M S B Recent Major Events Mod Sim

8/3/2019 M S B Recent Major Events Mod Sim

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Some Recent Major Events

and Considerations for Modelling

and Simulation(Invited Paper)

Richard Zobel

Dept. of Computer Engineering

Prince of Songkla University

Phuket

Thailand


2/23

Volcanoes and Modelling

The following slides indicate the enormous variation intime scale, complexity, magnitude and severity ofvolcanoes around the world.

Modelling and simulation of such a wide range of

volcanic activity present a big challenge. Developing and using such models is important in

relation to emergency planning for organising localmeasures to minimise loss of life, injury and damage

to property. Use of data from previous local events and of historicevents associated with similar volcanic activities atother sites can be used to good effect.

The following slides illustrate a number of differentscenarios collected by the author in his travels.


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Volcano, Bali, Indonesia


4/23

Volcano Crater, Bandung, Indonesia


5/23

Nissyros Volcano, Greece


6/23

Taal Lake, Tagatai, Philippines


7/23

Mount Vesuvius, Napoli, Italy

Copyright and Courtesy of Dr. Tom Pfeiffer,Volcanologist and Manager of VolcanoDiscovery and his Colleague Stephen Hunt


8/23

Mount Vesuvius Crater, Italy















Copyright and Courtesy of Dr. Tom Pfeiffer,

Volcanologist and Manager of VolcanoDiscovery and his Colleague Stephen Hunt

Mount Vesuvius Crater, Napoli, Italy



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Eyjafjallajokull Volcano, Iceland

Copyright and Courtesy of Stephen Hunt,

Volcanologist, VolcanoDiscoveryAssociate


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Eyjafjallajokull Volcano, Iceland, Showing Both Craters

Copyright and Courtesy of Stephen Hunt,Volcanologist, VolcanoDiscoveryAssociate


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Eyjafjallajokull Volcano, Iceland, Showing Lava Flow into Glacier

Copyright and Courtesy of Stephen Hunt,Volcanologist, VolcanoDiscoveryAssociate


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Simulation of Very Complex SystemsAs is clear from the previous slides, there is anenormous variation in size, activity, frequency, consequence

and type of volcanic eruption and earthquake.

Consequently, there needs to be a large varietyof models to represent these types.

Classification of such types, their activities and frequency is

necessary to be able to model them and to subsequently predictpossible consequences of eruptions.

Some types give rise to fairly predictable minor activities.Many, like supervolcanoes such as Yellowstone Caldera, do not!

There remains much work to be done to improve the current situation.

An interesting scenario is that of an earthquake swarm as is predicted for the Anatolianregion of Turkey.

Predictions suggest that possibly Istanbul is due next for a major earthquake in the nearfuture.


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Simulation of Earthquake Related Events

Major earthquakes occur around the world at the rate of several every year.

However, they are mainly regional in a confined area, but often result in major

damage and loss of life.

The well recorded and documented Indian Ocean subduction zone earthquake

of December 26, 2004 gave rise to massive damage and loss of life in

Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand.

The following slides illustrate some of the damage done in Phuket, Thailand

and the risks associated with coastal areas subject to earthquakes.

Pre-event simulation of such events can be used to predict the consequences

of tsunami attack of specific amplitude and direction arising from subduction

zone earthquakes. This can allow some protective measures to be put in place.


14/23Tsunami wave, arriving at Phang Nga Beach, Thailand, Dec. 2004


15/23Phuket Beach, Thailand, with Damaged Palms One Year On


16/23Shallow Sea at Risk, EastPhuket, Thailand


17/23Earthquake Area, Samos Greece

Si l ti f V C l


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Simulation of Very ComplexMan Made Systems

Examples of very complex man-made systems include:

Self sustaining fresh water and salt supply for local coastal waters.

A key feature is a complete life cycle including all cyclic routes

A second example is the modelling and simulation of nuclear power plants.

Key features here include:

1. Full approval by IAEA

2. Use for training purposes3. Use for balancing the regular replacement of spent elements

4. Development of simulators for newer types of fast breeder reactors


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Wave Energy System Offshore Wind Energy System

Desalination Plant

Fresh Water High Salinity Water

Sea Water

Naturally Evaporating

Salt Pans

Fresh Water Supply Salt Supply for: Industry, Food,

Roads

Reservoir

Sea Water

Self Sustaining Fresh Water and Salt Supplyfor Local Coastal Waters.

Offshore Wind Energy System

Desalination Plant


Sea Water


Salt Pans

Fresh Water Supply Salt Supply for: Industry, Food,

Roads

Reservoir

Sea Water

Offshore Wind Energy System

Desalination Plant


SeaWater


Salt Pans

Fresh Water Supply Usage Salt Supply Usage for:

Industry, Food, Roads

Reservoir

Sewer

Evaporation


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Original Full-Scope Nuclear Power Plant Simulator Paks, Hungary


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Hungarian Nuclear Power Plant: Digital Operations Control Desk and Displays

Courtesy: Janos Sebestian-Janosy, KFKI, Budapest


22/23

Hungarian Nuclear Power Plant:

Instructors SystemDisplays

Courtesy: Janos Sebestian-Janosy, KFKI, Budapest


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Conclusions

Rare Large Scale Events are Very Difficult to Model and Simulate

However, it is becoming increasingly obvious that this is necessary forthe survival of the Human Race.

Advanced modelling and simulation can minimise death, damage anddestruction.

Future research into systems similar to the tsunami advanced warningsystem with prediction of consequences for specific areas, can be appliedto other disaster scenarios.

The lessons learned from the 2004 tsunami event can be extended into

other areas of the World and to other types of major disaster event. Complex system simulations are valuable for use in system planning and

development and for training purposes, especially for major incidentrecovery.

Documents

M S B Recent Major Events Mod Sim