: 15,3% CAGR11-14: 14,4% Inward FDI CAGR11-14: 3,8%
6,77,8
Outward flow
Inwardflow
Net FDI flow
-1,2
Current FDI stock represents90,5% of GDP
Intermediate goods
Consumer goods 61,6%
27,3%Capital goods
11,1%
South Africa 4,5%
France 6,0%
USA 28,7%
China 32,9%
2,1%Others
Diamonds 1,8%
Crude oil 96,1%
12Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Construction and Oil & Gas companies from China and Brazil are already present in Angola
1) Estimate
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; Roland Berger analysis
Relationship with key foreign countries
0,5
1,4
1,8Brazil
China 4-111)
Portugal
Germany
CREDIT LINE ($ Bn; 2009) KEY FOREIGN COMPANIES – NON EXAUSTIVE
CONSTRUCTIONAND BUILDINGMATERIALS
OIL & GAS
SERVICES
13Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Macroeconomic outlook is expected to be stable with a reduction of foreign debt with oil proceeds
1) Government is responsible for the price policy in Mozambique
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; Roland Berger analysis
Evolution of key macroeconomic indicatorsEXCHANGE RATE (Kz:US$) CONSUMER PRICES INCREASE FOREIGN DEBT (% of GDP)
908888899279
2014201220102009
13%12%13%13%13%14%
2014201220102009
10%12%14%17%20%18%
2014201220102009
Recovery of oil prices will allow the BNA to re-establish the peg to
the US$
Strong increases in consumer prices are expected, but at a fairly
constant rythm
Oil proceeds are expected to be in part used to decrease
dependency on foreign debt
SOUTH AFRICA09: 7,1%BOTSWANA09: 8,1%NAMIBIA09: 8,1%MOZAMBIQUE09: 3,3%1)
SOUTH AFRICA09: 25,7%BOTSWANA09: 14,2%NAMIBIA09: 8,8%MOZAMBIQUE09: 42,3%
14Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
The Government of Angola wants to have an active role in the economic development of the country
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; Roland Berger analysis
Expected developments for the business environment in Angola> There has been an effort from the Angolan Government to channel oil funds to productive
investment areas (100.000 bpd) and foster private enterprise and competition –examples are the planned Banco de Desenvolvimento de Angola (BDA) and Bolsa de Valores de Angola, Luanda's stock exchange
PRIVATEENTERPRISEANDCOMPETITION
FUNDING
LABOR MARKET
SOCIAL INTERVENTION
> Angola is trying to diversify funding sources, decreasing the importance of China and accessing credit from other sources, such as the Paris Club, Brazil, Russia and South Africa
> There is a lack of skilled manual workers and local managers, a gap which is expected to remain or widen in the forthcoming years due to strong economic growth
> Several programs will be launched to foster areas as diverse as agriculture and rural development, social housing ("Uma casa para todos" – 1 million houses planned), urban recovery, infra-structures and the manufacturing industry
15Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
C. Recommendations for investing in Angola
16Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
Angola has a promising macroeconomic outlook but access to foreign investors can be a challenge
Source: Roland Berger analysis
Recommendations for companies investing in Angola
Invest together with local partners or advisors you can trust1Physical presence as a must2
Attention to credit concession and expatriation of capital4When doing business in Angola be an Angolan3
17Macroeconomic perspective Angola v2.pptx
THANK YOU
Gustavo Lopes da SilvaPartner
Rua Castilho, 1652° andar1070-050 Lisboa
Phone +351 21 356 76-00Fax +351 21 352 43-60