MACC: Status and Plans

Over the past year

• Have continued running near-real-time and delayed-mode global streams and near-real-time ensemble regional stream

– and established a range of supplementary products and user interface

– with expansion and distribution of web services

• Global reanalysis (2003-2010) was started in March

– and has reached October 2007

– showing mostly improvements over GEMS reanalysis

• First year of regional reanalysis (2007) completed

– but with varied current assimilation capability among component systems

– using primarily validated in situ observations from the EEA/AirBase

– using also satellite data in one system, with expansion to others planned

Over the past year

• Have continued as a member of the Sentinel 5p MAG (Thépaut)

• Have joined Sentinel-3 MAG (Morcrette)

• Have joined Sentinel-4/5 MAG (Simmons, with Engelen as deputy)

• MAGs include members from other partners in MACC

• Concerns are:

– little progress on issue of aerosol products for atmospheric use from Sentinel 3, coupled with doubts over quality of VIIRS compared to MODIS products

– general lack of clarity over arrangements for Level-2 production

– limited future provision of limb sounding

– priorities for CO2 and aerosol measurement

– absence of a forum (such as GAS IG) for discussing overarching issues

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

AQUA MODIS

TERRA MODIS

Sentinel-3 (OLCI, SLSTR)

Timeline for “operational” satellite missions with aerosol capability

Sentinel-5 (3MI)

Sentinel-5 precursor

NPP (VIIRS)

?

?

60-hour forecast

24-hour forecast

Eyjafjallajökull

ULB/LATMOS

Eyjafjallajökull

MODIS Terra and Aqua Background forecast

Analysis

From run with volcanic source in model

Data assimilation was cycled with no data thinning but with variational quality control

Variational quality control was switched off for the final cycle to force in all observations

Aerosol Optical Depth 12UTC 19 April 2010

Increment

PM10 (μg/m3) Virolahti, Finland120

100

80

60

40

20

0 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

August

Observed

MACC (3h-24h forecasts)

2010 fires over Russia

2m temperature anomaly (C) for July 2010Fire Radiative Power (Wm-2) from SEVIRI and MODIS

ERA-Interim

SRON, Nov 20108

CO total columns from varying systems

MOPITT

TM5-ASSIM (IASI)TM5-Clim

Use of IASI CO from LATMOS was suspended at the time due to

consequences of a data format change by Eumetsat.

Retrospective runs show clearly the added value of IASI

μg/m3

Surface ozone 15UTC 9 July 2010

H+39 MOZART/IFSH+39 EURAD

H+39 CHIMERE

Forecasting European air quality

• Key internal step will be establishment of global system under full ECMWF operational control, planned for May 2011

• Key external step was establishment of GMES Regulation in 2010

• Funding for core atmospheric services is through FP7 until 2014

• Proposal for MACC-II was submitted in November 2010

– some restructuring, more R&D on variational estimation of emissions, …

– provisionally passed evaluation thresholds, with no substantial querying of work programme

– contract negotiation should begin in May 2011

– to run from November 2011 to 3Q 2014

• Funding and governance for sustained operation still to be established

Towards full operations